[CTcard]

I suppose everything's relative.  The general population has more than doubled since I was in high school, and it just feels like the number of class spots in accredited colleges has not increased at the same rate.  More people applying for not as many slots = harder to get in I think.

The general population of the USA was about half of the current population in 1920 mid 1950s. You're a tad older than I had guessed. not necessarily older than I would have guessed.
USA Population History
[Thanks to chrisk for the edit. Memo to self - be careful with arithmetic when past my bedtime.]

The number of 12-17 years olds in the USA hit a peak (a local maximum) in 1974 (near the end of the Baby Boom), slightly surpassed that level for 2004-08, and isn't projected to reach that level again until 2034.
Children in USA
The overall story is that the number of 18 year olds has been surprisingly stable for a surprisingly long period of time. One might conclude that the same number of people competing for roughly the same number of slots equals not that much change in difficulty of getting admitted.

But of course it is more complicated than that.
The fraction of Americans going to college is increasing.
Enrollment Rates   (This chart is a little dated, but you can get the idea).
Some of that increase is towards the lower end of high school achievers as the idea spreads that a high school diploma isn't enough for a decent life. However, particularly among women and minority groups many more simply have college open as a path, thus putting more top end students into the mix. Of course for those groups, getting into an elite college is far easier than before (since it was close to zero probability at one point). For those who've always been in the pool, it's that much harder.

[CTcard]

I suppose everything's relative.  The general population has more than doubled since I was in high school, and it just feels like the number of class spots in accredited colleges has not increased at the same rate.  More people applying for not as many slots = harder to get in I think.

The general population of the USA was about half of the current population in 1920 mid 1950s. You're a tad older than I had guessed. not necessarily older than I would have guessed.
USA Population History
[Thanks to chrisk for the edit. Memo to self - be careful with arithmetic when past my bedtime.]

The number of 12-17 years olds in the USA hit a peak (a local maximum) in 1974 (near the end of the Baby Boom), slightly surpassed that level for 2004-08, and isn't projected to reach that level again until 2034.
Children in USA
The overall story is that the number of 18 year olds has been surprisingly stable for a surprisingly long period of time. One might conclude that the same number of people competing for roughly the same number of slots equals not that much change in difficulty of getting admitted.

But of course it is more complicated than that.
The fraction of Americans going to college is increasing.
Enrollment Rates   (This chart is a little dated, but you can get the idea).
Some of that increase is towards the lower end of high school achievers as the idea spreads that a high school diploma isn't enough for a decent life. However, particularly among women and minority groups many more simply have college open as a path, thus putting more top end students into the mix. Of course for those groups, getting into an elite college is far easier than before (since it was close to zero probability at one point). For those who've always been in the pool, it's that much harder.

[chrisk]

I suppose everything's relative.  The general population has more than doubled since I was in high school, and it just feels like the number of class spots in accredited colleges has not increased at the same rate.  More people applying for not as many slots = harder to get in I think.

The general population of the USA was about half of the current population in 1920. You're a tad older than I had guessed.
USA Population History

The number of 12-17 years olds in the USA hit a peak (a local maximum) in 1974 (near the end of the Baby Boom), slightly surpassed that level for 2004-08, and isn't projected to reach that level again until 2034.
Children in USA
The overall story is that the number of 18 year olds has been surprisingly stable for a surprisingly long period of time. One might conclude that the same number of people competing for roughly the same number of slots equals not that much change in difficulty of getting admitted.

But of course it is more complicated than that.
The fraction of Americans going to college is increasing.
Enrollment Rates   (This chart is a little dated, but you can get the idea).
Some of that increase is towards the lower end of high school achievers as the idea spreads that a high school diploma isn't enough for a decent life. However, particularly among women and minority groups many more simply have college open as a path, thus putting more top end students into the mix. Of course for those groups, getting into an elite college is far easier than before (since it was close to zero probability at one point). For those who've always been in the pool, it's that much harder.

Your calculation of US population growth is off. The current population is about double the population of the mid-1950s, not 1920.

[chrisk]

I suppose everything's relative.  The general population has more than doubled since I was in high school, and it just feels like the number of class spots in accredited colleges has not increased at the same rate.  More people applying for not as many slots = harder to get in I think.

The general population of the USA was about half of the current population in 1920. You're a tad older than I had guessed.
USA Population History

The number of 12-17 years olds in the USA hit a peak (a local maximum) in 1974 (near the end of the Baby Boom), slightly surpassed that level for 2004-08, and isn't projected to reach that level again until 2034.
Children in USA
The overall story is that the number of 18 year olds has been surprisingly stable for a surprisingly long period of time. One might conclude that the same number of people competing for roughly the same number of slots equals not that much change in difficulty of getting admitted.

But of course it is more complicated than that.
The fraction of Americans going to college is increasing.
Enrollment Rates   (This chart is a little dated, but you can get the idea).
Some of that increase is towards the lower end of high school achievers as the idea spreads that a high school diploma isn't enough for a decent life. However, particularly among women and minority groups many more simply have college open as a path, thus putting more top end students into the mix. Of course for those groups, getting into an elite college is far easier than before (since it was close to zero probability at one point). For those who've always been in the pool, it's that much harder.

Your calculation of US population growth is off. The current population is about double the population of the mid-1950s, not 1920.

[Phogge]

Well Bobbbbb was born in 1928, me in 1938, Q in 1948.

Does this have anything to do with the old problem of two trains meeting at a certain place that was a freshman algebra problem that I never could figure out?

[Phogge]

Well Bobbbbb was born in 1928, me in 1938, Q in 1948.

Does this have anything to do with the old problem of two trains meeting at a certain place that was a freshman algebra problem that I never could figure out?

[CompSci87]

Well Bobbbbb was born in 1928, me in 1938, Q in 1948.

Does this have anything to do with the old problem of two trains meeting at a certain place that was a freshman algebra problem that I never could figure out?

Yes, the question is: in what year will the three of you all be the same age?

[CompSci87]

Well Bobbbbb was born in 1928, me in 1938, Q in 1948.

Does this have anything to do with the old problem of two trains meeting at a certain place that was a freshman algebra problem that I never could figure out?

Yes, the question is: in what year will the three of you all be the same age?

[BostonCard]

Described as the “white whale” of college coaching prospects for NFL jobs.

https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000...AEA&sr=amp

BC

[BostonCard]

Described as the “white whale” of college coaching prospects for NFL jobs.

https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000...AEA&sr=amp

BC

[teejers1]

Described as the “white whale” of college coaching prospects for NFL jobs.

https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000...AEA&sr=amp

BC

That's  good one!

[teejers1]

Described as the “white whale” of college coaching prospects for NFL jobs.

https://amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000...AEA&sr=amp

BC

That's  good one!

[OutsiderFan]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

[OutsiderFan]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

[JohnR34231]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

[JohnR34231]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

[OutsiderFan]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

[OutsiderFan]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

[cardcrimson]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

[cardcrimson]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

[CardinalSagehen]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

And Frank Gore.  Two ACL tears in the same knee in two college seasons - that was 16 years and about 16,000 yards ago.

[CardinalSagehen]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

And Frank Gore.  Two ACL tears in the same knee in two college seasons - that was 16 years and about 16,000 yards ago.

[OutsiderFan]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

Ya, it’s the Sony or PlayStation Theater now, right? But you get my point.

[OutsiderFan]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

Ya, it’s the Sony or PlayStation Theater now, right? But you get my point.

[cardcrimson]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

Ya, it’s the Sony or PlayStation Theater now, right? But you get my point.

Not quite. Interesting story, not damaged in the attack, but near enough it was closed for six months. Couldn't survive. Now condos and a preschool.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downtown_Athletic_Club

[cardcrimson]

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

Sadly, there is zero chance of that.

The Downtown Athletic Club hasn't been open since 9/11.

Ya, it’s the Sony or PlayStation Theater now, right? But you get my point.

Not quite. Interesting story, not damaged in the attack, but near enough it was closed for six months. Couldn't survive. Now condos and a preschool.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downtown_Athletic_Club

[BostonCard]

Described in this rundown of Dallas Cowboys potential coaches (https://apple.news/AZwkCrhKaT8WwF2BjSuN7jA) as "apple of many NFL execs’ eyes"

Interesting quote...

Now, after a season decimated by injuries and with 14 players transferring, there’s buzz that Shaw may be ready to make the jump to the NFL.

I wonder where that "buzz" has come from.

BC

[BostonCard]

Described in this rundown of Dallas Cowboys potential coaches (https://apple.news/AZwkCrhKaT8WwF2BjSuN7jA) as "apple of many NFL execs’ eyes"

Interesting quote...

Now, after a season decimated by injuries and with 14 players transferring, there’s buzz that Shaw may be ready to make the jump to the NFL.

I wonder where that "buzz" has come from.

BC

[JohnR34231]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

OK, I guess we have now decided we are going to be very optimistic about next year, and any one who suggests otherwise is "peeing in the Cheerios".
That's OK, I'm fine with that.
Hope everyone complies and you are correct.

[JohnR34231]

Something tells me David Shaw is pretty excited at the prospect of having Davis Mills, Tanner McKee, and a once again strong OL along with all the skill players he has recruited over the last two classes.

I believe McKee is Stanford's next most likely player who will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club.

The only problem is that if history is any indication, Mills is likely to be injured for a significant portion of the season, and McKee probably won't be ready to play until 2021.
So someone (probably Jack West) will have to fill in. Hopefully whoever it is will be up to the task.

Dude, really?  What is so wrong with being optimistic about things getting better, like Mills staying healthy?  Why "pee in the Cheerios" here?

You know who else had a history of constant injuries who nobody thought could stay healthy through an entire football season?  Jimmie Ward, Safety for the Niners. He has played every game this season and well.

OK, I guess we have now decided we are going to be very optimistic about next year, and any one who suggests otherwise is "peeing in the Cheerios".
That's OK, I'm fine with that.
Hope everyone complies and you are correct.

[OutsiderFan]

First of all, what is the point of ever continuing with anything if you can’t be optimistic about some kind of future in some way? Second, there is a big difference between stomping on any shred of optimism and allowing some reasons for it.

Yes, Mills has had an injury history. Yes, it may continue. But look at a guy like Frank Gore. He had two ACL surgeries in college and has been one of the most durable RBs in NFL history. It should be far easier for a QB to return to more consistent knee health than just about any position in sports.

Mills is an exceptionally talented QB who can do more things than Costello. And McKee is a physical talent on par with Trevor Lawrence. It’s possible Shaw doesn’t cultivate an offensive approach that allows them to flourish, but the recruiting of more versatile RBs, more OL, and more WRs in the last two classes provides some reason to believe a more productive and dare I say entertaining offense might be if the offing.

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

[OutsiderFan]

First of all, what is the point of ever continuing with anything if you can’t be optimistic about some kind of future in some way? Second, there is a big difference between stomping on any shred of optimism and allowing some reasons for it.

Yes, Mills has had an injury history. Yes, it may continue. But look at a guy like Frank Gore. He had two ACL surgeries in college and has been one of the most durable RBs in NFL history. It should be far easier for a QB to return to more consistent knee health than just about any position in sports.

Mills is an exceptionally talented QB who can do more things than Costello. And McKee is a physical talent on par with Trevor Lawrence. It’s possible Shaw doesn’t cultivate an offensive approach that allows them to flourish, but the recruiting of more versatile RBs, more OL, and more WRs in the last two classes provides some reason to believe a more productive and dare I say entertaining offense might be if the offing.

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

[JohnR34231]

First of all, what is the point of ever continuing with anything if you can’t be optimistic about some kind of future in some way? Second, there is a big difference between stomping on any shred of optimism and allowing some reasons for it.

Yes, Mills has had an injury history. Yes, it may continue. But look at a guy like Frank Gore. He had two ACL surgeries in college and has been one of the most durable RBs in NFL history. It should be far easier for a QB to return to more consistent knee health than just about any position in sports.

Mills is an exceptionally talented QB who can do more things than Costello. And McKee is a physical talent on par with Trevor Lawrence. It’s possible Shaw doesn’t cultivate an offensive approach that allows them to flourish, but the recruiting of more versatile RBs, more OL, and more WRs in the last two classes provides some reason to believe a more productive and dare I say entertaining offense might be if the offing.

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

Hey, I've been optimistic on Mills ever since we signed him. I thought he was going to be our next superstar QB. He still may and I hope he does.
However, given his track record of injuries you'll have to excuse me if I don't bet the farm on it.
How about if I say I'm cautiously optimistic on him?
I'm very optimistic on McKee. Just not for 2020. Mostly because he's coming in off a two year mission and the fact that Shaw doesn't play true freshman QB's anyway (except maybe for a few plays under the new redshirting rules).

[JohnR34231]

First of all, what is the point of ever continuing with anything if you can’t be optimistic about some kind of future in some way? Second, there is a big difference between stomping on any shred of optimism and allowing some reasons for it.

Yes, Mills has had an injury history. Yes, it may continue. But look at a guy like Frank Gore. He had two ACL surgeries in college and has been one of the most durable RBs in NFL history. It should be far easier for a QB to return to more consistent knee health than just about any position in sports.

Mills is an exceptionally talented QB who can do more things than Costello. And McKee is a physical talent on par with Trevor Lawrence. It’s possible Shaw doesn’t cultivate an offensive approach that allows them to flourish, but the recruiting of more versatile RBs, more OL, and more WRs in the last two classes provides some reason to believe a more productive and dare I say entertaining offense might be if the offing.

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

Hey, I've been optimistic on Mills ever since we signed him. I thought he was going to be our next superstar QB. He still may and I hope he does.
However, given his track record of injuries you'll have to excuse me if I don't bet the farm on it.
How about if I say I'm cautiously optimistic on him?
I'm very optimistic on McKee. Just not for 2020. Mostly because he's coming in off a two year mission and the fact that Shaw doesn't play true freshman QB's anyway (except maybe for a few plays under the new redshirting rules).

[winflop]

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

I'd like to be optimistic but in the absence of any changes in the coaching staff (including S&C) I'm finding it very difficult to do so. Shaw no longer gets the benefit of the doubt from me, and another season of mediocrity (or worse) is going to have me questioning whether he is still the right person for the job. I hope he proves me wrong.

[winflop]

I’d like to be optimistic this is the case until I see it isn’t. I’m on record as saying I believe Shaw should divest himself from offensive coordinating and play-calling responsibilities and ideally bring in a guy from outside Stanford to run the offense. So I won’t be very patient this coming season. But even I can give Shaw the benefit of the doubt coming off a year with never before seen OL and QB injuries, with more versatile offensive personnel than he has ever had, before going all chicken little about 2020.

I'd like to be optimistic but in the absence of any changes in the coaching staff (including S&C) I'm finding it very difficult to do so. Shaw no longer gets the benefit of the doubt from me, and another season of mediocrity (or worse) is going to have me questioning whether he is still the right person for the job. I hope he proves me wrong.

[martyup]

Another year of missed games from injuries like we had in 2019 and I'm optimistic that we will have another down year.

[martyup]

Another year of missed games from injuries like we had in 2019 and I'm optimistic that we will have another down year.

[qwerty49]

I'm very optimistic on McKee. Just not for 2020. Mostly because he's coming in off a two year mission and the fact that Shaw doesn't play true freshman QB's anyway (except maybe for a few plays under the new redshirting rules).

Let's see what McKee weighs when he reports.  Apparently he's lost weight down in Brazil.  After two years, he may need time just to get back his S&C.

What bothered me about Mills was last year's injury (against UC Davis, I think) didn't look like it came from contact.

[qwerty49]

I'm very optimistic on McKee. Just not for 2020. Mostly because he's coming in off a two year mission and the fact that Shaw doesn't play true freshman QB's anyway (except maybe for a few plays under the new redshirting rules).

Let's see what McKee weighs when he reports.  Apparently he's lost weight down in Brazil.  After two years, he may need time just to get back his S&C.

What bothered me about Mills was last year's injury (against UC Davis, I think) didn't look like it came from contact.