[Leftcoast]

I think we all see positive trends in the Santa Clara data but perhaps we are afraid we will "jinx" it by calling it out?   Hope is not a bad thing if we all stay aware of how far we have to go.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." - Winston Churchill, in November of 1942 after the Battle of El Alamein.  VE day would come 2 1/2 years later in May of 1945

[Leftcoast]

I think we all see positive trends in the Santa Clara data but perhaps we are afraid we will "jinx" it by calling it out?   Hope is not a bad thing if we all stay aware of how far we have to go.

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." - Winston Churchill, in November of 1942 after the Battle of El Alamein.  VE day would come 2 1/2 years later in May of 1945

[Mick]

The other shining example of social distancing related measures,  WA is showing similar behavior.   New cases going down but testing also dropping too. 

I guess it's better than new cases going up while testing goes down.

Testing is probably going down because people that are candidates for testing are decreasing in number. The two should more or less track if that is the case.

Really didn't like the implications that half of Iceland's positive tests involved asymptomatic people.

[Mick]

The other shining example of social distancing related measures,  WA is showing similar behavior.   New cases going down but testing also dropping too. 

I guess it's better than new cases going up while testing goes down.

Testing is probably going down because people that are candidates for testing are decreasing in number. The two should more or less track if that is the case.

Really didn't like the implications that half of Iceland's positive tests involved asymptomatic people.

[M T]

Today, there were 17 new cases added.  As a reminder, this is the same number added on March 28, which was followed by a spike.
The more stable Test Results have not been updated today.

[M T]

Today, there were 17 new cases added.  As a reminder, this is the same number added on March 28, which was followed by a spike.
The more stable Test Results have not been updated today.

[M T]

The lab test results were posted about 8:30PM.  The positive results of the last 4 full days have been declining (but more positive results might come in, and likely to be added to last few days).  The numbers in parentheses are the change in the daily counts since the previous postings for full days.
(March 27, 10 days after SiP) 75, 69, 52, 50, 74, 59(-1), 51(-1), 34(+3), 27 (April 4, 18 days after SiP)

In terms of COVID-19 patients in the hospital, we're seeing a drop as well.
Acute beds: (March 30) 97, 108, 153, 199, 180, 175, 165 (April 5)
ICU: (March 30) 75, 90, 92, 88, 88, 91 (April 5)
Ventilators (COVID-19 + non-COVID-19): (March 30) 209, 227, 198, 214, 218, 217, 198 (April 5)

[M T]

The lab test results were posted about 8:30PM.  The positive results of the last 4 full days have been declining (but more positive results might come in, and likely to be added to last few days).  The numbers in parentheses are the change in the daily counts since the previous postings for full days.
(March 27, 10 days after SiP) 75, 69, 52, 50, 74, 59(-1), 51(-1), 34(+3), 27 (April 4, 18 days after SiP)

In terms of COVID-19 patients in the hospital, we're seeing a drop as well.
Acute beds: (March 30) 97, 108, 153, 199, 180, 175, 165 (April 5)
ICU: (March 30) 75, 90, 92, 88, 88, 91 (April 5)
Ventilators (COVID-19 + non-COVID-19): (March 30) 209, 227, 198, 214, 218, 217, 198 (April 5)

[oldalum]

61 new cases reported today, one additional death. I think the number of new cases has leveled off over the past week, and maybe declined slightly:

66-63-75-54-59-17-61

[oldalum]

61 new cases reported today, one additional death. I think the number of new cases has leveled off over the past week, and maybe declined slightly:

66-63-75-54-59-17-61

[M T]

It really looks like SCC growth rate is pretty darn close to 1.0.
From the testing results:
(March 25) 70, 52, 76, 68, 51, 50, 73, 61, 54, 45, 51, 47, 63 (April 6)
We're 4x the incubation period since the start of shelter-in-place.

There might be a small downslope, but not much.   I know SCC is a small sample compared to the whole country, but SCC has a lead on much of the country.  2M population is not that small a number.

At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence? 

Mask usage may help - I hope it does but I will be surprised if it is a silver bullet.  The numbers that were out before this epidemic suggested it may reduce flu infections by a half.  But the flu was a different beast.

Warmer weather may help.  I've seen as many studies saying no as saying yes.  If it does help, we'll get enough of a break that we'll be in a vulnerable position when it hits again.  The time delays would mean that we'll react late and a number of people will die.


At 50 symptomatic cases a day, that's about 2 deaths a day in SCC, with a modest estimate of 4% CFR (S. Korea is 1.8%, China, as a country, is 4%, some other places are much higher)

Drop the shelter-in-place and we're quickly back to exponential growth, but not starting at 1.

Some here seem to think that a lot of asymptomatic cases are good because it lowers the IFR.  But it doesn't lower the number of symptomatic cases or deaths.   Suppose the IFR is 0.5%.  0.5% of the US population is 1.65 Million.  0.9%? 3M.   That's one way to lower the unemployment rate.

At this time, we don't know whether the asymptomatic cases have immunity, or whether they'll have worse problems with the disease later.  And we don't know if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic is the same for all ages.

[M T]

It really looks like SCC growth rate is pretty darn close to 1.0.
From the testing results:
(March 25) 70, 52, 76, 68, 51, 50, 73, 61, 54, 45, 51, 47, 63 (April 6)
We're 4x the incubation period since the start of shelter-in-place.

There might be a small downslope, but not much.   I know SCC is a small sample compared to the whole country, but SCC has a lead on much of the country.  2M population is not that small a number.

At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence? 

Mask usage may help - I hope it does but I will be surprised if it is a silver bullet.  The numbers that were out before this epidemic suggested it may reduce flu infections by a half.  But the flu was a different beast.

Warmer weather may help.  I've seen as many studies saying no as saying yes.  If it does help, we'll get enough of a break that we'll be in a vulnerable position when it hits again.  The time delays would mean that we'll react late and a number of people will die.


At 50 symptomatic cases a day, that's about 2 deaths a day in SCC, with a modest estimate of 4% CFR (S. Korea is 1.8%, China, as a country, is 4%, some other places are much higher)

Drop the shelter-in-place and we're quickly back to exponential growth, but not starting at 1.

Some here seem to think that a lot of asymptomatic cases are good because it lowers the IFR.  But it doesn't lower the number of symptomatic cases or deaths.   Suppose the IFR is 0.5%.  0.5% of the US population is 1.65 Million.  0.9%? 3M.   That's one way to lower the unemployment rate.

At this time, we don't know whether the asymptomatic cases have immunity, or whether they'll have worse problems with the disease later.  And we don't know if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic is the same for all ages.

[magnus]

At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence?  

I wonder about this too.  We're all trying to flatten the curve...but will we be able to bend it back down?

[magnus]

At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence?  

I wonder about this too.  We're all trying to flatten the curve...but will we be able to bend it back down?