[ChicagoCard]

I've been reading and appreciating most of the threads here but I don't recall much talk of how Sweden is approaching things... which involves more selectivity than many places in the extent to which people shut things down. I don't really have a question or a statement, but here's another article (both in English naturally) that includes comments from their former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke.

[ChicagoCard]

I've been reading and appreciating most of the threads here but I don't recall much talk of how Sweden is approaching things... which involves more selectivity than many places in the extent to which people shut things down. I don't really have a question or a statement, but here's another article (both in English naturally) that includes comments from their former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke.

[ChicagoCard]

At the risk of nobody being interested, Sweden has definitely had the focus of many for it's middle approach or whatever it might be called. Here is a youtube interview conducted in English with Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist for Sweden (1995 to 2005) who is now and adviser to the Swedish government. He sheds more light on the Swedish approach than the various articles in the English press that I've seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY&t=5s

[ChicagoCard]

At the risk of nobody being interested, Sweden has definitely had the focus of many for it's middle approach or whatever it might be called. Here is a youtube interview conducted in English with Johan Giesecke, former state epidemiologist for Sweden (1995 to 2005) who is now and adviser to the Swedish government. He sheds more light on the Swedish approach than the various articles in the English press that I've seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY&t=5s

[terry]

Deaths per million of population:

152 Sweden
61  Denmark
30  Norway
17  Finland

[terry]

Deaths per million of population:

152 Sweden
61  Denmark
30  Norway
17  Finland

[2006alum]

Big Bloomberg article on this today, too. A few interesting tidbits:

Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.

As of Sunday, Sweden had reported 1,540 deaths tied to Covid-19, an increase of 29 from Saturday. That’s considerably more than in the rest of Scandinavia, but much less than in Italy, Spain and the U.K., both in absolute and relative terms.

Interestingly, Sweden's neighbors seem to have far fewer deaths: Norway has 165 deaths, and Finland has 94. Sweden's population is roughly twice the size of Finland and Norway, so that suggests Sweden has at least five times the death rate as Norway and eight times Finland's.

[2006alum]

Big Bloomberg article on this today, too. A few interesting tidbits:

Pomeroy pointed to some Swedish characteristics that may be helping the country deal with the current crisis. More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.

As of Sunday, Sweden had reported 1,540 deaths tied to Covid-19, an increase of 29 from Saturday. That’s considerably more than in the rest of Scandinavia, but much less than in Italy, Spain and the U.K., both in absolute and relative terms.

Interestingly, Sweden's neighbors seem to have far fewer deaths: Norway has 165 deaths, and Finland has 94. Sweden's population is roughly twice the size of Finland and Norway, so that suggests Sweden has at least five times the death rate as Norway and eight times Finland's.

[teejers1]

Deaths per million of population:

152 Sweden
61  Denmark
30  Norway
17  Finland

It's all about balancing.  And it would be informative to have profiles of those who died.

[teejers1]

Deaths per million of population:

152 Sweden
61  Denmark
30  Norway
17  Finland

It's all about balancing.  And it would be informative to have profiles of those who died.

[ChicagoCard]

Crowd control measures in relatively less locked down Sweden: Chicken manure...

https://www.thelocal.se/20200429/how-the...-in-sweden

[ChicagoCard]

Crowd control measures in relatively less locked down Sweden: Chicken manure...

https://www.thelocal.se/20200429/how-the...-in-sweden

[BostonCard]

Well, it looks like Sweden is not going to get to herd immunity.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548...ogist-says

By late April, only 7.3% of Stokholm's residents had antibodies, and it doesn't look like there's been much of an acceleration in May.  As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

And Sweden has not been spared from the economic consequences

Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home. Google records indicated that trips to retail and recreational destinations in Stockholm are down 23%, while passenger numbers on public transit declined 29% between March 28-May 9.

On the other hand, there is no evidence that the pandemic has spiraled out of control or that hospitals in Sweden are over-run.  The non-lockdown measures are broadly popular though, supported by 63% of Swedes, even though there are now some protests against the lack of lockdown (go figure).  In the end, time will tell whether Sweden will get to herd immunity or will be able to keep the number of deaths from spiraling, and whether despite all that, its economic hit is comparable to that of its neighbors or if it will suffer less because of the non-lockdown.

It's good someone is out there experimenting and trying different measures (ditto Georgia opening up after the lockdown).

BC

[BostonCard]

Well, it looks like Sweden is not going to get to herd immunity.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548...ogist-says

By late April, only 7.3% of Stokholm's residents had antibodies, and it doesn't look like there's been much of an acceleration in May.  As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

And Sweden has not been spared from the economic consequences

Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home. Google records indicated that trips to retail and recreational destinations in Stockholm are down 23%, while passenger numbers on public transit declined 29% between March 28-May 9.

On the other hand, there is no evidence that the pandemic has spiraled out of control or that hospitals in Sweden are over-run.  The non-lockdown measures are broadly popular though, supported by 63% of Swedes, even though there are now some protests against the lack of lockdown (go figure).  In the end, time will tell whether Sweden will get to herd immunity or will be able to keep the number of deaths from spiraling, and whether despite all that, its economic hit is comparable to that of its neighbors or if it will suffer less because of the non-lockdown.

It's good someone is out there experimenting and trying different measures (ditto Georgia opening up after the lockdown).

BC

[2006alum]

My major frustration with all of this, and it's something Nate Silver has tweeted about several times, is that there's plenty of individual behavior that is more conservative than the formal rules require, and this is true in Sweden as well as many other places, including Georgia. Because it's so difficult to measure what % of people are wearing masks, not going to house parties, avoiding hair salons that are open, etc., it's very hard to gauge how much the formal lockdown behavior versus more informal social distancing measures are both (a) broadly effective at curbing the spread; and (b) broadly damaging to the economy. 

But it's pretty clear Sweden's approach was flawed from the get-go and yet they have stubbornly carried on for months on the mythical notion that they will very quickly reach herd immunity. Unless you force people to stop social distancing, the broad strategy and the government's recommended guidelines are fundamentally at odds with one another.

[2006alum]

My major frustration with all of this, and it's something Nate Silver has tweeted about several times, is that there's plenty of individual behavior that is more conservative than the formal rules require, and this is true in Sweden as well as many other places, including Georgia. Because it's so difficult to measure what % of people are wearing masks, not going to house parties, avoiding hair salons that are open, etc., it's very hard to gauge how much the formal lockdown behavior versus more informal social distancing measures are both (a) broadly effective at curbing the spread; and (b) broadly damaging to the economy. 

But it's pretty clear Sweden's approach was flawed from the get-go and yet they have stubbornly carried on for months on the mythical notion that they will very quickly reach herd immunity. Unless you force people to stop social distancing, the broad strategy and the government's recommended guidelines are fundamentally at odds with one another.

[terry]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

409  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

[figures updated on 5/26]

[terry]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

409  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

[figures updated on 5/26]

[magnus]

It's good someone is out there experimenting and trying different measures (ditto Georgia opening up after the lockdown).

Unfortunately, they weren't able to take this opportunity to see how contagious/susceptible school kids are.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/...us-schools

[magnus]

It's good someone is out there experimenting and trying different measures (ditto Georgia opening up after the lockdown).

Unfortunately, they weren't able to take this opportunity to see how contagious/susceptible school kids are.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/...us-schools

[BostonCard]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

399  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

Indeed, but I believe the Swedish argument is that a year from now, everyone else will catch up.that was predicated on a high degree of herd immunity in Sweden, though, which doesn’t appear to be materializing.

BC

[BostonCard]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

399  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

Indeed, but I believe the Swedish argument is that a year from now, everyone else will catch up.that was predicated on a high degree of herd immunity in Sweden, though, which doesn’t appear to be materializing.

BC

[stupac2]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

399  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

Indeed, but I believe the Swedish argument is that a year from now, everyone else will catch up.that was predicated on a high degree of herd immunity in Sweden, though, which doesn’t appear to be materializing.

BC

At this point I think it's pretty clear that concerned citizens who are capable of it are going to hold out until there's a treatment or vaccine, and there's enough of them to cause basically the same damage as restrictions designed to prevent infection. (And, frankly, it might just be that citizens follow their leaders' lead, so what we're seeing isn't so much a differential in the lockdown-type policies but differences in signals of severity from leaders.) If that's the case then the only race Sweden is winning is "most infections before treatment/vaccine". I've genuinely never understood what the goal was of their policy for largely this reason.

[stupac2]

As noted previously, Sweden has a higher death rate from COVID-19 than Denmark, Norway, or Finland.

The gap in death rates is substantial.

Covid-19 deaths per million of population

399  Sweden
97    Denmark
56    Finland
43    Norway

Indeed, but I believe the Swedish argument is that a year from now, everyone else will catch up.that was predicated on a high degree of herd immunity in Sweden, though, which doesn’t appear to be materializing.

BC

At this point I think it's pretty clear that concerned citizens who are capable of it are going to hold out until there's a treatment or vaccine, and there's enough of them to cause basically the same damage as restrictions designed to prevent infection. (And, frankly, it might just be that citizens follow their leaders' lead, so what we're seeing isn't so much a differential in the lockdown-type policies but differences in signals of severity from leaders.) If that's the case then the only race Sweden is winning is "most infections before treatment/vaccine". I've genuinely never understood what the goal was of their policy for largely this reason.

[BostonCard]

Well, this is quite an indignity.  Scandinavian countries (Denmark and Norway for now) are planning to open their borders to one another starting June 15th.  Sweden was pointedly left out of this arrangement because they still have too much COVID-19 transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/...4c392352c6

The Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said there was a “strong desire” to find a solution for the Swedish border, but that the countries “are in different places” with respect to the coronavirus situation. The Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg agreed that “the infection situation looks different in Sweden,” but added that Norway is continuing dialog with Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

BC

[BostonCard]

Well, this is quite an indignity.  Scandinavian countries (Denmark and Norway for now) are planning to open their borders to one another starting June 15th.  Sweden was pointedly left out of this arrangement because they still have too much COVID-19 transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/...4c392352c6

The Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said there was a “strong desire” to find a solution for the Swedish border, but that the countries “are in different places” with respect to the coronavirus situation. The Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg agreed that “the infection situation looks different in Sweden,” but added that Norway is continuing dialog with Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

BC

[Farm93]

Well, this is quite an indignity.  Scandinavian countries (Denmark and Norway for now) are planning to open their borders to one another starting June 15th.  Sweden was pointedly left out of this arrangement because they still have too much COVID-19 transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/...4c392352c6

The Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said there was a “strong desire” to find a solution for the Swedish border, but that the countries “are in different places” with respect to the coronavirus situation. The Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg agreed that “the infection situation looks different in Sweden,” but added that Norway is continuing dialog with Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

BC

That will be very hard to enforce as Norway shares a very long and unguarded border with Sweden.   Guess they are counting on Swedish citizens to do the right thing, which is probably a reasonable assumption.

FWIW - As we get into June and July we are likely to see a large number of countries restoring international travel while specifically banning USA travel noting "the infection situation looks different in (the USA)".

[Farm93]

Well, this is quite an indignity.  Scandinavian countries (Denmark and Norway for now) are planning to open their borders to one another starting June 15th.  Sweden was pointedly left out of this arrangement because they still have too much COVID-19 transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/...4c392352c6

The Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said there was a “strong desire” to find a solution for the Swedish border, but that the countries “are in different places” with respect to the coronavirus situation. The Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg agreed that “the infection situation looks different in Sweden,” but added that Norway is continuing dialog with Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

BC

That will be very hard to enforce as Norway shares a very long and unguarded border with Sweden.   Guess they are counting on Swedish citizens to do the right thing, which is probably a reasonable assumption.

FWIW - As we get into June and July we are likely to see a large number of countries restoring international travel while specifically banning USA travel noting "the infection situation looks different in (the USA)".

[2006alum]

So much for that...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1268176368371712012?s=20[/tweet]

Sweden’s top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who managed the country’s response to the pandemic, said in a radio interview that he may not have gone with the strategy of avoiding a national lockdown if he could do things again, Bloomberg News reported.
“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.
“Clearly, there is potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden,” he added, according to a translation from Bloomberg News.

[2006alum]

So much for that...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1268176368371712012?s=20[/tweet]

Sweden’s top epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who managed the country’s response to the pandemic, said in a radio interview that he may not have gone with the strategy of avoiding a national lockdown if he could do things again, Bloomberg News reported.
“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.
“Clearly, there is potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden,” he added, according to a translation from Bloomberg News.