[cardcrimson]

According to a published WAPO article based on leaked State Department documents, US embassy officials expressed concerns two years ago that a facility in Wuhan was doing testing on viruses in bats. They claimed that proper safety precautions weren't in place and feared that human transmission could occur and warned of a future coronavirus outbreak.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...naviruses/

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-...-outbreak/

Move along. Nothing to see here.

[cardcrimson]

According to a published WAPO article based on leaked State Department documents, US embassy officials expressed concerns two years ago that a facility in Wuhan was doing testing on viruses in bats. They claimed that proper safety precautions weren't in place and feared that human transmission could occur and warned of a future coronavirus outbreak.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...naviruses/

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/u-s-...-outbreak/

Move along. Nothing to see here.

[BobK]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

[BobK]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

[BostonCard]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

[BostonCard]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

[dabigv13]

Very interesting article. If this made it out from a virology lab, China knows. Would need a brave soul flipping or some very good intelligence to figure that out.

[dabigv13]

Very interesting article. If this made it out from a virology lab, China knows. Would need a brave soul flipping or some very good intelligence to figure that out.

[stupac2]

I can't read the wapo article, but it's certainly possible that the initial zoonotic transfer was from a lab or some such, I doubt we'll ever know and I'm not sure why it would really matter.

[stupac2]

I can't read the wapo article, but it's certainly possible that the initial zoonotic transfer was from a lab or some such, I doubt we'll ever know and I'm not sure why it would really matter.

[2006alum]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

Which lean do you have in mind? The one towards facts, or the one towards idle speculation? It's certainly possible that there was some a contamination or leak from that laboratory. One of the lab workers could have accidentally infected themselves, been presymptomatic for a week, and gone on to cause a pandemic. Indeed, in 2015 there was an explosion at a lab in Russia that houses both Small Pox and Ebola that raised the alarm for how easily one error could cause a global pandemic. Fortunately in that case it didn't affect storage of those viruses, but clearly security for laboratories working on contagious viruses needs to be beefed up. 

Of course, one thing noted in the cables is that although State Dep't officials begged for added support, the U.S. government did not respond to the request:

Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems. “The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.” No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables.

So, even if the lab was the source of the pandemic, in theory we knew about this as a risk and yet did nothing?

[2006alum]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

Which lean do you have in mind? The one towards facts, or the one towards idle speculation? It's certainly possible that there was some a contamination or leak from that laboratory. One of the lab workers could have accidentally infected themselves, been presymptomatic for a week, and gone on to cause a pandemic. Indeed, in 2015 there was an explosion at a lab in Russia that houses both Small Pox and Ebola that raised the alarm for how easily one error could cause a global pandemic. Fortunately in that case it didn't affect storage of those viruses, but clearly security for laboratories working on contagious viruses needs to be beefed up. 

Of course, one thing noted in the cables is that although State Dep't officials begged for added support, the U.S. government did not respond to the request:

Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems. “The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.” No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables.

So, even if the lab was the source of the pandemic, in theory we knew about this as a risk and yet did nothing?

[cardcrimson]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

Nah. Not me.

[cardcrimson]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

Nah. Not me.

[burger]

Circumstantial evidence much?  This is still firmly in the land of conspiracy theories until someone we get real evidence (note: both pieces in the OP's post are opinion pieces/blog posts).

Will never find it now, but I saw a twitter thread discussing how many, many labs have had similar problems. 

Among them, the CDC: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016.../84978860/

[burger]

Circumstantial evidence much?  This is still firmly in the land of conspiracy theories until someone we get real evidence (note: both pieces in the OP's post are opinion pieces/blog posts).

Will never find it now, but I saw a twitter thread discussing how many, many labs have had similar problems. 

Among them, the CDC: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016.../84978860/

[2006alum]

(note: both pieces in the OP's post are opinion pieces/blog posts).

Also worth noting: the same WaPo op-ed writer provided this contribution back in March, arguing that "CCP virus" is a better name than "Chinese Virus":
[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1240765299667984386?s=20[/tweet]

Res ipsa loquitur.

[2006alum]

(note: both pieces in the OP's post are opinion pieces/blog posts).

Also worth noting: the same WaPo op-ed writer provided this contribution back in March, arguing that "CCP virus" is a better name than "Chinese Virus":
[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1240765299667984386?s=20[/tweet]

Res ipsa loquitur.

[Genuine Realist]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

It's not decisive, but certainly something arresting. The origin from the lab can no longer be discounted (though actual biological warfare is extremely dubious - you don't start a battle by decimating your own society.)

Another reason to adopt policies to repatriate the US economic presence in China. We are dealing with a rogue State. Even if the virus arose entirely naturally, the campaign of delay and misinformation is inexcusable.

[Genuine Realist]

Or depending on your leaning lots to see here.

he was being sarcastic.

BC

It's not decisive, but certainly something arresting. The origin from the lab can no longer be discounted (though actual biological warfare is extremely dubious - you don't start a battle by decimating your own society.)

Another reason to adopt policies to repatriate the US economic presence in China. We are dealing with a rogue State. Even if the virus arose entirely naturally, the campaign of delay and misinformation is inexcusable.

[2006alum]

Another reason to adopt policies to repatriate the US economic presence in China. We are dealing with a rogue State.

That's what you take from this? What I take away from the story about those cables is that we need global cooperation on things like virus research, lab safety standards, pandemic mitigation, etc. 

It's in no nation-state's interest to start a global pandemic. And most U.S. cases came from Europe, not China, so closing our border to China didn't stop it. However much we may (reasonably) doubt the CPP's intentions in terms of foreign relations, viruses do not care about borders or geopolitics. 

Which is why I keep saying, Arrival, not Contagion, is the movie that's most relevant for this moment.

Even if the virus arose entirely naturally, the campaign of delay and misinformation is inexcusable.

Do you feel the same way about the campaign of delay and misinformation propagated by our President?

[2006alum]

Another reason to adopt policies to repatriate the US economic presence in China. We are dealing with a rogue State.

That's what you take from this? What I take away from the story about those cables is that we need global cooperation on things like virus research, lab safety standards, pandemic mitigation, etc. 

It's in no nation-state's interest to start a global pandemic. And most U.S. cases came from Europe, not China, so closing our border to China didn't stop it. However much we may (reasonably) doubt the CPP's intentions in terms of foreign relations, viruses do not care about borders or geopolitics. 

Which is why I keep saying, Arrival, not Contagion, is the movie that's most relevant for this moment.

Even if the virus arose entirely naturally, the campaign of delay and misinformation is inexcusable.

Do you feel the same way about the campaign of delay and misinformation propagated by our President?

[burger]

In the absence of any non-circumstantial evidence that this started in a Chinese lab, how about this:

SARS started in a wildlife market
MERS most likely came from camels
AIDS most likely came from chimpanzees.
(The list of major human diseases that started in wildlife is too long to recount fully here.)  
And, most of the early covid-19 cases were linked to a wet market.

If you're okay with circumstantial evidence, the evidence for a (captive) wildlife origin for covid-19 is far stronger than the Chinese lab case.

[burger]

In the absence of any non-circumstantial evidence that this started in a Chinese lab, how about this:

SARS started in a wildlife market
MERS most likely came from camels
AIDS most likely came from chimpanzees.
(The list of major human diseases that started in wildlife is too long to recount fully here.)  
And, most of the early covid-19 cases were linked to a wet market.

If you're okay with circumstantial evidence, the evidence for a (captive) wildlife origin for covid-19 is far stronger than the Chinese lab case.

[2006alum]

In the absence of any non-circumstantial evidence that this started in a Chinese lab, how about this:

SARS started in a wildlife market
MERS most likely came from camels
AIDS most likely came from chimpanzees.
(The list of major human diseases that started in wildlife is too long to recount fully here.)  
And, most of the early covid-19 cases were linked to a wet market.

If you're okay with circumstantial evidence, the evidence for a (captive) wildlife origin for covid-19 is far stronger than the Chinese lab case.

Don't forget swine flu, which came from a factory farms in the U.S. (in 1998) and Mexico (2009). The single best way to stop many of these pandemics is to stop eating animals.

[2006alum]

In the absence of any non-circumstantial evidence that this started in a Chinese lab, how about this:

SARS started in a wildlife market
MERS most likely came from camels
AIDS most likely came from chimpanzees.
(The list of major human diseases that started in wildlife is too long to recount fully here.)  
And, most of the early covid-19 cases were linked to a wet market.

If you're okay with circumstantial evidence, the evidence for a (captive) wildlife origin for covid-19 is far stronger than the Chinese lab case.

Don't forget swine flu, which came from a factory farms in the U.S. (in 1998) and Mexico (2009). The single best way to stop many of these pandemics is to stop eating animals.

[OutsiderFan]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

[OutsiderFan]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

[Snorlax94]

I mean, it's possible something is there, and China censoring stories about the origin of Covid doesn't help, but it's just a circumstantial item at this point, and all the saber rattling is irresponsible and harmful.

Did Russia compensate all the people who were harmed by Chernobyl?

Finger-pointing at this time is counter-productive because:
1) Nations need to work together to solve this (just wait until the US gets it under control and Covid skyrockets in less developed countries) 
2) Finger-pointing and xenophobia are manipulations used by governments to stir up nationalism and cover up for their own incompetence and to consolidate power (I predict more laws discriminating against gays being passed in Russia and like-minded countries as their failures become more apparent and the global economy tanks)
3) Nothing close to the facts are out yet. It will take years -- if we ever find out -- and it's just plain stupid to make these sorts of decisions on gut instinct, appealing to emotion, and without any concrete information. (And even if it *was* not from the wet markets -- you mean like Chernobyl, the Trinity Test, Three Mile Island, Acid Rain, producing the most carbon emissions per capita for decades...)

[Snorlax94]

I mean, it's possible something is there, and China censoring stories about the origin of Covid doesn't help, but it's just a circumstantial item at this point, and all the saber rattling is irresponsible and harmful.

Did Russia compensate all the people who were harmed by Chernobyl?

Finger-pointing at this time is counter-productive because:
1) Nations need to work together to solve this (just wait until the US gets it under control and Covid skyrockets in less developed countries) 
2) Finger-pointing and xenophobia are manipulations used by governments to stir up nationalism and cover up for their own incompetence and to consolidate power (I predict more laws discriminating against gays being passed in Russia and like-minded countries as their failures become more apparent and the global economy tanks)
3) Nothing close to the facts are out yet. It will take years -- if we ever find out -- and it's just plain stupid to make these sorts of decisions on gut instinct, appealing to emotion, and without any concrete information. (And even if it *was* not from the wet markets -- you mean like Chernobyl, the Trinity Test, Three Mile Island, Acid Rain, producing the most carbon emissions per capita for decades...)

[dabigv13]

Chairman of JCS throwing some cold water on this-

https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/...86529?s=20

Kept trying to embed this but cant figure it out.

[dabigv13]

Chairman of JCS throwing some cold water on this-

https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/...86529?s=20

Kept trying to embed this but cant figure it out.

[cardcrimson]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

[cardcrimson]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

[2006alum]

Chairman of JCS throwing some cold water on this-

https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/...86529?s=20

Kept trying to embed this but cant figure it out.

If you want to embed a tweet by copy-pasting the link, you can type [ t w e e t]link[/ t w e e t] (without the spaces). It will show up as just the embedded tweet.

However, I find I need to remove formatting for the embedded link to show the tweet. You can do that by selecting the line of text with the embedded link, and then clicking the A with the red circle beneath it.

---

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

Again, I will ask: does it bother you that U.S. State Dep't diplomats who sent those cables were begging the higher ups in State and in the federal government to intervene and help enhance security, but those calls fell on deaf ears? If we assume this did spread from a lab, shouldn't we ask ourselves why we knew there was a risk of catastrophic outcomes two years in advance and yet did nothing?

[2006alum]

Chairman of JCS throwing some cold water on this-

https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/...86529?s=20

Kept trying to embed this but cant figure it out.

If you want to embed a tweet by copy-pasting the link, you can type [ t w e e t]link[/ t w e e t] (without the spaces). It will show up as just the embedded tweet.

However, I find I need to remove formatting for the embedded link to show the tweet. You can do that by selecting the line of text with the embedded link, and then clicking the A with the red circle beneath it.

---

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

Again, I will ask: does it bother you that U.S. State Dep't diplomats who sent those cables were begging the higher ups in State and in the federal government to intervene and help enhance security, but those calls fell on deaf ears? If we assume this did spread from a lab, shouldn't we ask ourselves why we knew there was a risk of catastrophic outcomes two years in advance and yet did nothing?

[teejers1]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

I have a more fundamental question that pertains to this and other topics:  why are some people so vested in the belief that (a) the virus did not reach the US until late January/February versus earlier, and/or (b) the virus must have started in late 2019?  Who cares at this point?

Is it because if it's been around longer than originally thought, then the spread modeling being used now is inaccurate?  I guess I "get' that, but again, as a layman my big concern is ability of hospitals to be able to treat those that need it.  Can't you just say "we are at capacity, thus we shouldn't pull back on restrictions," or "we have excess beds and equipment and can handle more cases," which militates in favor of loosening to some extent?

Anyway, I find it interesting that people tweet their absolute certainty that this didn't arrive in US till February; or alternatively, those insisting that the virus was here earlier than initially believed.  I don't "get" why it is such a big deal either way.

[teejers1]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

I have a more fundamental question that pertains to this and other topics:  why are some people so vested in the belief that (a) the virus did not reach the US until late January/February versus earlier, and/or (b) the virus must have started in late 2019?  Who cares at this point?

Is it because if it's been around longer than originally thought, then the spread modeling being used now is inaccurate?  I guess I "get' that, but again, as a layman my big concern is ability of hospitals to be able to treat those that need it.  Can't you just say "we are at capacity, thus we shouldn't pull back on restrictions," or "we have excess beds and equipment and can handle more cases," which militates in favor of loosening to some extent?

Anyway, I find it interesting that people tweet their absolute certainty that this didn't arrive in US till February; or alternatively, those insisting that the virus was here earlier than initially believed.  I don't "get" why it is such a big deal either way.

[OutsiderFan]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

Scientists have been predicting the transmission of a zoonotic virus to humans that would cause a global pandemic, for over a decade. It's why Bush and Obama were so keen on being prepared for it. 

Some more facts. Degradation of environments that put humans closer to animals that carry novel viruses, is only going to happen more, not less frequently. So again, even if the virus accidentally escaped a lab, what difference does it exactly make? I don't believe humans have any Devine Right to populate the Earth any more than any other species. Life is a competition. Humans now face the need to adapt in ways we haven't needed to in a generation, or maybe even longer. Let's see if we can. Casting blame for how it got started does us absolutely zero good right now, and in fact, makes things far worse.

---

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

I have a more fundamental question that pertains to this and other topics:  why are some people so vested in the belief that (a) the virus did not reach the US until late January/February versus earlier, and/or (b) the virus must have started in late 2019?  Who cares at this point?

Is it because if it's been around longer than originally thought, then the spread modeling being used now is inaccurate?  I guess I "get' that, but again, as a layman my big concern is ability of hospitals to be able to treat those that need it.  Can't you just say "we are at capacity, thus we shouldn't pull back on restrictions," or "we have excess beds and equipment and can handle more cases," which militates in favor of loosening to some extent?

Anyway, I find it interesting that people tweet their absolute certainty that this didn't arrive in US till February; or alternatively, those insisting that the virus was here earlier than initially believed.  I don't "get" why it is such a big deal either way.

It's a big deal because knowing when it is introduced helps track spread.  I posted this earlier, but I'll do it again, since it directly answers the question:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

Because it doesn't fit with your narrative, that the Chinese government has been fantastic in fighting this disease, it becomes the dumbest thing you've seen today and Washington Post should be better? 

Perhaps it matters so it never happens again. Perhaps it didn't come from a wet market, after all.

Scientists have been predicting the transmission of a zoonotic virus to humans that would cause a global pandemic, for over a decade. It's why Bush and Obama were so keen on being prepared for it. 

Some more facts. Degradation of environments that put humans closer to animals that carry novel viruses, is only going to happen more, not less frequently. So again, even if the virus accidentally escaped a lab, what difference does it exactly make? I don't believe humans have any Devine Right to populate the Earth any more than any other species. Life is a competition. Humans now face the need to adapt in ways we haven't needed to in a generation, or maybe even longer. Let's see if we can. Casting blame for how it got started does us absolutely zero good right now, and in fact, makes things far worse.

---

This is the dumbest thing I've seen today.

Given what is happening now, how does the fact Chinese scientists studied the bat virus two years ago matter even a little bit? Likely millions of bats carry SARS-CoV-2. If the virus lab were next to the Russian border, how would that have prevented one of these millions of bats from infecting something that made it to the Wuhan wet market and launched the pandemic?

The Washington Post is suppose to be better than this.

I have a more fundamental question that pertains to this and other topics:  why are some people so vested in the belief that (a) the virus did not reach the US until late January/February versus earlier, and/or (b) the virus must have started in late 2019?  Who cares at this point?

Is it because if it's been around longer than originally thought, then the spread modeling being used now is inaccurate?  I guess I "get' that, but again, as a layman my big concern is ability of hospitals to be able to treat those that need it.  Can't you just say "we are at capacity, thus we shouldn't pull back on restrictions," or "we have excess beds and equipment and can handle more cases," which militates in favor of loosening to some extent?

Anyway, I find it interesting that people tweet their absolute certainty that this didn't arrive in US till February; or alternatively, those insisting that the virus was here earlier than initially believed.  I don't "get" why it is such a big deal either way.

It's a big deal because knowing when it is introduced helps track spread.  I posted this earlier, but I'll do it again, since it directly answers the question:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321[/tweet]