(04-22-2020, 10:49 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: Not sure I'd jump to saying there are X number of "lives ruined" for every COVID-19 death. Losing a job sucks. Does not mean their lives are ruined. Deaths on the other hand are irreversible. I think you can use better language here.
JAF, didn't you hear? "There are more important things than living."
[tweet]https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1252652590740967425?s=20[/tweet]
(04-22-2020, 09:03 PM)Mick Wrote: OK, let's start with my firm. We have a committee to return to work, I serve on it, along with about 20 of my peers from various staffing functions. Our head of security heads up the committee, as he should. We are planning for anything from a 10% to 40% dip this quarter (annualized), with a "V"-shaped rebound to revenue normalcy in Q3, starting July 1. We're reaching out to clients regularly in anticipation of the explosive economic rebound that everyone on this board swears will happen. I run sales and marketing, so it better happen. If we have the "Nike swoosh" recovery or the "W" shaped recovery, then there will be more layoffs, throughout America. I saw a 60 million unemployed prediction. It isn't far-fetched or worst-case in my opinion.
As for what I propose, I proposed it two weeks ago. Summarized in a sentence, it isn't any different than anyone advocates on this board: I advocate using every measure of caution without going overboard. But we all have different definitions of overboard. We need to go back to work, or there won't be an America to return to. Frankly, it's probably already too late.
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19370
Tomorrow's 4.5 million will mean 26.534 million unemployed in just six weeks. That takes America to over 16% unemployed. That's a little over 500 jobs lost, about 1,500 lives ruined for every COVID-19 death in America to date.
FWIW (maybe not much), I'm with you in thinking this is not going to be a V-shaped recovery and that everyone - the media, politicians, and some on this board - are discounting the amount of economic suffering that has already happened and will be exacerbated soon. To me, the best solution would be:
-monthly stimulus checks in the $1,200-2,000 range (adjusted within that range for cost of living of tax filing address for the most recent of 2018 or 2019 (which could be eased within 6 months as things start to rebound)
-massive stimulus funding to expand medicaid to take on any recently unemployed;
-12-18-month grants to states and localities to train and hire the unemployed as contact tracers, fever checkers at public transportation and high-density entry points; and
-funding to massive scaling up in testing, as well as free forehead thermometers for every person and business in the country.
Furthermore (and I realize this would/could never happen), I'd like any aid to be conditioned on renters reporting what portion, if any, of their monthly rent they're paying, landlords reporting what percentage of their monthly rents they're taking in compared to "business as usual," and all recipients reporting their employment status as compared to this time last year.
It is my strong belief that the reason why Wall Street is being prioritized over Main Street is that it is very easy to ascertain what volume of corporate debt will default and by what date, and to respond accordingly. Our aggregated data for renters, landlords, and the un- and under-employed is based on imperfect surveys that are often weeks behind real time. When you have limited resources and well-resourced constituencies, you respond to the need you can quantify (and hear on the other end of the phone) over the one you can't quantify easily and will never hear from directly. This is where a 50-state unemployment system and a 50-state landlord/tenant scheme makes it very hard to quantify the need and scale of potential federal intervention.
For the same reason, I'd like to see every national newspaper/news site run a daily photo spread of lines for food banks, unemployment queues, etc. I truly think both our leaders and our media elites are largely overlooking the pain felt on the ground.
All of that being said, however, I am still of the belief that simply saying we need to "re-open" the economy will do very little until we have the pieces in place to make that sustainable. And I do think this virus is very, very bad. I've said this once but I'll say it again, using 8.4 million as the denominator for the population of NYC is a fiction, because probably close to 20-30% of full-time NYC residents left the city 3-4 weeks ago. (My informal survey among friends and colleagues is running close to 50/50.) And even if they caught it before they left the city, they would be dying outside NYC, and therefore not being counted in NYC's numbers. My guess is that the true denominator is closer to 6 million, which would suggest NYC's IFR is even worse than some are estimating. Privacy be damned, we could just ask Google and Apple for the data, and I'm sure they could provide the aggregated, anonymized numbers of GPS pings in NYC vs. this time last year. I'd be shocked if it's not at least 30% lower.

