06-27-2020, 09:45 AM
![[Image: unemployment-2-graphic_2.jpg]](https://h7f7z2r7.stackpathcdn.com/sites/default/files/unemployment-2-graphic_2.jpg)
Initial jobless claims worse than forecast for second straight week. Ongoing claims declined to a mere 19.5 million.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-initi...econd-week
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Initial and ongoing unemployment claims
Initial jobless claims worse than forecast for second straight week. Ongoing claims declined to a mere 19.5 million.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-initi...econd-week
Audaces fortuna iuvat
Initial jobless claims worse than forecast for second straight week. Ongoing claims declined to a mere 19.5 million.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-initi...econd-week
Audaces fortuna iuvat
06-27-2020, 10:40 AM
(06-27-2020, 09:45 AM)Mick Wrote:We are likely hitting a second phase of unemployment. These are places that didn't really anticipate their businesses would be directly impacted by shelter-in-place, but do expect to be impacted significantly by a soft economy if COVID is slows things for 12 or more months.
Initial jobless claims worse than forecast for second straight week. Ongoing claims declined to a mere 19.5 million.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-initi...econd-week
Much like a stone in a puddle the COVID impact ripple should diminish as it spreads, but my general sense has been that secondary and tertiary impacts are not fully included in unemployment claims yet. I suspect these are the business sectors President Trump hopes will avoid layoffs until mid-November by consistently talking about the virus going away soon and/or a vaccine coming before end of year.
Frugal companies probably are beginning layoffs banking on the idea that if a miracle upswing does happen in 6-9 months there will be plenty of available workers should workforce expansion be required.
The key variable in the mix is control over COVID. As long as the underlying COVID health crisis dominates the rational economy choices by consumers and businesses will continue to slow the economy. Nearly free money (Congress) and cheap loans (Fed) can only do so much if everyone remains fixated on ever growing COVID death count.
The USA's COVID peer group appears to be Sweden, Mexico, Brazil and the UK. The countries in this group are likely to become increasing isolated by the rest of the world because of their COVID cases. And that global isolation probably would compound the economic challenges.
I really wish the USA was in the peer group with Germany, South Korea, and Australia, but at this point the best economic move is to assume the USA will not be in that club. Bring on more layoffs. :(
(06-27-2020, 09:45 AM)Mick Wrote:We are likely hitting a second phase of unemployment. These are places that didn't really anticipate their businesses would be directly impacted by shelter-in-place, but do expect to be impacted significantly by a soft economy if COVID is slows things for 12 or more months.
Initial jobless claims worse than forecast for second straight week. Ongoing claims declined to a mere 19.5 million.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-initi...econd-week
Much like a stone in a puddle the COVID impact ripple should diminish as it spreads, but my general sense has been that secondary and tertiary impacts are not fully included in unemployment claims yet. I suspect these are the business sectors President Trump hopes will avoid layoffs until mid-November by consistently talking about the virus going away soon and/or a vaccine coming before end of year.
Frugal companies probably are beginning layoffs banking on the idea that if a miracle upswing does happen in 6-9 months there will be plenty of available workers should workforce expansion be required.
The key variable in the mix is control over COVID. As long as the underlying COVID health crisis dominates the rational economy choices by consumers and businesses will continue to slow the economy. Nearly free money (Congress) and cheap loans (Fed) can only do so much if everyone remains fixated on ever growing COVID death count.
The USA's COVID peer group appears to be Sweden, Mexico, Brazil and the UK. The countries in this group are likely to become increasing isolated by the rest of the world because of their COVID cases. And that global isolation probably would compound the economic challenges.
I really wish the USA was in the peer group with Germany, South Korea, and Australia, but at this point the best economic move is to assume the USA will not be in that club. Bring on more layoffs. :(
06-27-2020, 12:16 PM
Some jobs are currently being maintained by the Paycheck Protection Program. The effects of that will gradually be wearing off.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
Some jobs are currently being maintained by the Paycheck Protection Program. The effects of that will gradually be wearing off.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
06-27-2020, 12:54 PM
(06-27-2020, 12:16 PM)chrisk Wrote: It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.Have no fear there....
Either POTUS46 (2021 or 2025) and Congress will have to get the USA's upper middle class and above to pay down a lot of this debt
and/or
China will stop buying up everything which will drive up USA interest rates
and/or
The USA will just print a bunch of money
Of the three only the POTUS46 and Congress option looks appealing to me, and like most of you that would be a financial negative for me. But the other two alternatives historically don't end very well at all. Much like this pandemic I am not super sure the average American appreciates the financial pain we will see in this upcoming decade.
That is all for a different time. At the moment got to keep people safe and the economy relatively stable.
POTUS46 (2021 or 2025) might become a one-term President because paying for (or being forced to pay for) our COVID stimulus and COVID mistakes will be very unpopular medicine.
(06-27-2020, 12:16 PM)chrisk Wrote: It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.Have no fear there....
Either POTUS46 (2021 or 2025) and Congress will have to get the USA's upper middle class and above to pay down a lot of this debt
and/or
China will stop buying up everything which will drive up USA interest rates
and/or
The USA will just print a bunch of money
Of the three only the POTUS46 and Congress option looks appealing to me, and like most of you that would be a financial negative for me. But the other two alternatives historically don't end very well at all. Much like this pandemic I am not super sure the average American appreciates the financial pain we will see in this upcoming decade.
That is all for a different time. At the moment got to keep people safe and the economy relatively stable.
POTUS46 (2021 or 2025) might become a one-term President because paying for (or being forced to pay for) our COVID stimulus and COVID mistakes will be very unpopular medicine.
06-28-2020, 01:28 AM
Maybe it'll be worth revisiting the idea of increasing that highest tax bracket percentage again that the US has been pushing down over the last few decades. Pursuing tax cheats more effectively and bumping the short-term capital gains tax would be fun to think about.
Maybe it'll be worth revisiting the idea of increasing that highest tax bracket percentage again that the US has been pushing down over the last few decades. Pursuing tax cheats more effectively and bumping the short-term capital gains tax would be fun to think about.
(06-27-2020, 12:16 PM)chrisk Wrote: Some jobs are currently being maintained by the Paycheck Protection Program. The effects of that will gradually be wearing off.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
I don't think it will be gradual. The stimulus part of the payroll package ends on July 31 without extension by Congress. I've heard from my furloughed employees, they're very concerned. Five of the eight were made fully whole between unemployment and the $600/month stimulus package. If the stimulus is not renewed, the pain will be very deep.
(06-28-2020, 01:28 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Maybe it'll be worth revisiting the idea of increasing that highest tax bracket percentage again that the US has been pushing down over the last few decades. Pursuing tax cheats more effectively and bumping the short-term capital gains tax would be fun to think about.
Based upon the Willie Sutton principle, I'd like to see a wealth tax, particularly a confiscatory inheritance tax. Frankly, I'd rather see a wealth tax and a reduced income tax.
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(06-27-2020, 12:16 PM)chrisk Wrote: Some jobs are currently being maintained by the Paycheck Protection Program. The effects of that will gradually be wearing off.
The economy has being propped up by tremendous fiscal support over the last 3 months.
There clearly needs to be another fiscal influx by the end of July or the economy will take another downturn.
In the meantime, the well-off continue to do quite well and are savings tons of money.
It might be time for the country to ask them to make more than token sacrifices on behalf of those who have lost their jobs because the well-off are saving so much.
I don't think it will be gradual. The stimulus part of the payroll package ends on July 31 without extension by Congress. I've heard from my furloughed employees, they're very concerned. Five of the eight were made fully whole between unemployment and the $600/month stimulus package. If the stimulus is not renewed, the pain will be very deep.
(06-28-2020, 01:28 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Maybe it'll be worth revisiting the idea of increasing that highest tax bracket percentage again that the US has been pushing down over the last few decades. Pursuing tax cheats more effectively and bumping the short-term capital gains tax would be fun to think about.
Based upon the Willie Sutton principle, I'd like to see a wealth tax, particularly a confiscatory inheritance tax. Frankly, I'd rather see a wealth tax and a reduced income tax.
Audaces fortuna iuvat
06-28-2020, 11:26 AM
Not sure we can do a wealth or asset tax given the number of Americans with foreign assets and lack of ability to compel discovery, so to speak, in some jurisdictions outside the USA. (If you can't enforce the law, then the law is not worth having, so they say.) Philosophically, I'm not sure the idea of taxing asset ownership is very palatable, even if you restricted it to taxpayers reporting net worths greater than, say, $5mil.
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
Not sure we can do a wealth or asset tax given the number of Americans with foreign assets and lack of ability to compel discovery, so to speak, in some jurisdictions outside the USA. (If you can't enforce the law, then the law is not worth having, so they say.) Philosophically, I'm not sure the idea of taxing asset ownership is very palatable, even if you restricted it to taxpayers reporting net worths greater than, say, $5mil.
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
06-29-2020, 08:47 AM
(06-28-2020, 11:26 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Not sure we can do a wealth or asset tax given the number of Americans with foreign assets and lack of ability to compel discovery, so to speak, in some jurisdictions outside the USA. (If you can't enforce the law, then the law is not worth having, so they say.) Philosophically, I'm not sure the idea of taxing asset ownership is very palatable, even if you restricted it to taxpayers reporting net worths greater than, say, $5mil.
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
I think after four years of Trump and his tax cuts, the voting populace will be screaming for ways to even out the playing field. Estate taxes and wealth taxes are two such methods. Elizabeth Warren suggested same, and whether or not she is the VP candidate (as I think she will be), I think that Americans are ripe and ready for new tax legislation aimed at the rich, the super rich, the filthy rich, and -- when you boil it right down -- the upper middle class and the middle class. New taxes for all.
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(06-28-2020, 11:26 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Not sure we can do a wealth or asset tax given the number of Americans with foreign assets and lack of ability to compel discovery, so to speak, in some jurisdictions outside the USA. (If you can't enforce the law, then the law is not worth having, so they say.) Philosophically, I'm not sure the idea of taxing asset ownership is very palatable, even if you restricted it to taxpayers reporting net worths greater than, say, $5mil.
There are very effective ways to sidestep the inheritance tax as currently written, and I am not sure how you would put teeth into a more comprehensive inheritance tax framework (but yes, I agree that the idea is nice).
I think after four years of Trump and his tax cuts, the voting populace will be screaming for ways to even out the playing field. Estate taxes and wealth taxes are two such methods. Elizabeth Warren suggested same, and whether or not she is the VP candidate (as I think she will be), I think that Americans are ripe and ready for new tax legislation aimed at the rich, the super rich, the filthy rich, and -- when you boil it right down -- the upper middle class and the middle class. New taxes for all.
Audaces fortuna iuvat
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