[JustAnotherFan]

Some of the comments on that SD nurse tweet thread show the ugliness and stupidity of some Americans.  Apparently there was a "doctor" on that thread who said the nurse must be making it up because he'd never encountered it and had far-right parents who believed in the virus.

We're just at the early stage of the winter rush so I hope there's some coordinated way to support mental health for frontline healthcare, but seriously doubt anything will happen at the fed level.  Maybe states will start paying attention.

Another tough tweet:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/M_Bennett9/status/1327645025149259778?s=20[/tweet]

I put a space between the brackets and the actual url. Seems to work for me for some reason.

Can't seem to embed the tweet although I see some people using the 

Code:

[tweet] [/tweet]

tags.  Doesn't work for me :/

[JustAnotherFan]

Some of the comments on that SD nurse tweet thread show the ugliness and stupidity of some Americans.  Apparently there was a "doctor" on that thread who said the nurse must be making it up because he'd never encountered it and had far-right parents who believed in the virus.

We're just at the early stage of the winter rush so I hope there's some coordinated way to support mental health for frontline healthcare, but seriously doubt anything will happen at the fed level.  Maybe states will start paying attention.

Another tough tweet:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/M_Bennett9/status/1327645025149259778?s=20[/tweet]

I put a space between the brackets and the actual url. Seems to work for me for some reason.

Can't seem to embed the tweet although I see some people using the 

Code:

[tweet] [/tweet]

tags.  Doesn't work for me :/

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1328523632583307267?s=20[/tweet]

Even Sweden is joining the fun this time around.

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1328523632583307267?s=20[/tweet]

Even Sweden is joining the fun this time around.

BC

[OutsiderFan]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

[OutsiderFan]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

[Genuine Realist]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

[Genuine Realist]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

[Snorlax94]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

Another case of undermining a public official, in this case a public health official, due to politics, despite the fact that the public health official has expertise and access to county private data, and you do not.

And You don’t know anyone who celebrated Halloween? Then you don’t know many people. When I drove home Halloween night , I saw dozens of trick or treaters out at that moment, and I saw a good number outside. I’d estimate trick or treating was down 60-70% in my neighborhood from a typical year, but still quite significant.

[Snorlax94]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

Another case of undermining a public official, in this case a public health official, due to politics, despite the fact that the public health official has expertise and access to county private data, and you do not.

And You don’t know anyone who celebrated Halloween? Then you don’t know many people. When I drove home Halloween night , I saw dozens of trick or treaters out at that moment, and I saw a good number outside. I’d estimate trick or treating was down 60-70% in my neighborhood from a typical year, but still quite significant.

[akiddoc]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

Our neighbors across the street went 7 months without guests, then had at least 2 families of relatives over for Halloween. I know the relatives went out the door without masks. I do not know what isolation or testing they might have gone through prior to that time, but it seems to me that Halloween isn't important enough for that. We do know them pretty well and we know they have been very careful up to this time.

[akiddoc]

I screamed out loud tonight when I heard a Bay Area county health official say his office traces the latest growth in cases to Halloween gatherings.

AYFKM??!?!  We couldn't go one year sitting out Halloween? It's like we pissed away all the progress we had made, that was allowing businesses to be open to some level, so they can shut down again all so people could put on stupid costumes with each other.

Just infuriating.

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

Our neighbors across the street went 7 months without guests, then had at least 2 families of relatives over for Halloween. I know the relatives went out the door without masks. I do not know what isolation or testing they might have gone through prior to that time, but it seems to me that Halloween isn't important enough for that. We do know them pretty well and we know they have been very careful up to this time.

[Hurlburt88]

a bunch of my neighbors had a Halloween party.   Started outside but moved inside.

[Hurlburt88]

a bunch of my neighbors had a Halloween party.   Started outside but moved inside.

[2006alum]

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

My cousins had an indoor halloween party with two other families supposedly all part of the same bubble. Two weeks later, 2/3 of the adults and kids have come down with COVID. 

But yes, there is wisdom in your observation that talk is cheap...

[2006alum]

Really? I don't know anyone who celebrated Halloween.

I put the official's comment in the 'talk is cheap' category.

My cousins had an indoor halloween party with two other families supposedly all part of the same bubble. Two weeks later, 2/3 of the adults and kids have come down with COVID. 

But yes, there is wisdom in your observation that talk is cheap...

[M T]

My cousins had an indoor halloween party with two other families supposedly all part of the same bubble. Two weeks later, 2/3 of the adults and kids have come down with COVID.

I'm sorry to hear that for any individuals, and for the whole set of people related to this board, across our country, and across the world.  Perhaps a slim sliver of silver lining is that likely there was less of this for Halloween than they would have been for Thanksgiving.  I hope the current outbreak will slam the brakes on many holiday parties that would have caused an even bigger outbreak.

Yeah, its kinda like saying you got knocked out by hitting your head on something, but at least it didn't kill you. 

I think Thanksgiving is primarily a US holiday, but worldwide there are various holidays in December.  My guess is we'll peak in late January, but I hope more people can hunker down and stay home through much of it.

There is another way to stay 6' away from everybody.

[M T]

My cousins had an indoor halloween party with two other families supposedly all part of the same bubble. Two weeks later, 2/3 of the adults and kids have come down with COVID.

I'm sorry to hear that for any individuals, and for the whole set of people related to this board, across our country, and across the world.  Perhaps a slim sliver of silver lining is that likely there was less of this for Halloween than they would have been for Thanksgiving.  I hope the current outbreak will slam the brakes on many holiday parties that would have caused an even bigger outbreak.

Yeah, its kinda like saying you got knocked out by hitting your head on something, but at least it didn't kill you. 

I think Thanksgiving is primarily a US holiday, but worldwide there are various holidays in December.  My guess is we'll peak in late January, but I hope more people can hunker down and stay home through much of it.

There is another way to stay 6' away from everybody.

[OutsiderFan]

Go on Instagram and you'll see how many Halloween gatherings there were.  I don't use IG because it is a Facebook company, but I have seen many pictures online and had people who do use it share with me what they saw.

[OutsiderFan]

Go on Instagram and you'll see how many Halloween gatherings there were.  I don't use IG because it is a Facebook company, but I have seen many pictures online and had people who do use it share with me what they saw.

[Goose]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

[Goose]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

[Genuine Realist]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

[Genuine Realist]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

[Goose]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

GR, not sure it what manner your reply is tied to my post. I was posting regarding the hope that Thanksgiving get togethers would be reduced in response to the spread, nothing about Halloween at all. I am concerned that older people, who generally are careful, seem to be not behaving that way in regard to Thanksgiving. Granted, what I am hearing about plans may not be typical, but I am concerned that in fact they ARE typical. From what I am hearing, that could be too true. The fact that it is a "private" group possibly conveys an illusion of safety.

FWIW, in my neighborhood Halloween was not celebrated, and there were no "trick or treat" at all.

[Goose]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

GR, not sure it what manner your reply is tied to my post. I was posting regarding the hope that Thanksgiving get togethers would be reduced in response to the spread, nothing about Halloween at all. I am concerned that older people, who generally are careful, seem to be not behaving that way in regard to Thanksgiving. Granted, what I am hearing about plans may not be typical, but I am concerned that in fact they ARE typical. From what I am hearing, that could be too true. The fact that it is a "private" group possibly conveys an illusion of safety.

FWIW, in my neighborhood Halloween was not celebrated, and there were no "trick or treat" at all.

[Mick]

In no particular order:

1)  I live in Willow Glen, in an area that's probably the bottom rung of very nice areas.  Very close to us is a heavily populated, economically disadvantaged area of hard working blue collar folks.  Our houses are small, close to the street, on very narrow lots, and the area is quite safe.  In other words, we're a magnet for the 1,000 to 1,500 trick or treaters we typically get, though we start a bit late (6 p.m.) and close down by 8:00 p.m.  The people on our block who welcome trick-or-treaters all afternoon and until 10 p.m. say they get 2,000.

This year, our three block street agreed to host a trick or treating event on October 25 for the neighborhood kids.  We put tables with candy at the end of our driveways, and sat back about 10 feet.  About 40 kids participated.  Most people shut down for Halloween on October 31, to the point of putting up signs, yellow tape, orange cones, traffic sawhorses and the like.  Only about 1/2 dozen houses of the 40 or so were open to the public, and they took pains for safety, essentially leaving a tub of candy near the sidewalk with signs in four languages to take one or two pieces.

Here's the thing...over 400 people still visited our neighborhood.  The first family I saw was a husband, wife and five year old princess, and we spoke from porch to sidewalk (20 feet).  They were utterly, completely, and totally mystified that the street was shut down, and that every house wasn't open.  They'd heard of COVID, they didn't have masks, figured they were outside so no one would get infected.

2)  I hear you with respect to the vulnerable population.  But the worst scofflaws I've seen are the very old people who just don't want to bother.  They roll their eyes, they object, they complain, they refuse.  And they do it so vehemently, that people who care for them give in. They didn't live through the Spanish flu, most of them were born in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s.

3)  I had posted that my goddaughter (daughter of my college roommate, I introduced their parents) was getting married in November in Los Angeles County.  The wedding is Saturday.  The family is resolute about having a traditional wedding and reception.  Their only concession is to move the wedding outside.

Somehow, they are attempting to avoid the new Los Angeles County restrictions.  First, only three households are allowed to gather, including the host household.  Second, it must be less than two hours long.  Third, food and beverages must be served in separate, single-serving containers.  Must be in an open space, and if you have a canopy, at least three sides need to be open (I don't trust the "outdoor" tents with four sides that some businesses are using) Everyone must wear face coverings and must be at least six feet from non-household members.  The host needs to list names, addresses and contact information for contact tracing purposes.  Knowing the mother of the bride, I suspect she'll try to avoid these restrictions to the extent possible.

We had a minor health scare in our household, so we won't be able to travel, and the family understood.  But...boy I was nervous about this.

[Mick]

In no particular order:

1)  I live in Willow Glen, in an area that's probably the bottom rung of very nice areas.  Very close to us is a heavily populated, economically disadvantaged area of hard working blue collar folks.  Our houses are small, close to the street, on very narrow lots, and the area is quite safe.  In other words, we're a magnet for the 1,000 to 1,500 trick or treaters we typically get, though we start a bit late (6 p.m.) and close down by 8:00 p.m.  The people on our block who welcome trick-or-treaters all afternoon and until 10 p.m. say they get 2,000.

This year, our three block street agreed to host a trick or treating event on October 25 for the neighborhood kids.  We put tables with candy at the end of our driveways, and sat back about 10 feet.  About 40 kids participated.  Most people shut down for Halloween on October 31, to the point of putting up signs, yellow tape, orange cones, traffic sawhorses and the like.  Only about 1/2 dozen houses of the 40 or so were open to the public, and they took pains for safety, essentially leaving a tub of candy near the sidewalk with signs in four languages to take one or two pieces.

Here's the thing...over 400 people still visited our neighborhood.  The first family I saw was a husband, wife and five year old princess, and we spoke from porch to sidewalk (20 feet).  They were utterly, completely, and totally mystified that the street was shut down, and that every house wasn't open.  They'd heard of COVID, they didn't have masks, figured they were outside so no one would get infected.

2)  I hear you with respect to the vulnerable population.  But the worst scofflaws I've seen are the very old people who just don't want to bother.  They roll their eyes, they object, they complain, they refuse.  And they do it so vehemently, that people who care for them give in. They didn't live through the Spanish flu, most of them were born in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s.

3)  I had posted that my goddaughter (daughter of my college roommate, I introduced their parents) was getting married in November in Los Angeles County.  The wedding is Saturday.  The family is resolute about having a traditional wedding and reception.  Their only concession is to move the wedding outside.

Somehow, they are attempting to avoid the new Los Angeles County restrictions.  First, only three households are allowed to gather, including the host household.  Second, it must be less than two hours long.  Third, food and beverages must be served in separate, single-serving containers.  Must be in an open space, and if you have a canopy, at least three sides need to be open (I don't trust the "outdoor" tents with four sides that some businesses are using) Everyone must wear face coverings and must be at least six feet from non-household members.  The host needs to list names, addresses and contact information for contact tracing purposes.  Knowing the mother of the bride, I suspect she'll try to avoid these restrictions to the extent possible.

We had a minor health scare in our household, so we won't be able to travel, and the family understood.  But...boy I was nervous about this.

[Farm93]

Seems easy enough to imagine that during contact tracing health care officials discovered Halloween activities were a new variable.   Why must some Americans immediately assume any comment from any public health official is a lie?   Sigh...

My neighbors converted their backyard into a gathering of ~20 adults.   Crazy, IMHO, but I am sure they felt confident it would be fine since they were outside.  There was a lot of that going around in late October as I recall.   Everything was probably OK if you are outdoors, or if contact is less than 15 minutes, or whatever.   Loads of ways for people to then imagine an outdoor street festival or party might be safe enough given the messaging some politicians without science or medical training were dishing out at that time.

However, if Halloween caused any uptake at all then Thanksgiving and Christmas will create a mountain of cases across the USA.  

For reasons I don't understand, Americans seem determined to have Thanksgiving and Christmas activities with families. Our most vulnerable Americans are so close to making it to a vaccine, and it would be tragic for them to have sacrificed for 10 months only to get COVID mere weeks before they would be eligible for a vaccine.

[Farm93]

Seems easy enough to imagine that during contact tracing health care officials discovered Halloween activities were a new variable.   Why must some Americans immediately assume any comment from any public health official is a lie?   Sigh...

My neighbors converted their backyard into a gathering of ~20 adults.   Crazy, IMHO, but I am sure they felt confident it would be fine since they were outside.  There was a lot of that going around in late October as I recall.   Everything was probably OK if you are outdoors, or if contact is less than 15 minutes, or whatever.   Loads of ways for people to then imagine an outdoor street festival or party might be safe enough given the messaging some politicians without science or medical training were dishing out at that time.

However, if Halloween caused any uptake at all then Thanksgiving and Christmas will create a mountain of cases across the USA.  

For reasons I don't understand, Americans seem determined to have Thanksgiving and Christmas activities with families. Our most vulnerable Americans are so close to making it to a vaccine, and it would be tragic for them to have sacrificed for 10 months only to get COVID mere weeks before they would be eligible for a vaccine.

[Goose]

Loads of ways for people to then imagine an outdoor street festival or party might be safe enough given the messaging some politicians without science or medical training were dishing out at that time.

I am quite sure that the actual facts are that even people WITH science and medical training are unsure of the actual effects of many activities. There are just too many variables in any given activity, even if we had data to say the effects of each one. In general, we don't have that data because this is a new virus with unique characteristics. A lot of things we just can't yet know, at least not precisely. A few years from now we may. A lot of public policy right now is of necessity a "best guess". Unfortunately, many people don't take even these "best guesses" to heart.

[Goose]

Loads of ways for people to then imagine an outdoor street festival or party might be safe enough given the messaging some politicians without science or medical training were dishing out at that time.

I am quite sure that the actual facts are that even people WITH science and medical training are unsure of the actual effects of many activities. There are just too many variables in any given activity, even if we had data to say the effects of each one. In general, we don't have that data because this is a new virus with unique characteristics. A lot of things we just can't yet know, at least not precisely. A few years from now we may. A lot of public policy right now is of necessity a "best guess". Unfortunately, many people don't take even these "best guesses" to heart.

[Genuine Realist]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

GR, not sure it what manner your reply is tied to my post. I was posting regarding the hope that Thanksgiving get togethers would be reduced in response to the spread, nothing about Halloween at all. I am concerned that older people, who generally are careful, seem to be not behaving that way in regard to Thanksgiving. Granted, what I am hearing about plans may not be typical, but I am concerned that in fact they ARE typical. From what I am hearing, that could be too true. The fact that it is a "private" group possibly conveys an illusion of safety.

FWIW, in my neighborhood Halloween was not celebrated, and there were no "trick or treat" at all.

By the nature of a discussion board, later posts seem to be a comment on all earlier ones. 

I was actually commenting on one above yours. I questioned whether the spike in cases was Halloween related, because my own experience was of a complete avoidance of Halloween events, particularly trick-or-treaters. I'm just not buying into that.

Mick's post above describes what I would expect as the most aggressive behavior in this county relative to Halloween - and it isn't all that aggressive. The wedding, on the other hand, seems to me beyond the pale.

Finally, as to Farm 93, I fully understand why people want family gatherings on Thanksgiving and Christmas, particularly in this year, which has been apocalyptic in so many ways. Most of us on this board find the Internet connection adequate - Zoom, Google Meet, or Facetime. But not everyone feels that way.

[Genuine Realist]

We often hear about society needing to protect "the most vulnerable". A large part of that group is vulnerable because of age (and possibly other age related conditions). I am in the "older" group. Generally, this group has been "more careful" than younger people. However, even in my extended family, I have cousins that intend to host Thanksgiving gatherings of 30+ people, some of whom will have traveled across state lines to visit. Grandma wants to see the children and grandchildren. I am sure they will eat indoors not wearing masks. Social distancing is certainly not the goal of these celebrations.

They justify this type of activity by saying "It is all the same family". I am sure they realize that this family is spread out geographically, but for some strange reason believe that it won't matter if they do this just once, not every day. Society can't protect people who won't protect themselves. Yes, it sucks a bit to not be able to get together, but the alternative is going to be a lot worse, at least in aggregate. I doubt that anything short of a total lockdown is going to change this situation.

When I said that I didn't know anyone who threw a Halloween party, I included people who have traditionally thrown Halloween parties who did not. The streets of Mountain View, where I live, were deserted. My daughter in Pasadena reported the same thing. She costumed her four year old and one year old, but they did not go out. Nice that some of you know a few people who were contrarians - I don't.

You are free to conclude that wild Halloween parties account for the exponential rise in cases in the last two weeks. I suspect the causes are more varied and complex. 

As for 'undermining the trust of public officials', oh, yeah. That surely is the American tradition - to accept every official pronouncement without question or complaint. Makes perfect sense.

GR, not sure it what manner your reply is tied to my post. I was posting regarding the hope that Thanksgiving get togethers would be reduced in response to the spread, nothing about Halloween at all. I am concerned that older people, who generally are careful, seem to be not behaving that way in regard to Thanksgiving. Granted, what I am hearing about plans may not be typical, but I am concerned that in fact they ARE typical. From what I am hearing, that could be too true. The fact that it is a "private" group possibly conveys an illusion of safety.

FWIW, in my neighborhood Halloween was not celebrated, and there were no "trick or treat" at all.

By the nature of a discussion board, later posts seem to be a comment on all earlier ones. 

I was actually commenting on one above yours. I questioned whether the spike in cases was Halloween related, because my own experience was of a complete avoidance of Halloween events, particularly trick-or-treaters. I'm just not buying into that.

Mick's post above describes what I would expect as the most aggressive behavior in this county relative to Halloween - and it isn't all that aggressive. The wedding, on the other hand, seems to me beyond the pale.

Finally, as to Farm 93, I fully understand why people want family gatherings on Thanksgiving and Christmas, particularly in this year, which has been apocalyptic in so many ways. Most of us on this board find the Internet connection adequate - Zoom, Google Meet, or Facetime. But not everyone feels that way.

[BostonCard]

The messaging has been so messed up

Avoid risk if you can.
Minimize risk if you can't avoid it.

Risk:
Outdoors << Indoors
Masked < Unmasked
Distanced < Packed
Fewer people < More people
Short time < Long time

No single thing will eliminate risk, but risk can be dramatically reduced by taking multiple of the measures above (moving outdoors, wearing masks, limiting attendance and time). 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-swi...1605283134 (may be behind a paywall)

It makes reference to the following "swiss cheese" model of risk reduction



BC

[BostonCard]

The messaging has been so messed up

Avoid risk if you can.
Minimize risk if you can't avoid it.

Risk:
Outdoors << Indoors
Masked < Unmasked
Distanced < Packed
Fewer people < More people
Short time < Long time

No single thing will eliminate risk, but risk can be dramatically reduced by taking multiple of the measures above (moving outdoors, wearing masks, limiting attendance and time). 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-swi...1605283134 (may be behind a paywall)

It makes reference to the following "swiss cheese" model of risk reduction



BC

[oregontim]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

I do see why and how there might be correlation between numbers and general state outlooks, so Texas and Florida, as examples of less rigorous states, might do worse than California and New York. And I also see how the Dakota motorcycle event of 250K+ might have impact on the whole region.

I don't see how the increasing case numbers now have to necessarily tie into holidays or single-cause kinds of events.

[oregontim]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

I do see why and how there might be correlation between numbers and general state outlooks, so Texas and Florida, as examples of less rigorous states, might do worse than California and New York. And I also see how the Dakota motorcycle event of 250K+ might have impact on the whole region.

I don't see how the increasing case numbers now have to necessarily tie into holidays or single-cause kinds of events.

[BostonCard]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

Agreed.  If you look at the COVID-19 cases, there doesn't appear to be a discernable change in the first week of November, when cases contracted during Halloween would be expected to appear.  It seems likely that Halloween festivities, muted as they may have been this year, probably did lead to some transmissions, but to my eye, it is probably not discernable from the transmissions that were occurring already.

Also, focusing on individual events (Halloween, Thanksgiving) might be interpreted by some people as "it's ok to have a gathering as long as it isn't a really big Thankgiving feast".

BC

[BostonCard]

Do we need to tie spikes to events? Labor Day, Halloween, now Thanksgiving? The classic epidemiology model includes the steep curve upwards that looks a lot like the steepest slope of the classic bell curve, doesn't it? So we might be dealing now with the classic uptick with multiple factors including the general exhaustion with isolation, people quietly bending the rules to go to stores, relaxing their diligence.

Agreed.  If you look at the COVID-19 cases, there doesn't appear to be a discernable change in the first week of November, when cases contracted during Halloween would be expected to appear.  It seems likely that Halloween festivities, muted as they may have been this year, probably did lead to some transmissions, but to my eye, it is probably not discernable from the transmissions that were occurring already.

Also, focusing on individual events (Halloween, Thanksgiving) might be interpreted by some people as "it's ok to have a gathering as long as it isn't a really big Thankgiving feast".

BC