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So, last night the 200 breaststroke went according to form, with King finishing second, so that kept Forde on track.
In the 100 free, it went like this:
1. Weitzeil
2. Brown
3. Smoliga
4. Hinds
5. Deloof
6. Schmitt
7. Douglass
8. Mack
Forde wanted both Schmitt and Douglass in the top 6 to feel a bit safer, but she only got one, so the stress ramped up for tonight.
Had Bella Sims or Erica Sullivan finished second to Ledecky in tonight's 800 free (which was hardly a stretch, given they'd qualified second and third, respectively), that would've locked in Forde's spot on the team, but it wasn't to be.
Regan Smith's shock failure to qualify in the 200 back (an event in which she holds the world record) was bad news for American medal hopes in Tokyo, but it had the same effect on Forde's chances of qualifying as the expected Smith-Bacon finish would have, since White was already on the roster. But if Smith could've held on and it was Smith-White or at least White-Smith? That would've locked Forde into the team.
So, with one final left, here's what it means:
The math is pretty simple now. 24 swimmers have locked up spots, and there's just the 50 free to go. Of the eight swimmers in tomorrow night's 50 free final, five have already qualified for the Olympics. If just one of those five makes the top two, then Forde is in as the 26th and last swimmer. But if the top two in the 50 free are both new qualifiers, then Forde is out.
Here are the 8 qualifiers for the 50 free final, in seed (not lane) order, with already-qualified swimmers in italics and their pre-Trials seed in parentheses:
1. Abbey Weitzeil (4)
2. Torri Huske (3)
3. Simone Manuel (1)
4. Linnea Mack (11)
5. Erika Brown (6)
6. Gretchen Walsh (7)
7. Kate Douglass (5)
8. Catie Deloof (8)
If just one of the top two seeds ends up in the top two, she's good. And she's still ok if Manuel is in the top two, as long as Mack or Walsh doesn't join her. A Manuel-Huske finish would have extra Cardinal flavor, with a former and a future Cardinal joining forces to make sure a current one gets on there. It's as simple as that from a Stanford perspective, really. Huske being top two means Forde makes it. Manuel missing the top two also likely means Forde is in.
Man alive, just imagine Forde's mindset tomorrow. Sitting in the stands, knowing your Olympic fate depends on a few hundredths of a second one way or the other. The difference between the fastest swimmer in the semis and 9th place was just under five tenths of a second. 2nd through 4th were within 9 hundredths, 6th through 8th within 4 hundredths. Claire Curzan, the 2nd fastest 50 free swimmer coming in, was .08 out of a spot in the final. It's an absurd race, all over in under 25 seconds. And her Olympic dreams hang in the balance. All the while replaying the 200 free final, knowing that if you'd gone 9 hundredths faster in that race, you'd already be locked into the team. I don't know if I could watch.