[BigJohn043]

It’s possible because it has been done before.  Tyrone Willingham’s record worsened each of his first four years at Stanford, going from 7-4-1 with the recruits he inherited from Bill Walsh in 1995 to 3-8 in 1998.  1999 started inauspiciously with a 69-17 beat down that, let’s face it, was worse than any stinker Shaw put up.  You know how the season ended up, and in fact, cite that team’s offense in contrast to Shaw’s.  I wonder if the Teejers who is convinced that Shaw’s coaching is irreparable and the team incapable of righting itself gave Tyrone Willingham much of a chance to go to the 2000 Rose Bowl.

As humans we put too much weight on easily describable trends, when a lot of what happens in the world is noise.  A few lucky breaks one year have things looking better than they are (you yourself cite last year as an example of a team that lucked into a better record than it deserved).  Conversely, a few bad breaks can leave you convinced that you are in a pit that you will never get out of.  Things don’t look good now, and it is possible that Shaw won’t be able to figure out how to fix it.  But you are much more certain of this than is warranted.

BC

Here is the problem.  Our Sagarin ratings the last three years have been 73, 75 and this year is 78 and going lower.

The much bigger problem is that we are getting killed on the line.  You can always find a great QB, RB or WR, but the line getting better is much harder.

Even if you are a Shaw defender, do you really see us being any better next year?

And I will note that our current three year Sagarin trend is the worst in the last 60 years.  It is only really being matched by Curtice in the early 60s.  And once again, do you really think next year will be any better?

[BigJohn043]

It’s possible because it has been done before.  Tyrone Willingham’s record worsened each of his first four years at Stanford, going from 7-4-1 with the recruits he inherited from Bill Walsh in 1995 to 3-8 in 1998.  1999 started inauspiciously with a 69-17 beat down that, let’s face it, was worse than any stinker Shaw put up.  You know how the season ended up, and in fact, cite that team’s offense in contrast to Shaw’s.  I wonder if the Teejers who is convinced that Shaw’s coaching is irreparable and the team incapable of righting itself gave Tyrone Willingham much of a chance to go to the 2000 Rose Bowl.

As humans we put too much weight on easily describable trends, when a lot of what happens in the world is noise.  A few lucky breaks one year have things looking better than they are (you yourself cite last year as an example of a team that lucked into a better record than it deserved).  Conversely, a few bad breaks can leave you convinced that you are in a pit that you will never get out of.  Things don’t look good now, and it is possible that Shaw won’t be able to figure out how to fix it.  But you are much more certain of this than is warranted.

BC

Here is the problem.  Our Sagarin ratings the last three years have been 73, 75 and this year is 78 and going lower.

The much bigger problem is that we are getting killed on the line.  You can always find a great QB, RB or WR, but the line getting better is much harder.

Even if you are a Shaw defender, do you really see us being any better next year?

And I will note that our current three year Sagarin trend is the worst in the last 60 years.  It is only really being matched by Curtice in the early 60s.  And once again, do you really think next year will be any better?

[teejers1]

I have yet to hear a real reason why anyone would think that's possible, let alone likely.

Not sure about likelihood but this year's recruiting class is a significant cut above recent ones. That doesn't answer all the issues but it seems like a basis for optimism. Also...your bete noir, the "dull, unimaginative offense" is far down the list of reasons for empty seats in the stadium.

---

You're right about Shaw's recent class being good.  But that's not the whole story.  A poster on TOS provides a lot of in-depth factual analyses post-games and during recruiting, and I raised the "Shaw at sea level" topic there (my handle there is SLS), and my takes on same.  The poster perfectly captures my sentiments on where things stand historically with Shaw and why my gut tells me that a clean break gives program more hope going forward.  Rather than trying to summarize, I am just cutting and pasting, confident the guy is fine with it:

+++++++++

I agree that recruiting is now much harder than it was earlier in Shaw's tenure because our football argument now stinks. For much of Stanford football history I think the average was about one top 100 recruit a year with zero being disappointing and two being pretty good. Any year with 3+ was extraordinary. Recruiting got good enough under Shaw that I adjusted my sense of things to two top 100 in a class being more like par for the course and only allowing myself to get excited with the 3+ kind of haul. We're now back to the pre-Shaw situation. If we get 3+ top 100 recruits in 2023 that will be a very big surprise. I think that's a telling and troubling indication of how the recruiting has fallen off.

I also agree that disrupting the status quo is more likely with a more dynamic operation. However, a decent case can be made that Shaw is the most effective recruiter Stanford has ever seen. In Shaw's last three full-size classes (i.e., putting aside the 2021 abomination), the median is the #19 class in the nation. That's the 2019, 2020, and 2022 classes - after the bloom of the rose was off and he didn't have a football argument to sell. Even without a football argument he recruited at a level at least on par with peak Harbaugh ("on paper" being an important qualifier given Harbaugh era evaluation/development/strength and conditioning), for instance. There have only been a handful of top 15 national classes in the last 50 years of Stanford football and next month we may sign a class at that level.

This is the way to think about it, borrowing from SLS90's sea level term: Shaw's current sea level as a recruiter is somebody who brings in very good classes by Stanford standards but has been prone to taking occasional years off from recruiting (which his predecessors almost all did too); unfortunately, Shaw's current sea level as a coach is somebody who routinely under-performs his roster's talent.

If Shaw and his coaching staff could coach top 25 talent to top 25 results we'd be in business because he recruits at a top 25 level. The problem is he can't, so to get good results we need something more like top 10 talent. That is a level of recruiting nobody at Stanford in history has ever come even close to sustaining. We arguably had a top 10 roster in 2010-2013 because of the aforementioned Harbaugh evaluation/development/strength and conditioning and Shaw made 2015 work beautifully because he layered the immaculate 2012 and 2014 recruiting classes on top of the Harbaugh inheritance. But sustaining that kind of roster is certainly not what Shaw's recruiting - as good as it's been on paper most years - has done.

We could get rid of Shaw and end up with the same or worse recruiting as we have now and still end up better off. I think the question we have to ask ourselves is what's more likely, Shaw recruiting top 10-15 recruiting classes every year or some other coach finding some way to get back to relevance with whatever level of recruiting he can muster (which again may be comparable or worse to Shaw's on paper)? To me it's become quite obvious the answer is the latter. The players we brought in with the 2019, 2020, and 2022 classes could do damage at a lot of programs, but that level of recruiting can't power Shawfense or Anderfense. Pretending otherwise is the definition of insanity.

+++++++++

That poster just nails the situation, imo, and it's what I've been trying to articulate over the years (but not nearly so well). The only add is this: Stanford has been losing an inordinate number of 5th (and even 4th) year players for Stanford, including on the lines, which is just devastating for a school like Stanford that can't restock grown men via the transfer portal. I don't know how much of that is due to Coach Shaw/not winning making sticking around unattractive or the changing world or what have you, but unless that gets reversed, Stanford will face greater pressure to recruit at historically unprecedented levels to compete for the North/Conference.

[teejers1]

I have yet to hear a real reason why anyone would think that's possible, let alone likely.

Not sure about likelihood but this year's recruiting class is a significant cut above recent ones. That doesn't answer all the issues but it seems like a basis for optimism. Also...your bete noir, the "dull, unimaginative offense" is far down the list of reasons for empty seats in the stadium.

---

You're right about Shaw's recent class being good.  But that's not the whole story.  A poster on TOS provides a lot of in-depth factual analyses post-games and during recruiting, and I raised the "Shaw at sea level" topic there (my handle there is SLS), and my takes on same.  The poster perfectly captures my sentiments on where things stand historically with Shaw and why my gut tells me that a clean break gives program more hope going forward.  Rather than trying to summarize, I am just cutting and pasting, confident the guy is fine with it:

+++++++++

I agree that recruiting is now much harder than it was earlier in Shaw's tenure because our football argument now stinks. For much of Stanford football history I think the average was about one top 100 recruit a year with zero being disappointing and two being pretty good. Any year with 3+ was extraordinary. Recruiting got good enough under Shaw that I adjusted my sense of things to two top 100 in a class being more like par for the course and only allowing myself to get excited with the 3+ kind of haul. We're now back to the pre-Shaw situation. If we get 3+ top 100 recruits in 2023 that will be a very big surprise. I think that's a telling and troubling indication of how the recruiting has fallen off.

I also agree that disrupting the status quo is more likely with a more dynamic operation. However, a decent case can be made that Shaw is the most effective recruiter Stanford has ever seen. In Shaw's last three full-size classes (i.e., putting aside the 2021 abomination), the median is the #19 class in the nation. That's the 2019, 2020, and 2022 classes - after the bloom of the rose was off and he didn't have a football argument to sell. Even without a football argument he recruited at a level at least on par with peak Harbaugh ("on paper" being an important qualifier given Harbaugh era evaluation/development/strength and conditioning), for instance. There have only been a handful of top 15 national classes in the last 50 years of Stanford football and next month we may sign a class at that level.

This is the way to think about it, borrowing from SLS90's sea level term: Shaw's current sea level as a recruiter is somebody who brings in very good classes by Stanford standards but has been prone to taking occasional years off from recruiting (which his predecessors almost all did too); unfortunately, Shaw's current sea level as a coach is somebody who routinely under-performs his roster's talent.

If Shaw and his coaching staff could coach top 25 talent to top 25 results we'd be in business because he recruits at a top 25 level. The problem is he can't, so to get good results we need something more like top 10 talent. That is a level of recruiting nobody at Stanford in history has ever come even close to sustaining. We arguably had a top 10 roster in 2010-2013 because of the aforementioned Harbaugh evaluation/development/strength and conditioning and Shaw made 2015 work beautifully because he layered the immaculate 2012 and 2014 recruiting classes on top of the Harbaugh inheritance. But sustaining that kind of roster is certainly not what Shaw's recruiting - as good as it's been on paper most years - has done.

We could get rid of Shaw and end up with the same or worse recruiting as we have now and still end up better off. I think the question we have to ask ourselves is what's more likely, Shaw recruiting top 10-15 recruiting classes every year or some other coach finding some way to get back to relevance with whatever level of recruiting he can muster (which again may be comparable or worse to Shaw's on paper)? To me it's become quite obvious the answer is the latter. The players we brought in with the 2019, 2020, and 2022 classes could do damage at a lot of programs, but that level of recruiting can't power Shawfense or Anderfense. Pretending otherwise is the definition of insanity.

+++++++++

That poster just nails the situation, imo, and it's what I've been trying to articulate over the years (but not nearly so well). The only add is this: Stanford has been losing an inordinate number of 5th (and even 4th) year players for Stanford, including on the lines, which is just devastating for a school like Stanford that can't restock grown men via the transfer portal. I don't know how much of that is due to Coach Shaw/not winning making sticking around unattractive or the changing world or what have you, but unless that gets reversed, Stanford will face greater pressure to recruit at historically unprecedented levels to compete for the North/Conference.

[gailtate]

It’s possible because it has been done before.  Tyrone Willingham’s record worsened each of his first four years at Stanford, going from 7-4-1 with the recruits he inherited from Bill Walsh in 1995 to 3-8 in 1998.  1999 started inauspiciously with a 69-17 beat down that, let’s face it, was worse than any stinker Shaw put up.  You know how the season ended up, and in fact, cite that team’s offense in contrast to Shaw’s.  I wonder if the Teejers who is convinced that Shaw’s coaching is irreparable and the team incapable of righting itself gave Tyrone Willingham much of a chance to go to the 2000 Rose Bowl.

As humans we put too much weight on easily describable trends, when a lot of what happens in the world is noise.  A few lucky breaks one year have things looking better than they are (you yourself cite last year as an example of a team that lucked into a better record than it deserved).  Conversely, a few bad breaks can leave you convinced that you are in a pit that you will never get out of.  Things don’t look good now, and it is possible that Shaw won’t be able to figure out how to fix it.  But you are much more certain of this than is warranted.

BC

Here is the problem.  Our Sagarin ratings the last three years have been 73, 75 and this year is 78 and going lower.

The much bigger problem is that we are getting killed on the line.  You can always find a great QB, RB or WR, but the line getting better is much harder.

Even if you are a Shaw defender, do you really see us being any better next year?

And I will note that our current three year Sagarin trend is the worst in the last 60 years.  It is only really being matched by Curtice in the early 60s.  And once again, do you really think next year will be any better?

Okay, BC, you're either (a) trolling or (b) obsessed with devil's advocacy and jousting with Teejers. And in this case, the "devil" in is the denials -- yours and that of the other Shawdvocates running out of excuses and whose numbers are dwindling right along Stanford's. Look, I want this coach to succeed, for cryin' out loud because I want Stanford to succeed in football. But this coach continues to flail and fail while the evidence--the present-day evidence, not that of a half-decade ago or more--that he cannot get it done keeps piling up. I don't care about high-tech X's and O's. I want to see a competitive team on the field at the top of its game. A team well coached: conditioned, disciplined, primed for top performance, drilled on the fundamentals and prepared. I want a De La Salle of the Pac12 in terms of coaching and physical-emotional preparedness. We had one for a while. It's been too long since then.

[gailtate]

It’s possible because it has been done before.  Tyrone Willingham’s record worsened each of his first four years at Stanford, going from 7-4-1 with the recruits he inherited from Bill Walsh in 1995 to 3-8 in 1998.  1999 started inauspiciously with a 69-17 beat down that, let’s face it, was worse than any stinker Shaw put up.  You know how the season ended up, and in fact, cite that team’s offense in contrast to Shaw’s.  I wonder if the Teejers who is convinced that Shaw’s coaching is irreparable and the team incapable of righting itself gave Tyrone Willingham much of a chance to go to the 2000 Rose Bowl.

As humans we put too much weight on easily describable trends, when a lot of what happens in the world is noise.  A few lucky breaks one year have things looking better than they are (you yourself cite last year as an example of a team that lucked into a better record than it deserved).  Conversely, a few bad breaks can leave you convinced that you are in a pit that you will never get out of.  Things don’t look good now, and it is possible that Shaw won’t be able to figure out how to fix it.  But you are much more certain of this than is warranted.

BC

Here is the problem.  Our Sagarin ratings the last three years have been 73, 75 and this year is 78 and going lower.

The much bigger problem is that we are getting killed on the line.  You can always find a great QB, RB or WR, but the line getting better is much harder.

Even if you are a Shaw defender, do you really see us being any better next year?

And I will note that our current three year Sagarin trend is the worst in the last 60 years.  It is only really being matched by Curtice in the early 60s.  And once again, do you really think next year will be any better?

Okay, BC, you're either (a) trolling or (b) obsessed with devil's advocacy and jousting with Teejers. And in this case, the "devil" in is the denials -- yours and that of the other Shawdvocates running out of excuses and whose numbers are dwindling right along Stanford's. Look, I want this coach to succeed, for cryin' out loud because I want Stanford to succeed in football. But this coach continues to flail and fail while the evidence--the present-day evidence, not that of a half-decade ago or more--that he cannot get it done keeps piling up. I don't care about high-tech X's and O's. I want to see a competitive team on the field at the top of its game. A team well coached: conditioned, disciplined, primed for top performance, drilled on the fundamentals and prepared. I want a De La Salle of the Pac12 in terms of coaching and physical-emotional preparedness. We had one for a while. It's been too long since then.

[BostonCard]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up. On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it. To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford. More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games. Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program. But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out. The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years. We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues. Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year. But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

[BostonCard]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up. On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it. To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford. More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games. Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program. But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out. The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years. We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues. Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year. But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

[winflop]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

[winflop]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

[Austroturf]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

[Austroturf]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

[qwerty49]

I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

How much do Tavita and Lance currently make?  How much would a top OC and DC cost?  Inquiring minds want to know.

$9mil is a LOT.  $7.5mil and adding $750K to the each coordinator position would never happen, but, y'know....

[qwerty49]

I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

How much do Tavita and Lance currently make?  How much would a top OC and DC cost?  Inquiring minds want to know.

$9mil is a LOT.  $7.5mil and adding $750K to the each coordinator position would never happen, but, y'know....

[gailtate]

Someone in another thread said that an informed, critical thread with better analytical content would be a worthwhile forum for discussing the football program. Sounds reasonable to me. 
Whatever such a thread might include, however, it presumably would NOT be mentions of luxury penthouses, plumbing, “hubris and complacency brigades”, motion pictures, or, for that matter, Ferraris, Yugos, or other hackneyed analogies.

Interesting that you would cite my suggestion for a critical thread in the same post as scorning some of my oft-used "hackneyed analogies.",  But, truth be told, I've been called worse things than a hack. Much, much worse. Have a nice day!

[gailtate]

Someone in another thread said that an informed, critical thread with better analytical content would be a worthwhile forum for discussing the football program. Sounds reasonable to me. 
Whatever such a thread might include, however, it presumably would NOT be mentions of luxury penthouses, plumbing, “hubris and complacency brigades”, motion pictures, or, for that matter, Ferraris, Yugos, or other hackneyed analogies.

Interesting that you would cite my suggestion for a critical thread in the same post as scorning some of my oft-used "hackneyed analogies.",  But, truth be told, I've been called worse things than a hack. Much, much worse. Have a nice day!

[teejers1]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

Why do you think he can?  (Shaw hasn't built, or re-built, anything).
Why do you think he deserves anything from Stanford (aren't the tens of millions of dollars he has already received sufficient)?    

Again, you shade/spin everything in Shaw's favor and refuse to recognize the unique benefits Shaw received as part of Harbaugh inheritance.

What good is it to recruit Top 25 talent most years, yet finish ranked in 60s/70s?

And why do you think Shaw is a strong recruiter "on paper" (and important qualifier you left out) relative to his peers?  
Is it because he appeals to AA recruits?  
Or is it also possible that Stanford University has been an independent draw like no other time in our memories?

Look, I admit that Shaw is good AA role model and that appeal can help in recruiting.  But in seeking the stud ballers - the ones Stanford needs to succeed in any meaningful way (i.e., above occasional 6-6 season) - I'd bet program excellence far exceeds any other consideration, including the race of the head coach.  And right now, the program is as far from excellent as imaginable.  

P.S.  The "evidence" on the need for change has been building for years, literally since the Fiesta Bowl - and every year since - and does not merely "extend[] to two of the last three years."

[teejers1]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

Why do you think he can?  (Shaw hasn't built, or re-built, anything).
Why do you think he deserves anything from Stanford (aren't the tens of millions of dollars he has already received sufficient)?    

Again, you shade/spin everything in Shaw's favor and refuse to recognize the unique benefits Shaw received as part of Harbaugh inheritance.

What good is it to recruit Top 25 talent most years, yet finish ranked in 60s/70s?

And why do you think Shaw is a strong recruiter "on paper" (and important qualifier you left out) relative to his peers?  
Is it because he appeals to AA recruits?  
Or is it also possible that Stanford University has been an independent draw like no other time in our memories?

Look, I admit that Shaw is good AA role model and that appeal can help in recruiting.  But in seeking the stud ballers - the ones Stanford needs to succeed in any meaningful way (i.e., above occasional 6-6 season) - I'd bet program excellence far exceeds any other consideration, including the race of the head coach.  And right now, the program is as far from excellent as imaginable.  

P.S.  The "evidence" on the need for change has been building for years, literally since the Fiesta Bowl - and every year since - and does not merely "extend[] to two of the last three years."

[gailtate]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

[gailtate]

The “evidence” extends to two out of the last three years. For you and Teejers, that is enough evidence that not only has Shaw fallen, but that he can’t get back up.  On the other hand, while I’m not sure that he will, I think he can, and I believe he deserves a chance to try.

Teejers’ quoted poster is *this close* to getting it.  To summarize:
Shaw is the best recruiter we have ever had.
Shaw has continued to recruit top-25 classes, despite not being able to sell recruits on the programs continued success.
Shaw had BCS level success in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 (plus an Alamo Bowl in 2017, plus second tier Bowl games in 2014, 2016, 2018).

You really have to torture the data to conclude that somehow Shaw is incapable of producing relative success at Stanford.  More likely, Shaw has hit a rough patch where a combination of factors (many of his own doing) plus some bad luck have led to a couple of very subpar seasons.

It is possible that Shaw can no longer convert top-25 level talent into bowl games.  Maybe he’s forgotten how to coach, or maybe the magic was in the assistants that have left the program.  But it is also possible that Shaw has fixed some of the self-inflicted problems that have plagued the program, which will pay dividends 2-3 years out.  The biggest: not filling the 85 scholarships AND under-recruiting offensive and defensive linemen, and skipping QB years.  We will have to wait to see what the class of 2023 brings, but the class of 2022, while not perfect, does address those issues.  Unfortunately, it will be more like 2024/25 before those efforts bear fruit, and I don’t have great expectations for next year.  But if you look at comments on the depth chart 2-3 years ago, you could predict we’d have problems this year, so my best guess is that 2024 will see us get back to a bowl game, and if a qb can emerge, 2025 and beyond has a reasonable chance of being more like the 2016-18 period (10, 9, and 9 wins).

BC

I think he **can** get it done, but only if he's willing to eat a helping of humble pie and recognize that significant changes are needed not only to his coaching staff but his operating model. If he continues to stay the course with his current staff, then we will continue to see 3- and 4-win seasons.

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

[Austroturf]

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

I am afraid you are right, but I want to take the angle that he CAN do it if he wakes up one morning with a change of heart and temperament.  I like Shaw, and I think he is smart, so I don't discount the possibility that he will see the gravity of the situation and finally take action.  Would I bet anything on this possibility?  Probably not.  Why was Shaw so successful in the early years?  He had an excellent staff and excellent players and provided the necessary leadership to the program.  The staff is no longer excellent; as a consequence, the players are also no longer excellent; and Shaw's leadership is no longer adequate.  Change this last part, and the virtuous circle could be kick-started again.  But I am not holding my breath for that to happen.

[Austroturf]

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

I am afraid you are right, but I want to take the angle that he CAN do it if he wakes up one morning with a change of heart and temperament.  I like Shaw, and I think he is smart, so I don't discount the possibility that he will see the gravity of the situation and finally take action.  Would I bet anything on this possibility?  Probably not.  Why was Shaw so successful in the early years?  He had an excellent staff and excellent players and provided the necessary leadership to the program.  The staff is no longer excellent; as a consequence, the players are also no longer excellent; and Shaw's leadership is no longer adequate.  Change this last part, and the virtuous circle could be kick-started again.  But I am not holding my breath for that to happen.

[pefloresjr]

I try to stay out of these discussions because they don't seem very productive.  I am upset about the way the team is performing.  I am at every home game and watch the road games on tv.  Last week, I was so upset, that I actually spent a lot of the game time cleaning the house and checking in on the game.  However, that does not lead me to the conclusion that Shaw should be fired.  

I think the evidence clearly shows that Shaw can coach a high performing, winning program.  He has led us to three Rose Bowls and many winning seasons.  He was too slow to adapt his recruiting approach (it was NEVER about lack of effort or laziness) and that is one of the fundamental problems with the team now.  Even if the overall ratings of our players were decent, we have regularly had many positions that were under-recruited for consecutive years.  It seems like he has corrected course there and, if we are to have any hope of improving, that must continue.  It will take a few years for that to show.  

I think this season has made clear that we need to make some coaching changes and I hope that Shaw agrees.  I don't think he and his coaches have lost the team, but there seems to be a lack of fire right now that is really worrisome.  But, to me, Shaw has very much earned the right to try to fix the problems with the program.  I'm very unhappy about and disappointed in the team's play this year.  However, Shaw's 6 million salary has very little to do with it for me.  I just want us to play better football.  If Shaw can't turn it around, it will be time for him to go but I have followed Stanford for 40 years now and most of our coaches were significantly worse than Shaw.  I'm willing to wait even if others aren't.  

Cheers,
Pete F.

[pefloresjr]

I try to stay out of these discussions because they don't seem very productive.  I am upset about the way the team is performing.  I am at every home game and watch the road games on tv.  Last week, I was so upset, that I actually spent a lot of the game time cleaning the house and checking in on the game.  However, that does not lead me to the conclusion that Shaw should be fired.  

I think the evidence clearly shows that Shaw can coach a high performing, winning program.  He has led us to three Rose Bowls and many winning seasons.  He was too slow to adapt his recruiting approach (it was NEVER about lack of effort or laziness) and that is one of the fundamental problems with the team now.  Even if the overall ratings of our players were decent, we have regularly had many positions that were under-recruited for consecutive years.  It seems like he has corrected course there and, if we are to have any hope of improving, that must continue.  It will take a few years for that to show.  

I think this season has made clear that we need to make some coaching changes and I hope that Shaw agrees.  I don't think he and his coaches have lost the team, but there seems to be a lack of fire right now that is really worrisome.  But, to me, Shaw has very much earned the right to try to fix the problems with the program.  I'm very unhappy about and disappointed in the team's play this year.  However, Shaw's 6 million salary has very little to do with it for me.  I just want us to play better football.  If Shaw can't turn it around, it will be time for him to go but I have followed Stanford for 40 years now and most of our coaches were significantly worse than Shaw.  I'm willing to wait even if others aren't.  

Cheers,
Pete F.

[gailtate]

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

I am afraid you are right, but I want to take the angle that he CAN do it if he wakes up one morning with a change of heart and temperament.  I like Shaw, and I think he is smart, so I don't discount the possibility that he will see the gravity of the situation and finally take action.  Would I bet anything on this possibility?  Probably not.  Why was Shaw so successful in the early years?  He had an excellent staff and excellent players and provided the necessary leadership to the program.  The staff is no longer excellent; as a consequence, the players are also no longer excellent; and Shaw's leadership is no longer adequate.  Change this last part, and the virtuous circle could be kick-started again.  But I am not holding my breath for that to happen.

Anything is possible, of course, but I bet on probabilities. Smart money says Shaw stays his course. Straight into the reef.

[gailtate]

Agree.  He CAN do it.  He just needs to realize the necessity and make the required changes, beginning first with his staff and second with his unwillingness to delegate the offensive coordinator duties.  And he should hire a staff that complements his strengths and weaknesses.  Shaw has many qualities desirable in a head coach; and where he is lacking them, he needs to hire that skill and delegate.  If he does nothing and continues to think everything is fine, that the team is just a few plays or a few players away from greatness, then we will continue to see seasons in the range of 3-9 to 6-6 (best case).  I cannot emphasize enough that he needs to hire top flight coordinators who would be capable of working for any power 5 program in the nation.  He currently does not have them, and it boggles the mind that he does not realize it.

The fact that he shows utterly no inclination to even consider acquiring coordinators of the caliber described is conclusive evidence that he CANNOT "get back up". It's just who he is.

I am afraid you are right, but I want to take the angle that he CAN do it if he wakes up one morning with a change of heart and temperament.  I like Shaw, and I think he is smart, so I don't discount the possibility that he will see the gravity of the situation and finally take action.  Would I bet anything on this possibility?  Probably not.  Why was Shaw so successful in the early years?  He had an excellent staff and excellent players and provided the necessary leadership to the program.  The staff is no longer excellent; as a consequence, the players are also no longer excellent; and Shaw's leadership is no longer adequate.  Change this last part, and the virtuous circle could be kick-started again.  But I am not holding my breath for that to happen.

Anything is possible, of course, but I bet on probabilities. Smart money says Shaw stays his course. Straight into the reef.