[dabigv13]

Sanctions are not the only thing crushing Russia's economy, it's also the broad pullout of many western companies and many young educated Russians leaving the country. Sanctions could end tomorrow and these things would not change. Russia is already low on many of their precision munitions, and it will be years not months before they can replenish their equipment and missile losses from only a month of fighting. I also would guess that sanctions preventing military tech transfer are the last to go (but also will have a lot of leakage).

The most dire predictions seem to assume that the first month of war didn't happen and that the Russian military is still some juggernaut, but in fact we have learned that they have difficulty mounting a large combined arms offensive, they do not control the air and don't appear to be close to doing so, and they have depleted a large portion of their guided munitions and suffered very high combat casualties that Russia can only reinforce with weaker troops.

Meanwhile Donbas is where Ukraine has their best regular forces and most prepared defensive positions. Not sure where you get the idea they can't move forces around- Russia does not control the sky and Ukraine is on home territory with interior lines, they should be able to move forces much better than Russia can, even if it's just with civilian autos.

Maybe Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses and are on brink of collapse. It's not impossible that Russia can make big advances if they concentrate their power. Probably they could have seized much of Donbas if that was their goal from the start. But that is not the situation now.

Russia apparently cannot secure their bases on their own soil. Big explosion at Russian ammo dump in Belgorod earlier. Ukrainian journalist claims Tochka missile, but sabotage or Russian carelessness could be reason as well.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1508874225393754114[/tweet]

In addition to Soviet antiair missiles and perhaps jets, hopefully we can facilitate more deliveries of Tochka missiles to Ukraine. Seems Bulgaria is only NATO country that still has any. Would doubt we hear about a delivery of this sort if it were to happen of course.

[dabigv13]

Sanctions are not the only thing crushing Russia's economy, it's also the broad pullout of many western companies and many young educated Russians leaving the country. Sanctions could end tomorrow and these things would not change. Russia is already low on many of their precision munitions, and it will be years not months before they can replenish their equipment and missile losses from only a month of fighting. I also would guess that sanctions preventing military tech transfer are the last to go (but also will have a lot of leakage).

The most dire predictions seem to assume that the first month of war didn't happen and that the Russian military is still some juggernaut, but in fact we have learned that they have difficulty mounting a large combined arms offensive, they do not control the air and don't appear to be close to doing so, and they have depleted a large portion of their guided munitions and suffered very high combat casualties that Russia can only reinforce with weaker troops.

Meanwhile Donbas is where Ukraine has their best regular forces and most prepared defensive positions. Not sure where you get the idea they can't move forces around- Russia does not control the sky and Ukraine is on home territory with interior lines, they should be able to move forces much better than Russia can, even if it's just with civilian autos.

Maybe Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses and are on brink of collapse. It's not impossible that Russia can make big advances if they concentrate their power. Probably they could have seized much of Donbas if that was their goal from the start. But that is not the situation now.

Russia apparently cannot secure their bases on their own soil. Big explosion at Russian ammo dump in Belgorod earlier. Ukrainian journalist claims Tochka missile, but sabotage or Russian carelessness could be reason as well.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1508874225393754114[/tweet]

In addition to Soviet antiair missiles and perhaps jets, hopefully we can facilitate more deliveries of Tochka missiles to Ukraine. Seems Bulgaria is only NATO country that still has any. Would doubt we hear about a delivery of this sort if it were to happen of course.

[Goose]

Sanctions are not the only thing crushing Russia's economy, it's also the broad pullout of many western companies and many young educated Russians leaving the country. Sanctions could end tomorrow and these things would not change. Russia is already low on many of their precision munitions, and it will be years not months before they can replenish their equipment and missile losses from only a month of fighting. I also would guess that sanctions preventing military tech transfer are the last to go (but also will have a lot of leakage).

Very true. With the current chip shortage things would be difficult even without sanctions. With them it is a nightmare. I am not so sure how low Russia is on precision guided weapons. They are a big country and I would expect they have quite a few facing China right now. They can undoubtedly scrape some together, but to what end?

The most dire predictions seem to assume that the first month of war didn't happen and that the Russian military is still some juggernaut, but in fact we have learned that they have difficulty mounting a large combined arms offensive, they do not control the air and don't appear to be close to doing so, and they have depleted a large portion of their guided munitions and suffered very high combat casualties that Russia can only reinforce with weaker troops.
Meanwhile Donbas is where Ukraine has their best regular forces and most prepared defensive positions. Not sure where you get the idea they can't move forces around- Russia does not control the sky and Ukraine is on home territory with interior lines, they should be able to move forces much better than Russia can, even if it's just with civilian autos.

The Russian military started out as an organized force that was equipped and trained to move large quantities of troops. They failed at it. Now imagine doing the same thing with civilians who have no training and are not organized for such movements. They also have no organic transport and have to organize that too. I think you greatly underestimate the difficulty in doing so. Couple that with the fact a lot of the troops signed on to defend their homes. Plenty of them probably are not prepared to adopt an expeditionary posture, and may of them are probably not physically fit enough to do so.
Russia doesn't control the sky over Ukraine, but they do over Russia. Ukraine uses it's air force to lure Russians into missile boxes. They aren't able to do that in Donbas because it isn't deep enough. If Ukraine could operate aircraft in that area, they certainly would have tried to help Mariupol. Russia has been bombing the hell out of it. They have air supremacy in that area because it is under a missile umbrella based in Russia. The good Ukrainian troops in the Donbas area are in fact in danger of being cut off. The ones in Mariupol are surrounded. Certainly they have fought well, but at great cost the Russians are prevailing in that area.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-tro...32320.html
Again, if Ukraine can cut off Crimea, that would be a big deal, but it doesn't appear they have the combat power to do it.

Maybe Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses and are on brink of collapse. It's not impossible that Russia can make big advances if they concentrate their power. Probably they could have seized much of Donbas if that was their goal from the start. But that is not the situation now.
Russia apparently cannot secure their bases on their own soil. Big explosion at Russian ammo dump in Belgorod earlier. Ukrainian journalist claims Tochka missile, but sabotage or Russian carelessness could be reason as well.
In addition to Soviet antiair missiles and perhaps jets, hopefully we can facilitate more deliveries of Tochka missiles to Ukraine. Seems Bulgaria is only NATO country that still has any. Would doubt we hear about a delivery of this sort if it were to happen of course.

I have been in favor all along of supplying offensive missiles to Ukraine. Right now, they do not have any effective ways to project power at a long or medium distance. Bulgaria has a few Tochka missiles, but not enough to do lots of damage even if they are all still serviceable. I am not sure NATO has decided what their policy is in this area. Would Putin go off the rails if NATO supplied an adequate number of MLRS systems to Ukraine? If yes, then what else can NATO provide. Otherwise, Ukraine is in a world of hurt offensively.
The fact that NATO has not delivered a pile of S300 systems to Ukraine (as far as we know) is troubling to me. If we had, I would expect to me seeing results of it at least. We should be able to do that. It is not like we can keep it secret, because the radars will give their existence away. The Russians can count.

[Goose]

Sanctions are not the only thing crushing Russia's economy, it's also the broad pullout of many western companies and many young educated Russians leaving the country. Sanctions could end tomorrow and these things would not change. Russia is already low on many of their precision munitions, and it will be years not months before they can replenish their equipment and missile losses from only a month of fighting. I also would guess that sanctions preventing military tech transfer are the last to go (but also will have a lot of leakage).

Very true. With the current chip shortage things would be difficult even without sanctions. With them it is a nightmare. I am not so sure how low Russia is on precision guided weapons. They are a big country and I would expect they have quite a few facing China right now. They can undoubtedly scrape some together, but to what end?

The most dire predictions seem to assume that the first month of war didn't happen and that the Russian military is still some juggernaut, but in fact we have learned that they have difficulty mounting a large combined arms offensive, they do not control the air and don't appear to be close to doing so, and they have depleted a large portion of their guided munitions and suffered very high combat casualties that Russia can only reinforce with weaker troops.
Meanwhile Donbas is where Ukraine has their best regular forces and most prepared defensive positions. Not sure where you get the idea they can't move forces around- Russia does not control the sky and Ukraine is on home territory with interior lines, they should be able to move forces much better than Russia can, even if it's just with civilian autos.

The Russian military started out as an organized force that was equipped and trained to move large quantities of troops. They failed at it. Now imagine doing the same thing with civilians who have no training and are not organized for such movements. They also have no organic transport and have to organize that too. I think you greatly underestimate the difficulty in doing so. Couple that with the fact a lot of the troops signed on to defend their homes. Plenty of them probably are not prepared to adopt an expeditionary posture, and may of them are probably not physically fit enough to do so.
Russia doesn't control the sky over Ukraine, but they do over Russia. Ukraine uses it's air force to lure Russians into missile boxes. They aren't able to do that in Donbas because it isn't deep enough. If Ukraine could operate aircraft in that area, they certainly would have tried to help Mariupol. Russia has been bombing the hell out of it. They have air supremacy in that area because it is under a missile umbrella based in Russia. The good Ukrainian troops in the Donbas area are in fact in danger of being cut off. The ones in Mariupol are surrounded. Certainly they have fought well, but at great cost the Russians are prevailing in that area.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-tro...32320.html
Again, if Ukraine can cut off Crimea, that would be a big deal, but it doesn't appear they have the combat power to do it.

Maybe Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses and are on brink of collapse. It's not impossible that Russia can make big advances if they concentrate their power. Probably they could have seized much of Donbas if that was their goal from the start. But that is not the situation now.
Russia apparently cannot secure their bases on their own soil. Big explosion at Russian ammo dump in Belgorod earlier. Ukrainian journalist claims Tochka missile, but sabotage or Russian carelessness could be reason as well.
In addition to Soviet antiair missiles and perhaps jets, hopefully we can facilitate more deliveries of Tochka missiles to Ukraine. Seems Bulgaria is only NATO country that still has any. Would doubt we hear about a delivery of this sort if it were to happen of course.

I have been in favor all along of supplying offensive missiles to Ukraine. Right now, they do not have any effective ways to project power at a long or medium distance. Bulgaria has a few Tochka missiles, but not enough to do lots of damage even if they are all still serviceable. I am not sure NATO has decided what their policy is in this area. Would Putin go off the rails if NATO supplied an adequate number of MLRS systems to Ukraine? If yes, then what else can NATO provide. Otherwise, Ukraine is in a world of hurt offensively.
The fact that NATO has not delivered a pile of S300 systems to Ukraine (as far as we know) is troubling to me. If we had, I would expect to me seeing results of it at least. We should be able to do that. It is not like we can keep it secret, because the radars will give their existence away. The Russians can count.

[BigJohn043]

In a month, Russia has only taken one Ukrainian City, Kherson.  And that city is currently fighting back and is considered by some to be contested.

Mariupol is surrounded and is the one Ukanian city that can be attacked from both sides without a flank.  This is because Russia is attacking from the Dombas in the east and Crimea in the west.  It is the only city in that situation.  And to take it Russia had to surround and essentially destroy the city.  So I am not really sure what they are taking.

Russia has gotten to a bunch of other cities and has been able to shell from the outskirts but haven't been able to surround any: Kiev, KharKiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv.

In other words, all the Russians have taken are Fields and a bunch of small towns.

The Russians main thrust towards Kiev is wildly over extended with vulnerable flanks.  Those forces are getting pushed back.  My sense is that teh Russian force rotation is another name for a retreat from untenable positions.

Latest news suggests that the Russians are really out of reinforcements which is why they are inserting these foreign fighters.

Russia can probably hold the South, but cannot capture Odessa.  But to what end?  Every day of the fight the Ukrainian's get stronger, better trained and better equipped.   The opposite is true for the Russians.....

[BigJohn043]

In a month, Russia has only taken one Ukrainian City, Kherson.  And that city is currently fighting back and is considered by some to be contested.

Mariupol is surrounded and is the one Ukanian city that can be attacked from both sides without a flank.  This is because Russia is attacking from the Dombas in the east and Crimea in the west.  It is the only city in that situation.  And to take it Russia had to surround and essentially destroy the city.  So I am not really sure what they are taking.

Russia has gotten to a bunch of other cities and has been able to shell from the outskirts but haven't been able to surround any: Kiev, KharKiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv.

In other words, all the Russians have taken are Fields and a bunch of small towns.

The Russians main thrust towards Kiev is wildly over extended with vulnerable flanks.  Those forces are getting pushed back.  My sense is that teh Russian force rotation is another name for a retreat from untenable positions.

Latest news suggests that the Russians are really out of reinforcements which is why they are inserting these foreign fighters.

Russia can probably hold the South, but cannot capture Odessa.  But to what end?  Every day of the fight the Ukrainian's get stronger, better trained and better equipped.   The opposite is true for the Russians.....

[Goose]

In a month, Russia has only taken one Ukrainian City, Kherson.  And that city is currently fighting back and is considered by some to be contested.

Mariupol is surrounded and is the one Ukanian city that can be attacked from both sides without a flank.  This is because Russia is attacking from the Dombas in the east and Crimea in the west.  It is the only city in that situation.  And to take it Russia had to surround and essentially destroy the city.  So I am not really sure what they are taking.

They are taking a major port that also provides them with an all land link between Russia and Crimea, and for the future of a Russian Crimea, that is priceless.

Russia has gotten to a bunch of other cities and has been able to shell from the outskirts but haven't been able to surround any: Kiev, KharKiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv.

In other words, all the Russians have taken are Fields and a bunch of small towns.

The Russians main thrust towards Kiev is wildly over extended with vulnerable flanks.  Those forces are getting pushed back.  My sense is that teh Russian force rotation is another name for a retreat from untenable positions.

I agree. Kiev turned out to be a bridge too far.

Latest news suggests that the Russians are really out of reinforcements which is why they are inserting these foreign fighters.

Russia can probably hold the South, but cannot capture Odessa.  But to what end?  Every day of the fight the Ukrainian's get stronger, better trained and better equipped.   The opposite is true for the Russians.....

Probably true, but each day Ukraine also endures a day with no economy. While they are getting somewhat better equipped, so far it is with weapons better suited to defense than to offense. How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

[Goose]

In a month, Russia has only taken one Ukrainian City, Kherson.  And that city is currently fighting back and is considered by some to be contested.

Mariupol is surrounded and is the one Ukanian city that can be attacked from both sides without a flank.  This is because Russia is attacking from the Dombas in the east and Crimea in the west.  It is the only city in that situation.  And to take it Russia had to surround and essentially destroy the city.  So I am not really sure what they are taking.

They are taking a major port that also provides them with an all land link between Russia and Crimea, and for the future of a Russian Crimea, that is priceless.

Russia has gotten to a bunch of other cities and has been able to shell from the outskirts but haven't been able to surround any: Kiev, KharKiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv.

In other words, all the Russians have taken are Fields and a bunch of small towns.

The Russians main thrust towards Kiev is wildly over extended with vulnerable flanks.  Those forces are getting pushed back.  My sense is that teh Russian force rotation is another name for a retreat from untenable positions.

I agree. Kiev turned out to be a bridge too far.

Latest news suggests that the Russians are really out of reinforcements which is why they are inserting these foreign fighters.

Russia can probably hold the South, but cannot capture Odessa.  But to what end?  Every day of the fight the Ukrainian's get stronger, better trained and better equipped.   The opposite is true for the Russians.....

Probably true, but each day Ukraine also endures a day with no economy. While they are getting somewhat better equipped, so far it is with weapons better suited to defense than to offense. How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

[dabigv13]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

[dabigv13]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

[82lsju]

Does anyone know the name of or link to the Ukrainian relief organization that TVD will be donating to for made 3-pt shots? I’d be interested in helping, too.

VanDerveer isn’t collecting donations, she clarified. She’ll make her own at the end of the tournament. But on Saturday, per a spokesman, she chose three charities and their relief funds — Save The Children, Americares and Global Giving — that would benefit. She encouraged everyone participating in the challenge to give to one or more of the three, or others of their choice.

https://sports.yahoo.com/tara-vanderveer...%20benefit.

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www.taras3ptchallenge.com/

[82lsju]

Does anyone know the name of or link to the Ukrainian relief organization that TVD will be donating to for made 3-pt shots? I’d be interested in helping, too.

VanDerveer isn’t collecting donations, she clarified. She’ll make her own at the end of the tournament. But on Saturday, per a spokesman, she chose three charities and their relief funds — Save The Children, Americares and Global Giving — that would benefit. She encouraged everyone participating in the challenge to give to one or more of the three, or others of their choice.

https://sports.yahoo.com/tara-vanderveer...%20benefit.

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www.taras3ptchallenge.com/

[teejers1]

Does anyone know the name of or link to the Ukrainian relief organization that TVD will be donating to for made 3-pt shots? I’d be interested in helping, too.

VanDerveer isn’t collecting donations, she clarified. She’ll make her own at the end of the tournament. But on Saturday, per a spokesman, she chose three charities and their relief funds — Save The Children, Americares and Global Giving — that would benefit. She encouraged everyone participating in the challenge to give to one or more of the three, or others of their choice.

https://sports.yahoo.com/tara-vanderveer...%20benefit.

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www.taras3ptchallenge.com/

I really, really, really hope the Stanford team makes Tara pay this weekend (and I suspect coach does, too).

[teejers1]

Does anyone know the name of or link to the Ukrainian relief organization that TVD will be donating to for made 3-pt shots? I’d be interested in helping, too.

VanDerveer isn’t collecting donations, she clarified. She’ll make her own at the end of the tournament. But on Saturday, per a spokesman, she chose three charities and their relief funds — Save The Children, Americares and Global Giving — that would benefit. She encouraged everyone participating in the challenge to give to one or more of the three, or others of their choice.

https://sports.yahoo.com/tara-vanderveer...%20benefit.

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www.taras3ptchallenge.com/

I really, really, really hope the Stanford team makes Tara pay this weekend (and I suspect coach does, too).

[dabigv13]

Ukrainian drone showing the lighter side of modern combat.....
[Tweet]]https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/1508865113582981121?s=20&t=J0gbDAqHp2KiNYG_FGATlQ[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Ukrainian drone showing the lighter side of modern combat.....
[Tweet]]https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/1508865113582981121?s=20&t=J0gbDAqHp2KiNYG_FGATlQ[/tweet]

[Goose]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

Ukraine doesn't have "eventually" as an option, if eventually is more than a few months. They have 40 million (36 or so now) mouths to feed. Their economy is in tatters. Their power plants are destroyed or in Russian hands. Their rail lines are a mess. Some routes are impossible because Russians are on the junctions. The can't import/export by sea because Russia controls the Black Sea coastline and no commercial shipper is going to enter a war zone. Logistics won't force Russia out of Donbas or anywhere near the Russian border. Attrition could, but remember that up to now Russia has been attacking. In so far as Ukraine is now attacking, it can expect much heavier casualties. Attrition works both ways.
Throwing the Russians back in some places is great, but it is not throwing the Russians out. My hope is that Russian morale snaps in some big way. That could do the trick. Mass surrenders. Short of that, a battle of attrition favors Russia staying in Ukraine IMHO. Either economic forces or morale loss is the only way they leave.

[Goose]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

Ukraine doesn't have "eventually" as an option, if eventually is more than a few months. They have 40 million (36 or so now) mouths to feed. Their economy is in tatters. Their power plants are destroyed or in Russian hands. Their rail lines are a mess. Some routes are impossible because Russians are on the junctions. The can't import/export by sea because Russia controls the Black Sea coastline and no commercial shipper is going to enter a war zone. Logistics won't force Russia out of Donbas or anywhere near the Russian border. Attrition could, but remember that up to now Russia has been attacking. In so far as Ukraine is now attacking, it can expect much heavier casualties. Attrition works both ways.
Throwing the Russians back in some places is great, but it is not throwing the Russians out. My hope is that Russian morale snaps in some big way. That could do the trick. Mass surrenders. Short of that, a battle of attrition favors Russia staying in Ukraine IMHO. Either economic forces or morale loss is the only way they leave.

[M T]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

[M T]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

[Goose]

This article makes several points more completely than I have been able to do.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/27/w...st-russia/

The Ukrainians themselves are very concerned about their lack of offensive capability.

Also
https://news.err.ee/1608547663/expert-uk...ve-weapons

[Goose]

This article makes several points more completely than I have been able to do.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/27/w...st-russia/

The Ukrainians themselves are very concerned about their lack of offensive capability.

Also
https://news.err.ee/1608547663/expert-uk...ve-weapons

[82lsju]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

true, but the link was from the Stanford Women's Basketball Facebook feed so hopefully it is legit

Stanford Women's Basketball

Heading into the #WFinalFour with $7,490 pledged for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine!

More information and a chance to document your pledge can be found at www.taras3ptchallenge.com!

https://www.facebook.com/StanfordWBB/pho...618994885/

[82lsju]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

true, but the link was from the Stanford Women's Basketball Facebook feed so hopefully it is legit

Stanford Women's Basketball

Heading into the #WFinalFour with $7,490 pledged for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine!

More information and a chance to document your pledge can be found at www.taras3ptchallenge.com!

https://www.facebook.com/StanfordWBB/pho...618994885/

[JJJ]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

true, but the link was from the Stanford Women's Basketball Facebook feed so hopefully it is legit

Stanford Women's Basketball

Heading into the #WFinalFour with $7,490 pledged for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine!

More information and a chance to document your pledge can be found at www.taras3ptchallenge.com!

https://www.facebook.com/StanfordWBB/pho...618994885/

If this isn’t legit, we have far more problems than we thought. 8)

[JJJ]

some more info on Tara's Challenge

https://www[.]taras3ptchallenge[.]com/

A reminder:  Just because "tara" is part of the domain name doesn't mean that this website has any association with Tara.
(The domain is registered with wix.com, which doesn't show any evidence of who the real owners are.)

true, but the link was from the Stanford Women's Basketball Facebook feed so hopefully it is legit

Stanford Women's Basketball

Heading into the #WFinalFour with $7,490 pledged for humanitarian efforts in Ukraine!

More information and a chance to document your pledge can be found at www.taras3ptchallenge.com!

https://www.facebook.com/StanfordWBB/pho...618994885/

If this isn’t legit, we have far more problems than we thought. 8)

[BigJohn043]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

Ukraine doesn't have "eventually" as an option, if eventually is more than a few months. They have 40 million (36 or so now) mouths to feed. Their economy is in tatters. Their power plants are destroyed or in Russian hands. Their rail lines are a mess. Some routes are impossible because Russians are on the junctions. The can't import/export by sea because Russia controls the Black Sea coastline and no commercial shipper is going to enter a war zone. Logistics won't force Russia out of Donbas or anywhere near the Russian border. Attrition could, but remember that up to now Russia has been attacking. In so far as Ukraine is now attacking, it can expect much heavier casualties. Attrition works both ways.
Throwing the Russians back in some places is great, but it is not throwing the Russians out. My hope is that Russian morale snaps in some big way. That could do the trick. Mass surrenders. Short of that, a battle of attrition favors Russia staying in Ukraine IMHO. Either economic forces or morale loss is the only way they leave.

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.

Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.  Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.  It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be brobdingnagian.

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.

I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.

In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.

Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

[BigJohn043]

How does Ukraine eject the Russians from their land? I don't think they can do it with what they have.

They're actively doing so, reclaiming territory and towns outside of Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson. They probably do not have the maneuver units to perform a large envelopment of Russia forces, but considering Russia is on hostile territory this is not necessary. Attrition and logistics will force them out eventually.

Ukraine doesn't have "eventually" as an option, if eventually is more than a few months. They have 40 million (36 or so now) mouths to feed. Their economy is in tatters. Their power plants are destroyed or in Russian hands. Their rail lines are a mess. Some routes are impossible because Russians are on the junctions. The can't import/export by sea because Russia controls the Black Sea coastline and no commercial shipper is going to enter a war zone. Logistics won't force Russia out of Donbas or anywhere near the Russian border. Attrition could, but remember that up to now Russia has been attacking. In so far as Ukraine is now attacking, it can expect much heavier casualties. Attrition works both ways.
Throwing the Russians back in some places is great, but it is not throwing the Russians out. My hope is that Russian morale snaps in some big way. That could do the trick. Mass surrenders. Short of that, a battle of attrition favors Russia staying in Ukraine IMHO. Either economic forces or morale loss is the only way they leave.

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.

Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.  Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.  It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be brobdingnagian.

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.

I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.

In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.

Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

[gailtate]

There are apparently cracks in the foundation, at least according to NYT reports today. U.S. intelligence says there is tension growing between Putin and his  defense ministry. He's pissed that he wasn't informed about Ukraine's defensive readiness. Then, again, there's price to pay when you're surrounded by weak-kneed sycophants who only tell you you want to hear. Reminds me of a recent POTUS.

[gailtate]

There are apparently cracks in the foundation, at least according to NYT reports today. U.S. intelligence says there is tension growing between Putin and his  defense ministry. He's pissed that he wasn't informed about Ukraine's defensive readiness. Then, again, there's price to pay when you're surrounded by weak-kneed sycophants who only tell you you want to hear. Reminds me of a recent POTUS.

[Softball Fan]

I have no idea how this will turn out.  My only strong opinion is the U.S. could be doing more to help militarily with an urgency to save lives by forcing Putin to negotiations.  I don’t think financial sanctions will have too much impact on Putin’s objectives even while they destroy the Russian economy.

Back during the Clinton administration Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic attacked Bosnia.  There was a  different approach by Clinton toward ending the war.  There were some cease-fires that partially held.  To get to the cease-fires took some massive bombing of Milosevic’s forces.

My company was supplying a complex component to Boeing for converting dumb bombs into smart bombs.  Steering fins and a guidance system were added to the bombs to control their flight.  They were called JDAM (the military is really into acronyms) kits.  $40,000 to retrofit a dumb bomb versus $700,000 for a Tomahawk Cruise missile.  There was a full-court press by the Pentagon to use these bombs in the war arena. 

At one point our component became a gating item.  We got a visit from a four star commander making a trip out west to suppliers with issues.  He turned out to be nice guy.  He gave us a pep talk to do everything we could to get the product out the door.  There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.  At the moment I don’t see Putin giving in until he has exhausted his military options.  How many dead Ukrainians is that going to result in?


FWIW from a historical perspective Milosevic was voted out of power, thrown in jail, and eventually convicted of war crimes.  He died in prison.   I don’t see this scenario playing out with Putin unless Russian military commanders get fed up with him.  IMO that’s very unlikely.

[Softball Fan]

I have no idea how this will turn out.  My only strong opinion is the U.S. could be doing more to help militarily with an urgency to save lives by forcing Putin to negotiations.  I don’t think financial sanctions will have too much impact on Putin’s objectives even while they destroy the Russian economy.

Back during the Clinton administration Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic attacked Bosnia.  There was a  different approach by Clinton toward ending the war.  There were some cease-fires that partially held.  To get to the cease-fires took some massive bombing of Milosevic’s forces.

My company was supplying a complex component to Boeing for converting dumb bombs into smart bombs.  Steering fins and a guidance system were added to the bombs to control their flight.  They were called JDAM (the military is really into acronyms) kits.  $40,000 to retrofit a dumb bomb versus $700,000 for a Tomahawk Cruise missile.  There was a full-court press by the Pentagon to use these bombs in the war arena. 

At one point our component became a gating item.  We got a visit from a four star commander making a trip out west to suppliers with issues.  He turned out to be nice guy.  He gave us a pep talk to do everything we could to get the product out the door.  There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.  At the moment I don’t see Putin giving in until he has exhausted his military options.  How many dead Ukrainians is that going to result in?


FWIW from a historical perspective Milosevic was voted out of power, thrown in jail, and eventually convicted of war crimes.  He died in prison.   I don’t see this scenario playing out with Putin unless Russian military commanders get fed up with him.  IMO that’s very unlikely.

[Goose]

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.


Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.

No, it unfortunately is not and mostly will not be planted. That is a big world wide problem causing the UN to forecast serious world-wide shortages. The farmers have picked up weapons and are fighting. They largely can't do both. The wheat they would grow can't be shipped because Russia controls the South coast. This is one of Ukraine's big problems.

 
Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.

Which runs on Russian gas. The EU itself will be in a world of hurt if Putin shuts of their gas supply. Everybody is assuming he won't do that because he needs the money. However, with the sanctions it may turn out the money does him no good. I am not sure what will happen here, but being hooked to the EU grid may not be a panacea. There is no excess capacity to begin with.
The Ukraine (and Moldova) have synchronized their grid's frequency and phase to the EU grid. However, as I understand it no power has yet been transferred. The intended cut-over date for this operation was in 2023. It is unclear how much power can actually be shared from the EU due to transmission line limitations.

It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be of immense proportions.

True, and that will help. But supporting 36 million people who are still fighting a war and are being bombed and hit by missiles daily isn't easy. Ukraine won't stave, but it also won't produce much. Not going to be "easy". How long can they endure it?

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.
I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.
In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

In the East, Russia has short supply lines, Ukraine has longer ones. In the East, Russia fights under the IAD based in Russia. Ukraine is denied the sky in these areas. Indeed, Russia foolishly attempted advances on multiple fronts creating salients that they could neither supply nor defend. Majorly stupid, but they have (belatedly) figured that out. We will see what happens in the East, but I expect that Russia will (unfortunately) do much better there. They will be able to concentrate their forces and will be able to use only the "better" units as assault forces. How well these units hold up will be critical to the advance.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.
Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

I agree with every bit of this except the idea Russia has no chance of taking additional territory. I think they have every chance of doing so. Fight under an air umbrella and take 30 to 50 km wide "slices". Short supply lines. Reinforce success (a normal Russian procedure), outflank failure. Ukraine doesn't have the transport or the troops to hold everywhere. They will slowly lose the battle because they can't force Russia to defend and respond to counter-attacks that threaten the flanks or rear. Ukraine is also running out of Soviet era artillery ammunition and it is unclear if/when they can get more. They have stated this is a big problem. Even when they get it, they have to move it from the Polish border to Donbas. Now Ukraine is the one with a very long supply chain.
I expect it is impossible for Russia to take the entire Ukraine that way, but it is certainly possible to secure the Donbas and the majority of Eastern Ukraine that way. If the Russian troops will fight, this can happen. Hopefully, they will have a morale collapse and not do so.

---

There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.

[Goose]

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.


Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.

No, it unfortunately is not and mostly will not be planted. That is a big world wide problem causing the UN to forecast serious world-wide shortages. The farmers have picked up weapons and are fighting. They largely can't do both. The wheat they would grow can't be shipped because Russia controls the South coast. This is one of Ukraine's big problems.

 
Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.

Which runs on Russian gas. The EU itself will be in a world of hurt if Putin shuts of their gas supply. Everybody is assuming he won't do that because he needs the money. However, with the sanctions it may turn out the money does him no good. I am not sure what will happen here, but being hooked to the EU grid may not be a panacea. There is no excess capacity to begin with.
The Ukraine (and Moldova) have synchronized their grid's frequency and phase to the EU grid. However, as I understand it no power has yet been transferred. The intended cut-over date for this operation was in 2023. It is unclear how much power can actually be shared from the EU due to transmission line limitations.

It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be of immense proportions.

True, and that will help. But supporting 36 million people who are still fighting a war and are being bombed and hit by missiles daily isn't easy. Ukraine won't stave, but it also won't produce much. Not going to be "easy". How long can they endure it?

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.
I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.
In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

In the East, Russia has short supply lines, Ukraine has longer ones. In the East, Russia fights under the IAD based in Russia. Ukraine is denied the sky in these areas. Indeed, Russia foolishly attempted advances on multiple fronts creating salients that they could neither supply nor defend. Majorly stupid, but they have (belatedly) figured that out. We will see what happens in the East, but I expect that Russia will (unfortunately) do much better there. They will be able to concentrate their forces and will be able to use only the "better" units as assault forces. How well these units hold up will be critical to the advance.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.
Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

I agree with every bit of this except the idea Russia has no chance of taking additional territory. I think they have every chance of doing so. Fight under an air umbrella and take 30 to 50 km wide "slices". Short supply lines. Reinforce success (a normal Russian procedure), outflank failure. Ukraine doesn't have the transport or the troops to hold everywhere. They will slowly lose the battle because they can't force Russia to defend and respond to counter-attacks that threaten the flanks or rear. Ukraine is also running out of Soviet era artillery ammunition and it is unclear if/when they can get more. They have stated this is a big problem. Even when they get it, they have to move it from the Polish border to Donbas. Now Ukraine is the one with a very long supply chain.
I expect it is impossible for Russia to take the entire Ukraine that way, but it is certainly possible to secure the Donbas and the majority of Eastern Ukraine that way. If the Russian troops will fight, this can happen. Hopefully, they will have a morale collapse and not do so.

---

There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.

[TreesAndBirds]

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.

Agreed. This is a very different situation than dealing with a non nuclear Milosevic. But to be clear, Biden has to not only be worrying about the “twists and turns of this war”, but also planning for someone (China, Iran, NKorea) trying to take advantage of the  current situation to start/exacerbate another problem in a different area of the world. Need to be talking to our friends/allies throughout the world to be prepared for a lot.

[TreesAndBirds]

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.

Agreed. This is a very different situation than dealing with a non nuclear Milosevic. But to be clear, Biden has to not only be worrying about the “twists and turns of this war”, but also planning for someone (China, Iran, NKorea) trying to take advantage of the  current situation to start/exacerbate another problem in a different area of the world. Need to be talking to our friends/allies throughout the world to be prepared for a lot.

[martyup]

Remind me of why the USSR invaded Afghanistan and what was the end result of that war? [/sark]

[martyup]

Remind me of why the USSR invaded Afghanistan and what was the end result of that war? [/sark]

[cardcrimson]

Then, again, there's price to pay when you're surrounded by weak-kneed sycophants who only tell you you want to hear. Reminds me of a recent head coach.

Above is where I thought you were headed. . . .

[cardcrimson]

Then, again, there's price to pay when you're surrounded by weak-kneed sycophants who only tell you you want to hear. Reminds me of a recent head coach.

Above is where I thought you were headed. . . .