[Goose]

Turning back to the "how does it end" question, I share the lack of clarity around this that others have expressed.  BUt as I read this article this morning, the question "when does it end" unfortuately does seem to have an answer:  not soon.   I think this article is behind a paywall for many.   My core take-away is that the upcoming battles will be fought closer to Russia, on terrain that may be better suited to Russian forces, with Russia having the advantage of attrition, in areas with a higher % of the population sympathetic to Russia, and farther from Ukraine's core supply lines.  Ukraine could indeed become land-locked.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-..._lead_pos9

Sadly, a long war is probably a "best case" for Ukraine. They aren't going to be saved by the West giving them new weapons for reasons we have gone over before on this board. The WSJ article indicates attrition favors Russia, which in the absence of any change in the political situation is accurate. Again, Ukraine's only hope is that they can stand the attrition AND the West can destroy Putin's ability to continue fighting by economic means. That can only happen if oil and gas imports to Western nations cease basically immediately. Anything else and Ukraine is a dead state walking IMHO. It is only a matter of how many deaths. The downstream consequences of Ukraine's defeat are very painful to contemplate. None of them are good  IMHO.

[Goose]

Turning back to the "how does it end" question, I share the lack of clarity around this that others have expressed.  BUt as I read this article this morning, the question "when does it end" unfortuately does seem to have an answer:  not soon.   I think this article is behind a paywall for many.   My core take-away is that the upcoming battles will be fought closer to Russia, on terrain that may be better suited to Russian forces, with Russia having the advantage of attrition, in areas with a higher % of the population sympathetic to Russia, and farther from Ukraine's core supply lines.  Ukraine could indeed become land-locked.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-..._lead_pos9

Sadly, a long war is probably a "best case" for Ukraine. They aren't going to be saved by the West giving them new weapons for reasons we have gone over before on this board. The WSJ article indicates attrition favors Russia, which in the absence of any change in the political situation is accurate. Again, Ukraine's only hope is that they can stand the attrition AND the West can destroy Putin's ability to continue fighting by economic means. That can only happen if oil and gas imports to Western nations cease basically immediately. Anything else and Ukraine is a dead state walking IMHO. It is only a matter of how many deaths. The downstream consequences of Ukraine's defeat are very painful to contemplate. None of them are good  IMHO.

[dabigv13]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

[dabigv13]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

[M T]

Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

[M T]

Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

[Goose]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Ukraine unfortunately does not have more manpower. Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them. These troops are also troops Ukraine cannot afford to lose, so getting them cut off and surrounded in the Donbas must be avoided at all costs. Ukraine has other troops in other parts of the country that could in theory be moved to the Donbas, but Ukraine has no good transport to move them and most of them are potentially needed where they are. You can't count on local self-defense forces to be capable of redeployment at all. They aren't organized or resourced to do that. The M113s recently provided are useful to Ukraine. They are old and aren't even RPG proof, but they can move troops. They help, but it is nowhere near enough to create a "mobile striking force". Neither side has actually shown the agility to concentrate a large force from disparate areas quickly. However, Russia doesn't need to. Ukraine does.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas. It is hard to surprise anybody. Russia has the use of an IAD system located in their territory and therefore untouchable. Ukraine does not. Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

I have to disagree. What Russia has shown us is that an Army that invades another nation without an actual battle plan and the belief the other side won't fight is probably going to get beat. Half the army probably still thought it was an exercise when they first came under fire. That mistake will not be made again. Russia is going to concentrate their strength because they know Ukraine can't mount an offensive that threatens them.

Russia's current army isn't anywhere near as capable (relative to potential opponents) as the old USSR army was. However, they are very capable of executing a campaign like the one they did in Syria, where they step by step grind down an opponent that does not have the combat power to "shape the battle space". Russia will fight on their own terms when they want and how they want. This requires lots less skill than a "go for broke" multi-pronged advance, which is what they attempted the first time. Ukraine has to sit there and take it. No matter how much courage or skill Ukraine has, they can't win unless Russia quits. Russia won't quit as long as Putin remains in charge and has political control. So...

[Goose]

Think you're wrong on this as well. Attrition favors Ukraine in a long war (as long as Western resolve to provide weapons doesn't falter). Russia's tank manufacturer has already shut down production due to lack of imported parts. Ukraine meanwhile is getting more and more advanced weapons from the West. Russia doesn't have a massive army like during the Cold War, in terms of manpower Ukraine has more than Russia can commit to Ukraine, and Russian attrition as the attacking force has been and will continue to be higher.

Ukraine unfortunately does not have more manpower. Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them. These troops are also troops Ukraine cannot afford to lose, so getting them cut off and surrounded in the Donbas must be avoided at all costs. Ukraine has other troops in other parts of the country that could in theory be moved to the Donbas, but Ukraine has no good transport to move them and most of them are potentially needed where they are. You can't count on local self-defense forces to be capable of redeployment at all. They aren't organized or resourced to do that. The M113s recently provided are useful to Ukraine. They are old and aren't even RPG proof, but they can move troops. They help, but it is nowhere near enough to create a "mobile striking force". Neither side has actually shown the agility to concentrate a large force from disparate areas quickly. However, Russia doesn't need to. Ukraine does.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas. It is hard to surprise anybody. Russia has the use of an IAD system located in their territory and therefore untouchable. Ukraine does not. Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

Russia's military has shown us their best already, and their best frankly sucked and now is mostly dead or wounded. Ukraine has proven the saavy experts wrong thus far and my bet is for that to continue.

I have to disagree. What Russia has shown us is that an Army that invades another nation without an actual battle plan and the belief the other side won't fight is probably going to get beat. Half the army probably still thought it was an exercise when they first came under fire. That mistake will not be made again. Russia is going to concentrate their strength because they know Ukraine can't mount an offensive that threatens them.

Russia's current army isn't anywhere near as capable (relative to potential opponents) as the old USSR army was. However, they are very capable of executing a campaign like the one they did in Syria, where they step by step grind down an opponent that does not have the combat power to "shape the battle space". Russia will fight on their own terms when they want and how they want. This requires lots less skill than a "go for broke" multi-pronged advance, which is what they attempted the first time. Ukraine has to sit there and take it. No matter how much courage or skill Ukraine has, they can't win unless Russia quits. Russia won't quit as long as Putin remains in charge and has political control. So...

[dabigv13]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does. 

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.


.....
Damaged Moskva

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does. 

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.


.....
Damaged Moskva

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]

[BigJohn043]

In my view, Putin invaded Ukraine primarily to bolster his domestic popularity.  It has worked for him before and frankly in terms of popularity it has worked this time.  The Russian public is strongly supportive of both this war and Putin.  I know that is hard to believe but it is clearly true.

So Putin is going to try to end this war once it no longer works for him domestically.  The idea that Putin can't withstand a defeat is totally wrong.  He has convinced the Russian people that this invasion is justified.  He can absolutely convince them that a loss is really a successful demilitarization of Ukraine.

Zelensky OTOH has the public support to fight for years.  Ukrainians rightly believe that they were attacked for no reason.  IMO, the West will be happy to continue to send both arms and humanitarian aid.  Financing a proxy war that saps Russia is a dream for the West.

Militarily, Russia knows it cannot conquer Ukraine.  The question is what they are going to try to take and hold.  In the South, I expect them to retreat from Kherson at some point and hold the line east of the Dnipro river.  I can them see them trying to hold a line from Vasylivka east to Donestsk which they held prewar.

In the North, Russia has retreated back behind the Donets river just to the east of Kharkiv.  The issue is that they have made no progress in the Luhansk area which has been defended by the UKR army since 2014.  To create a line here the Russians need to attack south from Izytum.  That is the place to watch.  If the Russians can't do this I just don't see a logical line for them to hold other than retreating back to Russia.

Normally you would think time is on the Russians side.  But Russia is going to have a problem replacing equipment while UKR is going to get a steady flow from the West.  On the manpower side, Russian can bring in conscripts but they will be poorly trained with low morale.  OTOH, I would expect the UKR to be training recruits with very high morale.  UKR has something like 10M men of military age so the only issue is how many they can equip and train.

Russian has to grab what they can and then try to hold in a way that doesn't continue to attrit their forces.  I think the next 30 or so days are critical.  If they can't take ground around Luhansk they likely have to retreat from all of Northern UKR.  Even after this they can claim that they have united their territory in the Dombass with the Crimea.....

[BigJohn043]

In my view, Putin invaded Ukraine primarily to bolster his domestic popularity.  It has worked for him before and frankly in terms of popularity it has worked this time.  The Russian public is strongly supportive of both this war and Putin.  I know that is hard to believe but it is clearly true.

So Putin is going to try to end this war once it no longer works for him domestically.  The idea that Putin can't withstand a defeat is totally wrong.  He has convinced the Russian people that this invasion is justified.  He can absolutely convince them that a loss is really a successful demilitarization of Ukraine.

Zelensky OTOH has the public support to fight for years.  Ukrainians rightly believe that they were attacked for no reason.  IMO, the West will be happy to continue to send both arms and humanitarian aid.  Financing a proxy war that saps Russia is a dream for the West.

Militarily, Russia knows it cannot conquer Ukraine.  The question is what they are going to try to take and hold.  In the South, I expect them to retreat from Kherson at some point and hold the line east of the Dnipro river.  I can them see them trying to hold a line from Vasylivka east to Donestsk which they held prewar.

In the North, Russia has retreated back behind the Donets river just to the east of Kharkiv.  The issue is that they have made no progress in the Luhansk area which has been defended by the UKR army since 2014.  To create a line here the Russians need to attack south from Izytum.  That is the place to watch.  If the Russians can't do this I just don't see a logical line for them to hold other than retreating back to Russia.

Normally you would think time is on the Russians side.  But Russia is going to have a problem replacing equipment while UKR is going to get a steady flow from the West.  On the manpower side, Russian can bring in conscripts but they will be poorly trained with low morale.  OTOH, I would expect the UKR to be training recruits with very high morale.  UKR has something like 10M men of military age so the only issue is how many they can equip and train.

Russian has to grab what they can and then try to hold in a way that doesn't continue to attrit their forces.  I think the next 30 or so days are critical.  If they can't take ground around Luhansk they likely have to retreat from all of Northern UKR.  Even after this they can claim that they have united their territory in the Dombass with the Crimea.....

[Goose]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

CNN last night at 2100. You are of course correct that normally the attacker wants a 3:1 advantage over the defender (rule of thumb). However, this operation won't be going against a "prepared defense". The area is much too large to put troops everywhere. The attacker is going to look for gaps, and there will be gaps, lots of them. Interestingly, back in 2014 Ukraine exploited such a gap to inject the 95th Air Assault Brigade (Mechanized) who then conducted the largest and longest armored raid behind enemy lines in recorded military history. See https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmo...iore17.pdf which I cited before. The problem is that most of the Ukrainian troops aren't able to move like that. They can be cut off and surrounded. So could Russian troops if Ukraine had enough mobile striking power to do it. They don't.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

They were on the roads because the plan wanted them to move fast. There was no plan for when they couldn't move fast. Also, it was the muddy season, which was long this year. Mother nature seems to be helping Ukraine, as the mud is persisting. It shouldn't be. Furthermore, in the North there are lots of wooded areas that needed to be traversed. Tanks don't like wooded areas generally. The Donbas mostly is open farmland.

That said, it is fair to question to what extent Russia can execute large scale operations in Ukraine. I don't think they are going to set any records that way. It really does come down to how well they can fight. I expect them to do better than before. In Syria, they would just cease operations if things didn't go well, knowing that the rebels couldn't generate an attack that would drive them back. I think that is true in Ukraine as well.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does.

I have no idea how many PGMs of various types Russia has left. However, as far as I have seen the Ukrainians have very very few from the start. They are also not getting any from the West. The problem that Zelensky keeps pointing out is that Ukraine needs offensive weapons to drive the Russians back. He isn't getting any. One reason for that is that these weapons need training that (up to now) is considered too long to be useful. Even giving the Ukraine Leopard 1 tanks requires six weeks before they get there, best case, plus any required training.

It is very difficult to synthesize a military supply philosophy when you can't deliver anything other than what is immediately useful. All the manufacturing capability in the world doesn't matter under that constraint. Actually, all the weapons being delivered so far are from "stock". No contracts let today will deliver anything for months, and in most cases years. If Ukraine lasts that long, it may matter.

In any case, in open areas where concealment is difficult, ambushing armored units with Javelin style weapons is also difficult. Air strikes on such infantry formations don't require much precision. Lots of bombs work pretty well. That situation does go back to WWII. However, the normal approach is to bypass and encircle such infantry concentrations. They can't move quickly, and the mechanized force can. It is fair to question Russia's ability to do this. It is difficult to believe they can't. It is pretty basic.

A question that others have asked about on the net is whether Russia can capture defended built up areas in the Donbas. The answer is not without great delay and great cost. They should endeavor to NOT attempt this, but rather bypass such areas. Surround them with low quality troops and force a decision elsewhere. However, there are some preliminary indications that Russia isn't going to do this. If they fight "stupid" they can indeed lose.

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.

I didn't write the tease, but I think none of us here actually know what is happening in Ukraine, and I fear that lots of the people making decisions in governments don't really either. I find it interesting to see what others think, because often a different pair of eyes on the same data can reach a different and better conclusion. I suspect nobody on the board is really "qualified" to opine on this war, but I suspect also that many of the "experts" actually aren't either. I am surprised at how often the alleged "experts" say things that are just factually wrong. As an example, some of the experts talked about the Moskva firing cruise missiles into Ukraine, which of course she never did and could not do.

[Goose]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

CNN last night at 2100. You are of course correct that normally the attacker wants a 3:1 advantage over the defender (rule of thumb). However, this operation won't be going against a "prepared defense". The area is much too large to put troops everywhere. The attacker is going to look for gaps, and there will be gaps, lots of them. Interestingly, back in 2014 Ukraine exploited such a gap to inject the 95th Air Assault Brigade (Mechanized) who then conducted the largest and longest armored raid behind enemy lines in recorded military history. See https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmo...iore17.pdf which I cited before. The problem is that most of the Ukrainian troops aren't able to move like that. They can be cut off and surrounded. So could Russian troops if Ukraine had enough mobile striking power to do it. They don't.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

They were on the roads because the plan wanted them to move fast. There was no plan for when they couldn't move fast. Also, it was the muddy season, which was long this year. Mother nature seems to be helping Ukraine, as the mud is persisting. It shouldn't be. Furthermore, in the North there are lots of wooded areas that needed to be traversed. Tanks don't like wooded areas generally. The Donbas mostly is open farmland.

That said, it is fair to question to what extent Russia can execute large scale operations in Ukraine. I don't think they are going to set any records that way. It really does come down to how well they can fight. I expect them to do better than before. In Syria, they would just cease operations if things didn't go well, knowing that the rebels couldn't generate an attack that would drive them back. I think that is true in Ukraine as well.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does.

I have no idea how many PGMs of various types Russia has left. However, as far as I have seen the Ukrainians have very very few from the start. They are also not getting any from the West. The problem that Zelensky keeps pointing out is that Ukraine needs offensive weapons to drive the Russians back. He isn't getting any. One reason for that is that these weapons need training that (up to now) is considered too long to be useful. Even giving the Ukraine Leopard 1 tanks requires six weeks before they get there, best case, plus any required training.

It is very difficult to synthesize a military supply philosophy when you can't deliver anything other than what is immediately useful. All the manufacturing capability in the world doesn't matter under that constraint. Actually, all the weapons being delivered so far are from "stock". No contracts let today will deliver anything for months, and in most cases years. If Ukraine lasts that long, it may matter.

In any case, in open areas where concealment is difficult, ambushing armored units with Javelin style weapons is also difficult. Air strikes on such infantry formations don't require much precision. Lots of bombs work pretty well. That situation does go back to WWII. However, the normal approach is to bypass and encircle such infantry concentrations. They can't move quickly, and the mechanized force can. It is fair to question Russia's ability to do this. It is difficult to believe they can't. It is pretty basic.

A question that others have asked about on the net is whether Russia can capture defended built up areas in the Donbas. The answer is not without great delay and great cost. They should endeavor to NOT attempt this, but rather bypass such areas. Surround them with low quality troops and force a decision elsewhere. However, there are some preliminary indications that Russia isn't going to do this. If they fight "stupid" they can indeed lose.

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.

I didn't write the tease, but I think none of us here actually know what is happening in Ukraine, and I fear that lots of the people making decisions in governments don't really either. I find it interesting to see what others think, because often a different pair of eyes on the same data can reach a different and better conclusion. I suspect nobody on the board is really "qualified" to opine on this war, but I suspect also that many of the "experts" actually aren't either. I am surprised at how often the alleged "experts" say things that are just factually wrong. As an example, some of the experts talked about the Moskva firing cruise missiles into Ukraine, which of course she never did and could not do.

[Goose]

.....
Damaged Moskva



[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]

I am very suspicious the picture is a fake. As near as I can determine, the Moskva was sunk at night. The timeline is as follows:

Thursday, 0100 hrs The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that a “fire” aboard the Cruiser had broken out after an ammunition explosion aboard the ship.
0105 hrs: Reports of an SOS signal in Morse Code was being sent by Moskva.
0114 hrs: According to radio messages from the Cruiser, a port-side list has developed and more explosions occur.
0147 hrs.: The ship has lost electrical power.
0207 hrs: A Turkish vessel responding to the SOS Turkey reports that the “Moskva” appears to be sinking and takes off 54 sailors of the Moskva’s crew.


0248 hrs: Turkish and Romanian authorities report the Cruiser has sunk.
Even if the times are GMT, not local, the ship sank at 0548 local. Picture shows full sun, ship not listing much. Further, there was a sea running that made rescue difficult. The picture shows a DFC. Doubt it is real.

[Goose]

.....
Damaged Moskva



[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]

I am very suspicious the picture is a fake. As near as I can determine, the Moskva was sunk at night. The timeline is as follows:

Thursday, 0100 hrs The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that a “fire” aboard the Cruiser had broken out after an ammunition explosion aboard the ship.
0105 hrs: Reports of an SOS signal in Morse Code was being sent by Moskva.
0114 hrs: According to radio messages from the Cruiser, a port-side list has developed and more explosions occur.
0147 hrs.: The ship has lost electrical power.
0207 hrs: A Turkish vessel responding to the SOS Turkey reports that the “Moskva” appears to be sinking and takes off 54 sailors of the Moskva’s crew.


0248 hrs: Turkish and Romanian authorities report the Cruiser has sunk.
Even if the times are GMT, not local, the ship sank at 0548 local. Picture shows full sun, ship not listing much. Further, there was a sea running that made rescue difficult. The picture shows a DFC. Doubt it is real.

[dabigv13]

Russian arms manufacturing being hampered by sanctions-

Sanctions affecting SAM production due to lack of German components. Perhaps why India's second S400 battery delivery is indefinitely delayed.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704394

No more tanks either.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704376

------


On issue of relocating troops, I think foreign intelligence can really help Ukraine on this issue. Early in the war, they had to be prepared for possibility of Russian and/or Belarussian attacks all the way along their Northern border. They also had to prepare for a possible amphibious assault on Odessa. Now, developments have precluded much of that and so they can safely relocate many of the troops they may have had to hold back, and should get enough forewarning from US/other foreign intelligence which had the initial invasion nailed, that should Russia try to open another axis they should be able to rotate back anything necessary to defend against this.


.....

Or maybe you don't need the CIA, NRO, NSA....just follow the stolen airpods

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status...XqRsKkviIA[/tweet]
.....

More Moskva sinking-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1515822840544743427?s=20&t=MatQOlKf_B-pkij_-2jYSA[/tweet]

From a Turkish ship spotter account-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1515831501631508482?s=20&t=CcnU1v0jSha_gM-_fOVC7g[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Russian arms manufacturing being hampered by sanctions-

Sanctions affecting SAM production due to lack of German components. Perhaps why India's second S400 battery delivery is indefinitely delayed.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704394

No more tanks either.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-704376

------


On issue of relocating troops, I think foreign intelligence can really help Ukraine on this issue. Early in the war, they had to be prepared for possibility of Russian and/or Belarussian attacks all the way along their Northern border. They also had to prepare for a possible amphibious assault on Odessa. Now, developments have precluded much of that and so they can safely relocate many of the troops they may have had to hold back, and should get enough forewarning from US/other foreign intelligence which had the initial invasion nailed, that should Russia try to open another axis they should be able to rotate back anything necessary to defend against this.


.....

Or maybe you don't need the CIA, NRO, NSA....just follow the stolen airpods

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status...XqRsKkviIA[/tweet]
.....

More Moskva sinking-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1515822840544743427?s=20&t=MatQOlKf_B-pkij_-2jYSA[/tweet]

From a Turkish ship spotter account-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/1515831501631508482?s=20&t=CcnU1v0jSha_gM-_fOVC7g[/tweet]

[BostonCard]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Mos...nking.html

Open Source analyst and experienced ship spotter Yörük Işık has determined that some of the photos were taken from Project 22870 rescue tug SB742. This ship is part of the Black Sea Fleet's 145th Rescue Ship Squadron, 1st Group.

BC

---

Another photo…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1515821259225022466?s=21&t=hrfVzdU9dAeU4n5Tvq5cjQ[/tweet]

While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.

BC

---

Open ground cuts both ways. This is about 20 miles north of Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/osint88/status/1515143205431517185?s=21&t=IQHDTNt-oyj_2WNP-l-1Dg[/tweet]

BC

---

One more thread, by a naval architect…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/r_p_one/status/1515829242801672194?s=21&t=IQHDTNt-oyj_2WNP-l-1Dg[/tweet]

While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.

BC

[BostonCard]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Mos...nking.html

Open Source analyst and experienced ship spotter Yörük Işık has determined that some of the photos were taken from Project 22870 rescue tug SB742. This ship is part of the Black Sea Fleet's 145th Rescue Ship Squadron, 1st Group.

BC

---

Another photo…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1515821259225022466?s=21&t=hrfVzdU9dAeU4n5Tvq5cjQ[/tweet]

While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.

BC

---

Open ground cuts both ways. This is about 20 miles north of Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/osint88/status/1515143205431517185?s=21&t=IQHDTNt-oyj_2WNP-l-1Dg[/tweet]

BC

---

One more thread, by a naval architect…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/r_p_one/status/1515829242801672194?s=21&t=IQHDTNt-oyj_2WNP-l-1Dg[/tweet]

While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.

BC

[newguy]

the photographs of the Moskva appear to be legitimate.
i'm hoping that most of her sailors survived, but as with the rest of you, i'm still waiting on the evidence.

[newguy]

the photographs of the Moskva appear to be legitimate.
i'm hoping that most of her sailors survived, but as with the rest of you, i'm still waiting on the evidence.

[BostonCard]

If you want some evidence that a Number might have survived, it does look like the lifeboats were deployed as of the time the photo was taken. I agree that the sailors’ fate being a mystery several days later is baffling.

BC

---

Sadly, it seems Mariuol’s fall is imminent.  I’ve been thinking so for weeks, and the Ukrainian resistance has contested every inch of the city, but it now looks like the last of the Ukrainian defense is concentrated in the steel plant, and I expect the Russians will reduce it to rubble.

Sad end to an impressive display of bravery in the face of overwhelming odds.

BC

[BostonCard]

If you want some evidence that a Number might have survived, it does look like the lifeboats were deployed as of the time the photo was taken. I agree that the sailors’ fate being a mystery several days later is baffling.

BC

---

Sadly, it seems Mariuol’s fall is imminent.  I’ve been thinking so for weeks, and the Ukrainian resistance has contested every inch of the city, but it now looks like the last of the Ukrainian defense is concentrated in the steel plant, and I expect the Russians will reduce it to rubble.

Sad end to an impressive display of bravery in the face of overwhelming odds.

BC

[dabigv13]

The steel mill has been the center of resistance and a main target for some time of Russian artillery and airstrikes. Supposedly it has extensive underground tunnels that can survive a nuclear blast. It might take the Russians quite some time to clear it when it's full of people like this.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1515609442305429512?s=20&t=txWk4DRdgW1v9fHLt3rqag[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

The steel mill has been the center of resistance and a main target for some time of Russian artillery and airstrikes. Supposedly it has extensive underground tunnels that can survive a nuclear blast. It might take the Russians quite some time to clear it when it's full of people like this.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1515609442305429512?s=20&t=txWk4DRdgW1v9fHLt3rqag[/tweet]

[M T]

I am very suspicious the picture is a fake. As near as I can determine, the Moskva was sunk at night. The timeline is as follows:



Thursday, 0100 hrs The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that a “fire” aboard the Cruiser had broken out after an ammunition explosion aboard the ship.

0105 hrs: Reports of an SOS signal in Morse Code was being sent by Moskva.

0114 hrs: According to radio messages from the Cruiser, a port-side list has developed and more explosions occur.

0147 hrs.: The ship has lost electrical power.

0207 hrs: A Turkish vessel responding to the SOS Turkey reports that the “Moskva” appears to be sinking and takes off 54 sailors of the Moskva’s crew.




0248 hrs: Turkish and Romanian authorities report the Cruiser has sunk.

Even if the times are GMT, not local, the ship sank at 0548 local. Picture shows full sun, ship not listing much. Further, there was a sea running that made rescue difficult. The picture shows a DFC. Doubt it is real.

Contrast the times you give to the times  in
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/202...tyPhoto/0/

The slide containing the SAR image indicates an image time of 15:52 UTC (6:52PM local time).
A calculation for the coordinates shows sunset would be at 16:23 UTC, a half hour later.

The picture shows a good-sized ship (something like 1/3 the length of the Moskva) alongside on the starboard side, which agrees with the SAR image.
No sun on the water, which is consistent with it being below the marine layer in the late afternoon.

If the vessel from which the picture was taken was the tug (as one source thought), it might be the possible vessel on the port side near the bow in the SAR image.  I would imagine a tug pushing from there would help to keep the ship from listing more.

I would guess the photo (with the man's shoulder) was taken some time (5 to 60 minutes) before the SAR image.  There is another image, taken from further away.  It appears that one may be before the vessel was alongside the starboard side.

In (a better version of) the closer-in photo, there are two objects in the water, which I presume are evacuation craft. One is at a set of steps over the port side near the aft. I would interpret it as taking on crew, but I see no crew.  It appears to be idling, generally facing in the same direction as the ship.  The other is just at the port side of the aft, with whitewater behind it suggesting it is motorized and in motion toward the aft and in position to go behind the ship to get to the vessel on the starboard side.


(By the way, the "tease" was not questioning the poster's analysis.  It was just that poster said his opinion was different than the savvy analysts, which I was pointing out that he was excluding himself from the savvy analysts.   Personally, I am awed by the collective knowledge of our posters.)

[M T]

I am very suspicious the picture is a fake. As near as I can determine, the Moskva was sunk at night. The timeline is as follows:



Thursday, 0100 hrs The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that a “fire” aboard the Cruiser had broken out after an ammunition explosion aboard the ship.

0105 hrs: Reports of an SOS signal in Morse Code was being sent by Moskva.

0114 hrs: According to radio messages from the Cruiser, a port-side list has developed and more explosions occur.

0147 hrs.: The ship has lost electrical power.

0207 hrs: A Turkish vessel responding to the SOS Turkey reports that the “Moskva” appears to be sinking and takes off 54 sailors of the Moskva’s crew.




0248 hrs: Turkish and Romanian authorities report the Cruiser has sunk.

Even if the times are GMT, not local, the ship sank at 0548 local. Picture shows full sun, ship not listing much. Further, there was a sea running that made rescue difficult. The picture shows a DFC. Doubt it is real.

Contrast the times you give to the times  in
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/202...tyPhoto/0/

The slide containing the SAR image indicates an image time of 15:52 UTC (6:52PM local time).
A calculation for the coordinates shows sunset would be at 16:23 UTC, a half hour later.

The picture shows a good-sized ship (something like 1/3 the length of the Moskva) alongside on the starboard side, which agrees with the SAR image.
No sun on the water, which is consistent with it being below the marine layer in the late afternoon.

If the vessel from which the picture was taken was the tug (as one source thought), it might be the possible vessel on the port side near the bow in the SAR image.  I would imagine a tug pushing from there would help to keep the ship from listing more.

I would guess the photo (with the man's shoulder) was taken some time (5 to 60 minutes) before the SAR image.  There is another image, taken from further away.  It appears that one may be before the vessel was alongside the starboard side.

In (a better version of) the closer-in photo, there are two objects in the water, which I presume are evacuation craft. One is at a set of steps over the port side near the aft. I would interpret it as taking on crew, but I see no crew.  It appears to be idling, generally facing in the same direction as the ship.  The other is just at the port side of the aft, with whitewater behind it suggesting it is motorized and in motion toward the aft and in position to go behind the ship to get to the vessel on the starboard side.


(By the way, the "tease" was not questioning the poster's analysis.  It was just that poster said his opinion was different than the savvy analysts, which I was pointing out that he was excluding himself from the savvy analysts.   Personally, I am awed by the collective knowledge of our posters.)

[Goose]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)
BC

---

Another photo…
While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.
BC
One more thread, by a naval architect…


While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.


BC

It is possible the ship survived until morning, although that contradicts the reported timeline by Turkey, Romania, and Ukraine. Not to say they couldn't all be wrong, as there is plenty of ambiguity in the data. If the photos are real, it really is a serious indictment of Russian competence. I had always assumed the missiles had hit a Vulcan box, the fuel fire immediately spread and ignited it's twin, and from then on they all cooked off destroying the ship.

The picture shows the SS-N-12 boxes intact, and a fire in or near the engine room. Normally, that shouldn't have been a fatal situation. The engine area is the best protected against fire because engines do catch fire. I would not expect this to sink the ship, at least not quickly. She actually doesn't look that bad. Almost everybody should have been able to get off the ship safely, they launched the lifeboats, she is still floating. I would not expect mass casualties based on what we see. There appear to be no ongoing rescue attempts, so maybe the Russians were telling at least mostly the truth that the crew was rescued. In the pictures I see a 10 to 20 degree list to port, more or less.

It is interesting that the weather is shown as a dead flat calm. The Russians claim the tow failed because the ship capsized in heavy seas. The Ukrainians said the Russian rescue effort failed because of ammunition explosions and heavy seas. I see no heavy seas in the picture. I can certainly believe the Russians would lie about that, but the Ukrainians???

The OSINT guy kind of punts the validity determination to a Ukrainian ship tracker. No exactly a full sail endorsement. I am still a bit Missouri on this myself. When the mainstream media buys it, I will. Until then, it is just another data point along with the Turkish ship that rescued 54 sailors and disappeared from sight.

[Goose]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)
BC

---

Another photo…
While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.
BC
One more thread, by a naval architect…


While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.


BC

It is possible the ship survived until morning, although that contradicts the reported timeline by Turkey, Romania, and Ukraine. Not to say they couldn't all be wrong, as there is plenty of ambiguity in the data. If the photos are real, it really is a serious indictment of Russian competence. I had always assumed the missiles had hit a Vulcan box, the fuel fire immediately spread and ignited it's twin, and from then on they all cooked off destroying the ship.

The picture shows the SS-N-12 boxes intact, and a fire in or near the engine room. Normally, that shouldn't have been a fatal situation. The engine area is the best protected against fire because engines do catch fire. I would not expect this to sink the ship, at least not quickly. She actually doesn't look that bad. Almost everybody should have been able to get off the ship safely, they launched the lifeboats, she is still floating. I would not expect mass casualties based on what we see. There appear to be no ongoing rescue attempts, so maybe the Russians were telling at least mostly the truth that the crew was rescued. In the pictures I see a 10 to 20 degree list to port, more or less.

It is interesting that the weather is shown as a dead flat calm. The Russians claim the tow failed because the ship capsized in heavy seas. The Ukrainians said the Russian rescue effort failed because of ammunition explosions and heavy seas. I see no heavy seas in the picture. I can certainly believe the Russians would lie about that, but the Ukrainians???

The OSINT guy kind of punts the validity determination to a Ukrainian ship tracker. No exactly a full sail endorsement. I am still a bit Missouri on this myself. When the mainstream media buys it, I will. Until then, it is just another data point along with the Turkish ship that rescued 54 sailors and disappeared from sight.

[BostonCard]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1515809018853396492?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1515931307544662017?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.

BC

[BostonCard]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1515809018853396492?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1515931307544662017?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.

BC

[dabigv13]

Video of Moskva on fire

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1515962198488625152?s=20&t=v2E-7euJ2RJi7PkwyKeIow[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Video of Moskva on fire

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1515962198488625152?s=20&t=v2E-7euJ2RJi7PkwyKeIow[/tweet]

[Mick]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1515809018853396492?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1515931307544662017?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.

BC

I was reading a four-day-old article on the Center for Strategic & International Studies site that noted that the Russians were attempting a "cauldron battle" (surrounding the Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine), and that the best Ukrainian move would be to launch a series of spoiling attacks that, ideally, would prevent Russians from building up forces.  Went on to state that Ukraine should transition from defensive war to offensive action in order to counterattack Russia's assailable flanks, which could cascade low morale among Russian forces into larger scale surrenders and combat losses.  This is necessary to break the Russian army, given Ukraine's destroyed economy and displaced millions.

[Mick]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1515809018853396492?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

And

[tweet]https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1515931307544662017?s=21&t=tfwyF94_ND5G1upWNbEFJA[/tweet]

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.

BC

I was reading a four-day-old article on the Center for Strategic & International Studies site that noted that the Russians were attempting a "cauldron battle" (surrounding the Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine), and that the best Ukrainian move would be to launch a series of spoiling attacks that, ideally, would prevent Russians from building up forces.  Went on to state that Ukraine should transition from defensive war to offensive action in order to counterattack Russia's assailable flanks, which could cascade low morale among Russian forces into larger scale surrenders and combat losses.  This is necessary to break the Russian army, given Ukraine's destroyed economy and displaced millions.

[Goose]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.



BC

This is a good thing even if it doesn't result in the isolation of the Russian advance force because it forces the Russians to react to the Ukrainians instead of Russia dictating the location and nature of the next battle. It is that unplanned reactive activity that Russia has not shown the ability to execute. It also slows down Russian activity which can stretch out the logistics schedules, giving yet another chance to exploit a Russian weakness.

All actions in war carry risk, but not allowing your opponent to do what he wants and doing what he does not expect is the way to victory. This is especially true if you are the smaller force. Let's hope it works.

---

I was reading a four-day-old article on the Center for Strategic & International Studies site that noted that the Russians were attempting a "cauldron battle" (surrounding the Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine), and that the best Ukrainian move would be to launch a series of spoiling attacks that, ideally, would prevent Russians from building up forces.  Went on to state that Ukraine should transition from defensive war to offensive action in order to counterattack Russia's assailable flanks, which could cascade low morale among Russian forces into larger scale surrenders and combat losses.  This is necessary to break the Russian army, given Ukraine's destroyed economy and displaced millions.

I also saw that article a few days ago. I think it is correct in it's recommended actions, although I think it makes a virtue of necessity. Ukraine can't allow it's forces in the Donbas to be cut off, so they can't just sit there and allow themselves to be encircled. Counter-attacking the "arms" of the encircling forces is a way to prevent that. Doing so from cities may force/lure Russia to attempt to capture those cities, which requires forces that Russia probably can't spare/doesn't have. In Syria, the rebels were not in a position to ever do something like this, so Russia didn't have to worry about it. In Ukraine, they do, which allows Russia an opportunity to screw it up.

It has been clear from the start that the morale of the Russian forces is low. Ukraine needs to keep it that way. Even if the Russian forces don't start surrendering in mass, they may not fight very hard. That may be enough to cause the Russian army to implode at the top, as Putin purges generals who are not winning. Putin's morale can be a weapon too.

[Goose]

Interesting, it appears that the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the Russians in Izium.

I hope they pull it off.  If the Ukrainians cut off 22 Russian BTGs in Izium, that’s probably about 1/5 of the total Russian force.



BC

This is a good thing even if it doesn't result in the isolation of the Russian advance force because it forces the Russians to react to the Ukrainians instead of Russia dictating the location and nature of the next battle. It is that unplanned reactive activity that Russia has not shown the ability to execute. It also slows down Russian activity which can stretch out the logistics schedules, giving yet another chance to exploit a Russian weakness.

All actions in war carry risk, but not allowing your opponent to do what he wants and doing what he does not expect is the way to victory. This is especially true if you are the smaller force. Let's hope it works.

---

I was reading a four-day-old article on the Center for Strategic & International Studies site that noted that the Russians were attempting a "cauldron battle" (surrounding the Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine), and that the best Ukrainian move would be to launch a series of spoiling attacks that, ideally, would prevent Russians from building up forces.  Went on to state that Ukraine should transition from defensive war to offensive action in order to counterattack Russia's assailable flanks, which could cascade low morale among Russian forces into larger scale surrenders and combat losses.  This is necessary to break the Russian army, given Ukraine's destroyed economy and displaced millions.

I also saw that article a few days ago. I think it is correct in it's recommended actions, although I think it makes a virtue of necessity. Ukraine can't allow it's forces in the Donbas to be cut off, so they can't just sit there and allow themselves to be encircled. Counter-attacking the "arms" of the encircling forces is a way to prevent that. Doing so from cities may force/lure Russia to attempt to capture those cities, which requires forces that Russia probably can't spare/doesn't have. In Syria, the rebels were not in a position to ever do something like this, so Russia didn't have to worry about it. In Ukraine, they do, which allows Russia an opportunity to screw it up.

It has been clear from the start that the morale of the Russian forces is low. Ukraine needs to keep it that way. Even if the Russian forces don't start surrendering in mass, they may not fight very hard. That may be enough to cause the Russian army to implode at the top, as Putin purges generals who are not winning. Putin's morale can be a weapon too.

[OutsiderFan]

This is a truth bomb if I've ever seen one:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1515703125818101760[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

This is a truth bomb if I've ever seen one:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1515703125818101760[/tweet]