[Goose]

Russia is for sure going after rail supply lines in the Donbas:

I don’t see info on whether Russia is trying, or succeeding, in knocking out rail lines deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory.

Russia might be hitting things but doesn't seem to be knocking out rail lines for long.

Exactly so. They are still firing at the wrong things. Train stations are nice big targets that are easy to hit. They should be firing at bridges. An accurate attack on a bridge comes from the side, not straight down, and is aimed at destroying the support structure of the bridge. As the USAF found out in Vietnam, you can hit the rails on the bridge (or any part of the bridge decking) and make a nice big hole. That will shut down traffic much longer than blowing up a rail line on land does. However, depending exactly on what was hit, it usually can be fixed in a few days. Not great, but not terrible. However, if you destroy one or more support structures, fixing the bridge becomes a major engineering task.

It has been suggested that even Russia's "precision" ordinance can't make a side strike on a bridge abutment (a large fixed target). That may be true, because I simply don't believe the Russian military is that stupid. They know what the target should be. Possibly they also know they can't hit it?

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/odesa-militar...51161.html
Three missiles. Two missed the bridge entirely. One hit the on the bridge deck (apparently). Damage minimal. Railway line is being repaired. Yep, they appear to be unable to hit things reliably.

Substation OTOH are a good target. Either they aren't hitting them accurately or Ukraine is doing a work-around. If the transformers are OK and only wiring was damaged, it can be fixed pretty quick. Most electrified railroads of any size have a "portable" substation mounted on a semi-trailer that they can move to temporarily replace a substation while they work on it. They seldom have more than one such unit. It is also possible under some circumstances to power a "dead" section of tracks from an adjacent block. This is tricky and usually involves significant speed restrictions. This is something you normally don't do unless you have tried it and know the issues. You can easily blow up another substation if things get out of control. A well executed attack on the substations will shut down the line, so let's hope the Russians can't pull it off.

[Goose]

Russia is for sure going after rail supply lines in the Donbas:

I don’t see info on whether Russia is trying, or succeeding, in knocking out rail lines deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory.

Russia might be hitting things but doesn't seem to be knocking out rail lines for long.

Exactly so. They are still firing at the wrong things. Train stations are nice big targets that are easy to hit. They should be firing at bridges. An accurate attack on a bridge comes from the side, not straight down, and is aimed at destroying the support structure of the bridge. As the USAF found out in Vietnam, you can hit the rails on the bridge (or any part of the bridge decking) and make a nice big hole. That will shut down traffic much longer than blowing up a rail line on land does. However, depending exactly on what was hit, it usually can be fixed in a few days. Not great, but not terrible. However, if you destroy one or more support structures, fixing the bridge becomes a major engineering task.

It has been suggested that even Russia's "precision" ordinance can't make a side strike on a bridge abutment (a large fixed target). That may be true, because I simply don't believe the Russian military is that stupid. They know what the target should be. Possibly they also know they can't hit it?

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/odesa-militar...51161.html
Three missiles. Two missed the bridge entirely. One hit the on the bridge deck (apparently). Damage minimal. Railway line is being repaired. Yep, they appear to be unable to hit things reliably.

Substation OTOH are a good target. Either they aren't hitting them accurately or Ukraine is doing a work-around. If the transformers are OK and only wiring was damaged, it can be fixed pretty quick. Most electrified railroads of any size have a "portable" substation mounted on a semi-trailer that they can move to temporarily replace a substation while they work on it. They seldom have more than one such unit. It is also possible under some circumstances to power a "dead" section of tracks from an adjacent block. This is tricky and usually involves significant speed restrictions. This is something you normally don't do unless you have tried it and know the issues. You can easily blow up another substation if things get out of control. A well executed attack on the substations will shut down the line, so let's hope the Russians can't pull it off.

[BostonCard]

I wouldn’t put it past the Russian army to be doing a lot of stuff for show.  They have one person they need to please, so they may be doing strategically dumb but highly visible attacks. Their objective is less to win the war than to make Putin happy.

Remember, there is very little military experience in Putin’s inner ranks. Even Shoigu (love how autocorrect tried to turn it to “Spotify”) is an engineer and politician, not a military man.

BC

[BostonCard]

I wouldn’t put it past the Russian army to be doing a lot of stuff for show.  They have one person they need to please, so they may be doing strategically dumb but highly visible attacks. Their objective is less to win the war than to make Putin happy.

Remember, there is very little military experience in Putin’s inner ranks. Even Shoigu (love how autocorrect tried to turn it to “Spotify”) is an engineer and politician, not a military man.

BC

[Goose]

I wouldn’t put it past the Russian army to be doing a lot of stuff for show.  They have one person they need to please, so they may be doing strategically dumb but highly visible attacks. Their objective is less to win the war than to make Putin happy.

Remember, there is very little military experience in Putin’s inner ranks. Even Shoigu (love how autocorrect tried to turn it to “Spotify”) is an engineer and politician, not a military man.

BC

I think you may be correct about the Russian Air Force. I think they don't want to fight and they are looking for ways to not do so. They are better than what we have seen. The zoomies are better educated than the Army officers and they know what is actually going on. The tactical rocket forces are Army and possibly aren't very strategically oriented. Dumb but highly visible matches that characterization. However, since they are now going after substations somebody has got a clue. Took two months to figure that out? Hard to believe, but apparently true.

One thing I really don't understand about the whole thing is why Russia after things didn't go well the first week and they weren't welcomed by flowers simply didn't turn off the lights. Yes, it harms civilians, but it also shuts down the rail network (probably) and a whole lot of other things the Ukraine needs to make war. Strategically, it is a no brainer. The only thing I can figure is that they can't do that because Ukraine needs the power to supply gas to the EU. I did check, and that is still going on. Ukraine has been bitching about Russian interference in the areas Russia controls. Insane beyond words, but true.

[Goose]

I wouldn’t put it past the Russian army to be doing a lot of stuff for show.  They have one person they need to please, so they may be doing strategically dumb but highly visible attacks. Their objective is less to win the war than to make Putin happy.

Remember, there is very little military experience in Putin’s inner ranks. Even Shoigu (love how autocorrect tried to turn it to “Spotify”) is an engineer and politician, not a military man.

BC

I think you may be correct about the Russian Air Force. I think they don't want to fight and they are looking for ways to not do so. They are better than what we have seen. The zoomies are better educated than the Army officers and they know what is actually going on. The tactical rocket forces are Army and possibly aren't very strategically oriented. Dumb but highly visible matches that characterization. However, since they are now going after substations somebody has got a clue. Took two months to figure that out? Hard to believe, but apparently true.

One thing I really don't understand about the whole thing is why Russia after things didn't go well the first week and they weren't welcomed by flowers simply didn't turn off the lights. Yes, it harms civilians, but it also shuts down the rail network (probably) and a whole lot of other things the Ukraine needs to make war. Strategically, it is a no brainer. The only thing I can figure is that they can't do that because Ukraine needs the power to supply gas to the EU. I did check, and that is still going on. Ukraine has been bitching about Russian interference in the areas Russia controls. Insane beyond words, but true.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? If not, and Russia cuts off the gas, Russia would be doing what I have hoped Germany would do themselves. This will cut off a revenue stream to Russia that constitutes a major part of their federal budget. I can only imagine Putin figures Germany will cave, either immediately or eventually. Poland isn't a big deal perhaps, but Germany certainly is. Otherwise it makes no sense.

The Germany government hasn't exactly been taking a strong line the last week or so. Hopefully Biden et al have been "coordinating" with Germany to ensure Germany does the "Right Thing". Macron, now that he is securely in office, should be doing the same. If Germany does cave, the damage to EU/US solidarity will be very large. I think it would also damage NATO's credibility. For Ukraine's sake, and the world's sake, I really hope Germany holds up their end. Of course, maybe Putin is just pissed at Poland and figures he can do this and still give Germany a pass to get the money.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? If not, and Russia cuts off the gas, Russia would be doing what I have hoped Germany would do themselves. This will cut off a revenue stream to Russia that constitutes a major part of their federal budget. I can only imagine Putin figures Germany will cave, either immediately or eventually. Poland isn't a big deal perhaps, but Germany certainly is. Otherwise it makes no sense.

The Germany government hasn't exactly been taking a strong line the last week or so. Hopefully Biden et al have been "coordinating" with Germany to ensure Germany does the "Right Thing". Macron, now that he is securely in office, should be doing the same. If Germany does cave, the damage to EU/US solidarity will be very large. I think it would also damage NATO's credibility. For Ukraine's sake, and the world's sake, I really hope Germany holds up their end. Of course, maybe Putin is just pissed at Poland and figures he can do this and still give Germany a pass to get the money.

[dabigv13]

Good new article on US intelligence sharing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nationa...-rcna26015

As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.

That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

Sounds like the unverified IL-76 shoot down did happen, or at least that anonymous US officials are willing to say it did and NBC is willing to go with it.

The CIA is also devoting significant resources, current and former officials say, to gathering intelligence with the aim of protecting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom the Russians want to kill. The agency is consulting with the Ukrainians on “how best to move him around, making sure that he’s not co-located with his entire chain of command, things like that,” a U.S. official said.

Very good long read here on the war-

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...l-delusion

The VDV – Russia’s airborne forces – spearheaded the invasion. In December, specialist units of
the VDV had wargamed out their role in the repression of Ukrainian civil society alongside the 9th
Directorate of the Fifth Service of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).9 The VDV assault units
received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of
their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel
in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated
counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport.

Dumb dumb dumb.

The question for the Donbas campaign therefore is not where
the exact frontline ends up by the end of May, but instead how this sets the conditions for
subsequent rounds of operations over the summer. For the Ukrainians, there is the question of
reconstitution and staving off exhaustion among their combat units. For the Russians, there is
the challenge of ensuring there are sufficient units in reserve. Both countries are therefore now
preparing for a more protracted fight. In Russia, this preparation has been visible in a steady
shift in rhetoric, which has been paving the way for the continuation of the struggle.

So far, Russia’s attempts to expand its available military manpower has rested on pressuring
conscripts to sign contracts of service and reducing the requirements for people to join without
prior military service. For Russia to significantly increase its numbers it would need to retain its
last round of conscripts and call up reserves. Both of these are politically contentious in Russia.
Nevertheless, the propaganda narrative and local initiatives to rally support appear to be creating
an environment in which 9 May can be used as a fulcrum to mobilise a much larger force. It
appears increasingly likely that rather than use it to announce victory, the Russian government
will instead use 9 May as the day on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially framed
as a ‘war’. The shift towards mobilisation also points to the preparation for a longer struggle.
Perhaps the best demonstration of this is that, parallel to the transition in rhetoric about the
war, the Russian government also embarked upon a process of transitioning its economy on to
a war footing to ensure the long-term supply of critical armaments.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has made extensive use of cruise and ballistic missiles to hit targets of
military, political and economic importance. Given the underperformance of the Russian Air
Force,50 these weapons are vital to the ongoing war effort. Exact stockpiles of these weapons
are not available but as the war has progressed Ukrainian officials have noted a downgrading
of the weapons systems employed for a range of mission sets, including a reversion to Grad-1
systems off the main axis.51 US assessments note that the Russian military appears to be
running low on precision-guided weapons.52

The authors physically inspected one
of these computers recovered from a crashed 9M727 during fieldwork in April. This computer
is roughly the size of an A4 sheet of paper and sits inside a heat shield able to withstand the
pressure as the missile accelerates and the heat that engulfs the system. The computer must
be remarkably robust, its components able to continue to function even as the structure
around it is warped by temperature changes. This requires highly specialised materials and
components. Of the seven socket attachment points allowing data to be moved through the
heat shield, one is of Soviet-era design and manufactured in Russia. The remaining six are all
products of US companies. The rails connecting the circuit boards to the computer housing,
which must maintain the alignment of the components under immense forces, are similarly of
US manufacture. The circuit boards themselves are sourced from the US.53

The FSB was managing large-scale penetrations
of the Ukrainian government prior to the invasion. Before the conflict, Ukraine’s domestic
counterintelligence agency, the SBU, was constrained in what it could do to counter these activities,
neither wanting to fracture Ukrainian politics by targeting political parties, nor being confident
that it could ensure prosecution through a compromised courts system. As soon as Russian forces
crossed the border and martial law was declared, things became simpler. In a series of raids the SBU
rapidly closed down the most dangerous elements of Russia’s networks on Ukrainian soil. Many
of Russia’s potential collaborators were left free, since the poor performance of Russian arms saw
their enthusiasm to cooperate with the losing side severely curtailed. Many took their money and
severed communications with their erstwhile handlers. The blame game between the FSB and the
Russian military has been intense.72

Huh, sounds familiar....

Finally, the Russian decision to double down is a high-stakes gamble. If Russia mobilises and
eventually overcomes Ukrainian resistance then NATO will face an aggressive, isolated and
militarised state. If Russia loses then President Putin has now begun radicalising the population
in the pursuit of policies that he will struggle to deliver. Failure to defeat the Ukrainian state after
relentlessly comparing it to the Nazi regime may have serious consequences for Putin and those
around him. To frame a conflict as existential and to lose must necessarily call the suitability of a
leader into question among Russia’s political elites. NATO states therefore need to consider how to
manage escalation pathways that follow if Russia is not only defeated in Donbas but finds its newly
mobilised and poorly trained troops, with few remaining stocks of precision munitions, unable to
deliver a victory in the summer. The death of Putin’s political project is plausible, but it has already
inflicted immense damage internationally and risks doing considerably more.

[dabigv13]

Good new article on US intelligence sharing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nationa...-rcna26015

As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.

That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

Sounds like the unverified IL-76 shoot down did happen, or at least that anonymous US officials are willing to say it did and NBC is willing to go with it.

The CIA is also devoting significant resources, current and former officials say, to gathering intelligence with the aim of protecting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom the Russians want to kill. The agency is consulting with the Ukrainians on “how best to move him around, making sure that he’s not co-located with his entire chain of command, things like that,” a U.S. official said.

Very good long read here on the war-

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...l-delusion

The VDV – Russia’s airborne forces – spearheaded the invasion. In December, specialist units of
the VDV had wargamed out their role in the repression of Ukrainian civil society alongside the 9th
Directorate of the Fifth Service of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).9 The VDV assault units
received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of
their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel
in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated
counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport.

Dumb dumb dumb.

The question for the Donbas campaign therefore is not where
the exact frontline ends up by the end of May, but instead how this sets the conditions for
subsequent rounds of operations over the summer. For the Ukrainians, there is the question of
reconstitution and staving off exhaustion among their combat units. For the Russians, there is
the challenge of ensuring there are sufficient units in reserve. Both countries are therefore now
preparing for a more protracted fight. In Russia, this preparation has been visible in a steady
shift in rhetoric, which has been paving the way for the continuation of the struggle.

So far, Russia’s attempts to expand its available military manpower has rested on pressuring
conscripts to sign contracts of service and reducing the requirements for people to join without
prior military service. For Russia to significantly increase its numbers it would need to retain its
last round of conscripts and call up reserves. Both of these are politically contentious in Russia.
Nevertheless, the propaganda narrative and local initiatives to rally support appear to be creating
an environment in which 9 May can be used as a fulcrum to mobilise a much larger force. It
appears increasingly likely that rather than use it to announce victory, the Russian government
will instead use 9 May as the day on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially framed
as a ‘war’. The shift towards mobilisation also points to the preparation for a longer struggle.
Perhaps the best demonstration of this is that, parallel to the transition in rhetoric about the
war, the Russian government also embarked upon a process of transitioning its economy on to
a war footing to ensure the long-term supply of critical armaments.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has made extensive use of cruise and ballistic missiles to hit targets of
military, political and economic importance. Given the underperformance of the Russian Air
Force,50 these weapons are vital to the ongoing war effort. Exact stockpiles of these weapons
are not available but as the war has progressed Ukrainian officials have noted a downgrading
of the weapons systems employed for a range of mission sets, including a reversion to Grad-1
systems off the main axis.51 US assessments note that the Russian military appears to be
running low on precision-guided weapons.52

The authors physically inspected one
of these computers recovered from a crashed 9M727 during fieldwork in April. This computer
is roughly the size of an A4 sheet of paper and sits inside a heat shield able to withstand the
pressure as the missile accelerates and the heat that engulfs the system. The computer must
be remarkably robust, its components able to continue to function even as the structure
around it is warped by temperature changes. This requires highly specialised materials and
components. Of the seven socket attachment points allowing data to be moved through the
heat shield, one is of Soviet-era design and manufactured in Russia. The remaining six are all
products of US companies. The rails connecting the circuit boards to the computer housing,
which must maintain the alignment of the components under immense forces, are similarly of
US manufacture. The circuit boards themselves are sourced from the US.53

The FSB was managing large-scale penetrations
of the Ukrainian government prior to the invasion. Before the conflict, Ukraine’s domestic
counterintelligence agency, the SBU, was constrained in what it could do to counter these activities,
neither wanting to fracture Ukrainian politics by targeting political parties, nor being confident
that it could ensure prosecution through a compromised courts system. As soon as Russian forces
crossed the border and martial law was declared, things became simpler. In a series of raids the SBU
rapidly closed down the most dangerous elements of Russia’s networks on Ukrainian soil. Many
of Russia’s potential collaborators were left free, since the poor performance of Russian arms saw
their enthusiasm to cooperate with the losing side severely curtailed. Many took their money and
severed communications with their erstwhile handlers. The blame game between the FSB and the
Russian military has been intense.72

Huh, sounds familiar....

Finally, the Russian decision to double down is a high-stakes gamble. If Russia mobilises and
eventually overcomes Ukrainian resistance then NATO will face an aggressive, isolated and
militarised state. If Russia loses then President Putin has now begun radicalising the population
in the pursuit of policies that he will struggle to deliver. Failure to defeat the Ukrainian state after
relentlessly comparing it to the Nazi regime may have serious consequences for Putin and those
around him. To frame a conflict as existential and to lose must necessarily call the suitability of a
leader into question among Russia’s political elites. NATO states therefore need to consider how to
manage escalation pathways that follow if Russia is not only defeated in Donbas but finds its newly
mobilised and poorly trained troops, with few remaining stocks of precision munitions, unable to
deliver a victory in the summer. The death of Putin’s political project is plausible, but it has already
inflicted immense damage internationally and risks doing considerably more.

[Goose]

Good new article on US intelligence sharing.



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nationa...-rcna26015

As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.



That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

Sounds like the unverified IL-76 shoot down did happen.

It appears that Ukraine did in fact shoot down 2 IL-76 aircraft supporting the airborne invasion. One of them was a troop carrier. The other one may have been as well, although I haven't been able to find a report confirming that. It could have been an intelligence or EW aircraft. At least 3 IL-76 aircraft are reported to have been part of the efforts near Kyiv. It was a bit of a cluster f***. The IL-76s apparently got there on time, but the airport wasn't secure. It was a "hot LZ" and they couldn't/didn't land. Two of them were shot down while apparently trying to figure out what to do, as near as I can determine from the reporting. The aircrew should have been briefed on "Plan B". If Russia was serious, they would have instructed the aircrew that they needed to land even if casualties would be expected and the airplane would be totaled. Flying to the LZ was dangerous. Flying away from the LZ once it is clear to the Ukrainians what is happening is even more dangerous, but you might make it back to Russia. Milling about is suicidal.

I have been wondering if NATO/US has been flying E-3 racetracks in Poland and/or Romania. An E-3 can see the air battle across most of Ukraine from inside NATO airspace. Two of them would be better and would really cover the country. That, plus satellites should give a pretty good picture. I still don't know if we are doing that, but it sounds like we are.

[Goose]

Good new article on US intelligence sharing.



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nationa...-rcna26015

As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News.



That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

Sounds like the unverified IL-76 shoot down did happen.

It appears that Ukraine did in fact shoot down 2 IL-76 aircraft supporting the airborne invasion. One of them was a troop carrier. The other one may have been as well, although I haven't been able to find a report confirming that. It could have been an intelligence or EW aircraft. At least 3 IL-76 aircraft are reported to have been part of the efforts near Kyiv. It was a bit of a cluster f***. The IL-76s apparently got there on time, but the airport wasn't secure. It was a "hot LZ" and they couldn't/didn't land. Two of them were shot down while apparently trying to figure out what to do, as near as I can determine from the reporting. The aircrew should have been briefed on "Plan B". If Russia was serious, they would have instructed the aircrew that they needed to land even if casualties would be expected and the airplane would be totaled. Flying to the LZ was dangerous. Flying away from the LZ once it is clear to the Ukrainians what is happening is even more dangerous, but you might make it back to Russia. Milling about is suicidal.

I have been wondering if NATO/US has been flying E-3 racetracks in Poland and/or Romania. An E-3 can see the air battle across most of Ukraine from inside NATO airspace. Two of them would be better and would really cover the country. That, plus satellites should give a pretty good picture. I still don't know if we are doing that, but it sounds like we are.

[fullmetal]

Russia can't turn out the lights in Ukraine, they're still using Ukrainian cell networks and telecoms in part to communicate, no?  Also wouldn't be surprised to see Russian troops using the grid in Ukraine to save diesel from not having to run generators for electrical needs.

I thought the IL-76 shootdown happened around Hostomel...weren't there photos of the wreckage?  I also read that the VDV were generally overestimated due to their mythos and operationally ineffective.  Hindsight is great.

[fullmetal]

Russia can't turn out the lights in Ukraine, they're still using Ukrainian cell networks and telecoms in part to communicate, no?  Also wouldn't be surprised to see Russian troops using the grid in Ukraine to save diesel from not having to run generators for electrical needs.

I thought the IL-76 shootdown happened around Hostomel...weren't there photos of the wreckage?  I also read that the VDV were generally overestimated due to their mythos and operationally ineffective.  Hindsight is great.

[Goose]

Russia can't turn out the lights in Ukraine, they're still using Ukrainian cell networks and telecoms in part to communicate, no?  Also wouldn't be surprised to see Russian troops using the grid in Ukraine to save diesel from not having to run generators for electrical needs.

I thought the IL-76 shootdown happened around Hostomel...weren't there photos of the wreckage?

That is correct. One of the IL-76s what shot down near Hostomel, which is a suburb of Kiev. The other was shot down near Bila Tserkya, which is about 85km South of Kiev.

I also read that the VDV were generally overestimated due to their mythos and operationally ineffective.  Hindsight is great.

In fairness, the design of this whole operation was insane. The helicopter force that delivered the initial assault troops who were supposed to seize the airport initially was probably too small to begin with. It was certainly too small after it suffered aircraft losses getting to the objective. The force did capture the airport but the airport was still under fire/being contested. The assault force was too small/not motivated enough to clear (under fire) the runways of the obstacles placed there by the Ukrainians. These obstacles were things like buses. They could be moved. The follow-on assault couldn't/didn't land. Pretty much game over.

The force on the ground retreated into the woods to be rescued later by advancing ground forces. In that regards, they were for sure overrated. Contrast that with the German effort at Maleme, Crete in WW II. It was almost an exactly parallel situation. Ended differently. However, it for sure showed what could go wrong in such an operation. The Russians apparently didn't study that operation. Obviously, Russia did not expect serious opposition. You don't design an operation like this where you are going to fly a large number of troops through contested airspace and intend to deposit them on an LZ that has to be secured by air assault just prior to landing unless you are totally committed to fight it out no matter how bad the losses. Obviously, Russia wasn't and the troops weren't either.

[Goose]

Russia can't turn out the lights in Ukraine, they're still using Ukrainian cell networks and telecoms in part to communicate, no?  Also wouldn't be surprised to see Russian troops using the grid in Ukraine to save diesel from not having to run generators for electrical needs.

I thought the IL-76 shootdown happened around Hostomel...weren't there photos of the wreckage?

That is correct. One of the IL-76s what shot down near Hostomel, which is a suburb of Kiev. The other was shot down near Bila Tserkya, which is about 85km South of Kiev.

I also read that the VDV were generally overestimated due to their mythos and operationally ineffective.  Hindsight is great.

In fairness, the design of this whole operation was insane. The helicopter force that delivered the initial assault troops who were supposed to seize the airport initially was probably too small to begin with. It was certainly too small after it suffered aircraft losses getting to the objective. The force did capture the airport but the airport was still under fire/being contested. The assault force was too small/not motivated enough to clear (under fire) the runways of the obstacles placed there by the Ukrainians. These obstacles were things like buses. They could be moved. The follow-on assault couldn't/didn't land. Pretty much game over.

The force on the ground retreated into the woods to be rescued later by advancing ground forces. In that regards, they were for sure overrated. Contrast that with the German effort at Maleme, Crete in WW II. It was almost an exactly parallel situation. Ended differently. However, it for sure showed what could go wrong in such an operation. The Russians apparently didn't study that operation. Obviously, Russia did not expect serious opposition. You don't design an operation like this where you are going to fly a large number of troops through contested airspace and intend to deposit them on an LZ that has to be secured by air assault just prior to landing unless you are totally committed to fight it out no matter how bad the losses. Obviously, Russia wasn't and the troops weren't either.

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1518946528236380161?s=21&t=hVjRRVfc9lyu5dw07P7SNQ[/tweet]

Let’s discourage countries from joining NATO by highlighting how vulnerable they are outside the alliance.

—Vladimir Putin, maybe

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1518946528236380161?s=21&t=hVjRRVfc9lyu5dw07P7SNQ[/tweet]

Let’s discourage countries from joining NATO by highlighting how vulnerable they are outside the alliance.

—Vladimir Putin, maybe

[TrumpCard]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

[TrumpCard]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

[dabigv13]

Some people are doubtful still that any IL-76's were shot down, despite the NBC report I posted earlier.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1519028919860711433?s=20&t=cPCjvP6JuPuRrOkCK939OQ[/tweet]

This is an Economist reporter covering Ukraine in that thread

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1519033793960681473?s=20&t=cPCjvP6JuPuRrOkCK939OQ[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Some people are doubtful still that any IL-76's were shot down, despite the NBC report I posted earlier.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1519028919860711433?s=20&t=cPCjvP6JuPuRrOkCK939OQ[/tweet]

This is an Economist reporter covering Ukraine in that thread

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1519033793960681473?s=20&t=cPCjvP6JuPuRrOkCK939OQ[/tweet]

[cardcrimson]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

Oh Lordy Lord, he's desperate. . ..

[cardcrimson]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html

Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

Oh Lordy Lord, he's desperate. . ..

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html



Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

Oh Lordy Lord, he's desperate. . ..

Maybe. Sadly, it might work. I have no confidence in the current German government to stand up if called upon. Hope I am wrong.

---

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europ...e-defense/

My first reaction was YGTBFKM. This system is an old system using an old radar firing bullets at the target. It is similar to the Soviet ZSU-23 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZSU-23-4). The joke became that the manufacturer of the Zoo 23 should just build the system with the Shrike missile already embedded in the reflector so it could just explode when the radar was turned on. Save everybody time and trouble. They are missile magnets. Then, I had to remember this is to be used against Russia, who is not into radar homing missiles as much as the US was/is. So these units may actually survive in the Ukraine. However, they cover essentially the same altitude-range profile as a Stinger missile does. It's replacement in German service is a similar vehicle that launches Stinger missiles.

Given that Ukraine already has Stinger missiles and given that absorbing a new tracked vehicle into it's army takes precious resources, IMHO send this to Ukraine is a SINGULARLY BAD IDEA. The only redeeming virtue is that these weapons make a very effective (if contrary to treaty) anti-infantry weapon (as does the ZSU-23). Maybe that is the real purpose. Seriously, if Germany wants to send something useful, they can and should do better.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi...59894.html



Interesting play by Russia. If Germany is given the same treatment, what do they do? Do they pay in Rubles? 

AMAZING. I had exactly that clip in mind. Holding yourself hostage. Putin may have decided to do that. Probably won't be as funny though.

Oh Lordy Lord, he's desperate. . ..

Maybe. Sadly, it might work. I have no confidence in the current German government to stand up if called upon. Hope I am wrong.

---

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europ...e-defense/

My first reaction was YGTBFKM. This system is an old system using an old radar firing bullets at the target. It is similar to the Soviet ZSU-23 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZSU-23-4). The joke became that the manufacturer of the Zoo 23 should just build the system with the Shrike missile already embedded in the reflector so it could just explode when the radar was turned on. Save everybody time and trouble. They are missile magnets. Then, I had to remember this is to be used against Russia, who is not into radar homing missiles as much as the US was/is. So these units may actually survive in the Ukraine. However, they cover essentially the same altitude-range profile as a Stinger missile does. It's replacement in German service is a similar vehicle that launches Stinger missiles.

Given that Ukraine already has Stinger missiles and given that absorbing a new tracked vehicle into it's army takes precious resources, IMHO send this to Ukraine is a SINGULARLY BAD IDEA. The only redeeming virtue is that these weapons make a very effective (if contrary to treaty) anti-infantry weapon (as does the ZSU-23). Maybe that is the real purpose. Seriously, if Germany wants to send something useful, they can and should do better.

[newguy]

within the last week, two oligarchs and their families have been found dead......one in Russia, the other in Spain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/2-russia...rts-2022-4
https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-o...st-1700022

and Monday morning, the body of Ukrainian-born Valentin Broeksmit was found on a high school campus in Los Angeles.  he was the adopted son of William Broeksmit, who died under mysterious circumstances in 2014.  
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/...ls-campus/

the first two deaths are sad, but it's truly alarming that Broeksmit's body was found right here in California.  although it hasn't been proven that he was killed, his death is highly suspicious to say the least.  i am deeply concerned about Putin's ability to get away with murder inside our borders.

[newguy]

within the last week, two oligarchs and their families have been found dead......one in Russia, the other in Spain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/2-russia...rts-2022-4
https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-o...st-1700022

and Monday morning, the body of Ukrainian-born Valentin Broeksmit was found on a high school campus in Los Angeles.  he was the adopted son of William Broeksmit, who died under mysterious circumstances in 2014.  
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/...ls-campus/

the first two deaths are sad, but it's truly alarming that Broeksmit's body was found right here in California.  although it hasn't been proven that he was killed, his death is highly suspicious to say the least.  i am deeply concerned about Putin's ability to get away with murder inside our borders.

[OutsiderFan]

As the fighting in Ukraine rages on, it really is time to recognize and admit we are at the end of the beginning of a much wider conflict that is basically Russia against NATO. It seems safe to say China and India are just sitting it out, and that will probably remain the case for a while. They both loathe the idea of having no choice but to pick a side. Hopefully they won't. I don't have enough information and insight to muster an opinion on whether such a time will come or not.

So back to Russia. The thread below is a reminder of what NATO faces, but let me address the bigger picture.  Today I was watching a report from DW on the Russian decision to block oil and gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, then another one about Germany's moves on the topic. One of my takeaways was how pipelines have been built that move oil and gas in Europe bypassing Russian sources.  While watching the report, it occurred to me Russia could very well destroy these pipelines with some kind of sabotage, and it would make all the sense in the world to do it if you are Russia.

It was yet another reminder of how desperate the world should be to redouble its efforts toward renewable/nuclear energy. The economic and environmental disasters that cutting pipelines would create are almost incalculable. Given the atrocities Putin's regime has been good with in Ukraine, I can't imagine he has much concern for any form of life anywhere. We just shouldn't be fighting wars over and be compromised in so many ways by oil and gas dependence for so many reasons.

It seems to me, NATO must be re-thinking its approach from defense to offense vis-a-vis Russia. Because it seems highly unlikely Russia is going to lose in Ukraine without taking liberties with NATO countries. Putin's core belief is NATO will not respond to a Russian attack on a NATO country when war with Russia would be the result. But Russia is going to cause havoc for the west that is going to make our lives very unpleasant unless its government is toppled.  That's what history tells us. That's what logic tells us. That's what the available evidence to date is telling us. 

I think NATO knows this and is arming Ukraine to the extent it is, not to save Ukraine, as much as to degrade Russia's ability to go beyond Ukraine. Because if Russia ran through Ukraine, it would have been able to take Moldova easily, been emboldened, and then gone after Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania. Putin would count on no public support in NATO countries to go to war with Russia over piddly Baltic states, even if in NATO, and effectively would have broken the alliance. 

The bad news for Putin is after the world has seen what Russia has done in Ukraine, it is now seen as a great villain that must be stopped, so the public will support NATO war with Russia if Russia pushes that envelope. If the guy in this thread represents Russian thinking, that envelope will be pushed. A lot of projection and all propaganda here, but it provides perspective on what we are up against.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1519222930273619968[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

As the fighting in Ukraine rages on, it really is time to recognize and admit we are at the end of the beginning of a much wider conflict that is basically Russia against NATO. It seems safe to say China and India are just sitting it out, and that will probably remain the case for a while. They both loathe the idea of having no choice but to pick a side. Hopefully they won't. I don't have enough information and insight to muster an opinion on whether such a time will come or not.

So back to Russia. The thread below is a reminder of what NATO faces, but let me address the bigger picture.  Today I was watching a report from DW on the Russian decision to block oil and gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, then another one about Germany's moves on the topic. One of my takeaways was how pipelines have been built that move oil and gas in Europe bypassing Russian sources.  While watching the report, it occurred to me Russia could very well destroy these pipelines with some kind of sabotage, and it would make all the sense in the world to do it if you are Russia.

It was yet another reminder of how desperate the world should be to redouble its efforts toward renewable/nuclear energy. The economic and environmental disasters that cutting pipelines would create are almost incalculable. Given the atrocities Putin's regime has been good with in Ukraine, I can't imagine he has much concern for any form of life anywhere. We just shouldn't be fighting wars over and be compromised in so many ways by oil and gas dependence for so many reasons.

It seems to me, NATO must be re-thinking its approach from defense to offense vis-a-vis Russia. Because it seems highly unlikely Russia is going to lose in Ukraine without taking liberties with NATO countries. Putin's core belief is NATO will not respond to a Russian attack on a NATO country when war with Russia would be the result. But Russia is going to cause havoc for the west that is going to make our lives very unpleasant unless its government is toppled.  That's what history tells us. That's what logic tells us. That's what the available evidence to date is telling us. 

I think NATO knows this and is arming Ukraine to the extent it is, not to save Ukraine, as much as to degrade Russia's ability to go beyond Ukraine. Because if Russia ran through Ukraine, it would have been able to take Moldova easily, been emboldened, and then gone after Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania. Putin would count on no public support in NATO countries to go to war with Russia over piddly Baltic states, even if in NATO, and effectively would have broken the alliance. 

The bad news for Putin is after the world has seen what Russia has done in Ukraine, it is now seen as a great villain that must be stopped, so the public will support NATO war with Russia if Russia pushes that envelope. If the guy in this thread represents Russian thinking, that envelope will be pushed. A lot of projection and all propaganda here, but it provides perspective on what we are up against.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1519222930273619968[/tweet]

[BostonCard]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/li...-2022.html

No Russian IL-76’s among the list of verified down planes my Oryx. That doesn’t mean it didn’t happen; they only include verified losses, but it fits with Joshi’s point that there has been no evidence of a downed IL-76.

Maybe it was shot and either crashed or landed back in Bellorus.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/li...-2022.html

No Russian IL-76’s among the list of verified down planes my Oryx. That doesn’t mean it didn’t happen; they only include verified losses, but it fits with Joshi’s point that there has been no evidence of a downed IL-76.

Maybe it was shot and either crashed or landed back in Bellorus.

BC

[Goose]

Unfortunately it appears Russia is fighting much better in the Donbas than they did previously, probably because they have a better understanding of the Ukrainian "enemy" and because they understand their own limitations. Russia is not attempting broad armored thrusts that cover tens of miles a day. They are just banging on the front lines and forcing the Ukrainians back. Probably if they can create a major breach they would become more aggressive, but so far that hasn't happened.

This lower pace of operations and the proximity to Russia itself has allowed the Russian logistics to hold up adequately. Russia is moving anti-aircraft BTGs forward into the newly occupied areas. The Russians appear to be intending a "ground and pound" offensive for as long as it takes. The Ukrainians are inflicting losses on the Russians but are also suffering losses themselves. We don't actually know much about that balance. Right now, it would appear Ukraine is slowly being expelled from the Donbas. How long Russia and Ukraine can each keep this up is unknown.

Ukraine needs to integrate the new weapons they are receiving to allow them to chew up the Russian rear areas and support troops. They need the ability to project power. Whether they will get enough of this soon enough is unknowable. It is difficult to absorb new weapons in the middle of a war, but it has been done before. Russia in theory has a more powerful armored offensive striking force than Ukraine, but so far they really aren't using it. This gives Ukraine more time to strengthen it's forces. Hopefully Russia will run out of troops or Ukraine will develop the ability to chew them up. It could take a while either way. This May 9th stuff right now looks way out of possibility, unless there is a meltdown someplace soon.

[Goose]

Unfortunately it appears Russia is fighting much better in the Donbas than they did previously, probably because they have a better understanding of the Ukrainian "enemy" and because they understand their own limitations. Russia is not attempting broad armored thrusts that cover tens of miles a day. They are just banging on the front lines and forcing the Ukrainians back. Probably if they can create a major breach they would become more aggressive, but so far that hasn't happened.

This lower pace of operations and the proximity to Russia itself has allowed the Russian logistics to hold up adequately. Russia is moving anti-aircraft BTGs forward into the newly occupied areas. The Russians appear to be intending a "ground and pound" offensive for as long as it takes. The Ukrainians are inflicting losses on the Russians but are also suffering losses themselves. We don't actually know much about that balance. Right now, it would appear Ukraine is slowly being expelled from the Donbas. How long Russia and Ukraine can each keep this up is unknown.

Ukraine needs to integrate the new weapons they are receiving to allow them to chew up the Russian rear areas and support troops. They need the ability to project power. Whether they will get enough of this soon enough is unknowable. It is difficult to absorb new weapons in the middle of a war, but it has been done before. Russia in theory has a more powerful armored offensive striking force than Ukraine, but so far they really aren't using it. This gives Ukraine more time to strengthen it's forces. Hopefully Russia will run out of troops or Ukraine will develop the ability to chew them up. It could take a while either way. This May 9th stuff right now looks way out of possibility, unless there is a meltdown someplace soon.

[dabigv13]

Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

[dabigv13]

Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

[Goose]

---

Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Maybe so, but they are also trading lives for time. It is a hard position to be in. Hopefully the exchange ratio is enough in their favor that Russia runs out of bodies before Ukraine does. We don't have much visibility into that. Some of the reports are encouraging, but obviously Ukraine is mostly reporting success and minimizing failures, as they should.

Russia might also be utilizing a Verdun-like strategy where they are relying on their superiority in artillery and tactical air to grind up the Ukrainian forces. Politically, Ukraine can't retreat unilaterally. This fact fixes their forces in place. The Russian's only need to make credible thrusts to keep the Ukrainians in place. Pound them with indirect fire, cause casualties. They can't do the same because they lack the weapons to do so. Russia just has to be careful NOT to attack too much and create their own casualties. This is an attrition battle Russia might reasonably believe they can win. It is not clear that the artillery being sent to Ukraine is sufficient to avoid this situation, as the US (and therefore NATO) largely relies on tac air to do the grinding.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Actually, Russia's objective in this case (IMHO) is to pound away until they breach the line someplace and then to pour massive armor forces through the breach. The problem for them is they don't seem to be able to move rapidly enough to take advantage of such a breach. That said, we haven't seen them in that position yet. The Ukrainians have always been able to seal off any potential holes. IMHO it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Russia can pull this off. It is also not clear that they can, or that they will get the chance.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

That "anyone" will be Ukraine, because under those conditions they would keep fighting. What happens then is Pandora's box. Let's hope Putin is ousted before it comes to that.

[Goose]

---

Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Maybe so, but they are also trading lives for time. It is a hard position to be in. Hopefully the exchange ratio is enough in their favor that Russia runs out of bodies before Ukraine does. We don't have much visibility into that. Some of the reports are encouraging, but obviously Ukraine is mostly reporting success and minimizing failures, as they should.

Russia might also be utilizing a Verdun-like strategy where they are relying on their superiority in artillery and tactical air to grind up the Ukrainian forces. Politically, Ukraine can't retreat unilaterally. This fact fixes their forces in place. The Russian's only need to make credible thrusts to keep the Ukrainians in place. Pound them with indirect fire, cause casualties. They can't do the same because they lack the weapons to do so. Russia just has to be careful NOT to attack too much and create their own casualties. This is an attrition battle Russia might reasonably believe they can win. It is not clear that the artillery being sent to Ukraine is sufficient to avoid this situation, as the US (and therefore NATO) largely relies on tac air to do the grinding.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Actually, Russia's objective in this case (IMHO) is to pound away until they breach the line someplace and then to pour massive armor forces through the breach. The problem for them is they don't seem to be able to move rapidly enough to take advantage of such a breach. That said, we haven't seen them in that position yet. The Ukrainians have always been able to seal off any potential holes. IMHO it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Russia can pull this off. It is also not clear that they can, or that they will get the chance.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

That "anyone" will be Ukraine, because under those conditions they would keep fighting. What happens then is Pandora's box. Let's hope Putin is ousted before it comes to that.