08-09-2022, 01:39 PM
Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine
08-09-2022, 01:48 PM
(08-09-2022, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In any event, it looks like Russians illegally occupying Crimea might be scurrying back across the border to avoid what is coming to them.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1557020209650737153[/tweet]
If that line of civilian cars were Ukrainians, Russia would be bombing the highway.
(08-09-2022, 11:05 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: In any event, it looks like Russians illegally occupying Crimea might be scurrying back across the border to avoid what is coming to them.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1557020209650737153[/tweet]
If that line of civilian cars were Ukrainians, Russia would be bombing the highway.
(08-09-2022, 01:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(08-09-2022, 12:45 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: "The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."
Thanks for the laugh. . . .
Please explain how to win a nuclear war.
What If North Korea Launched a Nuclear Bomb (Minute by Minute) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFYd2b3oPmo
Audaces fortuna iuvat
(08-09-2022, 01:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(08-09-2022, 12:45 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: "The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."
Thanks for the laugh. . . .
Please explain how to win a nuclear war.
What If North Korea Launched a Nuclear Bomb (Minute by Minute) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFYd2b3oPmo
Audaces fortuna iuvat
08-09-2022, 04:09 PM
Russian air operations out of Saki must be non-existent right now -- I hope Ukraine can take advantage of a potential pause in Russian air cover to catch them reeling. It is a most grimly heartwarming piece of news.
08-09-2022, 05:28 PM
This thread continues to be a fabulous source of information, with true experts weighing in with real experience in foreign policy, military equipment, military strategy, and the like. Posters like Goose and dabigv13 have been incredible, as have many others, sharing their knowledge, expertise and opinions about the war. 5 months and 70 pages of great commentary; truly an example of what makes Stanford special.
Then there's a post about the nuclear lessons the world learned from a mediocre 1980s movie. I laughed almost as hard as I did in 1980 when Carter inferred that he was setting policy priorities (nuclear arms and proliferation) after a discussion with his 13 year old daughter. . . .
Sincerely, thanks to those who post with real experience and expertise. Greatly appreciated!
Then there's a post about the nuclear lessons the world learned from a mediocre 1980s movie. I laughed almost as hard as I did in 1980 when Carter inferred that he was setting policy priorities (nuclear arms and proliferation) after a discussion with his 13 year old daughter. . . .
Sincerely, thanks to those who post with real experience and expertise. Greatly appreciated!
(08-09-2022, 01:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(08-09-2022, 12:45 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: "The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."
Thanks for the laugh. . . .
Please explain how to win a nuclear war.
Free Phogge!!!! And no, crimson doesn't refer to the Tide.
This thread continues to be a fabulous source of information, with true experts weighing in with real experience in foreign policy, military equipment, military strategy, and the like. Posters like Goose and dabigv13 have been incredible, as have many others, sharing their knowledge, expertise and opinions about the war. 5 months and 70 pages of great commentary; truly an example of what makes Stanford special.
Then there's a post about the nuclear lessons the world learned from a mediocre 1980s movie. I laughed almost as hard as I did in 1980 when Carter inferred that he was setting policy priorities (nuclear arms and proliferation) after a discussion with his 13 year old daughter. . . .
Sincerely, thanks to those who post with real experience and expertise. Greatly appreciated!
Then there's a post about the nuclear lessons the world learned from a mediocre 1980s movie. I laughed almost as hard as I did in 1980 when Carter inferred that he was setting policy priorities (nuclear arms and proliferation) after a discussion with his 13 year old daughter. . . .
Sincerely, thanks to those who post with real experience and expertise. Greatly appreciated!
(08-09-2022, 01:39 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(08-09-2022, 12:45 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: "The movie War Games taught everyone about the folly of starting armed nuclear conflict."
Thanks for the laugh. . . .
Please explain how to win a nuclear war.
Free Phogge!!!! And no, crimson doesn't refer to the Tide.
08-09-2022, 05:45 PM
(08-09-2022, 01:27 PM)Goose Wrote:(08-09-2022, 10:36 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: If you scroll up you will see undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl stated the platform was Ukrainian Aircraft. So seems like they must have jury rigged some sort of setup for this.It is still a bit unclear (no surprise) what was done. The "normal" way of air launching a HARM requires interfaces to the RWR on the host aircraft. The pilot/GIB designates the target on the RWR and the data from the RWR is transferred to the HARM. There is also a pulse coincidence gate that makes sure the target the HARM "sees" is exactly the same one the RWR sees. This is not a trivial interface. It was found necessary to allow the user to to acquire the target using the HARM alone (when the RWR for some reason would not, see ALR-67 ECP-510). This is also not a trivial interface. However, this feature can allow launching the HARM almost autonomously without much input from the host platform.
More on the AGM HARM here-
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-...to-ukraine
That may make a kludge possible, but even that wouldn't be easy. It is not just a matter of data bus compatibility. It is also a matter of launch rail compatibility and safety of flight considerations. The AGM-88 is 13.5 feet long and heavy. It can mess up the aircraft aerodynamics in nasty ways. Granted, there is a war on, but it seems like a big effort for Ukraine to undertake. The AGM-88 has not been supplied to any country to operate from Soviet era aircraft. While some Soviet era aircraft have been updated by NATO countries with new avionics, none AFAIK were upgraded to use NATO weapons.
As the article you linked to points out, the announcement said we provided missiles compatible with Ukrainian aircraft. We had some ex-Soviet missiles that fit that bill. The announcement didn't say we provided AGM-88s that are compatible with Ukrainian aircraft, so there is still a bit of a mystery what is happening.
If Ukraine can actually launch AGM-88 from aircraft, that is a very important capability. To take back Kherson, it is probably going to require tactical air support. Ukraine has been doing some of this anyway, but it would be lots easier if Russian radars had to shut down for fear of destruction. If Ukraine has the C model AGM-88, they can also take out communications jammers. Hopefully we will get more definite info on this as their success unfolds!
I am certainly no expert, but we've seen plenty of videos of Russian pilots flying with various tablets or GPS systems attached to the cockpit. We've seen both sides use munitions in unusual ways, such as the strange helicopter (small) unguided missile barrage.
I think it's plausible that Ukraine might be firing off HARM missiles without coordinates but in a seeker mode looking for radar sites. Maybe suboptimal but still effective at suppression. Or they could have somehow got some tablet running a NATO software and jury rigged it to put in coordinates.
Ukraine has indigenously upgraded at least one MIG 29 to have guided ground attack capability with some limited SEAD ability before the war. This example at least could use some of the Soviet ARM missiles as well, should they have been provided. Perhaps some Ukrainian engineers working with NATO advisors over the past few months have brought about this capability in a small number of the Ukrainian ground attack planes.
We saw wreckage of an AGM88, and I think the most parsimonious explanation is that's what we provided and Ukraine is using their planes to fire them. Now which type(s) is what I wonder.
(08-09-2022, 01:27 PM)Goose Wrote:(08-09-2022, 10:36 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: If you scroll up you will see undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl stated the platform was Ukrainian Aircraft. So seems like they must have jury rigged some sort of setup for this.It is still a bit unclear (no surprise) what was done. The "normal" way of air launching a HARM requires interfaces to the RWR on the host aircraft. The pilot/GIB designates the target on the RWR and the data from the RWR is transferred to the HARM. There is also a pulse coincidence gate that makes sure the target the HARM "sees" is exactly the same one the RWR sees. This is not a trivial interface. It was found necessary to allow the user to to acquire the target using the HARM alone (when the RWR for some reason would not, see ALR-67 ECP-510). This is also not a trivial interface. However, this feature can allow launching the HARM almost autonomously without much input from the host platform.
More on the AGM HARM here-
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-...to-ukraine
That may make a kludge possible, but even that wouldn't be easy. It is not just a matter of data bus compatibility. It is also a matter of launch rail compatibility and safety of flight considerations. The AGM-88 is 13.5 feet long and heavy. It can mess up the aircraft aerodynamics in nasty ways. Granted, there is a war on, but it seems like a big effort for Ukraine to undertake. The AGM-88 has not been supplied to any country to operate from Soviet era aircraft. While some Soviet era aircraft have been updated by NATO countries with new avionics, none AFAIK were upgraded to use NATO weapons.
As the article you linked to points out, the announcement said we provided missiles compatible with Ukrainian aircraft. We had some ex-Soviet missiles that fit that bill. The announcement didn't say we provided AGM-88s that are compatible with Ukrainian aircraft, so there is still a bit of a mystery what is happening.
If Ukraine can actually launch AGM-88 from aircraft, that is a very important capability. To take back Kherson, it is probably going to require tactical air support. Ukraine has been doing some of this anyway, but it would be lots easier if Russian radars had to shut down for fear of destruction. If Ukraine has the C model AGM-88, they can also take out communications jammers. Hopefully we will get more definite info on this as their success unfolds!
I am certainly no expert, but we've seen plenty of videos of Russian pilots flying with various tablets or GPS systems attached to the cockpit. We've seen both sides use munitions in unusual ways, such as the strange helicopter (small) unguided missile barrage.
I think it's plausible that Ukraine might be firing off HARM missiles without coordinates but in a seeker mode looking for radar sites. Maybe suboptimal but still effective at suppression. Or they could have somehow got some tablet running a NATO software and jury rigged it to put in coordinates.
Ukraine has indigenously upgraded at least one MIG 29 to have guided ground attack capability with some limited SEAD ability before the war. This example at least could use some of the Soviet ARM missiles as well, should they have been provided. Perhaps some Ukrainian engineers working with NATO advisors over the past few months have brought about this capability in a small number of the Ukrainian ground attack planes.
We saw wreckage of an AGM88, and I think the most parsimonious explanation is that's what we provided and Ukraine is using their planes to fire them. Now which type(s) is what I wonder.
08-09-2022, 06:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2022, 06:08 PM by BostonCard.)
Good thread on how the Ukrainians likely pulled it off…
[tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
One other thought; the Ukrainians have been very good tactically at maximizing the effect of their relatively few smart weapons, whether it was using a drone to distract the Moskva’s radar from an impending missile attack, or flooding the zone with “dumb” rockets to distract while HIMARS rockets hit their targets, I wonder if the Ukrainians launched some rockets to force the Russians to turn on their radar tracking, which was subsequently taken out by the AGM-88D HaRMs. Or maybe the Russians were just dumb and careless with their kit.
BC
Or maybe the Ukrainian Air Force is flying F-16s (I think that’s what’s in this picture…)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1556289056639619072?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
BC
[tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
One other thought; the Ukrainians have been very good tactically at maximizing the effect of their relatively few smart weapons, whether it was using a drone to distract the Moskva’s radar from an impending missile attack, or flooding the zone with “dumb” rockets to distract while HIMARS rockets hit their targets, I wonder if the Ukrainians launched some rockets to force the Russians to turn on their radar tracking, which was subsequently taken out by the AGM-88D HaRMs. Or maybe the Russians were just dumb and careless with their kit.
BC
Or maybe the Ukrainian Air Force is flying F-16s (I think that’s what’s in this picture…)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1556289056639619072?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
BC
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2022, 06:08 PM by BostonCard.)
Good thread on how the Ukrainians likely pulled it off…
[tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
One other thought; the Ukrainians have been very good tactically at maximizing the effect of their relatively few smart weapons, whether it was using a drone to distract the Moskva’s radar from an impending missile attack, or flooding the zone with “dumb” rockets to distract while HIMARS rockets hit their targets, I wonder if the Ukrainians launched some rockets to force the Russians to turn on their radar tracking, which was subsequently taken out by the AGM-88D HaRMs. Or maybe the Russians were just dumb and careless with their kit.
BC
Or maybe the Ukrainian Air Force is flying F-16s (I think that’s what’s in this picture…)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1556289056639619072?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
BC
[tweet]https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556751670402596865?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
One other thought; the Ukrainians have been very good tactically at maximizing the effect of their relatively few smart weapons, whether it was using a drone to distract the Moskva’s radar from an impending missile attack, or flooding the zone with “dumb” rockets to distract while HIMARS rockets hit their targets, I wonder if the Ukrainians launched some rockets to force the Russians to turn on their radar tracking, which was subsequently taken out by the AGM-88D HaRMs. Or maybe the Russians were just dumb and careless with their kit.
BC
Or maybe the Ukrainian Air Force is flying F-16s (I think that’s what’s in this picture…)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1556289056639619072?s=21&t=bK6evmeLFEcxm9ky41ICJw[/tweet]
BC
(08-09-2022, 06:03 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Good thread on how the Ukrainians likely pulled it off…Well, he describes the same three modes I did. However, he leaves out the mass of the elephant when he says "just launch the HARM". Putting aside the fact you need the correct rail and the issues with what effects carrying and launching the missile may have on the aircraft, to launch it at all you need a CP-1001B/C HARM Command Launch Computer (CLC) connected to the missile. As far as I know there is no other way. There are no wires in the MIGs to do that. It isn't just a contact closure. The F-16C has an older system that does the same things.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556...m9ky41ICJw
You can ground launch (and also program coordinates) on a harm using a CP-1001 that is not part of the airframe if you have the correct cables and display. You can indeed pre-program the AGM-88 D as an air to surface missile that will attack a given point on the ground. However, one should also be aware that the initial use of the GPS (and previous INS) systems was to AVOID certain targets, not to hit them. The software mod to use it the other way was a later addition and is not really recommended. If you have a good GPS coordinate fix on the target, why waste an anti-radiation missile on it? Use a cheaper air to surface weapon.
(08-09-2022, 06:03 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Good thread on how the Ukrainians likely pulled it off…Well, he describes the same three modes I did. However, he leaves out the mass of the elephant when he says "just launch the HARM". Putting aside the fact you need the correct rail and the issues with what effects carrying and launching the missile may have on the aircraft, to launch it at all you need a CP-1001B/C HARM Command Launch Computer (CLC) connected to the missile. As far as I know there is no other way. There are no wires in the MIGs to do that. It isn't just a contact closure. The F-16C has an older system that does the same things.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1556...m9ky41ICJw
You can ground launch (and also program coordinates) on a harm using a CP-1001 that is not part of the airframe if you have the correct cables and display. You can indeed pre-program the AGM-88 D as an air to surface missile that will attack a given point on the ground. However, one should also be aware that the initial use of the GPS (and previous INS) systems was to AVOID certain targets, not to hit them. The software mod to use it the other way was a later addition and is not really recommended. If you have a good GPS coordinate fix on the target, why waste an anti-radiation missile on it? Use a cheaper air to surface weapon.
08-09-2022, 09:37 PM
Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
08-10-2022, 06:31 AM
Saw this posted somewhere on the internet...
Something happen in Ukraine that was a game changer, but we didn't know what type of game changer because we don't have all the information yet. I was still waiting for more information and then today's events happened, so my husband told me to tell you what I do know.
The day before at the bridge at the dam in Nova Kakhovka there is a picture that had a new weapon number on it. The weapon tech guys claim it was this AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, but that was impossible because this missile could only be shot from an airplane at a certain speed. Ukraine did not have anything in the Airforce that could do it.
People were going back and forth on it, saying it was the last drone we sent that launched it and others were saying "no way!" Others were saying it was photo shopped and still others were saying that Ukraine found a way to launch it from a missile launch.
Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country. NATO or the US upgraded these MiGs with the next package to fire these anti-radar missiles from United States and NATO and now this changes everything because this means that Ukraine could potentially control the air space over the country. With this air strike deep in Crimea they destroyed all the Russian Naval missiles at the Saki Air Base, plus a few buildings near the ammo depots. A friend told me that Ukraine is waiting for the tourists and the Russian dependents to leave Crimea and then the war will move south, and they plan to take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate all Russian forces. The bridge over the locks at the Nova Kakhovka dam was damage by that missile strike and that means for the Russians it is like the song Hotel California or Hotel Kherson "you can check out anytime, but you can't leave!" They are caught in a trap!
Just a reminder to the world Crimea is still a part of Ukraine and not Russia, therefore the US sees these missiles being use in Ukraine. Only Russia sees this as escalation.
Something happen in Ukraine that was a game changer, but we didn't know what type of game changer because we don't have all the information yet. I was still waiting for more information and then today's events happened, so my husband told me to tell you what I do know.
The day before at the bridge at the dam in Nova Kakhovka there is a picture that had a new weapon number on it. The weapon tech guys claim it was this AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, but that was impossible because this missile could only be shot from an airplane at a certain speed. Ukraine did not have anything in the Airforce that could do it.
People were going back and forth on it, saying it was the last drone we sent that launched it and others were saying "no way!" Others were saying it was photo shopped and still others were saying that Ukraine found a way to launch it from a missile launch.
Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country. NATO or the US upgraded these MiGs with the next package to fire these anti-radar missiles from United States and NATO and now this changes everything because this means that Ukraine could potentially control the air space over the country. With this air strike deep in Crimea they destroyed all the Russian Naval missiles at the Saki Air Base, plus a few buildings near the ammo depots. A friend told me that Ukraine is waiting for the tourists and the Russian dependents to leave Crimea and then the war will move south, and they plan to take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate all Russian forces. The bridge over the locks at the Nova Kakhovka dam was damage by that missile strike and that means for the Russians it is like the song Hotel California or Hotel Kherson "you can check out anytime, but you can't leave!" They are caught in a trap!
Just a reminder to the world Crimea is still a part of Ukraine and not Russia, therefore the US sees these missiles being use in Ukraine. Only Russia sees this as escalation.
Saw this posted somewhere on the internet...
Something happen in Ukraine that was a game changer, but we didn't know what type of game changer because we don't have all the information yet. I was still waiting for more information and then today's events happened, so my husband told me to tell you what I do know.
The day before at the bridge at the dam in Nova Kakhovka there is a picture that had a new weapon number on it. The weapon tech guys claim it was this AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, but that was impossible because this missile could only be shot from an airplane at a certain speed. Ukraine did not have anything in the Airforce that could do it.
People were going back and forth on it, saying it was the last drone we sent that launched it and others were saying "no way!" Others were saying it was photo shopped and still others were saying that Ukraine found a way to launch it from a missile launch.
Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country. NATO or the US upgraded these MiGs with the next package to fire these anti-radar missiles from United States and NATO and now this changes everything because this means that Ukraine could potentially control the air space over the country. With this air strike deep in Crimea they destroyed all the Russian Naval missiles at the Saki Air Base, plus a few buildings near the ammo depots. A friend told me that Ukraine is waiting for the tourists and the Russian dependents to leave Crimea and then the war will move south, and they plan to take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate all Russian forces. The bridge over the locks at the Nova Kakhovka dam was damage by that missile strike and that means for the Russians it is like the song Hotel California or Hotel Kherson "you can check out anytime, but you can't leave!" They are caught in a trap!
Just a reminder to the world Crimea is still a part of Ukraine and not Russia, therefore the US sees these missiles being use in Ukraine. Only Russia sees this as escalation.
Something happen in Ukraine that was a game changer, but we didn't know what type of game changer because we don't have all the information yet. I was still waiting for more information and then today's events happened, so my husband told me to tell you what I do know.
The day before at the bridge at the dam in Nova Kakhovka there is a picture that had a new weapon number on it. The weapon tech guys claim it was this AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, but that was impossible because this missile could only be shot from an airplane at a certain speed. Ukraine did not have anything in the Airforce that could do it.
People were going back and forth on it, saying it was the last drone we sent that launched it and others were saying "no way!" Others were saying it was photo shopped and still others were saying that Ukraine found a way to launch it from a missile launch.
Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country. NATO or the US upgraded these MiGs with the next package to fire these anti-radar missiles from United States and NATO and now this changes everything because this means that Ukraine could potentially control the air space over the country. With this air strike deep in Crimea they destroyed all the Russian Naval missiles at the Saki Air Base, plus a few buildings near the ammo depots. A friend told me that Ukraine is waiting for the tourists and the Russian dependents to leave Crimea and then the war will move south, and they plan to take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate all Russian forces. The bridge over the locks at the Nova Kakhovka dam was damage by that missile strike and that means for the Russians it is like the song Hotel California or Hotel Kherson "you can check out anytime, but you can't leave!" They are caught in a trap!
Just a reminder to the world Crimea is still a part of Ukraine and not Russia, therefore the US sees these missiles being use in Ukraine. Only Russia sees this as escalation.
(08-09-2022, 09:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?It probably isn't a feint. Recapturing the Kherson area and eventually the entire Oblast is a major "must do" for Ukraine. However, the fact it is forcing the Russians to react is all by itself a good thing. It gives them a Hobson's choice and attacks their weakness in troop strength. Either way, it is strategically good for Ukraine. Obviously if the offensive succeeds, that is best. If it doesn't fully succeed but forces the Russians to expose the Donbas it is still a strategic success.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
Kherson has the advantage that the GLOCs are not as good and plentiful as in the Donbas. The population is also "friendlier" and cutting off the GLOC down the coast and the water supply to Crimea is a big strategic threat. It also completely cuts the GLOC of the Russian troops trying to advance towards Odessa. They would be "surrounded" with their backs to the Black Sea. Sounds worse than it is since Russia controls the Black sea, but still not good. Russia would be hard put to ignore it.
Giving up "just" the city of Kherson would be bad but not fatal. Having Ukraine in strength on the south bank would be a much bigger problem. For a while it looked to me like Russia wasn't going to react but it was just the slow nervous system it appears. They did react. If Ukraine now continues to move south east successfully, Russia is in big trouble.
One thing to consider is that the lower Dnieper River will freeze in winter. Shades of Stalingrad. This makes the bridges less important as one can generally drive across the ice. Just don't do so in anything "too heavy". Of course, it also means the Ukrainians can go the other way, and since so far they are the "lighter" force it might help them more than Russia.
(08-09-2022, 09:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?It probably isn't a feint. Recapturing the Kherson area and eventually the entire Oblast is a major "must do" for Ukraine. However, the fact it is forcing the Russians to react is all by itself a good thing. It gives them a Hobson's choice and attacks their weakness in troop strength. Either way, it is strategically good for Ukraine. Obviously if the offensive succeeds, that is best. If it doesn't fully succeed but forces the Russians to expose the Donbas it is still a strategic success.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2
Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.
And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.
BC
Kherson has the advantage that the GLOCs are not as good and plentiful as in the Donbas. The population is also "friendlier" and cutting off the GLOC down the coast and the water supply to Crimea is a big strategic threat. It also completely cuts the GLOC of the Russian troops trying to advance towards Odessa. They would be "surrounded" with their backs to the Black Sea. Sounds worse than it is since Russia controls the Black sea, but still not good. Russia would be hard put to ignore it.
Giving up "just" the city of Kherson would be bad but not fatal. Having Ukraine in strength on the south bank would be a much bigger problem. For a while it looked to me like Russia wasn't going to react but it was just the slow nervous system it appears. They did react. If Ukraine now continues to move south east successfully, Russia is in big trouble.
One thing to consider is that the lower Dnieper River will freeze in winter. Shades of Stalingrad. This makes the bridges less important as one can generally drive across the ice. Just don't do so in anything "too heavy". Of course, it also means the Ukrainians can go the other way, and since so far they are the "lighter" force it might help them more than Russia.
OK, here is how you launch an AGM-88 from a Mig. This ignores any aerodynamic issues but that is a "try it and see" with a war on. Wear your thousand stitch belt.
The AGM-88 is launched from the LAU-118/A Guided Missile Launcher, which is rigidly attached to the aircraft hardpoint. Undoubtedly, the Russian built hardpoints don't have the same hole patterns, but this is a mechanical problem. Some kind of adapter fitting can be built. The LAU-118 remains attached, so the key here is rigidity and strength. It has to support the aerodynamic load of the missile which can be considerable. This is a pretty solvable problem however. Consider it done.
The next real problem, and this is the really hard one, is to install a MIL-STD 1553 cable running from the hardpoint to the cockpit. This is a nightmare. If you are real, real lucky you can follow the existing control wires to the hardpoint, possibly removing them as you go. However, to do this you are undoubtedly going to have to remove riveted (on Russian planes anyway) wing and fuselage panels that are not designed to be "field replaceable". Once inside the fuselage there is no telling (without the drawings) how much stuff you have to remove to access the wiring. Possibly you may chose a different path for the wiring to minimize this effort, but that has its own challenges. Doing this work could easily take a couple of months. There is really no way around this step. You need the 1553 bus to run the LAU-118. This also assumes the Russian wiring at the hardpoint can already supply enough +28V to the LAU-118. If it can't, you are going to have to fish that wire through too.
Good view of LAU-118 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HAR...n_F-4G.jpg
The good news is that the 1553 cable is not very large in diameter and is readily available. So are the connectors. Lets assume you got the 1553 cable into the cockpit. Now things are a bit easier. At this point it would be reasonable to assume you can use a tablet computer and a USB to 1553 converter (yes, you can buy this COTS) with appropriate software to launch the AGM-88. Creating that software could be time consuming however, and you have no way to test it. If you can get such a thing from the US (which is possible, there are maintenance aids like this available) that may be the way to go. Alternatively, assuming this is a 2 seat Mig, the GIB can hold the display in his hands with a CP-1001 under his feet. He can't eject, but his feet will be warm.
Now, if one of the Migs supplied by the formerly Warsaw pact, now NATO, countries had already upgraded their hardpoints to NATO standard, this work would have already been done on some of the Migs given to Ukraine. However, as I keep saying, AFAIK nobody did it. It may be that the engineering work to do this has been done but nobody bought it. If that is the case it is possible that such modification using said engineering data package was done in a NATO country before the plane was transferred to Ukraine. There has been enough time to do that if they started say in April/early May. This has the added advantage of not using Ukrainian assets that are urgently needed to keep their air force flying. This kind of "repair" is already going on, so it wouldn't be escalatory.
This is the scope of the problem, at least IMHO. I am pretty sure you can't duct tape the 1553 bus cable to the underside of the wing and hope it stays there. While you can replace the CP-1001 with an equivalent computer, you will need software with said computer that may or may not exist. Otherwise, you have a 780 lb paperweight.
Sidepoint: Very good info on AGM-88. Somewhat dated, but appropriate for AGM-88C/D. Predates AARGM. http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html
The AGM-88 is launched from the LAU-118/A Guided Missile Launcher, which is rigidly attached to the aircraft hardpoint. Undoubtedly, the Russian built hardpoints don't have the same hole patterns, but this is a mechanical problem. Some kind of adapter fitting can be built. The LAU-118 remains attached, so the key here is rigidity and strength. It has to support the aerodynamic load of the missile which can be considerable. This is a pretty solvable problem however. Consider it done.
The next real problem, and this is the really hard one, is to install a MIL-STD 1553 cable running from the hardpoint to the cockpit. This is a nightmare. If you are real, real lucky you can follow the existing control wires to the hardpoint, possibly removing them as you go. However, to do this you are undoubtedly going to have to remove riveted (on Russian planes anyway) wing and fuselage panels that are not designed to be "field replaceable". Once inside the fuselage there is no telling (without the drawings) how much stuff you have to remove to access the wiring. Possibly you may chose a different path for the wiring to minimize this effort, but that has its own challenges. Doing this work could easily take a couple of months. There is really no way around this step. You need the 1553 bus to run the LAU-118. This also assumes the Russian wiring at the hardpoint can already supply enough +28V to the LAU-118. If it can't, you are going to have to fish that wire through too.
Good view of LAU-118 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HAR...n_F-4G.jpg
The good news is that the 1553 cable is not very large in diameter and is readily available. So are the connectors. Lets assume you got the 1553 cable into the cockpit. Now things are a bit easier. At this point it would be reasonable to assume you can use a tablet computer and a USB to 1553 converter (yes, you can buy this COTS) with appropriate software to launch the AGM-88. Creating that software could be time consuming however, and you have no way to test it. If you can get such a thing from the US (which is possible, there are maintenance aids like this available) that may be the way to go. Alternatively, assuming this is a 2 seat Mig, the GIB can hold the display in his hands with a CP-1001 under his feet. He can't eject, but his feet will be warm.
Now, if one of the Migs supplied by the formerly Warsaw pact, now NATO, countries had already upgraded their hardpoints to NATO standard, this work would have already been done on some of the Migs given to Ukraine. However, as I keep saying, AFAIK nobody did it. It may be that the engineering work to do this has been done but nobody bought it. If that is the case it is possible that such modification using said engineering data package was done in a NATO country before the plane was transferred to Ukraine. There has been enough time to do that if they started say in April/early May. This has the added advantage of not using Ukrainian assets that are urgently needed to keep their air force flying. This kind of "repair" is already going on, so it wouldn't be escalatory.
This is the scope of the problem, at least IMHO. I am pretty sure you can't duct tape the 1553 bus cable to the underside of the wing and hope it stays there. While you can replace the CP-1001 with an equivalent computer, you will need software with said computer that may or may not exist. Otherwise, you have a 780 lb paperweight.
Sidepoint: Very good info on AGM-88. Somewhat dated, but appropriate for AGM-88C/D. Predates AARGM. http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html
OK, here is how you launch an AGM-88 from a Mig. This ignores any aerodynamic issues but that is a "try it and see" with a war on. Wear your thousand stitch belt.
The AGM-88 is launched from the LAU-118/A Guided Missile Launcher, which is rigidly attached to the aircraft hardpoint. Undoubtedly, the Russian built hardpoints don't have the same hole patterns, but this is a mechanical problem. Some kind of adapter fitting can be built. The LAU-118 remains attached, so the key here is rigidity and strength. It has to support the aerodynamic load of the missile which can be considerable. This is a pretty solvable problem however. Consider it done.
The next real problem, and this is the really hard one, is to install a MIL-STD 1553 cable running from the hardpoint to the cockpit. This is a nightmare. If you are real, real lucky you can follow the existing control wires to the hardpoint, possibly removing them as you go. However, to do this you are undoubtedly going to have to remove riveted (on Russian planes anyway) wing and fuselage panels that are not designed to be "field replaceable". Once inside the fuselage there is no telling (without the drawings) how much stuff you have to remove to access the wiring. Possibly you may chose a different path for the wiring to minimize this effort, but that has its own challenges. Doing this work could easily take a couple of months. There is really no way around this step. You need the 1553 bus to run the LAU-118. This also assumes the Russian wiring at the hardpoint can already supply enough +28V to the LAU-118. If it can't, you are going to have to fish that wire through too.
Good view of LAU-118 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HAR...n_F-4G.jpg
The good news is that the 1553 cable is not very large in diameter and is readily available. So are the connectors. Lets assume you got the 1553 cable into the cockpit. Now things are a bit easier. At this point it would be reasonable to assume you can use a tablet computer and a USB to 1553 converter (yes, you can buy this COTS) with appropriate software to launch the AGM-88. Creating that software could be time consuming however, and you have no way to test it. If you can get such a thing from the US (which is possible, there are maintenance aids like this available) that may be the way to go. Alternatively, assuming this is a 2 seat Mig, the GIB can hold the display in his hands with a CP-1001 under his feet. He can't eject, but his feet will be warm.
Now, if one of the Migs supplied by the formerly Warsaw pact, now NATO, countries had already upgraded their hardpoints to NATO standard, this work would have already been done on some of the Migs given to Ukraine. However, as I keep saying, AFAIK nobody did it. It may be that the engineering work to do this has been done but nobody bought it. If that is the case it is possible that such modification using said engineering data package was done in a NATO country before the plane was transferred to Ukraine. There has been enough time to do that if they started say in April/early May. This has the added advantage of not using Ukrainian assets that are urgently needed to keep their air force flying. This kind of "repair" is already going on, so it wouldn't be escalatory.
This is the scope of the problem, at least IMHO. I am pretty sure you can't duct tape the 1553 bus cable to the underside of the wing and hope it stays there. While you can replace the CP-1001 with an equivalent computer, you will need software with said computer that may or may not exist. Otherwise, you have a 780 lb paperweight.
Sidepoint: Very good info on AGM-88. Somewhat dated, but appropriate for AGM-88C/D. Predates AARGM. http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html
The AGM-88 is launched from the LAU-118/A Guided Missile Launcher, which is rigidly attached to the aircraft hardpoint. Undoubtedly, the Russian built hardpoints don't have the same hole patterns, but this is a mechanical problem. Some kind of adapter fitting can be built. The LAU-118 remains attached, so the key here is rigidity and strength. It has to support the aerodynamic load of the missile which can be considerable. This is a pretty solvable problem however. Consider it done.
The next real problem, and this is the really hard one, is to install a MIL-STD 1553 cable running from the hardpoint to the cockpit. This is a nightmare. If you are real, real lucky you can follow the existing control wires to the hardpoint, possibly removing them as you go. However, to do this you are undoubtedly going to have to remove riveted (on Russian planes anyway) wing and fuselage panels that are not designed to be "field replaceable". Once inside the fuselage there is no telling (without the drawings) how much stuff you have to remove to access the wiring. Possibly you may chose a different path for the wiring to minimize this effort, but that has its own challenges. Doing this work could easily take a couple of months. There is really no way around this step. You need the 1553 bus to run the LAU-118. This also assumes the Russian wiring at the hardpoint can already supply enough +28V to the LAU-118. If it can't, you are going to have to fish that wire through too.
Good view of LAU-118 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HAR...n_F-4G.jpg
The good news is that the 1553 cable is not very large in diameter and is readily available. So are the connectors. Lets assume you got the 1553 cable into the cockpit. Now things are a bit easier. At this point it would be reasonable to assume you can use a tablet computer and a USB to 1553 converter (yes, you can buy this COTS) with appropriate software to launch the AGM-88. Creating that software could be time consuming however, and you have no way to test it. If you can get such a thing from the US (which is possible, there are maintenance aids like this available) that may be the way to go. Alternatively, assuming this is a 2 seat Mig, the GIB can hold the display in his hands with a CP-1001 under his feet. He can't eject, but his feet will be warm.
Now, if one of the Migs supplied by the formerly Warsaw pact, now NATO, countries had already upgraded their hardpoints to NATO standard, this work would have already been done on some of the Migs given to Ukraine. However, as I keep saying, AFAIK nobody did it. It may be that the engineering work to do this has been done but nobody bought it. If that is the case it is possible that such modification using said engineering data package was done in a NATO country before the plane was transferred to Ukraine. There has been enough time to do that if they started say in April/early May. This has the added advantage of not using Ukrainian assets that are urgently needed to keep their air force flying. This kind of "repair" is already going on, so it wouldn't be escalatory.
This is the scope of the problem, at least IMHO. I am pretty sure you can't duct tape the 1553 bus cable to the underside of the wing and hope it stays there. While you can replace the CP-1001 with an equivalent computer, you will need software with said computer that may or may not exist. Otherwise, you have a 780 lb paperweight.
Sidepoint: Very good info on AGM-88. Somewhat dated, but appropriate for AGM-88C/D. Predates AARGM. http://www.ausairpower.net/API-AGM-88-HARM.html
08-10-2022, 10:58 AM
(08-10-2022, 06:31 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country.This would be really miraculous for as far as any records I can find Macedonia never had any MiG-29s. In fact, at one point they were negotiating to buy MiG-29s from Ukraine. If you have a link that says otherwise, I would really like to see it. They (may) have returned four SU-25s previously given to them by Ukraine.
(08-10-2022, 06:31 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country.This would be really miraculous for as far as any records I can find Macedonia never had any MiG-29s. In fact, at one point they were negotiating to buy MiG-29s from Ukraine. If you have a link that says otherwise, I would really like to see it. They (may) have returned four SU-25s previously given to them by Ukraine.
I also have not seen anything about North Macedonia transferring Migs, pretty sure you're confused with the 4 Su25s they transferred, mentioned in a post above with an article about them. It does not appear North Macedonia has ever fielded Migs.
I imagine Ukraine would probably prefer a Mig29 or Su27 for the wild weasel role given their speed advantage over the Su24 or Su25, but who knows. Will be curious to learn more.
Thank you Goose for the informative post about what adapting a Ukrainian jet for AGM88 would entail.
I imagine Ukraine would probably prefer a Mig29 or Su27 for the wild weasel role given their speed advantage over the Su24 or Su25, but who knows. Will be curious to learn more.
Thank you Goose for the informative post about what adapting a Ukrainian jet for AGM88 would entail.
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2022, 11:55 AM by dabigv13.)
I also have not seen anything about North Macedonia transferring Migs, pretty sure you're confused with the 4 Su25s they transferred, mentioned in a post above with an article about them. It does not appear North Macedonia has ever fielded Migs.
I imagine Ukraine would probably prefer a Mig29 or Su27 for the wild weasel role given their speed advantage over the Su24 or Su25, but who knows. Will be curious to learn more.
Thank you Goose for the informative post about what adapting a Ukrainian jet for AGM88 would entail.
I imagine Ukraine would probably prefer a Mig29 or Su27 for the wild weasel role given their speed advantage over the Su24 or Su25, but who knows. Will be curious to learn more.
Thank you Goose for the informative post about what adapting a Ukrainian jet for AGM88 would entail.
08-10-2022, 12:28 PM
Special Forces can mean a lot of things, but I doubt it means an air to ground aviation attack.
It's hard to know what to believe in these matters:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-...eblog-body
As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
It's hard to know what to believe in these matters:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-...eblog-body
As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Special Forces can mean a lot of things, but I doubt it means an air to ground aviation attack.
It's hard to know what to believe in these matters:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-...eblog-body
As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
It's hard to know what to believe in these matters:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-...eblog-body
As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2022, 12:44 PM by dabigv13.)
Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
08-10-2022, 01:23 PM
(08-10-2022, 12:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
Pretty incredible, I wonder how many pilots might have been hit as well. Now the question is, what did this. We can see some pretty large craters, I asked someone on Twitter about this and it could be ATACMS, but they didn't rule out ground attack Neptunes. I think we can certainly say this wasn't an accident caused by Russian soldiers, but we already knew that.
(08-10-2022, 12:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
Pretty incredible, I wonder how many pilots might have been hit as well. Now the question is, what did this. We can see some pretty large craters, I asked someone on Twitter about this and it could be ATACMS, but they didn't rule out ground attack Neptunes. I think we can certainly say this wasn't an accident caused by Russian soldiers, but we already knew that.
08-10-2022, 02:17 PM
Apparently, you were the first to post about the MiGs from Macedonia:
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
(08-10-2022, 12:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Free Phogge!!!! And no, crimson doesn't refer to the Tide.
Apparently, you were the first to post about the MiGs from Macedonia:
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
(08-10-2022, 12:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Free Phogge!!!! And no, crimson doesn't refer to the Tide.
08-10-2022, 02:50 PM
(08-10-2022, 01:23 PM)Treefence Wrote:(08-10-2022, 12:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
Pretty incredible, I wonder how many pilots might have been hit as well. Now the question is, what did this. We can see some pretty large craters, I asked someone on Twitter about this and it could be ATACMS, but they didn't rule out ground attack Neptunes. I think we can certainly say this wasn't an accident caused by Russian soldiers, but we already knew that.
I think the craters could be related to impacts from missiles, but could also be from exploding munitions.
Theories I have seen that seem most plausible- AGM88's clearing a path for slower Neptun, which are subsonic but would have a big warhead. Either the threat of AGM88 or some active strikes to open things up for the slow, big Neptuns. But would be tricky to disable SAM radars that deep I would think, presumably many overlapping systems cover this area.
Alternatively, Ukraine has been domestically developing a short range ballistic missile called the Hrim-2. They likely did not have any operational at the start of the war, but perhaps have brought some online, maybe with some American GPS systems or other engineering assistance.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/do...c-missiles
ATACMS seems less likely to me- we've said as recently as a couple weeks ago that we would not provide them. So I think it would be more inflammatory and unlikely.
(08-10-2022, 01:23 PM)Treefence Wrote:(08-10-2022, 12:41 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Satellite photos coming in now from after the strike. Looks like a lot of lost Su24 and Su30s, certainly the heaviest loss of Russian aircraft from a single day/event since WW2. A substantial loss for Russia that will impact their operations in the area and will be hard to replace. The planes lined up on the tarmac are all toast, as are most of the ones that were parked with protecting revetments.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1557441267109400576?s=20&t=Ql4CsJGOkwR6_SCr98CjAw[/tweet]
Pretty incredible, I wonder how many pilots might have been hit as well. Now the question is, what did this. We can see some pretty large craters, I asked someone on Twitter about this and it could be ATACMS, but they didn't rule out ground attack Neptunes. I think we can certainly say this wasn't an accident caused by Russian soldiers, but we already knew that.
I think the craters could be related to impacts from missiles, but could also be from exploding munitions.
Theories I have seen that seem most plausible- AGM88's clearing a path for slower Neptun, which are subsonic but would have a big warhead. Either the threat of AGM88 or some active strikes to open things up for the slow, big Neptuns. But would be tricky to disable SAM radars that deep I would think, presumably many overlapping systems cover this area.
Alternatively, Ukraine has been domestically developing a short range ballistic missile called the Hrim-2. They likely did not have any operational at the start of the war, but perhaps have brought some online, maybe with some American GPS systems or other engineering assistance.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/do...c-missiles
ATACMS seems less likely to me- we've said as recently as a couple weeks ago that we would not provide them. So I think it would be more inflammatory and unlikely.
08-10-2022, 02:56 PM
(08-10-2022, 02:17 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Apparently, you were the first to post about the MiGs from Macedonia:
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
(08-10-2022, 12:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Um, no. I simply copied and pasted what someone else wrote, looking to see if someone could corroborate it. Whoever posted it seemed to have some knowledge of the situation, but I was skeptical so posted here to see if anyone found it legit.
(08-10-2022, 02:17 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Apparently, you were the first to post about the MiGs from Macedonia:
"Then this morning we found out that Ukraine made a strike deep into the Crimea Peninsula and this strike was 200 km from any land point in Ukraine. That is when we went back to the argument and realized that Ukraine received modified MiG-29s from Macedonia and one other ex-Eastern European country."
(08-10-2022, 12:28 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: As for MiGs from Macedonia, I have no idea who posted that or where the idea originated. Was wondering if anyone could corroborate it here. Apparently not.
Um, no. I simply copied and pasted what someone else wrote, looking to see if someone could corroborate it. Whoever posted it seemed to have some knowledge of the situation, but I was skeptical so posted here to see if anyone found it legit.
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