[Maple Leaf]

More Trouble for Russia

With Russia’s Viagra supply cut off, authorities look to generics as backup - The Washington Post

[Maple Leaf]

More Trouble for Russia

With Russia’s Viagra supply cut off, authorities look to generics as backup - The Washington Post

[BostonCard]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/f...te-ukraine

Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

Heavy losses on the battlefield have meant that Russia had lost “around 50% of its pre invasion fleet” of the tank and a related variant, Chipman said, and slow industrial production was “forcing Moscow to rely on its older stored weapons as attrition replacements”.

Wow.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/f...te-ukraine

Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

Heavy losses on the battlefield have meant that Russia had lost “around 50% of its pre invasion fleet” of the tank and a related variant, Chipman said, and slow industrial production was “forcing Moscow to rely on its older stored weapons as attrition replacements”.

Wow.

BC

[gocard14]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/f...te-ukraine

Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

Heavy losses on the battlefield have meant that Russia had lost “around 50% of its pre invasion fleet” of the tank and a related variant, Chipman said, and slow industrial production was “forcing Moscow to rely on its older stored weapons as attrition replacements”.

Wow.

BC

The article is actually an understatement. Russia has been visually confirmed to have 1700 tanks destroyed or captured. Ukraine ministry of defense claims 3290. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. It is a staggering number.

[gocard14]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/f...te-ukraine

Its headline count is that Russia’s number of tanks in its army have reduced by 38% from 2,927 to 1,800, while there have been particularly heavy losses of its workhorse T-72B3, an upgrade first delivered to its army in 2013.

Heavy losses on the battlefield have meant that Russia had lost “around 50% of its pre invasion fleet” of the tank and a related variant, Chipman said, and slow industrial production was “forcing Moscow to rely on its older stored weapons as attrition replacements”.

Wow.

BC

The article is actually an understatement. Russia has been visually confirmed to have 1700 tanks destroyed or captured. Ukraine ministry of defense claims 3290. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. It is a staggering number.

[BostonCard]

“A Ukrainian spring is coming.”

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1626061375666626560?s=61&t=VlPP2x81ud6yAYkjbaDG7w[/tweet]

Hope he’s right.

BC

[BostonCard]

“A Ukrainian spring is coming.”

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1626061375666626560?s=61&t=VlPP2x81ud6yAYkjbaDG7w[/tweet]

Hope he’s right.

BC

[OutsiderFan]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

[OutsiderFan]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

[GK3]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

The tank losses mentioned earlier in this thread are truly staggering.  I also saw a piece that says taking tanks out of reserves may encounter problems such as missing critical parts already stripped to fix broken tanks in action or already sold off to line the pockets of someone in the chain of command.  The sanctions are also probably making manufacturing of new weapons more difficult since they have to import stuff through third parties.
It would certainly seem probable that as the influx of new weapons and other supplies from the West reach Ukraine they will be put to good use.  I really struggle to see how Putin can continue to suffer such severe losses without finding himself in trouble.  How long will the Generals be willing to see their men and equipment ground up in the Ukrainian mixer?  Heavy losses resulted in their departure from an incursion into another country nearly 40 years ago.  If the losses are as bad as these new reports indicate, I just can't see Putin surviving the status quo.  If Ukraine is able to launch a new offensive and take back a fair amount of ground and possibly threaten The Crimea I think the probability that he is gone will approach certainty.  Some bad things can also happen if this comes to pass.  It will be an interesting period.

[GK3]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

The tank losses mentioned earlier in this thread are truly staggering.  I also saw a piece that says taking tanks out of reserves may encounter problems such as missing critical parts already stripped to fix broken tanks in action or already sold off to line the pockets of someone in the chain of command.  The sanctions are also probably making manufacturing of new weapons more difficult since they have to import stuff through third parties.
It would certainly seem probable that as the influx of new weapons and other supplies from the West reach Ukraine they will be put to good use.  I really struggle to see how Putin can continue to suffer such severe losses without finding himself in trouble.  How long will the Generals be willing to see their men and equipment ground up in the Ukrainian mixer?  Heavy losses resulted in their departure from an incursion into another country nearly 40 years ago.  If the losses are as bad as these new reports indicate, I just can't see Putin surviving the status quo.  If Ukraine is able to launch a new offensive and take back a fair amount of ground and possibly threaten The Crimea I think the probability that he is gone will approach certainty.  Some bad things can also happen if this comes to pass.  It will be an interesting period.

[BostonCard]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is no where near from running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

[BostonCard]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is no where near from running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

[Mick]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is nowhere near running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

One thing we might keep in mind is that both Russia and Ukraine have very high proportions of women to men in their countries, among the highest in the world. There are 0.86 men for every woman in both countries -- the USA is 0.97 to 1, about average. The other interesting item is that Russia's population has essentially flatlined...it's basically the same as it was 30 years ago. It was 148.4 million in 1991, and it's 143.4 million today. Not a lot of population for their land mass, and the society itself is so inhospitable that it doesn't encourage reproduction.

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

[Mick]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is nowhere near running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

One thing we might keep in mind is that both Russia and Ukraine have very high proportions of women to men in their countries, among the highest in the world. There are 0.86 men for every woman in both countries -- the USA is 0.97 to 1, about average. The other interesting item is that Russia's population has essentially flatlined...it's basically the same as it was 30 years ago. It was 148.4 million in 1991, and it's 143.4 million today. Not a lot of population for their land mass, and the society itself is so inhospitable that it doesn't encourage reproduction.

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

[TrumpCard]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January

I take a lot of the public statements/leaks with a grain of salt.  There also was a seemingly grim leak a few that the West could not continue to provide anything and everything to Ukraine indefinitely, suggesting that aid would slow in the coming year.  I lack confidence that any of these statements are anything other than PR.  Some of them would seem to be non-strategic PR, but they could be intended for a different audience/purpose than I assumed.

It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

My concern is that tic-tac-toe is easy to play to a draw.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

I could also argue that Russia is taking territory, some of which may end up being strategic in nature.  Russia is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Oskil River near Kupiyansk and is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Zherebets River near Torske.  Regaining those sorts of geographic boundaries can make a difference in allowing Russia to defend against the coming Spring Counteroffensive.  

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

Even though Russia is losing a lot of forces during its offensive, that fact does not imply that Russia's well-planned defensive fortfications will be ineffective if/when Ukraine lauches its Spring Counteroffensive.  Ukraine will need to execute much better to achieve progress on offense than it has needed to do in order to hold ground (or only slowly give ground) when on the defensive.  I also see plenty of concern that the West does not appear to be on track to deliver the promised weapons on Ukraine's timeframe for its offensive.  

I don't mean to be the resident Debbie Downer.  Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive could well be a brobdingnagian success.  I just don't have a high level of confidence one way or the other as to what's going to happen next.

[TrumpCard]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January

I take a lot of the public statements/leaks with a grain of salt.  There also was a seemingly grim leak a few that the West could not continue to provide anything and everything to Ukraine indefinitely, suggesting that aid would slow in the coming year.  I lack confidence that any of these statements are anything other than PR.  Some of them would seem to be non-strategic PR, but they could be intended for a different audience/purpose than I assumed.

It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

My concern is that tic-tac-toe is easy to play to a draw.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

I could also argue that Russia is taking territory, some of which may end up being strategic in nature.  Russia is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Oskil River near Kupiyansk and is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Zherebets River near Torske.  Regaining those sorts of geographic boundaries can make a difference in allowing Russia to defend against the coming Spring Counteroffensive.  

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

Even though Russia is losing a lot of forces during its offensive, that fact does not imply that Russia's well-planned defensive fortfications will be ineffective if/when Ukraine lauches its Spring Counteroffensive.  Ukraine will need to execute much better to achieve progress on offense than it has needed to do in order to hold ground (or only slowly give ground) when on the defensive.  I also see plenty of concern that the West does not appear to be on track to deliver the promised weapons on Ukraine's timeframe for its offensive.  

I don't mean to be the resident Debbie Downer.  Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive could well be a brobdingnagian success.  I just don't have a high level of confidence one way or the other as to what's going to happen next.

[BostonCard]

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

Do they care?  The cream of the crop is leaving the country.  Almost a million people (mostly fighting aged men) have left the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_em...of_Ukraine

It's worse than their losses on the battlefield.

One other comment; the sex mismatch is amongst older Russians (40+), so it is not directly relevant to the war.  But if you look at the age distribution of Russians, there's a big gap in the fighting age population:



Basically, there was a baby bust after the fall of communism (those born in 1990 to 2005), who, unfortunately for Russia, would be 18 - 33 now.  Demographically speaking, the Russians picked an awful time to go to war.

BC

[BostonCard]

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

Do they care?  The cream of the crop is leaving the country.  Almost a million people (mostly fighting aged men) have left the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_em...of_Ukraine

It's worse than their losses on the battlefield.

One other comment; the sex mismatch is amongst older Russians (40+), so it is not directly relevant to the war.  But if you look at the age distribution of Russians, there's a big gap in the fighting age population:



Basically, there was a baby bust after the fall of communism (those born in 1990 to 2005), who, unfortunately for Russia, would be 18 - 33 now.  Demographically speaking, the Russians picked an awful time to go to war.

BC

[dabigv13]

Relevant to Russia's demographic problems

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1626203290986741760?s=20[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Relevant to Russia's demographic problems

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1626203290986741760?s=20[/tweet]

[GK3]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is no where near from running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

True,  but Ukraine is not quite the exhausted German Army, its tanks not functioning in the freezing cold, and supplies running short. So far the Russian attacks do not seem to have caused serious problems for Ukraine in terms of getting ammunition and other supplies to the front.  
Ukraine seems to be well informed about Russian intentions and the old 3 to 1 ratio in terms of attackers to defenders seems to fall short in the current environment of satellite and drone surveillance and artillery pieces who accuracy exceeds the wildest dreams of our soldiers in WWII, Korea and Viet Nam.  Sort of recalls Rudyard Kipling's famous Charge of the Light Brigade.

---

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

Do they care?  The cream of the crop is leaving the country.  Almost a million people (mostly fighting aged men) have left the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_em...of_Ukraine

It's worse than their losses on the battlefield.

The Russian population is shrinking and half the size of ours and almost a quarter of India's and China's population. Almost makes one thinking of the last gasp of a failing empire.  Either fade away with your nuclear weapons or steal populations from your neighbors.  The first is a non starter for Putin I would think.

One other comment; the sex mismatch is amongst older Russians (40+), so it is not directly relevant to the war.  But if you look at the age distribution of Russians, there's a big gap in the fighting age population:



Basically, there was a baby bust after the fall of communism (those born in 1990 to 2005), who, unfortunately for Russia, would be 18 - 33 now.  Demographically speaking, the Russians picked an awful time to go to war.

BC

[GK3]

While all true, we cannot ignore Stalin's maxim that “Quantity has a quality all its own.”  And we are seeing some of that, in that Russia is sending wave after wave of poorly trained conscripts, which, if nothing else, helps find the position of the defenders, which can then be pulverized with artillery.  It is barbaric and inefficient, but Russia is no where near from running out of warm bodies.  That being said, something like 80 - 95% of the entirety of the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine right now, so those bodies are civilians right now.

BC

True,  but Ukraine is not quite the exhausted German Army, its tanks not functioning in the freezing cold, and supplies running short. So far the Russian attacks do not seem to have caused serious problems for Ukraine in terms of getting ammunition and other supplies to the front.  
Ukraine seems to be well informed about Russian intentions and the old 3 to 1 ratio in terms of attackers to defenders seems to fall short in the current environment of satellite and drone surveillance and artillery pieces who accuracy exceeds the wildest dreams of our soldiers in WWII, Korea and Viet Nam.  Sort of recalls Rudyard Kipling's famous Charge of the Light Brigade.

---

This all leads to the question: do they really want to lose the cream of their working-age men?

Do they care?  The cream of the crop is leaving the country.  Almost a million people (mostly fighting aged men) have left the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_em...of_Ukraine

It's worse than their losses on the battlefield.

The Russian population is shrinking and half the size of ours and almost a quarter of India's and China's population. Almost makes one thinking of the last gasp of a failing empire.  Either fade away with your nuclear weapons or steal populations from your neighbors.  The first is a non starter for Putin I would think.

One other comment; the sex mismatch is amongst older Russians (40+), so it is not directly relevant to the war.  But if you look at the age distribution of Russians, there's a big gap in the fighting age population:



Basically, there was a baby bust after the fall of communism (those born in 1990 to 2005), who, unfortunately for Russia, would be 18 - 33 now.  Demographically speaking, the Russians picked an awful time to go to war.

BC

[TrumpCard]

UK estimates 200,000 Russian casualties, including 40,000-60,000 dead:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-dea...s-14305ba5

[TrumpCard]

UK estimates 200,000 Russian casualties, including 40,000-60,000 dead:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-dea...s-14305ba5

[81alum]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

[81alum]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

[newguy]

President Biden is in Kyiv.  
https://abcnews.go.com/International/bid...d=97328622

[newguy]

President Biden is in Kyiv.  
https://abcnews.go.com/International/bid...d=97328622

[OutsiderFan]

Pretty ballsy move by Biden to visit Kyiv when air raid sirens are going off.  Of course, there is no way in hell Russia would target him there, but a big show of support to Ukraine that ties Biden to Ukraine like never before. I certainly hope the visit is more than symbolic, and comes with some surprise weapons allocations.

As for China, the idea of it arming Russia to invade a sovereign democratic country is a little bit this era's Cuban Missile Crisis, only it's not just the U.S. and one other country. It's the whole of NATO and its allies that should be ringing the "General Alarm Fire" bell this calls for now. Every single country needs to put the heat on China, and maybe put economic sanctions on the table that it knows will be triggered if it in fact does go through with arming Russia. There is a profound difference between countries arming Ukraine to protect itself and repel invaders and aiding that invader to take over another country against its will.

Of course, as always, will the people of the free world be willing to take the economic hits and sacrifices that will inevitably come from isolating China from the world economy, if it should start enabling Russia's aggression? It's a hell of a lot cheaper to take the economic pain that fight a kinetic war when the fascists push too far.

[OutsiderFan]

Pretty ballsy move by Biden to visit Kyiv when air raid sirens are going off.  Of course, there is no way in hell Russia would target him there, but a big show of support to Ukraine that ties Biden to Ukraine like never before. I certainly hope the visit is more than symbolic, and comes with some surprise weapons allocations.

As for China, the idea of it arming Russia to invade a sovereign democratic country is a little bit this era's Cuban Missile Crisis, only it's not just the U.S. and one other country. It's the whole of NATO and its allies that should be ringing the "General Alarm Fire" bell this calls for now. Every single country needs to put the heat on China, and maybe put economic sanctions on the table that it knows will be triggered if it in fact does go through with arming Russia. There is a profound difference between countries arming Ukraine to protect itself and repel invaders and aiding that invader to take over another country against its will.

Of course, as always, will the people of the free world be willing to take the economic hits and sacrifices that will inevitably come from isolating China from the world economy, if it should start enabling Russia's aggression? It's a hell of a lot cheaper to take the economic pain that fight a kinetic war when the fascists push too far.

[Goose]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.

[Goose]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.

[Mick]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.

My suspicion is that China's assistance will be minor at best. If they were going to aid the Soviet Union Russia in a substantive way, they would have done it in a deniable, clandestine fashion like Iran. In fact, I wonder if any of the other pariah states have already done so.

[Mick]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.

My suspicion is that China's assistance will be minor at best. If they were going to aid the Soviet Union Russia in a substantive way, they would have done it in a deniable, clandestine fashion like Iran. In fact, I wonder if any of the other pariah states have already done so.

[OutsiderFan]

If the U.S. Government is sounding the alarm on China considering military aid for Russia as they are, it's hard for me to believe the aid being contemplated is benign. It's not like the U.S. and allies get some sort of benefit from crying wolf here. The only reason to complain publicly about China potentially arming Russia is because it is a legitimate threat.

What exactly is the upside of the U.S. freaking out about this issue otherwise?

[OutsiderFan]

If the U.S. Government is sounding the alarm on China considering military aid for Russia as they are, it's hard for me to believe the aid being contemplated is benign. It's not like the U.S. and allies get some sort of benefit from crying wolf here. The only reason to complain publicly about China potentially arming Russia is because it is a legitimate threat.

What exactly is the upside of the U.S. freaking out about this issue otherwise?

[cardcrimson]

If the U.S. Government is sounding the alarm on China considering military aid for Russia as they are, it's hard for me to believe the aid being contemplated is benign. It's not like the U.S. and allies get some sort of benefit from crying wolf here. The only reason to complain publicly about China potentially arming Russia is because it is a legitimate threat.

What exactly is the upside of the U.S. freaking out about this issue otherwise?

Crying wolf? You mean like air raid sirens going off when there is zero chance of an air raid as you pointed out above? Theatre, perhaps?

[cardcrimson]

If the U.S. Government is sounding the alarm on China considering military aid for Russia as they are, it's hard for me to believe the aid being contemplated is benign. It's not like the U.S. and allies get some sort of benefit from crying wolf here. The only reason to complain publicly about China potentially arming Russia is because it is a legitimate threat.

What exactly is the upside of the U.S. freaking out about this issue otherwise?

Crying wolf? You mean like air raid sirens going off when there is zero chance of an air raid as you pointed out above? Theatre, perhaps?