03-12-2023, 08:49 PM
per NPR news, the Russian offensive in Bakhmut has stalled, though I find that hard to believe.
BC
BC
Quote:Russia was already a month into its campaign to bomb Ukraine’s energy infrastructure campaign when the man in charge of Ukraine’s power grid, Volodymyr Kudrytsky, saw a fleet of kamikaze drones headed towards his office. The attack on October 17th at Ukrenergo’s Kyiv headquarters sent many of his colleagues screaming and running for the shelters. Others stayed above ground to try to shoot down the drones. But Mr Kudrytsky headed off to move parked cars to safer spaces. “Some of us have experienced five, ten, twenty attacks over this winter and at one point you cease being frightened,” he recalls. “We’ve learned to be calm while everyone else is losing their minds.”
The latest rocket attack, in the early hours of March 9th, saw Russia target hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of missiles on critical infrastructure. It tested the tenacity of energy planners for the 15th time this winter. But with most of the country swiftly brought back on line, it did not change the fundamentals; Ukraine is still winning a historical battle in which few had expected it to prevail. Engineers are now repairing the system faster than it can be destroyed. Prior to the latest attack, Kyiv had enjoyed four consecutive weeks with no outages. The use by Russia of hard-to-replace Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles at the end of winter would appear to indicate increasing desperation in Moscow.
Quote:Russia was already a month into its campaign to bomb Ukraine’s energy infrastructure campaign when the man in charge of Ukraine’s power grid, Volodymyr Kudrytsky, saw a fleet of kamikaze drones headed towards his office. The attack on October 17th at Ukrenergo’s Kyiv headquarters sent many of his colleagues screaming and running for the shelters. Others stayed above ground to try to shoot down the drones. But Mr Kudrytsky headed off to move parked cars to safer spaces. “Some of us have experienced five, ten, twenty attacks over this winter and at one point you cease being frightened,” he recalls. “We’ve learned to be calm while everyone else is losing their minds.”
The latest rocket attack, in the early hours of March 9th, saw Russia target hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of missiles on critical infrastructure. It tested the tenacity of energy planners for the 15th time this winter. But with most of the country swiftly brought back on line, it did not change the fundamentals; Ukraine is still winning a historical battle in which few had expected it to prevail. Engineers are now repairing the system faster than it can be destroyed. Prior to the latest attack, Kyiv had enjoyed four consecutive weeks with no outages. The use by Russia of hard-to-replace Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles at the end of winter would appear to indicate increasing desperation in Moscow.
(03-14-2023, 03:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Probably nothing beyond reaching out to Russia to "express disapproval". It was a "juvenile but accidental" event.The US crashed the drone into the Black Sea. It was not recovered, and was hopefully destroyed. I hope the comms link had an auto-destruct charge available and it worked. If not, this incident could cost the US a whole lot of time and money. Due to the Montreux Convention being enforced, I would imagine the US cannot dispatch a recovery operation for whatever remains of the MQ-9. Russia is not constrained against recovering the wreckage.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-jet...mwhatsnews
The drone was brought down by the US, which I take it to mean that it was recovered, not that it was destroyed.
(03-14-2023, 03:21 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Probably nothing beyond reaching out to Russia to "express disapproval". It was a "juvenile but accidental" event.The US crashed the drone into the Black Sea. It was not recovered, and was hopefully destroyed. I hope the comms link had an auto-destruct charge available and it worked. If not, this incident could cost the US a whole lot of time and money. Due to the Montreux Convention being enforced, I would imagine the US cannot dispatch a recovery operation for whatever remains of the MQ-9. Russia is not constrained against recovering the wreckage.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-jet...mwhatsnews
The drone was brought down by the US, which I take it to mean that it was recovered, not that it was destroyed.
Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
(03-14-2023, 04:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Read too fast and missed this paragraph:
Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
BC
(03-14-2023, 04:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Read too fast and missed this paragraph:
Quote:The U.S. hasn’t recovered the wreckage and officials declined to discuss any operations to recover it. The U.S. no longer sails its ships in the Black Sea, following a Turkish prohibition on warships imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.
BC
(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote: I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.
(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote: I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.
(03-15-2023, 05:34 AM)Goose Wrote:(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote: I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.
For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.
(03-15-2023, 05:34 AM)Goose Wrote:(03-14-2023, 10:11 PM)GK3 Wrote: I have seen multiple reports in last 24 hours that Russian forces are facing severe shortages of ammunition of many types.The fact Russia has been using lots less artillery is undisputed. There are also anecdotal reports of troops advancing without small arms. I think it is prudent to assume that Russia is withholding ammunition as opposed to they don't have it. It is entirely possible they have been scraping the bottom of the barrel and are becoming concerned about a Ukrainian offensive(s). The Russian military is at least professional enough to know you don't want to be without ammunition and over-extended. The Ukrainians have pointed out that Russia is now moving ammunition from lots farther east than before. It may impose "supply chain" restrictions on their usage and require much longer resupply intervals.
For better or worse, Ukraine has been openly touting their upcoming "spring offensive". It is now probably imperative that they have one, at least for their own political credibility. Russia may be settling down to "play defense" for a while, willingly or by necessity. Kursk comes to mind in that regard. I expect we shall see, but I hope Ukraine operates on their timetable, not Russia's or NATO's. They have been training lots of troops both inside and outside of Ukraine. This has undoubtedly put heavy stress on the units who have been doing the fighting to make this possible. It may be they get only one chance at this, as a notable failure will fuel opinion in "the West" that Ukraine is doomed. Timing is important. If Russia is "temporarily" short of ammunition, Ukraine undoubtedly wants to take advantage. OTOH, they don't want to go off at "half-cocked". Hopefully Ukraine knows the actual situation.
(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...35393?s=20
(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...35393?s=20
(03-15-2023, 03:54 PM)M T Wrote:It is a given that all drones have a severe weight and size budget. Adding an explosive with adequate killing power on the off chance you could blow up a Russian fighter that got too close is just not at all worth it.(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...35393?s=20
I wonder whether treaties prevent surveillance drones from having some sort of shrapnel explosive device to "self destruct" (on command) when another aircraft comes close enough for the shrapnel to be effective. I guess if there were such treaties, it would prohibit drones from doing the kinds of things Russia is doing with them.
It wouldn't prevent an aircraft from shooting down a drone, but it might be a big surprise to a Russian pilot once.
(03-15-2023, 03:54 PM)M T Wrote:It is a given that all drones have a severe weight and size budget. Adding an explosive with adequate killing power on the off chance you could blow up a Russian fighter that got too close is just not at all worth it.(03-15-2023, 03:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Re: Reaper recovery
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...35393?s=20
I wonder whether treaties prevent surveillance drones from having some sort of shrapnel explosive device to "self destruct" (on command) when another aircraft comes close enough for the shrapnel to be effective. I guess if there were such treaties, it would prohibit drones from doing the kinds of things Russia is doing with them.
It wouldn't prevent an aircraft from shooting down a drone, but it might be a big surprise to a Russian pilot once.