[dabigv13]

Nothing in your link indicates there has been a delay in provision of recently announced aid. Ukraine has been slowly retreating in the east since before the aid was passed, Russia made good progress in area of overlapping responsibility between Ukrainian units near Ocheretyne which they have continued to exploit. Ukrainian units are understrength. It will take some time for them to fall back to their next prepared defensive line and for the new aid to help stabilize the front, and more importantly for newly trained recruits to reach the front.

While we don't know just how much and what types of munitions Ukraine has received from the newest announced aid (for obvious reasons) there is nothing public that contradicts the administration statements that some aid would be en route immediately, like it typically has with previously announced aid.

[dabigv13]

Nothing in your link indicates there has been a delay in provision of recently announced aid. Ukraine has been slowly retreating in the east since before the aid was passed, Russia made good progress in area of overlapping responsibility between Ukrainian units near Ocheretyne which they have continued to exploit. Ukrainian units are understrength. It will take some time for them to fall back to their next prepared defensive line and for the new aid to help stabilize the front, and more importantly for newly trained recruits to reach the front.

While we don't know just how much and what types of munitions Ukraine has received from the newest announced aid (for obvious reasons) there is nothing public that contradicts the administration statements that some aid would be en route immediately, like it typically has with previously announced aid.

[Goose]

Nothing in your link indicates there has been a delay in provision of recently announced aid. Ukraine has been slowly retreating in the east since before the aid was passed, Russia made good progress in area of overlapping responsibility between Ukrainian units near Ocheretyne which they have continued to exploit. Ukrainian units are understrength. It will take some time for them to fall back to their next prepared defensive line and for the new aid to help stabilize the front, and more importantly for newly trained recruits to reach the front.

You are correct that the word "delay" is not included in the link. However, the title "Ukraine retreats in the east as Russia pushes forward while U.S. ally waits for aid" says they are "waiting" for aid that is not yet there. Some of the aid was supposedly prepositioned in Europe for delivery. Supposedly it would be transferred as soon "as the ink was dry". It doesn't take 4 days for that to happen. Any materiel flown by C-17s shouldn't be far behind. Further, the article text includes

Syrskyi said, adding that Kyiv was working with its partners to obtain weapons and military equipment “as soon as possible.”
The rush to get the long-awaited weapons is increasingly becoming an urgent necessity for Ukraine to hold on to its territory as the Kremlin’s forces appear to have stepped up their assault.
It comes just over a week after Congress passed a $61 billion aid package

From that it is clear the aid isn't there yet. It is a "delay" if you take the statements made by some members of the administration regarding the immediacy of the deliveries. It is not a "delay" if you take literally the other statements of the administration about "starting to send", which places no constraint on how long it will take to deliver aid. You are also correct that the aid won't immediately solve all of Ukraine's problems, especially the lack of replacements/reserves to keep their formations intact. However, we don't have much control over those problems.

We do however have control over how long it takes us to deliver the material, or certainly should have. If some of it was supposed to be prepositioned in Europe for immediate delivery, Ukraine shouldn't be "waiting", which they are. We would be getting positive feedback of delivery. We are not. IF OTOH our "plan" was to take weeks to have the aid begin arriving in Ukraine, our plan was incompetent and not fit for purpose. If the plan was made that way due to lack of capability to do better, that is its own problem. Either way, it is on us IMO.

[Goose]

Nothing in your link indicates there has been a delay in provision of recently announced aid. Ukraine has been slowly retreating in the east since before the aid was passed, Russia made good progress in area of overlapping responsibility between Ukrainian units near Ocheretyne which they have continued to exploit. Ukrainian units are understrength. It will take some time for them to fall back to their next prepared defensive line and for the new aid to help stabilize the front, and more importantly for newly trained recruits to reach the front.

You are correct that the word "delay" is not included in the link. However, the title "Ukraine retreats in the east as Russia pushes forward while U.S. ally waits for aid" says they are "waiting" for aid that is not yet there. Some of the aid was supposedly prepositioned in Europe for delivery. Supposedly it would be transferred as soon "as the ink was dry". It doesn't take 4 days for that to happen. Any materiel flown by C-17s shouldn't be far behind. Further, the article text includes

Syrskyi said, adding that Kyiv was working with its partners to obtain weapons and military equipment “as soon as possible.”
The rush to get the long-awaited weapons is increasingly becoming an urgent necessity for Ukraine to hold on to its territory as the Kremlin’s forces appear to have stepped up their assault.
It comes just over a week after Congress passed a $61 billion aid package

From that it is clear the aid isn't there yet. It is a "delay" if you take the statements made by some members of the administration regarding the immediacy of the deliveries. It is not a "delay" if you take literally the other statements of the administration about "starting to send", which places no constraint on how long it will take to deliver aid. You are also correct that the aid won't immediately solve all of Ukraine's problems, especially the lack of replacements/reserves to keep their formations intact. However, we don't have much control over those problems.

We do however have control over how long it takes us to deliver the material, or certainly should have. If some of it was supposed to be prepositioned in Europe for immediate delivery, Ukraine shouldn't be "waiting", which they are. We would be getting positive feedback of delivery. We are not. IF OTOH our "plan" was to take weeks to have the aid begin arriving in Ukraine, our plan was incompetent and not fit for purpose. If the plan was made that way due to lack of capability to do better, that is its own problem. Either way, it is on us IMO.

[dabigv13]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent. And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

[dabigv13]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent. And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

[GK3]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent. And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

I have been unable to find any article that says anything has yet been delivered.  Nor anything that even inidicates certain items were already prepositioned and would be in Ukrainian hands very quickly.  Governments like to be able to pat themselves on the back and show how well that planned and thought things out.  The press releases are far too general to my way of thinking. If you were really going to have some sort of supplies in Ukranian hands within say 4 days after the President's signature, why not say so?  You don't have to say what, although my guess is that the Russians have a very good idea what and how much of what is coming.  Their intelligence service can be relatively competent.  It is I think well known that artillery shells and antiaircraft weapons are the most needed items.
The government has had months to determine what stuff and how much stuff they are going to send.  They should have had a good handle on what was going to be needed ASAP and then some effort made to preposition whatever that stuff is if possible.

[GK3]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent. And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

I have been unable to find any article that says anything has yet been delivered.  Nor anything that even inidicates certain items were already prepositioned and would be in Ukrainian hands very quickly.  Governments like to be able to pat themselves on the back and show how well that planned and thought things out.  The press releases are far too general to my way of thinking. If you were really going to have some sort of supplies in Ukranian hands within say 4 days after the President's signature, why not say so?  You don't have to say what, although my guess is that the Russians have a very good idea what and how much of what is coming.  Their intelligence service can be relatively competent.  It is I think well known that artillery shells and antiaircraft weapons are the most needed items.
The government has had months to determine what stuff and how much stuff they are going to send.  They should have had a good handle on what was going to be needed ASAP and then some effort made to preposition whatever that stuff is if possible.

[dabigv13]

Zelensky has acknowledged aid has been delivered from the latest American tranche (though he wants more), though no specifics. 

Lots of other articles from the days just before and after the vote on aid indicated the US had prepositioned stocks anticipating passage of the bill.

Here is one-

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/22/europe/uk...index.html

While American officials will not say so openly, a US source familiar with the provision of military aid to Ukraine said much of it is already pre-positioned in storage facilities in Germany and Poland, which would obviously cut down on the amount of time needed to get it into Ukraine. The source also said artillery shells would be among the first materials moved forward.

[dabigv13]

Zelensky has acknowledged aid has been delivered from the latest American tranche (though he wants more), though no specifics. 

Lots of other articles from the days just before and after the vote on aid indicated the US had prepositioned stocks anticipating passage of the bill.

Here is one-

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/22/europe/uk...index.html

While American officials will not say so openly, a US source familiar with the provision of military aid to Ukraine said much of it is already pre-positioned in storage facilities in Germany and Poland, which would obviously cut down on the amount of time needed to get it into Ukraine. The source also said artillery shells would be among the first materials moved forward.

[Goose]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent.

We may be somewhat talking past each other. You seem to be talking about "delays" and I am talking about arrivals. I too can't point to an article about specific numbers of arrivals of aid, in particular artillery shells. I wouldn't necessarily to ever see lots of statistics. However,  I also can't point to any articles of any kind referencing aid arriving in Ukraine (regardless of quantity) and even more significantly I read in articles about "waiting" for aid without any statements from Ukraine thanking the US for what has already arrived. Even if that amount of aid wasn't militarily significant I would expect such publicity. Ukraine is already suffering from increasing doubts in the population about the possibility of victory. Any "good news" would be very welcome, yet we don't hear any. The fact nothing was specifically stated about the latest US aid is exactly the point. Should I believe "all is well" because nobody is saying anything to that effect? 

And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

This is a bit hard for me to process. The fact that the available reporting does not say any aid has arrived implies that I am "twisting" available reporting by saying that aid has not arrived? Indeed if there were reports that there were "delays" causing aid to not arrive, that would give us a direct data point. IMO there are good political reasons for Ukraine to highlight the arrival of some actual aid, particularly artillery shells, in Ukraine. You may not agree. In the absence of any reports of arrival you conclude that means that "all is well" and things are and have been arriving in considerable quantity. This conclusion is supported by the fact there are no reports saying this not the case.  I conclude that because there are no reports of arrival that arrivals have not happened. This conclusion is supported by the articles that talk about "waiting" and the political (morale raising) reasons for both Ukraine and the US to report such arrivals. Your assumption appears to be that lack of arrivals would be reported and my assumption is that arrivals would/will be reported.  Understandably, I like my position much better than I like yours :-).

FWIW, there were very good strategic reasons to not reveal the ATACMS delivery in advance. It allowed them to be used first without giving Russia warning they would be dealing with a new threat. The aid packages that have been approved in this aid tranche are already public knowledge, although there may be some surprises hidden in non-specific wording.

[Goose]

I think you're reading too much into these statements because you have an axe to grind based on some preconceived notions. Every indication is that lots of aid was prepositioned and nothing was delaying any C17s.

I can't point you to an article that says x number of air defense missiles and y number of artillery shells have already been delivered, but similarly the article you link only talks generally about needing more aid, nothing specifically about the latest US aid that was sent.

We may be somewhat talking past each other. You seem to be talking about "delays" and I am talking about arrivals. I too can't point to an article about specific numbers of arrivals of aid, in particular artillery shells. I wouldn't necessarily to ever see lots of statistics. However,  I also can't point to any articles of any kind referencing aid arriving in Ukraine (regardless of quantity) and even more significantly I read in articles about "waiting" for aid without any statements from Ukraine thanking the US for what has already arrived. Even if that amount of aid wasn't militarily significant I would expect such publicity. Ukraine is already suffering from increasing doubts in the population about the possibility of victory. Any "good news" would be very welcome, yet we don't hear any. The fact nothing was specifically stated about the latest US aid is exactly the point. Should I believe "all is well" because nobody is saying anything to that effect? 

And of course any aid the US has delivered is not delivered directly to the front, it is delivered to western Ukraine, where it would presumably take some time to securely get to undermanned front positions that are organizing delaying actions and retreats under fire (a process that unfortunately has been ongoing since before the aid bill was passed.) In terms of public information, we do know for instance that Ukraine has received long range ATACMS even before being announced. And we have seen several more instances of its deployment in the days since the aid bill was announced.

The many months of delay in approving the aid was certainly a problem. There has been no publicly available information that I'm aware of to indicate any problematic delays of aid that has already been approved, it seems you are twisting the available reporting to conform to your assumptions.

This is a bit hard for me to process. The fact that the available reporting does not say any aid has arrived implies that I am "twisting" available reporting by saying that aid has not arrived? Indeed if there were reports that there were "delays" causing aid to not arrive, that would give us a direct data point. IMO there are good political reasons for Ukraine to highlight the arrival of some actual aid, particularly artillery shells, in Ukraine. You may not agree. In the absence of any reports of arrival you conclude that means that "all is well" and things are and have been arriving in considerable quantity. This conclusion is supported by the fact there are no reports saying this not the case.  I conclude that because there are no reports of arrival that arrivals have not happened. This conclusion is supported by the articles that talk about "waiting" and the political (morale raising) reasons for both Ukraine and the US to report such arrivals. Your assumption appears to be that lack of arrivals would be reported and my assumption is that arrivals would/will be reported.  Understandably, I like my position much better than I like yours :-).

FWIW, there were very good strategic reasons to not reveal the ATACMS delivery in advance. It allowed them to be used first without giving Russia warning they would be dealing with a new threat. The aid packages that have been approved in this aid tranche are already public knowledge, although there may be some surprises hidden in non-specific wording.

[dabigv13]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

[dabigv13]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

[Goose]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

We aren't getting anywhere here. Your quote above says they have "initiated delivery". I am not at all discounting that reporting. It means exactly what it says. Like UPS, this is the "label created" status. What I am looking for is UPS status "delivered", and I haven't seen that nor have you provided such.

I do agree that I have a "bugaboo" about this motivated by the knowledge that our country often makes great pronouncements and then doesn't execute well. For reasons I think we all mostly agree are unfortunate, the US was unable to keep up a steady flow of material to Ukraine. I was indeed concerned that when those constraints were removed we would not have prepared well enough to deliver the aid immediately to Ukraine. I see no evidence so far that my concern was misplaced. Lots of articles saying "“We've already started the process to move some of the weapons, ammunition, and equipment which will be, as I mentioned earlier there within days, if not sooner,”. We are well beyond the "within days" condition. It is of course possible that lots of aid is already in Ukraine. Neither of us has evidence of that yet. Given no evidence otherwise I do believe we have under-performed. I would suggest we wait and see what unfolds. I won't comment further, but failing retrospective knowledge of deliveries made but not reported our military hasn't executed their assigned task well, as I feared.

[Goose]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

We aren't getting anywhere here. Your quote above says they have "initiated delivery". I am not at all discounting that reporting. It means exactly what it says. Like UPS, this is the "label created" status. What I am looking for is UPS status "delivered", and I haven't seen that nor have you provided such.

I do agree that I have a "bugaboo" about this motivated by the knowledge that our country often makes great pronouncements and then doesn't execute well. For reasons I think we all mostly agree are unfortunate, the US was unable to keep up a steady flow of material to Ukraine. I was indeed concerned that when those constraints were removed we would not have prepared well enough to deliver the aid immediately to Ukraine. I see no evidence so far that my concern was misplaced. Lots of articles saying "“We've already started the process to move some of the weapons, ammunition, and equipment which will be, as I mentioned earlier there within days, if not sooner,”. We are well beyond the "within days" condition. It is of course possible that lots of aid is already in Ukraine. Neither of us has evidence of that yet. Given no evidence otherwise I do believe we have under-performed. I would suggest we wait and see what unfolds. I won't comment further, but failing retrospective knowledge of deliveries made but not reported our military hasn't executed their assigned task well, as I feared.

[GK3]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

The supplies may well have been prepositioned, but by all accounts I have seen, it is NOT getting their as fast as it should have.  Both NATO and Zelensky have been outspoken about our failure to deliver the goods promptly.  I do not believe he would be this critical if it were not fact.  It takes more than the passage of the bill by Congress and the signature of the President to make things move.  Some high up in the food chain needed to make sure that stuff started getting loaded as soon as the ink was dry.

[GK3]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31722

More about US aid being delivered.

The United States had initiated the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a new aid package, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder announced, speaking during a briefing.

Ryder informed journalists that he could not disclose specific details regarding the terms of the military aid delivery to Ukraine.

We have plenty of reporting that the US prepositioned aid, and has already sent aid, but you seem to discount this reporting. In fact you have been complaining about possible delays in aid since the day the latest bill was passed, so it seems this is a bugaboo of yours, it just seems it is based on some pre-existing animus rather than knowledge of what's actually happening with the latest aid.

The supplies may well have been prepositioned, but by all accounts I have seen, it is NOT getting their as fast as it should have.  Both NATO and Zelensky have been outspoken about our failure to deliver the goods promptly.  I do not believe he would be this critical if it were not fact.  It takes more than the passage of the bill by Congress and the signature of the President to make things move.  Some high up in the food chain needed to make sure that stuff started getting loaded as soon as the ink was dry.

[TrumpCard]

I still maintain that it is absurd to discuss a week of post-approval delay at this level of depth while intentionally ignoring the 6-month delay in approving the requested aid.  I am not interested in blaming anyone in particular for that 6-month delay.  I just hope the U.S. can learn from that mistake, and negotiate any subsequent aid packages well in advance.  Even if there are differences of opinion as to what decision the U.S. should make about future aid packages, I do not see much of a case favoring procrastination in working through the decision.

[TrumpCard]

I still maintain that it is absurd to discuss a week of post-approval delay at this level of depth while intentionally ignoring the 6-month delay in approving the requested aid.  I am not interested in blaming anyone in particular for that 6-month delay.  I just hope the U.S. can learn from that mistake, and negotiate any subsequent aid packages well in advance.  Even if there are differences of opinion as to what decision the U.S. should make about future aid packages, I do not see much of a case favoring procrastination in working through the decision.

[Mick]

Estimates of Russian losses to date, per UK Armed Forces Minister Leo Doherty. Casualties do not include losses from mercenary groups like Wagner, nor does it include desertions. Link here. https://www.the-sun.com/news/11217826/pu...elligence/

[Mick]

Estimates of Russian losses to date, per UK Armed Forces Minister Leo Doherty. Casualties do not include losses from mercenary groups like Wagner, nor does it include desertions. Link here. https://www.the-sun.com/news/11217826/pu...elligence/

[dabigv13]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

[dabigv13]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

[Goose]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

An additional post with a similar theme
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-force...52064.html

The post clearly confirms that EW is the method by which Excalibur 155mm shells are being rendered inaccurate.

The GLSDB seems to be a complete dud :-). The targeting system has severe problems with GPS jamming and the ground launching scheme apparently is also problematic. Not a big surprise, as many weapons systems have initial "problems", although it appears the testing that was done did not replicate Ukrainian ground conditions.

Your analysis that different weapons have different vulnerabilities to jamming is exactly correct. I am frankly aghast at the fact we are apparently "studying the problem". These vulnerabilities are in no way new news, so the fact we have no "answer" ready to go is very disconcerting. The "best" way to "solve" it in the short term is to destroy the GPS jammers. This is always going to be the case because improvements in the weapons themselves must be developed, tested, and retrofitted to a very large number (many thousands) of weapons. That is at a minimum very costly and sometimes impractical. In particular, adding anything beyond software changes to Excalibur rounds is so mechanically challenging it is unlikely to be practical.

Modifications of existing weapons also has the problem that the jammers can possibly be modified in turn to defeat the changes. Historically Russia has been quite good a "jamming" and often utilize several different approaches to the problem simultaneously. This makes ECCM aginst them more difficult. The jammers will always have the advantage that modifying one jammer can negate the effectiveness of all instances of a given weapons system.  OTOH modifications to a weapons system have to be applied to every instance of that weapon you intend to use. 

ATACMS is vulnerable to GPS jamming. Many of the targets in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, are not (yet) protected by GPS jamming because said targets were considered beyond the range of Ukrainian precision weapons. This was IMO certainly one reason not to announce our intention to provide them until after the fact. Russia doesn't have an infinite number of jammers, so the ATACMS will require them to deploy more of them than the "want to" and perhaps more than they have. In any case, they can't do it instantly. Make hay while the sun shines, because the clouds are on the way.

[Goose]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

An additional post with a similar theme
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-force...52064.html

The post clearly confirms that EW is the method by which Excalibur 155mm shells are being rendered inaccurate.

The GLSDB seems to be a complete dud :-). The targeting system has severe problems with GPS jamming and the ground launching scheme apparently is also problematic. Not a big surprise, as many weapons systems have initial "problems", although it appears the testing that was done did not replicate Ukrainian ground conditions.

Your analysis that different weapons have different vulnerabilities to jamming is exactly correct. I am frankly aghast at the fact we are apparently "studying the problem". These vulnerabilities are in no way new news, so the fact we have no "answer" ready to go is very disconcerting. The "best" way to "solve" it in the short term is to destroy the GPS jammers. This is always going to be the case because improvements in the weapons themselves must be developed, tested, and retrofitted to a very large number (many thousands) of weapons. That is at a minimum very costly and sometimes impractical. In particular, adding anything beyond software changes to Excalibur rounds is so mechanically challenging it is unlikely to be practical.

Modifications of existing weapons also has the problem that the jammers can possibly be modified in turn to defeat the changes. Historically Russia has been quite good a "jamming" and often utilize several different approaches to the problem simultaneously. This makes ECCM aginst them more difficult. The jammers will always have the advantage that modifying one jammer can negate the effectiveness of all instances of a given weapons system.  OTOH modifications to a weapons system have to be applied to every instance of that weapon you intend to use. 

ATACMS is vulnerable to GPS jamming. Many of the targets in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, are not (yet) protected by GPS jamming because said targets were considered beyond the range of Ukrainian precision weapons. This was IMO certainly one reason not to announce our intention to provide them until after the fact. Russia doesn't have an infinite number of jammers, so the ATACMS will require them to deploy more of them than the "want to" and perhaps more than they have. In any case, they can't do it instantly. Make hay while the sun shines, because the clouds are on the way.

[Leftcoast]

Anybody else getting Spanish Civil War flashbacks from Ukraine?  There sure seem to be parallels.

[Leftcoast]

Anybody else getting Spanish Civil War flashbacks from Ukraine?  There sure seem to be parallels.

[dabigv13]

The Spanish Civil War was a more lopsided contest than the Russian-Ukraine war. The nationalists started off controlling something like a third of Spain, within about a year controlling half of Spain, and then making steady progress in controlling the remainder over the next two years.

Ukraine is in a bad way now. But they're much better positioned than Republican Spain was at maybe any time during that conflict. Russia at its maximum controlled ~27% of Ukrainian territory (this includes Crimea and parts of Donetsk occupied since 2014), reduced to ~18% after Ukrainian counterattacks. Since then Russia has gained somewhere on the order of a few hundred square miles, really not much in such a large country. The news has been bad for Ukraine for a while but they are not ceding large chunks of ground and Russia is paying heavily for their small advances.

[dabigv13]

The Spanish Civil War was a more lopsided contest than the Russian-Ukraine war. The nationalists started off controlling something like a third of Spain, within about a year controlling half of Spain, and then making steady progress in controlling the remainder over the next two years.

Ukraine is in a bad way now. But they're much better positioned than Republican Spain was at maybe any time during that conflict. Russia at its maximum controlled ~27% of Ukrainian territory (this includes Crimea and parts of Donetsk occupied since 2014), reduced to ~18% after Ukrainian counterattacks. Since then Russia has gained somewhere on the order of a few hundred square miles, really not much in such a large country. The news has been bad for Ukraine for a while but they are not ceding large chunks of ground and Russia is paying heavily for their small advances.

[Goose]

The Spanish Civil War was a more lopsided contest than the Russian-Ukraine war. The nationalists started off controlling something like a third of Spain, within about a year controlling half of Spain, and then making steady progress in controlling the remainder over the next two years.

Agree this is not much like the Spanish civil war. The Republicans had much sympathy but little effective international support. The nationalists were the military to start with, so they began with less territory but were better armed and much better organized. They also got effective support (both military and financial) from Italy and Germany. The Republican side got ineffective support from Russia that turned into an Socialist vs Communist war within a war. Not at all like Ukraine IMO.

Ukraine is in a bad way now. But they're much better positioned than Republican Spain was at maybe any time during that conflict. Russia at its maximum controlled ~27% of Ukrainian territory (this includes Crimea and parts of Donetsk occupied since 2014), reduced to ~18% after Ukrainian counterattacks. Since then Russia has gained somewhere on the order of a few hundred square miles, really not much in such a large country. The news has been bad for Ukraine for a while but they are not ceding large chunks of ground and Russia is paying heavily for their small advances.

Agree. Ukraine is not in a bad way territoriality (relatively speaking) and has the backing (to some degree) from larger, wealthier states. They are unfortunately fighting a power with a much larger population and much greater resources. It is a tough situation, but not an impossible one by any means.

[Goose]

The Spanish Civil War was a more lopsided contest than the Russian-Ukraine war. The nationalists started off controlling something like a third of Spain, within about a year controlling half of Spain, and then making steady progress in controlling the remainder over the next two years.

Agree this is not much like the Spanish civil war. The Republicans had much sympathy but little effective international support. The nationalists were the military to start with, so they began with less territory but were better armed and much better organized. They also got effective support (both military and financial) from Italy and Germany. The Republican side got ineffective support from Russia that turned into an Socialist vs Communist war within a war. Not at all like Ukraine IMO.

Ukraine is in a bad way now. But they're much better positioned than Republican Spain was at maybe any time during that conflict. Russia at its maximum controlled ~27% of Ukrainian territory (this includes Crimea and parts of Donetsk occupied since 2014), reduced to ~18% after Ukrainian counterattacks. Since then Russia has gained somewhere on the order of a few hundred square miles, really not much in such a large country. The news has been bad for Ukraine for a while but they are not ceding large chunks of ground and Russia is paying heavily for their small advances.

Agree. Ukraine is not in a bad way territoriality (relatively speaking) and has the backing (to some degree) from larger, wealthier states. They are unfortunately fighting a power with a much larger population and much greater resources. It is a tough situation, but not an impossible one by any means.

[gocard14]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

An additional post with a similar theme
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-force...52064.html

The post clearly confirms that EW is the method by which Excalibur 155mm shells are being rendered inaccurate.

The GLSDB seems to be a complete dud :-). The targeting system has severe problems with GPS jamming and the ground launching scheme apparently is also problematic. Not a big surprise, as many weapons systems have initial "problems", although it appears the testing that was done did not replicate Ukrainian ground conditions.

Your analysis that different weapons have different vulnerabilities to jamming is exactly correct. I am frankly aghast at the fact we are apparently "studying the problem". These vulnerabilities are in no way new news, so the fact we have no "answer" ready to go is very disconcerting. The "best" way to "solve" it in the short term is to destroy the GPS jammers. This is always going to be the case because improvements in the weapons themselves must be developed, tested, and retrofitted to a very large number (many thousands) of weapons. That is at a minimum very costly and sometimes impractical. In particular, adding anything beyond software changes to Excalibur rounds is so mechanically challenging it is unlikely to be practical.

Modifications of existing weapons also has the problem that the jammers can possibly be modified in turn to defeat the changes. Historically Russia has been quite good a "jamming" and often utilize several different approaches to the problem simultaneously. This makes ECCM aginst them more difficult. The jammers will always have the advantage that modifying one jammer can negate the effectiveness of all instances of a given weapons system.  OTOH modifications to a weapons system have to be applied to every instance of that weapon you intend to use. 

ATACMS is vulnerable to GPS jamming. Many of the targets in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, are not (yet) protected by GPS jamming because said targets were considered beyond the range of Ukrainian precision weapons. This was IMO certainly one reason not to announce our intention to provide them until after the fact. Russia doesn't have an infinite number of jammers, so the ATACMS will require them to deploy more of them than the "want to" and perhaps more than they have. In any case, they can't do it instantly. Make hay while the sun shines, because the clouds are on the way.

Sounds like there is a strong need for a cheap, ubiquitous "home on jam" drone. I know HARM's can do this, but are scarce and expensive. If the cheap quadcopter or fixed wing drones could be modified to target GPS jamming signals in a cost-effective fashion, that would be a massive development.

[gocard14]

Russia appears to have recaptured Robotyne, a settlement that Ukraine had themselves recaptured in their counter offensive last year. Russia is pushing on several fronts.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1785340931308159097

GPS guided Excalibur rounds accuracy has been seriously degraded by Russian EW. Estimates of 6% accuracy now. Anecdotally videos of successful Excalibur strikes have been rare/absent the past several months.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785224435974250953

And supposedly Ukraine is no longer using GMLRS due to degraded accuracy. Some suggestion this could be a mistatement actually referring to GDSLB, as we know that has had problems and there have been plenty of recent GMLRS strike videos.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1785218234028826902

More on GDSLB problems here. Boeing supposedly doing updates for guidance system that will hopefully help. Lockheed has been doing updates for JDAMs that may have helped somewhat.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/...ys/396141/

ATACMS still seems effective though. More strikes on Dzankhoi and other airbases in Crimea overnight.

Interesting that there seems to be differences in how effective Russian EW is against various GPS guided munitions. There may be different EW deployment at different ranges from the front or at airbase targets where Russia may be using less EW to avoid interrupting their own equipment. Also plausible that the different guidance systems themselves may be more or less susceptible or some  have better or more robust secondary inertial guidance. Interesting that GMLRS and JDAM have underwent upgrades that at least partially counteract Russian EW while Excaliber and GDSLB have not or not yet had success with that.

An additional post with a similar theme
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-force...52064.html

The post clearly confirms that EW is the method by which Excalibur 155mm shells are being rendered inaccurate.

The GLSDB seems to be a complete dud :-). The targeting system has severe problems with GPS jamming and the ground launching scheme apparently is also problematic. Not a big surprise, as many weapons systems have initial "problems", although it appears the testing that was done did not replicate Ukrainian ground conditions.

Your analysis that different weapons have different vulnerabilities to jamming is exactly correct. I am frankly aghast at the fact we are apparently "studying the problem". These vulnerabilities are in no way new news, so the fact we have no "answer" ready to go is very disconcerting. The "best" way to "solve" it in the short term is to destroy the GPS jammers. This is always going to be the case because improvements in the weapons themselves must be developed, tested, and retrofitted to a very large number (many thousands) of weapons. That is at a minimum very costly and sometimes impractical. In particular, adding anything beyond software changes to Excalibur rounds is so mechanically challenging it is unlikely to be practical.

Modifications of existing weapons also has the problem that the jammers can possibly be modified in turn to defeat the changes. Historically Russia has been quite good a "jamming" and often utilize several different approaches to the problem simultaneously. This makes ECCM aginst them more difficult. The jammers will always have the advantage that modifying one jammer can negate the effectiveness of all instances of a given weapons system.  OTOH modifications to a weapons system have to be applied to every instance of that weapon you intend to use. 

ATACMS is vulnerable to GPS jamming. Many of the targets in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, are not (yet) protected by GPS jamming because said targets were considered beyond the range of Ukrainian precision weapons. This was IMO certainly one reason not to announce our intention to provide them until after the fact. Russia doesn't have an infinite number of jammers, so the ATACMS will require them to deploy more of them than the "want to" and perhaps more than they have. In any case, they can't do it instantly. Make hay while the sun shines, because the clouds are on the way.

Sounds like there is a strong need for a cheap, ubiquitous "home on jam" drone. I know HARM's can do this, but are scarce and expensive. If the cheap quadcopter or fixed wing drones could be modified to target GPS jamming signals in a cost-effective fashion, that would be a massive development.

[Goose]

Sounds like there is a strong need for a cheap, ubiquitous "home on jam" drone. I know HARM's can do this, but are scarce and expensive. If the cheap quadcopter or fixed wing drones could be modified to target GPS jamming signals in a cost-effective fashion, that would be a massive development.

Indeed it would be massive. We actually discussed this recently. I am actually amazed Ukraine hasn't done something already. A ground-based GPS jammer should be an easy target for a drone to home on.

[Goose]

Sounds like there is a strong need for a cheap, ubiquitous "home on jam" drone. I know HARM's can do this, but are scarce and expensive. If the cheap quadcopter or fixed wing drones could be modified to target GPS jamming signals in a cost-effective fashion, that would be a massive development.

Indeed it would be massive. We actually discussed this recently. I am actually amazed Ukraine hasn't done something already. A ground-based GPS jammer should be an easy target for a drone to home on.

[Leftcoast]

Re: Spanish Civil War

Yes, the tactics and territory gains aren't analagous but that's not what prompted my flashback to 88 years ago. (And no, I'm not THAT old!)

How about an aggressive authoritarian government (Spain/Germany/Italy) working out the kinks in their war machinery while the sympathetic but cautious Western democracies supported the other side half-heartedly and from arms length fearing escalation?  Guernica atrocities, Ebro, and the Siege of Madrid? Three plus years of brutal fighting that ended in victory for the authoritarian side and paved the way for a growingly bellicose and expansionist Germany and Italy?  All of which turned into the prelude for a future great powers conflict in Europe?  

As they say, history doesn't usually repeat itself but it often rhymes.

I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[Leftcoast]

Re: Spanish Civil War

Yes, the tactics and territory gains aren't analagous but that's not what prompted my flashback to 88 years ago. (And no, I'm not THAT old!)

How about an aggressive authoritarian government (Spain/Germany/Italy) working out the kinks in their war machinery while the sympathetic but cautious Western democracies supported the other side half-heartedly and from arms length fearing escalation?  Guernica atrocities, Ebro, and the Siege of Madrid? Three plus years of brutal fighting that ended in victory for the authoritarian side and paved the way for a growingly bellicose and expansionist Germany and Italy?  All of which turned into the prelude for a future great powers conflict in Europe?  

As they say, history doesn't usually repeat itself but it often rhymes.

I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[GK3]

Reports today state first F16's to arrive May 5 in Ukraine.  No infor in report as to whose planes would be in the group or whether the group is larger than 1.

[GK3]

Reports today state first F16's to arrive May 5 in Ukraine.  No infor in report as to whose planes would be in the group or whether the group is larger than 1.