(06-02-2023, 07:18 AM)GK3 Wrote: (06-02-2023, 06:59 AM)MiniBlueHawkCard Wrote: I haven't seen it posted here but Mathews is getting the ball today. Interesting on many different fronts. I can't say I agree with the decision but I am not up in arms over the decision. In the past few regionals Stanford has held back their ace. I am curious if there is a magic number from the Stanford offense that could turn this into a short outing to save some of Mathews for the back end of the regional. Either way, hopefully Quinn has a steady outing and gets some confidence back!
... I think I go with the decision as made, give Mathews the ball. I think winning this first game is really important for this team. ... If we win this one we have two chances to move on.
Recapping recent regionals:
2022 we opened with Dixon who had been our Saturday starter if not exactly #2 (given Matthews complicated role).
2021 we opened with Williams who had been our Saturday starter.
2019 we opened with Beck who had been our Friday starter/ace
2018 we opened with T. Beck who had been our Friday starter/ace
2017 we opened with Bubic who had been our Friday starter/ace (under Marquess)
Lost the 2017 and 2018 regionals, won 2019, 2021, 2022.
The key in a regional, particularly for a thin pitching staff, is to win the first
two games. That can get you through the regional in 3-4 games whereas if you lose either of the first two you'll have to get through 5. So, the choice is whatever gives you the best chance to win two.
I am fairly confortable with the Matthews-Dixon combination in the first two games. Dixon has been strong recently. His last three starts have been pretty good and he was great vs Arizona - a very tough offense.
Given Matthews' history, it does seem he is the most likely arm who could pitch a fair amount on Friday and then come back to pitch a fair amount Monday if necessary. That seems to be the primary advantage of using Matthews today. I also hope that if we get a big lead that Matthews gets pulled pretty early.
My big fear is connected to being traumatized by what happened last year to Williams. Williams first showed signs of trouble in the Pac 12 tournament, and then really deteriorated. Matthews showed worse signs of trouble in the Pac 12 tournament - what's next?
p.s. what does having two chances to move on mean?