[BostonCard]

Fun fact, 24 trillion gallons of water have fallen on California in late Dec and early Jan.

https://www.hcn.org/articles/south-landl...dium=email

BC

[BostonCard]

Fun fact, 24 trillion gallons of water have fallen on California in late Dec and early Jan.

https://www.hcn.org/articles/south-landl...dium=email

BC

[thatboy]

Lake Lag on Saturday (still full):

[thatboy]

Lake Lag on Saturday (still full):

[cardcrimson]

Beautiful!

[cardcrimson]

Beautiful!

[thatboy]

Beautiful!

I used to walk my dog there daily. I hadn't been there in a while. In the meantime someone (presumably Stanford) installed a new path made out of the same spongie (spongy?) material as a "sport court" between EBF and the beach/bbq corner near the old boat house. It's great. Unfortunately it doesn't go all the way around. That would be amazing for joggers if they could do that.

[thatboy]

Beautiful!

I used to walk my dog there daily. I hadn't been there in a while. In the meantime someone (presumably Stanford) installed a new path made out of the same spongie (spongy?) material as a "sport court" between EBF and the beach/bbq corner near the old boat house. It's great. Unfortunately it doesn't go all the way around. That would be amazing for joggers if they could do that.

[81alum]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

[81alum]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

[Mick]

[quote="threepointer" pid='378855' dateline='1673497531']

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

I've been monitoring water levels on the CDEC site for over 10 years.  I started doing this when I noticed the spectacular claims in the media were separated from reality.  

% of Capacity at this time of the year is interesting, but less important than % of Average for this date.  I have added those percentages to Mick's table (shown in red).  Keep in mind that when the snow pack starts to melt the high elevation reservoirs will fill up rapidly and put pressure on the downstream reservoirs.  Folsom, the state's 10 largest reservoir is a good example of this type of reservoir - it is at 404 feet above sea level.  It's purpose is to catch the snow melt and the massive amount of water flowing through the American river to prevent the historical flooding of the Sacramento basin.  Trinity is higher up at 2200 feet.  It is mostly filled with snow melt.  That is why it is at a low level of capacity in early January.

In 2017 the spillways of Oroville Dam failed and almost inundated Oroville.  it cost $1 billion to repair the damage.  In 2017 I started warning people that Oroville was filling up too fast - 3 weeks before the spillway failed.  At the rate Oroville was filling there was no way to release enough water fast enough.  They should have started earlier in the year.   For smaller reservoirs nearing or exceeding capacity is not such a big deal.  They can release a high % of their storage very quickly.  Oroville is a different story.  It is the second largest reservoir in California after Shasta with a capacity of 3.5 million acre fee.  That's 1.152 TRILLION gallons.

I have a fancy excel spreadsheet that I have crafted over the years with colorful conditional logic and macros.  I am quite proud of the output because you can tell at a glance where the system might be in trouble (over/under average and capacity).  I would post an image, but apparently you can't do it on this site.

As of this evening, the top 20 reservoirs were at 47% of Capacity and 81% of Average. My bet is that 100% of average will be exceeded in a few days.

Updated large reservoirs 1/30/23 Using threepointer's scale:  % of Average shown in red  after % of Capacity.

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 58% 64% / 105% 111%
Shasta, 53% 56% / 84% 87%
Pine Flat, 48% 52% / 126% 130%
San Luis, 46% 60% / 67%  81%.
New Melones, 38%  41% / 67%  70%
Trinity, 30% 31% / 48% 49%
Don Pedro, 75% 75% / 108% 106%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 56% 61% / 122% 128%
Berryessa, 65% 66% / 85% 85%
Almanor, 63% 63% / 102% 102%

[Mick]

[quote="threepointer" pid='378855' dateline='1673497531']

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

I've been monitoring water levels on the CDEC site for over 10 years.  I started doing this when I noticed the spectacular claims in the media were separated from reality.  

% of Capacity at this time of the year is interesting, but less important than % of Average for this date.  I have added those percentages to Mick's table (shown in red).  Keep in mind that when the snow pack starts to melt the high elevation reservoirs will fill up rapidly and put pressure on the downstream reservoirs.  Folsom, the state's 10 largest reservoir is a good example of this type of reservoir - it is at 404 feet above sea level.  It's purpose is to catch the snow melt and the massive amount of water flowing through the American river to prevent the historical flooding of the Sacramento basin.  Trinity is higher up at 2200 feet.  It is mostly filled with snow melt.  That is why it is at a low level of capacity in early January.

In 2017 the spillways of Oroville Dam failed and almost inundated Oroville.  it cost $1 billion to repair the damage.  In 2017 I started warning people that Oroville was filling up too fast - 3 weeks before the spillway failed.  At the rate Oroville was filling there was no way to release enough water fast enough.  They should have started earlier in the year.   For smaller reservoirs nearing or exceeding capacity is not such a big deal.  They can release a high % of their storage very quickly.  Oroville is a different story.  It is the second largest reservoir in California after Shasta with a capacity of 3.5 million acre fee.  That's 1.152 TRILLION gallons.

I have a fancy excel spreadsheet that I have crafted over the years with colorful conditional logic and macros.  I am quite proud of the output because you can tell at a glance where the system might be in trouble (over/under average and capacity).  I would post an image, but apparently you can't do it on this site.

As of this evening, the top 20 reservoirs were at 47% of Capacity and 81% of Average. My bet is that 100% of average will be exceeded in a few days.

Updated large reservoirs 1/30/23 Using threepointer's scale:  % of Average shown in red  after % of Capacity.

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 58% 64% / 105% 111%
Shasta, 53% 56% / 84% 87%
Pine Flat, 48% 52% / 126% 130%
San Luis, 46% 60% / 67%  81%.
New Melones, 38%  41% / 67%  70%
Trinity, 30% 31% / 48% 49%
Don Pedro, 75% 75% / 108% 106%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 56% 61% / 122% 128%
Berryessa, 65% 66% / 85% 85%
Almanor, 63% 63% / 102% 102%

[CompSci87]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Put the photos on some image sharing site. Thatboy used imgur.io. Then use img tags around the link.

[CompSci87]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Put the photos on some image sharing site. Thatboy used imgur.io. Then use img tags around the link.

[TonyLima]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Email me for tips.

[TonyLima]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Email me for tips.

[M T]

Unfortunately it doesn't go all the way around. That would be amazing for joggers if they could do that.

I hear there’s a lot of poison oak if you get off the trail

[M T]

Unfortunately it doesn't go all the way around. That would be amazing for joggers if they could do that.

I hear there’s a lot of poison oak if you get off the trail

[thatboy]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Put the photos on some image sharing site. Thatboy used imgur.io. Then use img tags around the link.

Exactly what CompSci87 wrote, though I actually used imgur.com instead of imgur.io (not sure if there's a difference; they seem to be the same company). Also, after adding your images to whichever image hosting site, you can then come back to the Cardboard and insert the link to those photos using the following feature, which inserts the tags that CompSci87 referred to:



Or just write the tags if you know how to do that.

[thatboy]

Thatboy, nice photos!  How do you post photos on the Cardboard?  I had some of the Lake from a couple of weeks ago, but while I can figure out how to post quotes and links, I haven't figured out photos yet.

Put the photos on some image sharing site. Thatboy used imgur.io. Then use img tags around the link.

Exactly what CompSci87 wrote, though I actually used imgur.com instead of imgur.io (not sure if there's a difference; they seem to be the same company). Also, after adding your images to whichever image hosting site, you can then come back to the Cardboard and insert the link to those photos using the following feature, which inserts the tags that CompSci87 referred to:



Or just write the tags if you know how to do that.

[newguy]

those pics bring back fond memories.
lived in Lagunita for three years.  spent a few friday nights on the lake on a raft drinking with friends.
good times.

[newguy]

those pics bring back fond memories.
lived in Lagunita for three years.  spent a few friday nights on the lake on a raft drinking with friends.
good times.

[Mick]

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

Reservoir capacity updated for 2/27 (using threepointer's scale) with % of Average to date:

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 73% / 116%
Shasta, 60% / 84%
Pine Flat, 54% 117%
San Luis, 76% / 95%.
New Melones, 46% / 76%
Trinity, 38% / 73%
Don Pedro, 76% / 104%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 68% / 131%
Berryessa, 67% / 83%
Almanor, 63% / 98%

Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 56% / 113% 
New Bullards, 82% / 117%
Diamond Valley, 60% / 81%
Friant, 45% / 71%
Isabella, 24% / 80%
Camanche, 71% / 116%
Warm Springs, 65% / 104%
New Hogan, 60% / 127%
Castaic, 54% / 67%
Clear Lake/Cache Creek, 67% / 86%

SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where a)
Hetch Hetchy, 80% / 132%
Calaveras, 90% / 175%
Del Valle, 52% / 114%
U San Leandro, 99% / 118%
San Pablo, 80% / 113%
Chabot, 91% / 105%
Briones, 80% / 113%
Clifton Court Forebay, 59%.

[Mick]

RESSW.pdf (ca.gov)

Reservoir capacity updated for 2/27 (using threepointer's scale) with % of Average to date:

Large (1 MM+ AF)
Oroville, 73% / 116%
Shasta, 60% / 84%
Pine Flat, 54% 117%
San Luis, 76% / 95%.
New Melones, 46% / 76%
Trinity, 38% / 73%
Don Pedro, 76% / 104%
New Exchequer/Lake McClure 68% / 131%
Berryessa, 67% / 83%
Almanor, 63% / 98%

Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 56% / 113% 
New Bullards, 82% / 117%
Diamond Valley, 60% / 81%
Friant, 45% / 71%
Isabella, 24% / 80%
Camanche, 71% / 116%
Warm Springs, 65% / 104%
New Hogan, 60% / 127%
Castaic, 54% / 67%
Clear Lake/Cache Creek, 67% / 86%

SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where a)
Hetch Hetchy, 80% / 132%
Calaveras, 90% / 175%
Del Valle, 52% / 114%
U San Leandro, 99% / 118%
San Pablo, 80% / 113%
Chabot, 91% / 105%
Briones, 80% / 113%
Clifton Court Forebay, 59%.

[Softball Fan]

Nice to see this thread back on the front page.  Here in SoCal we've been deluged with precipitation.   Pasadena got eight inches of rain in 48 hours.   Mountains surrounding LA Basin got seven feet of snow which broke records.

[Softball Fan]

Nice to see this thread back on the front page.  Here in SoCal we've been deluged with precipitation.   Pasadena got eight inches of rain in 48 hours.   Mountains surrounding LA Basin got seven feet of snow which broke records.

[Mick]

Drought is now over in more than half of California, including the Bay Area, according to the Feds.

Feds: Drought over in more than half of California, including Bay Area (mercurynews.com)

* Biggest Sierra snowpack in 30 years, 192% of historical average, highest March 1 reading since 1993.
* 49.1% of California is now classified as in a drought, compared with 84.6% last week.
* No part of California is now in at least a moderate drought. Last time that occurred was February, 2020

More snow & rain is expected across Northern California this weekend.

[Mick]

Drought is now over in more than half of California, including the Bay Area, according to the Feds.

Feds: Drought over in more than half of California, including Bay Area (mercurynews.com)

* Biggest Sierra snowpack in 30 years, 192% of historical average, highest March 1 reading since 1993.
* 49.1% of California is now classified as in a drought, compared with 84.6% last week.
* No part of California is now in at least a moderate drought. Last time that occurred was February, 2020

More snow & rain is expected across Northern California this weekend.

[81alum]

For anyone monitoring the snowpack:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action

[81alum]

For anyone monitoring the snowpack:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action

[cardcrimson]

Ruh-roh. Visions of Leland Stanford rowing home from his inauguration during the great flood of 1862. A one in five chance of some nasty flooding coming our way soon.


https://news.yahoo.com/warm-atmospheric-...-8amnga_NN

[cardcrimson]

Ruh-roh. Visions of Leland Stanford rowing home from his inauguration during the great flood of 1862. A one in five chance of some nasty flooding coming our way soon.


https://news.yahoo.com/warm-atmospheric-...-8amnga_NN

[M T]

While this wet winter resurrected the reservoirs (and probably the politicians who would get axed when California water woes drain the dregs),
it is going to be a total disaster in the fire seasons for many years.

I am currently in Sonora and see so many downed trees/branches from the weight of the snow.  Trees continue to grow big branches in years of normal snow, but when these heavy snow storms hit, many of those big branches become fuel for future fires.  I heard one resident say that he had been here since the 1940s and hadn't ever seen such snow.  (To be fair, snow in Sonora wasn't that bad, but just up the hill (at 3000') was much worse. And Sunday will be about the 2nd worst day in the past 2 weeks).

A conversation on Friday of two people trying to get together for an interview:  "It can't be at my house. My driveway is impassable and the regular entrance to the house is blocked by a down tree."  Response: "We've got 3' of snow on the ground and no power." (The snow ended Tuesday night.)  It isn't how deep the snow is, it is how much more than normal snow they got that weighed down the branches before it melted.

The snow will melt & fill the reservoirs, but that water won't do any good when fires flare in the Sierras in the dry dog days of 2025.

I've never heard of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, 100-year snowfalls, but maybe for estimating the resultant fire hazard, that would be useful.

FYI, at my hotel is a Red Cross vehicle and a number of PG&E trucks, servicing the problems from this past week & ready for this weekend.

[M T]

While this wet winter resurrected the reservoirs (and probably the politicians who would get axed when California water woes drain the dregs),
it is going to be a total disaster in the fire seasons for many years.

I am currently in Sonora and see so many downed trees/branches from the weight of the snow.  Trees continue to grow big branches in years of normal snow, but when these heavy snow storms hit, many of those big branches become fuel for future fires.  I heard one resident say that he had been here since the 1940s and hadn't ever seen such snow.  (To be fair, snow in Sonora wasn't that bad, but just up the hill (at 3000') was much worse. And Sunday will be about the 2nd worst day in the past 2 weeks).

A conversation on Friday of two people trying to get together for an interview:  "It can't be at my house. My driveway is impassable and the regular entrance to the house is blocked by a down tree."  Response: "We've got 3' of snow on the ground and no power." (The snow ended Tuesday night.)  It isn't how deep the snow is, it is how much more than normal snow they got that weighed down the branches before it melted.

The snow will melt & fill the reservoirs, but that water won't do any good when fires flare in the Sierras in the dry dog days of 2025.

I've never heard of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, 100-year snowfalls, but maybe for estimating the resultant fire hazard, that would be useful.

FYI, at my hotel is a Red Cross vehicle and a number of PG&E trucks, servicing the problems from this past week & ready for this weekend.

[81alum]

While this wet winter resurrected the reservoirs (and probably the politicians who would get axed when California water woes drain the dregs),
it is going to be a total disaster in the fire seasons for many years.

I am currently in Sonora and see so many downed trees/branches from the weight of the snow.  Trees continue to grow big branches in years of normal snow, but when these heavy snow storms hit, many of those big branches become fuel for future fires.  I heard one resident say that he had been here since the 1940s and hadn't ever seen such snow.  (To be fair, snow in Sonora wasn't that bad, but just up the hill (at 3000') was much worse. And Sunday will be about the 2nd worst day in the past 2 weeks).

A conversation on Friday of two people trying to get together for an interview:  "It can't be at my house. My driveway is impassable and the regular entrance to the house is blocked by a down tree."  Response: "We've got 3' of snow on the ground and no power." (The snow ended Tuesday night.)  It isn't how deep the snow is, it is how much more than normal snow they got that weighed down the branches before it melted.

The snow will melt & fill the reservoirs, but that water won't do any good when fires flare in the Sierras in the dry dog days of 2025.

I've never heard of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, 100-year snowfalls, but maybe for estimating the resultant fire hazard, that would be useful.

FYI, at my hotel is a Red Cross vehicle and a number of PG&E trucks, servicing the problems from this past week & ready for this weekend.

MT, are you a volunteer or a worker helping up there? It sounds like quite an ordeal.

As for branches coming down, yes.  I spend most of my summers backpacking in the Sierra, and often take along my brother, a retired fire ecologist.  While heavy snow can bring down branches and whole trees the worst damage is from wind.  Two years ago there were horrific wind storms that brought down trees like jackstraw--that happened in a bone dry winter.  One trail was completely obliterated for miles.  Last year when I returned to it they had cut it out, but the cut trees were stacked 15-20' high on both sides of the trail.  It was like walking through a lumberyard, about as high as the stacks of lumber at a Home Depot.

In general, my brother tells me, the climate zone in the Sierra is shifting north.  The area around Sonora is going to look a lot like the southern Sierra.  Many forests will not come back from fire, and if they do, they may have different species.  Trees are also shifting from growing on hillsides--which shed snow and allow saplings to grow--to valleys--which collect moisture and have the advantage in a drier climate.

Here is an advantage of a gargantuan snow year like this one--it will help to preserve many meadows.  Most of the meadows in the Sierra were reverting to forest since there had not been enough snow in them to crush the saplings that are always seeding in.  This year should help to set the forest back so the meadows can survive a while longer.  We should see a lot of broken small trees and saplings in the meadows, once the snow (eventually) melts.  40' of snow in some places is a lot for a small tree to bear.

Sadly, for me, I probably won't get to backpack much this year.  The snow is going to last into August, which is when I have to go back to teaching.  A small personal sacrifice but I won't feel bad about it if drought ends.

[81alum]

While this wet winter resurrected the reservoirs (and probably the politicians who would get axed when California water woes drain the dregs),
it is going to be a total disaster in the fire seasons for many years.

I am currently in Sonora and see so many downed trees/branches from the weight of the snow.  Trees continue to grow big branches in years of normal snow, but when these heavy snow storms hit, many of those big branches become fuel for future fires.  I heard one resident say that he had been here since the 1940s and hadn't ever seen such snow.  (To be fair, snow in Sonora wasn't that bad, but just up the hill (at 3000') was much worse. And Sunday will be about the 2nd worst day in the past 2 weeks).

A conversation on Friday of two people trying to get together for an interview:  "It can't be at my house. My driveway is impassable and the regular entrance to the house is blocked by a down tree."  Response: "We've got 3' of snow on the ground and no power." (The snow ended Tuesday night.)  It isn't how deep the snow is, it is how much more than normal snow they got that weighed down the branches before it melted.

The snow will melt & fill the reservoirs, but that water won't do any good when fires flare in the Sierras in the dry dog days of 2025.

I've never heard of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, 100-year snowfalls, but maybe for estimating the resultant fire hazard, that would be useful.

FYI, at my hotel is a Red Cross vehicle and a number of PG&E trucks, servicing the problems from this past week & ready for this weekend.

MT, are you a volunteer or a worker helping up there? It sounds like quite an ordeal.

As for branches coming down, yes.  I spend most of my summers backpacking in the Sierra, and often take along my brother, a retired fire ecologist.  While heavy snow can bring down branches and whole trees the worst damage is from wind.  Two years ago there were horrific wind storms that brought down trees like jackstraw--that happened in a bone dry winter.  One trail was completely obliterated for miles.  Last year when I returned to it they had cut it out, but the cut trees were stacked 15-20' high on both sides of the trail.  It was like walking through a lumberyard, about as high as the stacks of lumber at a Home Depot.

In general, my brother tells me, the climate zone in the Sierra is shifting north.  The area around Sonora is going to look a lot like the southern Sierra.  Many forests will not come back from fire, and if they do, they may have different species.  Trees are also shifting from growing on hillsides--which shed snow and allow saplings to grow--to valleys--which collect moisture and have the advantage in a drier climate.

Here is an advantage of a gargantuan snow year like this one--it will help to preserve many meadows.  Most of the meadows in the Sierra were reverting to forest since there had not been enough snow in them to crush the saplings that are always seeding in.  This year should help to set the forest back so the meadows can survive a while longer.  We should see a lot of broken small trees and saplings in the meadows, once the snow (eventually) melts.  40' of snow in some places is a lot for a small tree to bear.

Sadly, for me, I probably won't get to backpack much this year.  The snow is going to last into August, which is when I have to go back to teaching.  A small personal sacrifice but I won't feel bad about it if drought ends.

[82lsju]

DWR’s electronic readings from 130 snow sensors placed throughout the state indicate the statewide snowpack’s snow water equivalent is 44.7 inches, or 190 percent of average for this date.

Although the statewide snowpack is currently just behind the record snow year of 1982-83, the snowpack varies considerably by region. The Southern Sierra snowpack is currently 209 percent of its April 1 average and the Central Sierra is at 175 percent of its April 1 average. However, the critical Northern Sierra, where the state’s largest surface water reservoirs are located, is at 136 percent of its April 1 average. 

https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/...now-Survey

[82lsju]

DWR’s electronic readings from 130 snow sensors placed throughout the state indicate the statewide snowpack’s snow water equivalent is 44.7 inches, or 190 percent of average for this date.

Although the statewide snowpack is currently just behind the record snow year of 1982-83, the snowpack varies considerably by region. The Southern Sierra snowpack is currently 209 percent of its April 1 average and the Central Sierra is at 175 percent of its April 1 average. However, the critical Northern Sierra, where the state’s largest surface water reservoirs are located, is at 136 percent of its April 1 average. 

https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/...now-Survey

[cardcrimson]

The next ten days should be interesting. A little more rain and snow through Thursday, then a very large, warm storm Thursday night and Friday, followed by several smaller ones over the following week.. If the snow levels are 8000 feet as predicted, we could expect a brobdingnagian runoff. Not good.

[cardcrimson]

The next ten days should be interesting. A little more rain and snow through Thursday, then a very large, warm storm Thursday night and Friday, followed by several smaller ones over the following week.. If the snow levels are 8000 feet as predicted, we could expect a brobdingnagian runoff. Not good.