[ca245]

Jones, Brink, and Jump scored 63 of our 74 points. Rest of team scored 11 points. More points from ROT would be great.

[ca245]

Jones, Brink, and Jump scored 63 of our 74 points. Rest of team scored 11 points. More points from ROT would be great.

[stopandpop]

Kudos to Haley Jones for continued excellent rebounding and for improved shooting (10 for 17, and no treys attempted). With all her drives to the hoop, curiously only 4 assists. Should finish if the lane is open or dish if it's clogged, to Jump or someone else.

Must keep up the improved shooting for Stanford to beat top-caliber teams.

This was one of those rare games when our 2 All-Americans had dominant games ON THE SAME NIGHT.  Usually it's one or the other.  When they can feed off each other more consistently, we will be much more difficult to defeat.

Cam picked up at least one offensive foul, plowing into another player near the rim.  Depending on the officiating, those moves to the basket can be spectacular, but also problematic.  One way Cam can elevate her game is (sometimes), driving, but pulling up for a short jump shot.  In the WNBA, she will have to become proficient at this, anyway, so why not start now.

Totally agree about Prechtel defending Pili.  Fran also came in (4th. quarter), and was very effective defensively, being physical, deflecting passes, etc. One of the better defensive efforts overall I've seen us play in a while.

[stopandpop]

Kudos to Haley Jones for continued excellent rebounding and for improved shooting (10 for 17, and no treys attempted). With all her drives to the hoop, curiously only 4 assists. Should finish if the lane is open or dish if it's clogged, to Jump or someone else.

Must keep up the improved shooting for Stanford to beat top-caliber teams.

This was one of those rare games when our 2 All-Americans had dominant games ON THE SAME NIGHT.  Usually it's one or the other.  When they can feed off each other more consistently, we will be much more difficult to defeat.

Cam picked up at least one offensive foul, plowing into another player near the rim.  Depending on the officiating, those moves to the basket can be spectacular, but also problematic.  One way Cam can elevate her game is (sometimes), driving, but pulling up for a short jump shot.  In the WNBA, she will have to become proficient at this, anyway, so why not start now.

Totally agree about Prechtel defending Pili.  Fran also came in (4th. quarter), and was very effective defensively, being physical, deflecting passes, etc. One of the better defensive efforts overall I've seen us play in a while.

[BostonCard]

I really don't like the Utah style, I think they play dirty. Physical play is okay, but there were nasty fouls and illegal screens all game long. And the refs seemed to be more interested in keeping the foul numbers even than in accurately calling the game.

I thought individually Stanford was substantially more skilled than Utah and Utah didn't have anyone who could guard Brink.  Utah probably felt they had to play physical to have a chance.   But, of course, I agree they should not play dirty if that's what they did.

When it’s us doing it, we call it “intellectual brutality”.

BC

[BostonCard]

I really don't like the Utah style, I think they play dirty. Physical play is okay, but there were nasty fouls and illegal screens all game long. And the refs seemed to be more interested in keeping the foul numbers even than in accurately calling the game.

I thought individually Stanford was substantially more skilled than Utah and Utah didn't have anyone who could guard Brink.  Utah probably felt they had to play physical to have a chance.   But, of course, I agree they should not play dirty if that's what they did.

When it’s us doing it, we call it “intellectual brutality”.

BC

[qwerty49]

Really encouraging to see Nivar and Harriel step up so nicely.

Was it just me or did Utah seem undersized in the paint? Haley just seemed to be leaping over them so easily.

Pili is no doubt a great player but her super-physical style makes it hard to be a fan. Elbows, hips, shoulders, flying everywhere and heaven help a defender who catches one of those. 

We started out pretty flat again. But at least Jump was able to get some daylight.

[qwerty49]

Really encouraging to see Nivar and Harriel step up so nicely.

Was it just me or did Utah seem undersized in the paint? Haley just seemed to be leaping over them so easily.

Pili is no doubt a great player but her super-physical style makes it hard to be a fan. Elbows, hips, shoulders, flying everywhere and heaven help a defender who catches one of those. 

We started out pretty flat again. But at least Jump was able to get some daylight.

[martyup]

Against Cal and USC, we played with complacency.  We took bad shots or made bad passes early in the shot clock.  Or, we stood around and watched Haley dribble.  Jump parked herself in the corner and watched.  We weren't patient on offense, not really attempting to run good plays for open shots.  On the other hand, we played good defense in those games.

Against UCLA and Utah, we played with urgency on both ends of the court.  Jump was moving around the court.  We waited for good shots.  Haley didn't try to hit 3 point baskets.  Cam only shot one 3 and made it.

To me, it all boils down to mental motivation.  I don't think any team in the Pac-12 has more talent than Stanford.  But any team can beat Stanford if we are complacent.  

I even chalk our overtime loss to SC to complacency.  We had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter and then only scored 7 points in the 4th.  We were handling SC up to that point.  I think our team thought they had it in the bag and lowered their sense of urgency.

IMO, if we don't win the NC it won't be because we played a better team with more talent.  It will be because we didn't play smart and with urgency.

[martyup]

Against Cal and USC, we played with complacency.  We took bad shots or made bad passes early in the shot clock.  Or, we stood around and watched Haley dribble.  Jump parked herself in the corner and watched.  We weren't patient on offense, not really attempting to run good plays for open shots.  On the other hand, we played good defense in those games.

Against UCLA and Utah, we played with urgency on both ends of the court.  Jump was moving around the court.  We waited for good shots.  Haley didn't try to hit 3 point baskets.  Cam only shot one 3 and made it.

To me, it all boils down to mental motivation.  I don't think any team in the Pac-12 has more talent than Stanford.  But any team can beat Stanford if we are complacent.  

I even chalk our overtime loss to SC to complacency.  We had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter and then only scored 7 points in the 4th.  We were handling SC up to that point.  I think our team thought they had it in the bag and lowered their sense of urgency.

IMO, if we don't win the NC it won't be because we played a better team with more talent.  It will be because we didn't play smart and with urgency.

[TheFarm07]

Against Cal and USC, we played with complacency.  We took bad shots or made bad passes early in the shot clock.  Or, we stood around and watched Haley dribble.  Jump parked herself in the corner and watched.  We weren't patient on offense, not really attempting to run good plays for open shots.  On the other hand, we played good defense in those games.

Against UCLA and Utah, we played with urgency on both ends of the court.  Jump was moving around the court.  We waited for good shots.  Haley didn't try to hit 3 point baskets.  Cam only shot one 3 and made it.

To me, it all boils down to mental motivation.  I don't think any team in the Pac-12 has more talent than Stanford.  But any team can beat Stanford if we are complacent.  

I even chalk our overtime loss to SC to complacency.  We had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter and then only scored 7 points in the 4th.  We were handling SC up to that point.  I think our team thought they had it in the bag and lowered their sense of urgency.

IMO, if we don't win the NC it won't be because we played a better team with more talent.  It will be because we didn't play smart and with urgency.

I agree; collectively, we have the talent and the accompanying ceiling to win the natty, so it comes to executing down the stretch (both within games and in the last half of the season heading into the postseason and tourney time).

I think our defense is good to handle anyone. When we've lost or struggled, it's because our offense has lost its way, not because a team scored 90 on us. 

Look at the points total of the teams who have beaten us the last two years (USC: 55, South Carolina: 76 (but that was in OT, they only scored 61 in regulation), UConn: 63, South Carolina: 65, South Florida: 57, Texas: 61). Except for this year's OT loss to South Carolina, no one reached 70 to beat us.

It's our offense that is largely the culprit when we've lost. The weakness we have is that our guard play is not as strong as other teams and what we've had in recent years esp. when Kiana was still here.

[TheFarm07]

Against Cal and USC, we played with complacency.  We took bad shots or made bad passes early in the shot clock.  Or, we stood around and watched Haley dribble.  Jump parked herself in the corner and watched.  We weren't patient on offense, not really attempting to run good plays for open shots.  On the other hand, we played good defense in those games.

Against UCLA and Utah, we played with urgency on both ends of the court.  Jump was moving around the court.  We waited for good shots.  Haley didn't try to hit 3 point baskets.  Cam only shot one 3 and made it.

To me, it all boils down to mental motivation.  I don't think any team in the Pac-12 has more talent than Stanford.  But any team can beat Stanford if we are complacent.  

I even chalk our overtime loss to SC to complacency.  We had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter and then only scored 7 points in the 4th.  We were handling SC up to that point.  I think our team thought they had it in the bag and lowered their sense of urgency.

IMO, if we don't win the NC it won't be because we played a better team with more talent.  It will be because we didn't play smart and with urgency.

I agree; collectively, we have the talent and the accompanying ceiling to win the natty, so it comes to executing down the stretch (both within games and in the last half of the season heading into the postseason and tourney time).

I think our defense is good to handle anyone. When we've lost or struggled, it's because our offense has lost its way, not because a team scored 90 on us. 

Look at the points total of the teams who have beaten us the last two years (USC: 55, South Carolina: 76 (but that was in OT, they only scored 61 in regulation), UConn: 63, South Carolina: 65, South Florida: 57, Texas: 61). Except for this year's OT loss to South Carolina, no one reached 70 to beat us.

It's our offense that is largely the culprit when we've lost. The weakness we have is that our guard play is not as strong as other teams and what we've had in recent years esp. when Kiana was still here.

[81alum]

I put these on the the wrong thread, so here they are on the right one:

Stanford Women's Basketball: Utah Postgame Press Conference - YouTube

No. 8 Utah at No. 4 Stanford | Pac-12 | 1.20.23 - YouTube

---

At 16:55 on that highlight reel, CTT makes an interesting comment right after Jones hit a mid range jumper from the free throw line. 

"Utah's gotta switch that screen.  Both Hannah and Haley are killing them with that little mid jumper off that low on-ball screen."

That is the adjustment Tara made, I think, and CTT's insight really helped me to see something I had entirely missed.  Why was Jump in the first half effective but not so much in the second?  Because, when they started to clamp down on her, we just used Jones in her place on the same play.  The screen was set by Brink at the elbow and either Jump or Jones just curls around her to take the free throw line shot.  The mid range jumper we all talked so much about in the wake of the SC loss.

---

At 17:51 you can see a Prechtel block from behind of a Pili layup attempt.  It led to Nivar's only basket, a gorgeous reverse layup at the other end.

[81alum]

I put these on the the wrong thread, so here they are on the right one:

Stanford Women's Basketball: Utah Postgame Press Conference - YouTube

No. 8 Utah at No. 4 Stanford | Pac-12 | 1.20.23 - YouTube

---

At 16:55 on that highlight reel, CTT makes an interesting comment right after Jones hit a mid range jumper from the free throw line. 

"Utah's gotta switch that screen.  Both Hannah and Haley are killing them with that little mid jumper off that low on-ball screen."

That is the adjustment Tara made, I think, and CTT's insight really helped me to see something I had entirely missed.  Why was Jump in the first half effective but not so much in the second?  Because, when they started to clamp down on her, we just used Jones in her place on the same play.  The screen was set by Brink at the elbow and either Jump or Jones just curls around her to take the free throw line shot.  The mid range jumper we all talked so much about in the wake of the SC loss.

---

At 17:51 you can see a Prechtel block from behind of a Pili layup attempt.  It led to Nivar's only basket, a gorgeous reverse layup at the other end.

[BostonCard]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

[BostonCard]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

[81alum]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

I agree, BC.  The loss was not just about players having an off day.  USC had a defensive game plan, based largely on what Arizona, Cal, and UCLA had tried to do, that they had the personnel to execute perfectly.  The loss was largely schematic, and I have to give Gottlieb credit I thought she would never deserve.

[81alum]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

I agree, BC.  The loss was not just about players having an off day.  USC had a defensive game plan, based largely on what Arizona, Cal, and UCLA had tried to do, that they had the personnel to execute perfectly.  The loss was largely schematic, and I have to give Gottlieb credit I thought she would never deserve.

[qwerty49]

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

Sorry BC you lost me with the triple negative. What exactly do you mean?

[qwerty49]

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough.

BC

Sorry BC you lost me with the triple negative. What exactly do you mean?

[BostonCard]

I might have lost myself too.  I think it would be a tight game between South Carolina and Stanford if both teams brought their A game, and I would probably give South Carolina the edge.

We should stop pretending that we can win every game if we just stopped being complacent.

BC

[BostonCard]

I might have lost myself too.  I think it would be a tight game between South Carolina and Stanford if both teams brought their A game, and I would probably give South Carolina the edge.

We should stop pretending that we can win every game if we just stopped being complacent.

BC

[jonnyss]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough. 

BC

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 

to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.

and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 

and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.

so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

[jonnyss]

The other teams have a say too, and the teams that we’ve lost to have had really good defenses.

Yeah, bad games by our stars (for example by Jump, Jones, and Brink against USC) is part of it, but USC had a defensive game plan and executed it well.

I think if we play our A game, we can be competitive with anyone, but I’m not certain that there aren’t a handful of other teams (USC, Connecticut when at full strength, and maybe one or two others), who if they played their A game would still not have enough. 

BC

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 

to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.

and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 

and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.

so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

[81alum]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

[81alum]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

[BostonCard]

I’d say right now our odds of winning the title are around 1 in 10.  Better than anyone not named South Carolina, but still a long shot.

BC

[BostonCard]

I’d say right now our odds of winning the title are around 1 in 10.  Better than anyone not named South Carolina, but still a long shot.

BC

[2006alum]

Finally had a chance to watch the Utah game and generally liked what I saw. A few scattered thoughts:

-Mid-Range Jumpers: First and foremost, wow, was Tara reading this forum? Each of Brink, Jump, and Jones hit those early, and Jones and Jump hit them often, and it really opened up our offense. No idea why we didn't try that more against USC, but I'm glad to see it's very much in our repertoire, and hopefully will remain part of our standard offensive sets.  

-Bench: While I agree we need to get more production from our bench, my general impression was that almost all our plays were set up to get the ball to Brink, Jones, or Jump, so other than Nivar, Emma-Nnopu, and Belibi (who's a "bench" player in name only), the rest of the bench took a total of 3 shots. Hard to have much to say about the bench when they basically weren't asked to do much, offensively.

-Lepolo/Nivar: I'm really hopeful Lepolo's injury was minor and she'll be back ASAP, but I was encouraged by how Nivar acquitted herself. Her shots were not falling, and a 1-7 shooting % will not cut it over the long term, but she's a playmaker, has great court vision and ball handling, and doesn't seem intimidated. I feel like we'll see a lot of her today against Colorado, because her style matches up well against Colorado's very physical, gritty, pressuring play style.

-Jones. As usual, she matches up best against teams where their size can't take away her inside game, and Utah's not an especially post-heavy team, so she had a field day inside. I suspect it won't be as easy given how physical Colorado is, coupled with their greater size inside.


This team vs. 2020-21: I actually don't know that I think we're that much worse off than we were then -- I just think we caught lightning in a bottle, and several other teams (UConn when not depleted with injuries, and SCAR) are better than they were two seasons ago. I do agree that Williams is a brobdingnagian loss for us, but as jonnyss noted, she was not her usual self during our run. And although we don't have Lexlie Hull, the fifth starter was Wilson, and as much as I appreciated Wilson, I would already say Lepolo adds more to our team than Wilson did. (And Jump was essentially a non-presence during our Final Four games, so in that sense, she's apples and oranges today as compared to two seasons ago.) 

To me, the major question is whether we want a second true big starting alongside Brink: at the beginning of the season, Iriafen seemed like an obvious answer, but against Utah, we went with essentially four guards and Brink most of the time, and that seemed to work pretty well (admittedly, it was also the obvious choice given their lack of size and outside shooting ability).

For all the talent we have in the post, though, none has been a consistent offensive producer apart from Brink - Iriafen, Belibi, and Prechtel have each had moments, and they each have different strengths and weaknesses as a post player, but none is so compelling as to obviously deserve a starting position. (Iriafen is the closest, and she's still very productive when the ball is in her hands, but her scoring seems to have trailed off along with her now mostly MIA midrange jumper.) The problem if we don't go with a second big is who the third true guard should be - while Emma-NNopu brings a ton of energy, length, and defensive prowess, she just can't seem to find the basketball, and coupled with Lepolo, who still is a little shot-shy, that leaves us with two not-especially-scoring minded players...

So I guess the main difficulty is that our team has many more options than it did two seasons ago, but perhaps a less obvious starting five than we had then, which I suspect is what's causing our angst.

[2006alum]

Finally had a chance to watch the Utah game and generally liked what I saw. A few scattered thoughts:

-Mid-Range Jumpers: First and foremost, wow, was Tara reading this forum? Each of Brink, Jump, and Jones hit those early, and Jones and Jump hit them often, and it really opened up our offense. No idea why we didn't try that more against USC, but I'm glad to see it's very much in our repertoire, and hopefully will remain part of our standard offensive sets.  

-Bench: While I agree we need to get more production from our bench, my general impression was that almost all our plays were set up to get the ball to Brink, Jones, or Jump, so other than Nivar, Emma-Nnopu, and Belibi (who's a "bench" player in name only), the rest of the bench took a total of 3 shots. Hard to have much to say about the bench when they basically weren't asked to do much, offensively.

-Lepolo/Nivar: I'm really hopeful Lepolo's injury was minor and she'll be back ASAP, but I was encouraged by how Nivar acquitted herself. Her shots were not falling, and a 1-7 shooting % will not cut it over the long term, but she's a playmaker, has great court vision and ball handling, and doesn't seem intimidated. I feel like we'll see a lot of her today against Colorado, because her style matches up well against Colorado's very physical, gritty, pressuring play style.

-Jones. As usual, she matches up best against teams where their size can't take away her inside game, and Utah's not an especially post-heavy team, so she had a field day inside. I suspect it won't be as easy given how physical Colorado is, coupled with their greater size inside.


This team vs. 2020-21: I actually don't know that I think we're that much worse off than we were then -- I just think we caught lightning in a bottle, and several other teams (UConn when not depleted with injuries, and SCAR) are better than they were two seasons ago. I do agree that Williams is a brobdingnagian loss for us, but as jonnyss noted, she was not her usual self during our run. And although we don't have Lexlie Hull, the fifth starter was Wilson, and as much as I appreciated Wilson, I would already say Lepolo adds more to our team than Wilson did. (And Jump was essentially a non-presence during our Final Four games, so in that sense, she's apples and oranges today as compared to two seasons ago.) 

To me, the major question is whether we want a second true big starting alongside Brink: at the beginning of the season, Iriafen seemed like an obvious answer, but against Utah, we went with essentially four guards and Brink most of the time, and that seemed to work pretty well (admittedly, it was also the obvious choice given their lack of size and outside shooting ability).

For all the talent we have in the post, though, none has been a consistent offensive producer apart from Brink - Iriafen, Belibi, and Prechtel have each had moments, and they each have different strengths and weaknesses as a post player, but none is so compelling as to obviously deserve a starting position. (Iriafen is the closest, and she's still very productive when the ball is in her hands, but her scoring seems to have trailed off along with her now mostly MIA midrange jumper.) The problem if we don't go with a second big is who the third true guard should be - while Emma-NNopu brings a ton of energy, length, and defensive prowess, she just can't seem to find the basketball, and coupled with Lepolo, who still is a little shot-shy, that leaves us with two not-especially-scoring minded players...

So I guess the main difficulty is that our team has many more options than it did two seasons ago, but perhaps a less obvious starting five than we had then, which I suspect is what's causing our angst.

[TheFarm07]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

I would put an addendum on your analysis regarding Kiana in that though I agree especially in the last two rounds, she struggled, her ability to create off the bounce and hit some clutch & difficult shots were crucial in key moments, especially when the shot clock was winding down. She was able to be a threat on all three levels (3-pointers, midrange, and drives to the basket). Even her ability to survey the situation and then just go for the three can be a critical additional offensive element that we really don't have now.

Defenses had to respect her and that allowed Jones, Lexie and Brink more room to operate.

[TheFarm07]

when we won the national championship 2 years ago, we had 3 all-americans (haley, cam, kiana) plus a wnba first-rounder (lexie) plus hannah. right now we have 2 plus hannah. 3 of our top players are the same, but losing kiana and lexie is a big deal as both could create their own shot. talana and indya are fine point guards, especially for freshmen, but they are not kiana. agnes is a fine player, similar to lexie in hustle, defense, and drive to the basket, but she is not going to score 20+ points like lexie. ashten and fran remain; kiki is a fine player and lauren has promise; but we don't play 5 posts at the same time. 



to go far in the tournament, we likely need cam and haley to be not just better than 2 years ago, but as dominant as they were against utah.



and dominant every game. it's possible never to have an off-night, but rare. eg last tournament we had a single off night, against uconn. but one off night and you're out. 



and we'll need some good fortune. both 2021 final-4 games were toss-ups.  we had lost the 2 previous final-4 toss-ups (old dominion and texas a&m). so we are exactly 50% in toss-up final-four matches in the last 25 years - exactly what the odds would predict.



so i'm enjoying this once-a-generation opportunity to see haley and cam together.

I generally agree with your analysis.  However, we should not forget that Kiana was not her usual self during our championship run.  She had been worn down from overuse going into the NCAAs, and her production had waned.  Her overall ppg had gone down a little in her senior year and actually dropped below what she did sophomore and junior years.  Here are her point totals for her last seven games:

26 UCLA Pac 12 championship game
20 First round
13 Second round
16 Third round
14 Louisville
8 South Carolina
5 Arizona

I loved Kiana and she was a very important piece of our national championship puzzle, but she wore down and frankly she struggled when she came up against top defenders like Aari McDonald and the Cooke/Henderson duo that South Carolina had.  For several games leading up to the championship there was much concern on this board, and in the press, that Williams was not her old self and that winning a championship might not be possible without her production improving.  It didn't, and we won anyway.  Of course, I think those two 50/50 games would have broken wide open had Williams been at her best. 

But that is the way of it.  Sometimes a very good player "goes off" and becomes as unstoppable as the best superstar.  Sometimes a superstar has a bad night or a bad matchup.  You need depth to be prepared for those situations.  We do have that, but I agree that we lack a superstar small guard which would make a natty so much easier, but not impossible.

I would put an addendum on your analysis regarding Kiana in that though I agree especially in the last two rounds, she struggled, her ability to create off the bounce and hit some clutch & difficult shots were crucial in key moments, especially when the shot clock was winding down. She was able to be a threat on all three levels (3-pointers, midrange, and drives to the basket). Even her ability to survey the situation and then just go for the three can be a critical additional offensive element that we really don't have now.

Defenses had to respect her and that allowed Jones, Lexie and Brink more room to operate.

[TheWildJacko]

In the 2021 national semis vs. SC, Kiana only had 8 points. However, she also had 3 assists and a steal, and 0 turnovers. And her final shot was with just over 2 min left in the game, to put us up by 3. On our next play, she assisted on a Cameron Brink layup to put us up 5. So she made two plays late in the game to extend our lead.

In the finals vs. AZ, Kiana made only 2 shots, both in the first half, and had 6 turnovers to 3 assists. Two of those assists were in the first half, and she mostly disappeared or made mental errors in the 2nd half. However, her third assist was to Haley Jones on our final basket, a 3-point play that put us up 4.

So in both of our Final Four games, at the end when it mattered most, Kiana made plays that put us up just enough to win. In two games decided by one point each, she had the mental fortitude to keep her head up, play through her struggles and run the offense, and that led us to the title.

[TheWildJacko]

In the 2021 national semis vs. SC, Kiana only had 8 points. However, she also had 3 assists and a steal, and 0 turnovers. And her final shot was with just over 2 min left in the game, to put us up by 3. On our next play, she assisted on a Cameron Brink layup to put us up 5. So she made two plays late in the game to extend our lead.

In the finals vs. AZ, Kiana made only 2 shots, both in the first half, and had 6 turnovers to 3 assists. Two of those assists were in the first half, and she mostly disappeared or made mental errors in the 2nd half. However, her third assist was to Haley Jones on our final basket, a 3-point play that put us up 4.

So in both of our Final Four games, at the end when it mattered most, Kiana made plays that put us up just enough to win. In two games decided by one point each, she had the mental fortitude to keep her head up, play through her struggles and run the offense, and that led us to the title.