(04-15-2024, 12:05 PM)CTcard Wrote: (04-14-2024, 04:22 PM)d4cohn Wrote: ... I know we want to keep NiJaree's innings and pitch count down, but RPI and record wise, losing to Oregon State is a bad loss. ... getting that top 8 seed is critical for making it back to OKC.
Of course keeping NiJaree's innings down means not pitching her against somebody. OSU would have seemed like a reasonable choice.
Losing to OSU is a bad loss generically (though losing to RPI #78 OSU on the road is not as bad as losing to RPI #91 Sac St at home).
However, for RPI purposes it doesn't matter in particular who one loses to. It does matter who one plays, and overall record, but trading a win vs good team/loss vs bad team for the inverse doesn't change the RPI.
A top 8 seed is important. At the moment, Stanford stands at #3 in RPI. It appears they're likely very close to #4 Duke as Warren Nolan has them inverted. However, Stanford likely has a little room over #9 Tennessee (including a head to head win). Also, it's probably important that they have some clearance from RPI #16 UCLA as top team in the west. Taking 2/3 in the upcoming series with UCLA would help a lot in keeping a position as a top 8 seed.
I totally understand many of these points. Some thoughts:
1) Stanford needed one out with a runner on second. OSU didn't get the ball out of the infield against Canady in 5 innings of work on Friday. At most, it was one inning (likely just one batter) to seal a sweep.
2) There were other instances earlier in the year (a 7-0 game against Cal comes to mind among others) where we could have brought in a reliever and taken out NiJaree and saved multiple innings of work. As a general principle, having our best pitchers pitch the highest leverage situations leads to the most wins. Granted, given the quality of opponent, maybe even the bottom of the 7th inning against OSU doesn't count as high leverage, but there were innings/games NiJaree pitched that were even lower leverage in comparison to yesterday. And as we saw yesterday, Pac-12 competition is tough and the margins are small. I think Kylie is a great player, but I think her more effective position is as a hitter as opposed to a pitcher, at least against Pac-12 level competition. It is like, Madison Bumgarner was a *great* hitting pitcher, but would Bochy pinch hit him in a one run game in the bottom of the ninth with other potential options available?
3) In turn, if we are not going to pitch NiJaree at all, even to get one out, and potentially risk losing that game to OSU, why didn't we wholesale rest our other starters (Aly Kaneshiro and all those innings behind the plate come to mind)? Pitchers obviously need innings off the most, but catchers and other field positions could use innings/whole games off too.
4) The topline RPI number matters, but the committee will create a grid, by quadrant/tier of opponent, and list out your wins and losses against that quadrant/tier. Also, regarding getting that top 8 seed, we only have to look to last season, when Stanford became the first school in perhaps even the Super Regional era to have a top 4 RPI and *not* get a top 8 seed (and every year's committee is different in whether they prioritize good wins, bad losses etc., so the seeding assignments can be, let me generously say subjective). We ultimately made the WCWS last year anyway, but going on the road to Duke is a different environment than having to go, for example, to an SEC school and win a Super Regional. However, in perhaps the most infamous seeding decision, when Coach Allister was at Minnesota, the team was ranked #1 in the nation in multiple polls and ultimately didn't even get to host a regional (they were sent to Tuscaloosa and promptly lost the regional). That offseason, Coach Allister took the Stanford job.
5) I guess, ironically enough with the Sac State game you mentioned, was NiJaree relieved Kylie (in a tied game) and actually gave up a run and we lost 3-2. So I think that experience actually could have factored into Coach Allister's thinking.
Let's go win the series against LA this weekend!