(03-26-2026, 09:14 PM)rogpodge Wrote: Even if Pritchard is an average coach, the idea is that Taylor's teams were underperforming the talent, which I think is what Bill C. is intimating. I didn't want to go negative immediately, but I think that's the main takeaway.
His teams were underperforming the long-run (20 year) average, not the inherent talent.
Quote:Last summer, I fiddled with a concept for statistically evaluating coaches by comparing their output -- using SP+ ratings -- to what their employers had accomplished over the 20 years prior. Considering this approach named Nick Saban, Chris Petersen and Kirby Smart as the best coaches of the past 20 years, I figured I was probably getting somewhere. But Indiana's 2025 performance gave us something new to look at with this approach. As it turns out, looking at a team's recent performances compared to that same 20-year baseline also provides a nice input to add to my offseason SP+ projections. Let's dive in.
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I've really enjoyed this approach to coach ratings as it pertains to looking backwards at recent performances, but as it turns out, looking at schools' performance versus long-term baseline averages can tell us quite a bit looking forward, too.
I'm not to a point where I feel comfortable plugging a specific coach's name into SP+ projections -- for instance, applying a certain bump to any school coached by Cignetti, Sumrall, et cetera. But this year's SP+ projections will feature adjustments for teams that made coaching changes after either over- or underachieving against its historical baseline by a solid amount. Who might that affect? Let's take a look.
Not surprising that with a couple of years of bad seasons, Taylor looks bad compared to a 20-year baseline that included some historically good Stanford teams (at least for Stanford), which Connolly points out when Stanford “looks good” by his analysis.
Quote:The Cardinal make the list because their 20-year average still includes the eight-year run of awesomeness (2008-15) produced by Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw. They've ranked 93rd or worse in SP+ for five straight years, so I'm a little more skeptical of a jump here.
And of course the years of badness have coincided with changes in the sport, specifically the NIL and transfer portal combo and (more recently) the change in conference. I am happy to see the back of Taylor, but I am skeptical that a mere coaching change will fix things. I think we have to face that this is the “new normal”, and while I hope we will have periodic bursts of adequacy, I think the Harbaugh/early Shaw years are unlikely to be repeated, no matter the coach.
BC
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