(06-16-2026, 08:43 PM)82lsju Wrote: And yes the SAT is an indicator of potential success in college, given the current environment and inclination to have objective measures for who gets admitted to colleges I can see it becoming more important than it was back in the day.
Things definitely changed in those eleven years. They have changed even more subsequently, where actual paid tutors and classes are commonplace for those that can afford them and have parents that are willing/eager/able to have students take them. This extra tutelage does make a difference empirically.
I am interested in the idea that these test scores will be come "more important". My experience was that they were controlling back in the mid to late 60s. The high school councilors had a book listing each institution of higher learning and its requirements. There was an SAT range and/or a ACT range. If you were not in that range, you didn't bother to apply. No point in it. It was a hard and fast rule. Had that changed by 1977?
(06-16-2026, 11:07 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: From my recollection, standardized test results, combined with GPA, is the best predictor of college success. Particularly as a flagship public school system, UC's should aim to admit the students who are best equipped to handle the workload, graduate, and go on to be productive Californians.
When I was in HS in CA 20+ years ago, you could have a good sense of where your SAT and GPA was likely to get you in at the UC's. For Stanford and the Ivies, sure you may need the right mix of extracurriculars, essays, and luck, but at least if you were smart and worked hard you'd know you'd get into UCLA, UCB, UCSD.
Now my understanding from hearing of colleague's kids going through the process, there is much less of that certainty.
My recollection from the late 60's was very similar. There were tiers by SAT/ACT score for all schools. If you were "in the zone" for a given school, not just UC schools, you probably would get in. In the UC system you would get in "somewhere". There were overlaps such that you may not get your preferred school even if the numbers said you "were qualified". I don't remember if back then you had to apply to each UC school separately, but I am pretty sure that was the case.
If you had a real high GPA but didn't "test well", you still had a chance to get in to many schools if you had great recommendations. If your GPA wasn't all that great but your test scores were, the GPA tended to be deprecated. Some people I knew got in to places that greatly surprised me. They just did better on the SAT than anybody expected, including themselves :-)
I suspect that grade inflation and "teaching to the test" has made the admission process less predictable. The range of possible GPAs and test scores get compressed so they differentiate students less. IMO the quality of high school education has also become much more uncertain. This further complicates the admissions process in that some students just haven't been taught well and/or exposed to material that other students have. That was always to some extent the case, but IMO it is much more common today.
The admissions process has always been imperfect. GPA and SAT scores are obviously not the whole story of what kind of a student a given person will be. There is something in the human psyche that rejects the notion that two numbers can define a persons educational opportunities. The institutions have attempted to incorporate a broader set of criteria. Unfortunately this effort has the side effect of reducing predictability. There are unobservable system state variables that affect the outputs. While well intentioned I do not think in general this attempt has produced a "better" result. As the UC professors letters indicate it may have produced a significantly worse one.