WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - Printable Version
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RE: 76lsjumb - crackpot - 02-24-2025
(02-24-2025, 04:34 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: I’m surprised that no one has pointed out the most obvious and fair example of the impact of travel on the WBB team, since it involves the fewest variables. When we had to travel east to play Kal, they crushed us. On the other hand, when we were able to stay home to play them, the score was very close.
Obviously, it must have been the effect of travel… :-)
Hate to break it to you, but Kal is further west than Stanford (doesn't feel like it, but it is...).
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - petersalas - 02-24-2025
This video makes me hopeful that we’ll have Nunu until she’s done with college.
https://x.com/stanfordwbb/status/1894173566871953782?s=46&t=4RIjvxZZM4wjQaSyTEUwgA
(02-24-2025, 10:21 AM)BobK Wrote: We will
Learn something Sunday. SR day
RE: 76lsjumb - 76lsjumb - 02-24-2025
(02-24-2025, 05:49 PM)crackpot Wrote:(02-24-2025, 04:34 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: I’m surprised that no one has pointed out the most obvious and fair example of the impact of travel on the WBB team, since it involves the fewest variables. When we had to travel east to play Kal, they crushed us. On the other hand, when we were able to stay home to play them, the score was very close.
Obviously, it must have been the effect of travel… :-)
Hate to break it to you, but Kal is further west than Stanford (doesn't feel like it, but it is...).
Well, I'll be...
I've always known that Reno is further west than Los Angeles [that's always been a good sucker's bet at a party], but I didn't realize that when I went over to the East Bay I was actually going west. Learn something new every day. Thanks!
Of course, that just means that we actually played BETTER against Kal when we travelled east... :-)
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - 81alum - 02-24-2025
(02-24-2025, 06:24 PM)petersalas Wrote: This video makes me hopeful that we’ll have Nunu until she’s done with college.In this era of mercenaries and discouragement, that video got my eyes moist with happiness.
https://x.com/stanfordwbb/status/1894173566871953782?s=46&t=4RIjvxZZM4wjQaSyTEUwgA
(02-24-2025, 10:21 AM)BobK Wrote: We will
Learn something Sunday. SR day
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - BostonCard - 02-24-2025
(02-24-2025, 03:48 PM)paloalto Wrote: You make my point in a long winded way. You can't precisely determine the impact of time zones because there are too many other variables. If you could isolate time zone travel from all other variables something statistically of value could be stated.
Analytically, MT's analysis makes sense, at least once there are enough games to even out those other variables (and you can reasonably debate whether a season is enough to make firm conclusions). But you can view scheduling as a quasi-random experiment. Over the course of the season, the home team and visiting team should, on average be evenly matched. Thus, any departure from a .500 record suggests an advantage to the home (or visiting team, though in practice that rarely happens). The larger the departure .500, the more that advantage is. If travel distance didn't make much of a difference, visiting teams traveling greater distances would have a similar record to visiting teams with less travel. And MT's analysis is suggestive that when a visiting team has to travel 2 or 3 time zones, it has a larger disadvantage than when it has to travel within its time zone or to an adjacent time zone. Is it absolute proof? No, you would probably want to see it over the course of multiple seasons. But given that the hypothesis is plausible to begin with I can believe it.
BC
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - Hieronymus - 02-24-2025
The caveat is I only watched 2.5 quarters but:
- the UVA defense was solid but nothing special. Stanford early missed its few open looks and hit very few of its moderately contested looks. But despite only 2 turnovers in q1, they were down 16.
- the defense on the other hand was a disaster.
- In q1 the player-player stopped nothing. Threes. Drives. Transition. It was all open.
- q2 was a a mirage. The zone did stop most of the driving, but every three was a practice shot. UVA just missed most of them.
- the end of q2 and into q3 it was back to player-player, and it briefly held in q2 but collapsed again in q3.
- long and short, I know UVA shot 3s much better than its average, but those were basically practice shots. Shooting percentage is going to go way up as a result. For reference, the NBA at 20 ft goes from 34% when closely guarded to 44% when unguarded.
- they just aren’t fast and quick enough against these types of teams unless they shoot lights out. And even then only maybe.
- Ogden is about the only player who can create off the dribble. It isn’t very efficient, but say 25% is better than s5%.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - MV72018 - 02-24-2025
(02-24-2025, 08:26 PM)81alum Wrote:(02-24-2025, 06:24 PM)petersalas Wrote: This video makes me hopeful that we’ll have Nunu until she’s done with college.In this era of mercenaries and discouragement, that video got my eyes moist with happiness.
https://x.com/stanfordwbb/status/1894173566871953782?s=46&t=4RIjvxZZM4wjQaSyTEUwgA
(02-24-2025, 10:21 AM)BobK Wrote: We will
Learn something Sunday. SR day
That was a warm and endearing story.
P.S. the thing that triggered my decision to come to Stanford as a graduate student was -- the beauty of Palm Drive.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - petersalas - 02-24-2025
That’s how I felt and that’s why I jumped right here to share it. I wasn’t sure it fit with the Virginia thread but I just felt like I needed to share it.
(02-24-2025, 08:26 PM)81alum Wrote:(02-24-2025, 06:24 PM)petersalas Wrote: This video makes me hopeful that we’ll have Nunu until she’s done with college.In this era of mercenaries and discouragement, that video got my eyes moist with happiness.
https://x.com/stanfordwbb/status/1894173566871953782?s=46&t=4RIjvxZZM4wjQaSyTEUwgA
(02-24-2025, 10:21 AM)BobK Wrote: We will
Learn something Sunday. SR day
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - Nobadeer - 02-24-2025
Coincidentally on the cross country travel topic, LSJU parent and Sports Illustrated writer Pat Forde's column today has this to say, including a mention on how LSJU and Cal have been most adversely affected:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/forde-minutes-taking-an-awkward-ride-on-the-coaching-carousel
Long Trips Are (Unsurprisingly) Taking Their Toll
On Sunday, USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman followed Cronin in articulating the difficulty of cross-country travel in their new Big Ten reality. While there is zero reason to pity the former Pac-12 schools who sold out their athletes by taking the Big Ten cash grab, Musselman isn’t wrong. Neither was Cronin when he piped up a few weeks ago.
The numbers for the Pac-12 diaspora to the Big Ten and ACC show that they are underperforming when playing two or more time zones away from home, and visitors to the West Coast in the those leagues are underperforming as well. A breakdown of the season to date (in men’s basketball only):
ACC teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed from home are 6–23, a .261 winning percentage. The overall league road record is 57–87, a .396 winning percentage.
Big Ten teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed have been markedly more in line with overall conference visiting performances. Road teams are 20–29, a .408 winning percentage. The league road winning percentage as a whole is .430.
But taking it beyond wins and losses to factor in expected results shows that teams doing the long travel are not quite playing to their predictive standard. Using Ken Pomeroy’s pregame predicted point spreads, the ACC teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 17 times, overperformed 11 times and pushed once. Using the same metrics, Big Ten teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 24 times, overperformed 20 times and pushed five times.
The Stanford Cardinal (11) and California Golden Bears (12) have been the biggest home heroes/road zeros, going a combined 2–13 on the road in ACC long travel games and 10–4 at home. Stanford has overperformed on the road just once, upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, an outcome the Heels may deeply regret come Selection Sunday. Cal overperformed five times but won only once, at NC State. Meanwhile, visitors to the Bay Area have underperformed nine times in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (13) lost their first four Big Ten road trips to Central or Eastern time before finally breaking through at Indiana on Feb. 14. The Bruins are 5–2 at home against long travelers, with a home loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the more notable outlier.
The USC Trojans (14) had a stunning win at Illinois but several underperforming road losses, most recently the one against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights that had Musselman lamenting the schedule. The flip side of that was upsetting the Michigan State Spartans in Los Angeles.
The Washington Huskies (15) have been drubbed a couple of times on the road—by 34 at Michigan State and by 24 at the Ohio State Buckeyes—but also won at Minnesota and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been tougher at home, most notably upsetting the Maryland Terrapins.
The Oregon Ducks (16) have been the best long-travel road team on the West Coast, with a 3–3 record that includes the stunning comeback upset of the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. They have, conversely, coughed up some home hairballs—a 32-point loss to Illinois and a loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that pumped oxygen into the Huskers’ NCAA dreams.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - TonyLima - 02-26-2025
(02-24-2025, 11:22 PM)Nobadeer Wrote: Coincidentally on the cross country travel topic, LSJU parent and Sports Illustrated writer Pat Forde's column today has this to say, including a mention on how LSJU and Cal have been most adversely affected:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/forde-minutes-taking-an-awkward-ride-on-the-coaching-carousel
Long Trips Are (Unsurprisingly) Taking Their Toll
On Sunday, USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman followed Cronin in articulating the difficulty of cross-country travel in their new Big Ten reality. While there is zero reason to pity the former Pac-12 schools who sold out their athletes by taking the Big Ten cash grab, Musselman isn’t wrong. Neither was Cronin when he piped up a few weeks ago.
The numbers for the Pac-12 diaspora to the Big Ten and ACC show that they are underperforming when playing two or more time zones away from home, and visitors to the West Coast in the those leagues are underperforming as well. A breakdown of the season to date (in men’s basketball only):
ACC teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed from home are 6–23, a .261 winning percentage. The overall league road record is 57–87, a .396 winning percentage.
Big Ten teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed have been markedly more in line with overall conference visiting performances. Road teams are 20–29, a .408 winning percentage. The league road winning percentage as a whole is .430.
But taking it beyond wins and losses to factor in expected results shows that teams doing the long travel are not quite playing to their predictive standard. Using Ken Pomeroy’s pregame predicted point spreads, the ACC teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 17 times, overperformed 11 times and pushed once. Using the same metrics, Big Ten teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 24 times, overperformed 20 times and pushed five times.
The Stanford Cardinal (11) and California Golden Bears (12) have been the biggest home heroes/road zeros, going a combined 2–13 on the road in ACC long travel games and 10–4 at home. Stanford has overperformed on the road just once, upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, an outcome the Heels may deeply regret come Selection Sunday. Cal overperformed five times but won only once, at NC State. Meanwhile, visitors to the Bay Area have underperformed nine times in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (13) lost their first four Big Ten road trips to Central or Eastern time before finally breaking through at Indiana on Feb. 14. The Bruins are 5–2 at home against long travelers, with a home loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the more notable outlier.
The USC Trojans (14) had a stunning win at Illinois but several underperforming road losses, most recently the one against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights that had Musselman lamenting the schedule. The flip side of that was upsetting the Michigan State Spartans in Los Angeles.
The Washington Huskies (15) have been drubbed a couple of times on the road—by 34 at Michigan State and by 24 at the Ohio State Buckeyes—but also won at Minnesota and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been tougher at home, most notably upsetting the Maryland Terrapins.
The Oregon Ducks (16) have been the best long-travel road team on the West Coast, with a 3–3 record that includes the stunning comeback upset of the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. They have, conversely, coughed up some home hairballs—a 32-point loss to Illinois and a loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that pumped oxygen into the Huskers’ NCAA dreams.
I would like someone to separate the west to east and east to west games. Testing my hypothesis that the former is more challenging.
(02-24-2025, 11:22 PM)Nobadeer Wrote: Coincidentally on the cross country travel topic, LSJU parent and Sports Illustrated writer Pat Forde's column today has this to say, including a mention on how LSJU and Cal have been most adversely affected:
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/forde-minutes-taking-an-awkward-ride-on-the-coaching-carousel
Long Trips Are (Unsurprisingly) Taking Their Toll
On Sunday, USC Trojans coach Eric Musselman followed Cronin in articulating the difficulty of cross-country travel in their new Big Ten reality. While there is zero reason to pity the former Pac-12 schools who sold out their athletes by taking the Big Ten cash grab, Musselman isn’t wrong. Neither was Cronin when he piped up a few weeks ago.
The numbers for the Pac-12 diaspora to the Big Ten and ACC show that they are underperforming when playing two or more time zones away from home, and visitors to the West Coast in the those leagues are underperforming as well. A breakdown of the season to date (in men’s basketball only):
ACC teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed from home are 6–23, a .261 winning percentage. The overall league road record is 57–87, a .396 winning percentage.
Big Ten teams playing league road games two or more time zones removed have been markedly more in line with overall conference visiting performances. Road teams are 20–29, a .408 winning percentage. The league road winning percentage as a whole is .430.
But taking it beyond wins and losses to factor in expected results shows that teams doing the long travel are not quite playing to their predictive standard. Using Ken Pomeroy’s pregame predicted point spreads, the ACC teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 17 times, overperformed 11 times and pushed once. Using the same metrics, Big Ten teams playing two or more time zones away have underperformed 24 times, overperformed 20 times and pushed five times.
The Stanford Cardinal (11) and California Golden Bears (12) have been the biggest home heroes/road zeros, going a combined 2–13 on the road in ACC long travel games and 10–4 at home. Stanford has overperformed on the road just once, upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, an outcome the Heels may deeply regret come Selection Sunday. Cal overperformed five times but won only once, at NC State. Meanwhile, visitors to the Bay Area have underperformed nine times in 14 games.
The UCLA Bruins (13) lost their first four Big Ten road trips to Central or Eastern time before finally breaking through at Indiana on Feb. 14. The Bruins are 5–2 at home against long travelers, with a home loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as the more notable outlier.
The USC Trojans (14) had a stunning win at Illinois but several underperforming road losses, most recently the one against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights that had Musselman lamenting the schedule. The flip side of that was upsetting the Michigan State Spartans in Los Angeles.
The Washington Huskies (15) have been drubbed a couple of times on the road—by 34 at Michigan State and by 24 at the Ohio State Buckeyes—but also won at Minnesota and the Penn State Nittany Lions. They’ve been tougher at home, most notably upsetting the Maryland Terrapins.
The Oregon Ducks (16) have been the best long-travel road team on the West Coast, with a 3–3 record that includes the stunning comeback upset of the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. They have, conversely, coughed up some home hairballs—a 32-point loss to Illinois and a loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers that pumped oxygen into the Huskers’ NCAA dreams.
Attn mods: suggest moving this post and my reply to the “Stanford to ACC?” thread.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - jacket3ree - 02-26-2025
Someone on one of the ACC boards looked at men's basketball and the impact of travel. Not good. Not only do teams that travel far not perform well when they travel, but the east coast teams are horrible the first home game they are back from a long trip west. I think the analysis was limited to conference games. Also, I don't get the feeling anyone is really happy with the expanded conference except maybe SMU.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - TonyLima - 02-26-2025
Just took a quick look at Stanford men's basketball. Counting only two time zone trips. West-East travel the traveling team (only Stanford) went 1-7. East-West it was 1-5. Hypothesis: playing on your home court is far more important than travel. Not going to pursue this further. Others welcome to my Excel sheet.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - Hurlburt88 - 02-27-2025
Scientific American had a great article on "jet lag" about 15 years ago. As someone who travels almost every week, and internationally 4-6 times per year, I took great interest. Their conclusions IIRC included that jet lag is quite real, and we adjust about 1 hour each day. They did say west to east was harder, but it was a secondary effect. Mitigations include spending time under a blue sky--something specific about that set of light wavelengths. Also high liquids, avoiding alcohol, and trying to allot enough time for sleep before, during, and after trip; some studies also concluded that minimizing caffeine and judiciously using sleeping pills helped.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - skip75 - 02-27-2025
(02-26-2025, 04:32 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just took a quick look at Stanford men's basketball. Counting only two time zone trips. West-East travel the traveling team (only Stanford) went 1-7. East-West it was 1-5. Hypothesis: playing on your home court is far more important than travel. Not going to pursue this further. Others welcome to my Excel sheet.A little longer look at the Stanford men's basketball schedule shows that they are 9-0 vs. the teams in the bottom half of the ACC standings and 1-7 vs. teams in the top half. Visiting ACC teams are 1-8 at Maples. Wake Forest, the #5 team has the only win. The losses are by team numbers 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 (Cal), 16, 17, & 18. On ACC road trips Stanford is 2-6, with one win at Cal (#15) and the other at UNC (#6). The losses are to team numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, & 9. Stanford is #7, so of 17 ACC games, the only ones not predictable by the current standings are the win at #6 UNC and losses at #8 Georgia Tech & #9 Pitt.
I have no doubt that travel has an impact on outcomes given the crazy road trips that ACC teams are faced with. But who you play can't be overlooked. I'd be careful about concluding much based on Stanford's schedule, which has generally been, play the top teams on the road and the bottom teams at home.
The next 2 games break that pattern - #4 SMU will be here on Saturday, and Stanford will visit #13 Notre Dame next week.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - SkiBum80 - 02-27-2025
(02-27-2025, 10:33 AM)skip75 Wrote:(02-26-2025, 04:32 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just took a quick look at Stanford men's basketball. Counting only two time zone trips. West-East travel the traveling team (only Stanford) went 1-7. East-West it was 1-5. Hypothesis: playing on your home court is far more important than travel. Not going to pursue this further. Others welcome to my Excel sheet.A little longer look at the Stanford men's basketball schedule shows that they are 9-0 vs. the teams in the bottom half of the ACC standings and 1-7 vs. teams in the top half. Visiting ACC teams are 1-8 at Maples. Wake Forest, the #5 team has the only win. The losses are by team numbers 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 (Cal), 16, 17, & 18. On ACC road trips Stanford is 2-6, with one win at Cal (#15) and the other at UNC (#6). The losses are to team numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, & 9. Stanford is #7, so of 17 ACC games, the only ones not predictable by the current standings are the win at #6 UNC and losses at #8 Georgia Tech & #9 Pitt.
I have no doubt that travel has an impact on outcomes given the crazy road trips that ACC teams are faced with. But who you play can't be overlooked. I'd be careful about concluding much based on Stanford's schedule, which has generally been, play the top teams on the road and the bottom teams at home.
The next 2 games break that pattern - #4 SMU will be here on Saturday, and Stanford will visit #13 Notre Dame next week.
Analysis very much appreciated.
My take is that Yes travel is a factor, but it doesn't have to be the main factor.
And a bit overlooked in many of the travel discussions is not just the time zones, but the distance, and even more so, the connections and the ground travel before and after landing. Time zones may be used to try to simplify travel analysis, but what really counts is travel time from start to final destination, that can be quite different and varied not just related to time zones.
And of course the details of the travel. Flying charter is so much different than commercial.
Like Hurlburt I still do a lot of travel, domestic and international.
Based on my experience, if take a coast to coast non-stop flight, 3 time zones, most of it done during normal waking hours, have a chance to sleep some onboard, this is entirely different with way less jet lag than perhaps a shorter, only a 2 time zone trip, but with a connection in the middle, no chance to sleep, and if done as a red-eye, or otherwise start or end in the middle of the night? The jet lag from the latter trip will be far worse than that of the prior.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - TonyLima - 02-27-2025
(02-27-2025, 10:33 AM)skip75 Wrote:(02-26-2025, 04:32 PM)TonyLima Wrote: Just took a quick look at Stanford men's basketball. Counting only two time zone trips. West-East travel the traveling team (only Stanford) went 1-7. East-West it was 1-5. Hypothesis: playing on your home court is far more important than travel. Not going to pursue this further. Others welcome to my Excel sheet.A little longer look at the Stanford men's basketball schedule shows that they are 9-0 vs. the teams in the bottom half of the ACC standings and 1-7 vs. teams in the top half. Visiting ACC teams are 1-8 at Maples. Wake Forest, the #5 team has the only win. The losses are by team numbers 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 (Cal), 16, 17, & 18. On ACC road trips Stanford is 2-6, with one win at Cal (#15) and the other at UNC (#6). The losses are to team numbers 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, & 9. Stanford is #7, so of 17 ACC games, the only ones not predictable by the current standings are the win at #6 UNC and losses at #8 Georgia Tech & #9 Pitt.
I have no doubt that travel has an impact on outcomes given the crazy road trips that ACC teams are faced with. But who you play can't be overlooked. I'd be careful about concluding much based on Stanford's schedule, which has generally been, play the top teams on the road and the bottom teams at home.
The next 2 games break that pattern - #4 SMU will be here on Saturday, and Stanford will visit #13 Notre Dame next week.
Thank you.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - BobK - 02-27-2025
It’s not just the travel these are Stanford students. Their classes are on line, zoomed or recorded. They are studying, writing papers etc and traveling three time zones
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - 81alum - 02-27-2025
(02-27-2025, 02:27 PM)BobK Wrote: It’s not just the travel these are Stanford students. Their classes are on line, zoomed or recorded. They are studying, writing papers etc and traveling three time zonesBob's point is well taken. There might be an impact on how well they play basketball, but there absolutely must be an impact on their studies and their Stanford experience in general. Lots of things being attempted to mitigate, no doubt. Because they must--there is so much to mitigate.
RE: WBB: Stanford 69 Virginia 89 - TonyLima - 02-27-2025
(02-27-2025, 02:53 PM)81alum Wrote:(02-27-2025, 02:27 PM)BobK Wrote: It’s not just the travel these are Stanford students. Their classes are on line, zoomed or recorded. They are studying, writing papers etc and traveling three time zonesBob's point is well taken. There might be an impact on how well they play basketball, but there absolutely must be an impact on their studies and their Stanford experience in general. Lots of things being attempted to mitigate, no doubt. Because they must--there is so much to mitigate.
Important point to always remember. Thanks, Bob.