[Roberton3]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13854.msg145256#msg145256 date=1449079323]
FWIW 538 gives us a 61% chance ... IF WE WIN ... to go to the playoffs: https://twitter.com/andrewflowers/status...3530710016

Unfortunately, that's not what the 538 article says.
It says that if Stanford wins, Alabama loses and Clemson wins, Stanford has a 61% of going to the playoff.

There is no overall calculation for Stanford's chances, but my read of the article suggests that 538's model gives us about a 15-20% of getting into the playoffs if we win.
[/quote]

It actually works out to just over 28% if we win (under the assumption that all of the games are independent of each other).

[Roberton3]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=13854.msg145256#msg145256 date=1449079323]
FWIW 538 gives us a 61% chance ... IF WE WIN ... to go to the playoffs: https://twitter.com/andrewflowers/status...3530710016

Unfortunately, that's not what the 538 article says.
It says that if Stanford wins, Alabama loses and Clemson wins, Stanford has a 61% of going to the playoff.

There is no overall calculation for Stanford's chances, but my read of the article suggests that 538's model gives us about a 15-20% of getting into the playoffs if we win.
[/quote]

It actually works out to just over 28% if we win (under the assumption that all of the games are independent of each other).