[stupac2]

A lot of people here seem convinced that if Stanford and Alabama win, and Clemson loses, Stanford is in. I sure hope you all are right! But 538's model actually gives Clemson the best chance of grabbing the fourth playoff spot in that scenario (42%), followed by Stanford (34%) and UNC (28%).

The problem with 538's model is that it's based on historical coaches poll data. In the past in this scenario the #1 team losing would move down to #4, because it didn't really matter that they were #4. But now it does. So they'll end up #5 or maybe even #6. I'm with OF, in 538's parlance there's <1% chance of Clemson losing and getting in.

[stupac2]

A lot of people here seem convinced that if Stanford and Alabama win, and Clemson loses, Stanford is in. I sure hope you all are right! But 538's model actually gives Clemson the best chance of grabbing the fourth playoff spot in that scenario (42%), followed by Stanford (34%) and UNC (28%).

The problem with 538's model is that it's based on historical coaches poll data. In the past in this scenario the #1 team losing would move down to #4, because it didn't really matter that they were #4. But now it does. So they'll end up #5 or maybe even #6. I'm with OF, in 538's parlance there's <1% chance of Clemson losing and getting in.