12-02-2015, 12:29 PM
Not to rain on everyone's parade, but I've started to look past the playoff possibilities and have been more interested in our potential Rose Bowl opponent if we manage to beat SC (which, just in case the football gods are reading this, I find a terrifyingly difficult prospect). Part of this is because I think UNC and Florida are terrible and thus highly unlikely to pull off upsets against demonstrably superior teams in Clemson and Alabama, respectively. And the other part is because I married an Iowa alum, so my odds of attending the Rose Bowl go from "highly unlikely" to "sure thing" if we end up playing Iowa.Â
So, which Big Ten team gets in? Assuming MSU wins the Big Ten, it's either Iowa or Ohio State. After MSU beat OSU, most of the bowl predictions I saw thought that Iowa would be the representative after they lost to MSU in the Big Ten title game. But given Ohio State's thrashing of Michigan, and Iowa's relatively weak strength of schedule, I think a Stanford-Iowa matchup is the least likely of the three possibilities. The Rose Bowl has effectively stated that it would pick whatever Big Ten team is ranked higher in the last CFP standings, so the only path I see for Iowa to go to the Rose Bowl is for the Big Ten title game to be extremely close and for Iowa to acquit itself well in that game. Otherwise, I'd have to think that both the eye test and the fact that Ohio State generally beat the 4 common opponents it had with Iowa by more points (albeit not terribly many points)* means that Ohio State would win that comparison and end up ranked higher. Thus, if the playoff is not to be, then I for one am rooting for Michigan State to beat Iowa in controversial fashion after 8 overtimes or so.Â
*For the record, despite playing in the same conference, Iowa and Ohio State only had 4 common opponents, which is both absurd and unhelpful for comparison purposes. But for posterity's sake, here we go:
Indiana (Iowa +8, OSU +7; Iowa +1)
Maryland (Iowa +16, OSU +21; OSU +5)
Illinois (Iowa +9, OSU +25; OSU +16)
Minnesota (Iowa +5, OSU +14; OSU +9).Â
So, which Big Ten team gets in? Assuming MSU wins the Big Ten, it's either Iowa or Ohio State. After MSU beat OSU, most of the bowl predictions I saw thought that Iowa would be the representative after they lost to MSU in the Big Ten title game. But given Ohio State's thrashing of Michigan, and Iowa's relatively weak strength of schedule, I think a Stanford-Iowa matchup is the least likely of the three possibilities. The Rose Bowl has effectively stated that it would pick whatever Big Ten team is ranked higher in the last CFP standings, so the only path I see for Iowa to go to the Rose Bowl is for the Big Ten title game to be extremely close and for Iowa to acquit itself well in that game. Otherwise, I'd have to think that both the eye test and the fact that Ohio State generally beat the 4 common opponents it had with Iowa by more points (albeit not terribly many points)* means that Ohio State would win that comparison and end up ranked higher. Thus, if the playoff is not to be, then I for one am rooting for Michigan State to beat Iowa in controversial fashion after 8 overtimes or so.Â
*For the record, despite playing in the same conference, Iowa and Ohio State only had 4 common opponents, which is both absurd and unhelpful for comparison purposes. But for posterity's sake, here we go:
Indiana (Iowa +8, OSU +7; Iowa +1)
Maryland (Iowa +16, OSU +21; OSU +5)
Illinois (Iowa +9, OSU +25; OSU +16)
Minnesota (Iowa +5, OSU +14; OSU +9).Â