09-09-2011, 03:56 PM
My quick Googling exercise didn't come up with a truly comparable statistic, but to give you a sense as to why I'm confident that 11-for-16 (69%) is actually a very good conversion rate for these 3-yards-or-less-to-go situations, the 2010 NFL median 4th down conversion rate appears to have been approximately 46% (the 2011 data that they had on their website was not complete). In fact, the single highest conversion rate in the entire league was 73%.
Now, this undoubtedly includes a few situations in which coaches "had to go for it" from more than 3 yards, but anecdotaly, I think it's pretty safe to assume that most of those situations were within a yard. How come those "elite" running teams in the NFL can't seem to do better than our "disappointing" run-blockers (3 of whom were starting for the first time, as you and others have noted)?!?Â
Contrary to most Hollywood story-lines, I think you'll find that "elite base stealers" don't actually succeed at a higher clip "when the entire stadium knows they're going" either (just as the widely-accepted "hot shooter" theory has been disproven repeatedly in the NBA, with very few exceptions, that don't tend to be highly correlated with MVP trophies).
Now, this undoubtedly includes a few situations in which coaches "had to go for it" from more than 3 yards, but anecdotaly, I think it's pretty safe to assume that most of those situations were within a yard. How come those "elite" running teams in the NFL can't seem to do better than our "disappointing" run-blockers (3 of whom were starting for the first time, as you and others have noted)?!?Â
Contrary to most Hollywood story-lines, I think you'll find that "elite base stealers" don't actually succeed at a higher clip "when the entire stadium knows they're going" either (just as the widely-accepted "hot shooter" theory has been disproven repeatedly in the NBA, with very few exceptions, that don't tend to be highly correlated with MVP trophies).