[BostonCard]

Yeah, but we know Murphy panned out; he wound up starting at RT and then LT, and got drafted and now plays for the Packers.  While I have every expectation that Sarell will as well (and he could even exceed Murphy’s accomplishments), there is still a possibility that he will be a bust or a significant disappointment.  I’d say there is about a 15% chance that Sarell exceeds Murphy’s career (all American, high draft pick), probably a 60% chance that his career is broadly similar (multi-year starter, all-PAC-12, bottom half of the draft), and a 25%chance that his career will wind up below that of Murphy’s (no all conference honors; doesn’t get drafted), with a small but non-zero chance that he is a victim of injuries or is a complete bust and never starts.  Unlikely, but we once had the number 1 linebacker in the country, and he never could crack the starting line-up.

BC

[BostonCard]

Yeah, but we know Murphy panned out; he wound up starting at RT and then LT, and got drafted and now plays for the Packers.  While I have every expectation that Sarell will as well (and he could even exceed Murphy’s accomplishments), there is still a possibility that he will be a bust or a significant disappointment.  I’d say there is about a 15% chance that Sarell exceeds Murphy’s career (all American, high draft pick), probably a 60% chance that his career is broadly similar (multi-year starter, all-PAC-12, bottom half of the draft), and a 25%chance that his career will wind up below that of Murphy’s (no all conference honors; doesn’t get drafted), with a small but non-zero chance that he is a victim of injuries or is a complete bust and never starts.  Unlikely, but we once had the number 1 linebacker in the country, and he never could crack the starting line-up.

BC