[Papa John]

Just mentioning failures at Stanford.
Beware of what you wish for.  It doesn’t always work out

If the current guy either can't see the problems AND implement solutions or (just as bad) can see them and WON'T implement, then I'd rather someone else at least tries even if the results are worse. Maintaining status quo after the last four seasons is not OK

I know times are tough, but we were 9-4 in 2018.  We were also 4-2 in 2020, despite having to play on the road endlessly (and one wonders where we would have been had Mills not been a weird COVID testing situation).  We were dreadful in 2019 and again this year, so maybe it feels like it has been forever since we had a winning season.

BC

I am with you on this, mostly.  But consider also that nobody here expects us to have a winning record next season, due mostly to lack of proven ability and depth on the defensive line / front 7. That seems to be unfixable by next year, barring major surprises from some young and inexperienced players.  

So by this time next year, we are probably talking about 3 out of 4 seasons where performance is well below par.  

That’s why this poll was difficult for me.  I want to give Shaw time to fix it himself (hire new assistants, make changes, etc.), but giving him one year seems pointless and giving him two years seems too long.

I felt the same tensions CardinalSagehen. Based on the recruiting mistakes from the last couple of years, the writing was on the wall regarding deficiencies at the DL for next year. I'm baffled as to why the OL performed so poorly this year, and I think it should be fixable for 2022 but I have my doubts. I just don't see how Stanford football can have a winning record next year, so it was pointless to vote for that item.

For me it comes down to this. Which is more likely? Stanford having a winning record in 2023 with (1) Shaw at the helm or (2) someone else at the helm?

I voted for two more years for Shaw, because he was part of the team that dug us out from the Teevens/Harris hole. But I also understand that if I'm wrong Stanford will have losing seasons in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 and I'd be looking for a new coach who would probably need a few seasons--Harbaugh needed three--to produce a winning record. So that could mean six out of seven losing seasons, which would make me a very bad athletic director.

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Despite 4-2 record, Stanford was also dreadful in 2020, per Sagarin.

Sagarin is great when a full season is played by everyone. 2020 was a mess because some teams played 3 games and Alabama played 13. And it's not just how many games your team played. It's also how many games your opponents played.

Here are the 2020 Sagarin ratings for the Pac-12:

ASU #23 (2-2)
USC #34 (5-1)
Oregon #43 (4-3)
UCLA #46 (3-4)
Utah #52 (3-2)
Stanford #75 (4-2)
Colorado #77 (4-2)
Washington #78 (3-1)
OSU #91 (2-5)
Cal #94 (1-3)
WSU #98 (1-3)
UA #121 (0-5)

If the Pac-12 had played a full season, I have a hard time believing that only one team in the conference would crack the top 25 at season's end. Lots of problems with algorithms when you don't have enough data points. But even so, Stanford ends up with the 6th-best Sagarin rating in the conference in 2020.

[Papa John]

Just mentioning failures at Stanford.
Beware of what you wish for.  It doesn’t always work out

If the current guy either can't see the problems AND implement solutions or (just as bad) can see them and WON'T implement, then I'd rather someone else at least tries even if the results are worse. Maintaining status quo after the last four seasons is not OK

I know times are tough, but we were 9-4 in 2018.  We were also 4-2 in 2020, despite having to play on the road endlessly (and one wonders where we would have been had Mills not been a weird COVID testing situation).  We were dreadful in 2019 and again this year, so maybe it feels like it has been forever since we had a winning season.

BC

I am with you on this, mostly.  But consider also that nobody here expects us to have a winning record next season, due mostly to lack of proven ability and depth on the defensive line / front 7. That seems to be unfixable by next year, barring major surprises from some young and inexperienced players.  

So by this time next year, we are probably talking about 3 out of 4 seasons where performance is well below par.  

That’s why this poll was difficult for me.  I want to give Shaw time to fix it himself (hire new assistants, make changes, etc.), but giving him one year seems pointless and giving him two years seems too long.

I felt the same tensions CardinalSagehen. Based on the recruiting mistakes from the last couple of years, the writing was on the wall regarding deficiencies at the DL for next year. I'm baffled as to why the OL performed so poorly this year, and I think it should be fixable for 2022 but I have my doubts. I just don't see how Stanford football can have a winning record next year, so it was pointless to vote for that item.

For me it comes down to this. Which is more likely? Stanford having a winning record in 2023 with (1) Shaw at the helm or (2) someone else at the helm?

I voted for two more years for Shaw, because he was part of the team that dug us out from the Teevens/Harris hole. But I also understand that if I'm wrong Stanford will have losing seasons in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 and I'd be looking for a new coach who would probably need a few seasons--Harbaugh needed three--to produce a winning record. So that could mean six out of seven losing seasons, which would make me a very bad athletic director.

---

Despite 4-2 record, Stanford was also dreadful in 2020, per Sagarin.

Sagarin is great when a full season is played by everyone. 2020 was a mess because some teams played 3 games and Alabama played 13. And it's not just how many games your team played. It's also how many games your opponents played.

Here are the 2020 Sagarin ratings for the Pac-12:

ASU #23 (2-2)
USC #34 (5-1)
Oregon #43 (4-3)
UCLA #46 (3-4)
Utah #52 (3-2)
Stanford #75 (4-2)
Colorado #77 (4-2)
Washington #78 (3-1)
OSU #91 (2-5)
Cal #94 (1-3)
WSU #98 (1-3)
UA #121 (0-5)

If the Pac-12 had played a full season, I have a hard time believing that only one team in the conference would crack the top 25 at season's end. Lots of problems with algorithms when you don't have enough data points. But even so, Stanford ends up with the 6th-best Sagarin rating in the conference in 2020.