10-04-2022, 02:51 PM
The computers, especially early in the season, use the past three seasons (SP+) or at least a combination of recruiting quality and the last season to weight the expected performance. When Bill Connelly was on footballstudyhall, he had detailed previews of each team and how variability might affect single game performance. Our little COVID blip ray of hope season is having continuing effects on the computer rankings.
That being said, losing 11 straight games against the spread is an astonishing amount of incompetence. We haven't been close to covering in most of the games. Even terrible teams like Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, New Mexico State, and UMass cover once in a while. This year, the only teams that have failed to cover at least one game are: Stanford, Colorado, Colorado State, and Fresno State. What do all of them have in common? Previously decent teams that are going through a transition. Except for Stanford... where the coaching staff has remained stable.
That being said, losing 11 straight games against the spread is an astonishing amount of incompetence. We haven't been close to covering in most of the games. Even terrible teams like Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, New Mexico State, and UMass cover once in a while. This year, the only teams that have failed to cover at least one game are: Stanford, Colorado, Colorado State, and Fresno State. What do all of them have in common? Previously decent teams that are going through a transition. Except for Stanford... where the coaching staff has remained stable.