10-04-2022, 03:02 PM
(10-04-2022, 02:23 PM)msqueri Wrote: The thing that fascinates me about 11 straight losses ATS and seven straight major college football games losing by two scores or more is that the spreads, to the best of my recollection, didn't deviate a lot from the computers. Say what you will about computers, but the algorithms are objective and based on a ton of data. For us to continually do worse than projected for a year is amazing. I don't really know how to explain it. I suppose my hypothesis would be that the program is imploding and, to a degree, getting worse each week as a result. A wasting asset. In that sense, the computers/Vegas are always a step behind because the program keeps getting worse. I don't know, just trying to make sense of the oddity of 11 straight losses ATS.
It is possible Vegas is now trying to price this in and be more pessimistic about Stanford than computer algorithms/objective data would suggest. Sagarin predicts that Oregon State beats us by 4.31 points. That's obviously a few points less than the actual spread. This spread itself could be an effort to price in what a wasting asset Stanford football is.
I think that Shaw is losing the team, bit by bit. A few players a week. I think that phenomenon explains the 11 straight ATS losses.
Audaces fortuna iuvat