[81alum]

Preview: Stanford vs. North Carolina State, Friday 4:30

North Carolina State defeated Tennessee to advance to the sweet sixteen, and will play us on Friday in Portland. We had better get used to playing them, since they are now a leading power in our new conference.

North Carolina State is 29-6 and was second to Virginia Tech won the regular season title in the ACC regular season, though they narrowly lost in their conference tournament final to Notre Dame. They were seeded 3rd in our region. Massey has them at 11, NET has them at 9. Their best wins have been over UConn, Colorado, and Notre Dame. They have lost to Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech (twice), North Carolina, Duke, and Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is coached by Wes Moore, who really made a name for NCS two years ago when he took them to the final four before losing in double overtime to Uconn. This year’s team does not have the gaudy numbers that the 21-22 team had, but is very strong. Their greatest strength is their quick, close defense that holds opponents under 60 points per game. Their weakness may be their depth. Only 7 players average double digit minutes, and in recent games they have sometimes played only 6.

NC State is 8th in the nation in field goal defense, on par with Oregon State. We are 10th. They average about 7 steals a game. On offense the most important thing to know is this: their five starters ALL average 10 or more points a game. They make about 6 three point shots a game—so the perimeter is an option for them although they are not as dependent on it as Iowa State. Instead, seemingly all their players are very quick and they all seem to be able to make lightning drives around their defenders to the basket. Such even balance makes it impossible to consider doubling one by sagging off of another.

Their leading scorer is Aziaha James, a 5’9” junior guard who averages 16ppg and uses her speed and accuracy to fill up the stat sheet. Saniya Rivers is a 6’1” junior averaging 14 ppg. Madison Hayes is a 6’0” senior averaging 11 points. Mimi Collins, a 6’3” grad student and River Baldwin, a 6’5” grad student provide them with inside size and each provides about 11 ppg.

Thus North Carolina State has size, speed, and experience. In watching their game against Tennessee I was cheering for Tennessee since I think we match up much better with teams that play more conventionally. NC State looked to me to be exactly the kind of team we have trouble with—their speed and quickness on the perimeter are problems for us both offensively and defensively. Three of their players have over 100 assists. While three point shooting is not the main focus, James has hit 62 of them and Hayes has hit 43 at better than 40%.

North Carolina gave up 33 points to Rickea Jackson who was doing her best Kiki Iriafen immitation today. But NC State countered with two players over 20 and four in double digits. Their stop-and-pop shooting in the midrange looked deadly and carried the bulk of their scoring, as they had only 5/14 three pointers and were 14/19 at the free throw line. Giving up the mid range jumpers is normally the poison we would choose in trying to deny our opponents the high percentage layups and the high reward three pointers, but it seemed that they were a feature of the North Carolina State offense.

I do think that Iriafen and Brink, if they both can stay in the game, can score on Baldwin and Collins, though they may need to hit a lot of jumpers of their own. I worry very much about who will defend Aziaha James in particular, but basically all the very quick NC State perimeter players. And I doubt that we will get our three point shooting going against the quickness and closeness of the NC State defense.

Tara truly is a basketball genius, and I have followed her for long enough to know that we shall be prepared to pull a lot of rabbits out of a lot of hats. But her famous scouting-report defense depends on finding the opponent's weakness and exploiting it, and I am not sure there is one, other than lack of depth.  Teams with 5 double digit scorers have always given Tara's teams trouble, which is why our wins over UConn were few and far between.   To win this one is going to require that we can stay in front of at least 4 speedy, quick players who like to stop and pop or drive. If we can’t do that effectively, we will simply have to have monster games out of both Iriafen and Brink, and get some help from elsewhere as well.  

And we could.  North Carolina's bigs are not as gifted as ours are.  If the game is called appropriately, our inside play might balance their outside play, and we could have a chance in this one.

[81alum]

Preview: Stanford vs. North Carolina State, Friday 4:30

North Carolina State defeated Tennessee to advance to the sweet sixteen, and will play us on Friday in Portland. We had better get used to playing them, since they are now a leading power in our new conference.

North Carolina State is 29-6 and was second to Virginia Tech won the regular season title in the ACC regular season, though they narrowly lost in their conference tournament final to Notre Dame. They were seeded 3rd in our region. Massey has them at 11, NET has them at 9. Their best wins have been over UConn, Colorado, and Notre Dame. They have lost to Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech (twice), North Carolina, Duke, and Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is coached by Wes Moore, who really made a name for NCS two years ago when he took them to the final four before losing in double overtime to Uconn. This year’s team does not have the gaudy numbers that the 21-22 team had, but is very strong. Their greatest strength is their quick, close defense that holds opponents under 60 points per game. Their weakness may be their depth. Only 7 players average double digit minutes, and in recent games they have sometimes played only 6.

NC State is 8th in the nation in field goal defense, on par with Oregon State. We are 10th. They average about 7 steals a game. On offense the most important thing to know is this: their five starters ALL average 10 or more points a game. They make about 6 three point shots a game—so the perimeter is an option for them although they are not as dependent on it as Iowa State. Instead, seemingly all their players are very quick and they all seem to be able to make lightning drives around their defenders to the basket. Such even balance makes it impossible to consider doubling one by sagging off of another.

Their leading scorer is Aziaha James, a 5’9” junior guard who averages 16ppg and uses her speed and accuracy to fill up the stat sheet. Saniya Rivers is a 6’1” junior averaging 14 ppg. Madison Hayes is a 6’0” senior averaging 11 points. Mimi Collins, a 6’3” grad student and River Baldwin, a 6’5” grad student provide them with inside size and each provides about 11 ppg.

Thus North Carolina State has size, speed, and experience. In watching their game against Tennessee I was cheering for Tennessee since I think we match up much better with teams that play more conventionally. NC State looked to me to be exactly the kind of team we have trouble with—their speed and quickness on the perimeter are problems for us both offensively and defensively. Three of their players have over 100 assists. While three point shooting is not the main focus, James has hit 62 of them and Hayes has hit 43 at better than 40%.

North Carolina gave up 33 points to Rickea Jackson who was doing her best Kiki Iriafen immitation today. But NC State countered with two players over 20 and four in double digits. Their stop-and-pop shooting in the midrange looked deadly and carried the bulk of their scoring, as they had only 5/14 three pointers and were 14/19 at the free throw line. Giving up the mid range jumpers is normally the poison we would choose in trying to deny our opponents the high percentage layups and the high reward three pointers, but it seemed that they were a feature of the North Carolina State offense.

I do think that Iriafen and Brink, if they both can stay in the game, can score on Baldwin and Collins, though they may need to hit a lot of jumpers of their own. I worry very much about who will defend Aziaha James in particular, but basically all the very quick NC State perimeter players. And I doubt that we will get our three point shooting going against the quickness and closeness of the NC State defense.

Tara truly is a basketball genius, and I have followed her for long enough to know that we shall be prepared to pull a lot of rabbits out of a lot of hats. But her famous scouting-report defense depends on finding the opponent's weakness and exploiting it, and I am not sure there is one, other than lack of depth.  Teams with 5 double digit scorers have always given Tara's teams trouble, which is why our wins over UConn were few and far between.   To win this one is going to require that we can stay in front of at least 4 speedy, quick players who like to stop and pop or drive. If we can’t do that effectively, we will simply have to have monster games out of both Iriafen and Brink, and get some help from elsewhere as well.  

And we could.  North Carolina's bigs are not as gifted as ours are.  If the game is called appropriately, our inside play might balance their outside play, and we could have a chance in this one.