11-19-2012, 05:47 PM
40% sounds about right to me.
Getting to the CCG: ~65% (assume 50% probability we beat UCLA + 15% probability Oregon loses to Oregon St., there's probably overlap in those outcomes, but I'm not dusting off my probability text books to calculate it)
Winning the CCG: 70% chance if we're in Palo Alto, 40% chance if we're at UCLA (meaning we lost the week before. Assume in 80% of Stanford in the CCG scenarios that we're the home team)
0.65 * ( 0.80 * 0.7+ 0.20 * 0.4) = 41.6%
I still wonder if we would have had a better chance of going to the Rose Bowl by losing to Oregon. With KSU losing, an undefeated ND goes to the NCG, removing that temptation from the RB committee. Then we'd only have to beat a UCLA team that may be resting ahead of the Friday CCG against the Ducks to shore up a 9-3 record and likely spot in the BCS top 14.
Oh well, I guess the boys will just have to do it the (new) old fashioned way and beat UCLA twice.
Getting to the CCG: ~65% (assume 50% probability we beat UCLA + 15% probability Oregon loses to Oregon St., there's probably overlap in those outcomes, but I'm not dusting off my probability text books to calculate it)
Winning the CCG: 70% chance if we're in Palo Alto, 40% chance if we're at UCLA (meaning we lost the week before. Assume in 80% of Stanford in the CCG scenarios that we're the home team)
0.65 * ( 0.80 * 0.7+ 0.20 * 0.4) = 41.6%
I still wonder if we would have had a better chance of going to the Rose Bowl by losing to Oregon. With KSU losing, an undefeated ND goes to the NCG, removing that temptation from the RB committee. Then we'd only have to beat a UCLA team that may be resting ahead of the Friday CCG against the Ducks to shore up a 9-3 record and likely spot in the BCS top 14.
Oh well, I guess the boys will just have to do it the (new) old fashioned way and beat UCLA twice.