[OCcardinal]

Gee, we’re 8-1 and we get this on a “fan” board. 
Maybe we should start discussing politics so we don’t disagree so much

To be fair, that one loss was one of the worst losses Stanford Women's Basketball has had in many years (worse than the SMU loss last season in my view).  If we hadn't come back and beaten a talented Colorado State team the next day I might be in panic mode. So I think people are trying to figure out how to use all of the talent on this team to ensure better outcomes the rest of the season.

I really liked Amborn coming in with 1:27 left in the 1st half of the Colorado State game. We hadn't hit a jumper all quarter and it took only 47 seconds until Amborn hit her 3. And Colorado State didn't score in that minute and a half. She played 7.5 minutes in the next quarter too, but wasn't quite as productive in that sequence.  She took/hit only one 2 pointer (with a nice Euro step) and missed two free throws.  Still, Amborn finished +6 for the quarter (and +9 for her full 9 minutes), so her defense doesn't seem to be a major liability (at least against a team of Colorado State's ability).

On the other hand, I don't know what Paye saw with Alex in the Colorado State game. I didn't get to see the game, but looking at the play by play, I see that in the first quarter she had a steal and a foul in 45 seconds and was subbed out.  Neither team scored in those 45 seconds. It was a very short leash for someone unlikely to play long enough to foul out.

In the second quarter Alex played 3 minutes, had 1 rebound, no shot attempts and Stanford had a +/- of -2.  The 1st 30 seconds of her 2nd qtr sequence she played with Nunu and the remaining 2:30 with Lara.  We never saw her again. I do not see evidence that she was a defensive liability in the game.  Maybe it's just that the offense wasn't flowing. I had some concerns about her defense in some of the all star games this summer, but that was against all top players.  

In high school she had the 2nd most double-doubles in Colorado history. So there's got to be more we can get out of her this season, even if she has a lot of development to do. Alex's defensive rating and rebound percentage are both in the 95th percentile for all NCAA Players so far and her points per play are in the 73rd percentile. But her usage rate is only 18.9%/51st percentile.  (Betts' usage rate was 26.6%/92nd percentile her freshman year, so she was involved in plays when she was on the floor.)  I hope Coach Paye can figure out how to get Alex the ball more when she's on the floor. She's actually averaging more minutes per game than Betts did so far (12.5 vs 9.6).  And she doesn't have two lottery pick bigs ahead of her.

That said, it shouldn't be a total surprise that Alex isn't averaging more than 20 minutes despite her recruiting ranking.  Here's what Herhoopstats says about freshmen minutes based on 2015-2025 data:

Point guards
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 22–26
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~55–65%
Typical reasons for minutes Immediate ball-handling need, high-skill recruits

Wings (2/3)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 20–24
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~45–55%
Typical reasons for minutes Perimeter skill translates faster, defensive versatility

Combo forwards (stretch 4s)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 16–20
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~30–40%
Typical reasons for minutes Some spacing helps, but still defend bigger bodies

Traditional post players (4–5)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 12-16
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~15–25%
Typical reasons for minutes Physical development lag, foul trouble, veteran bigs blocking path. A freshman post needs to learn footwork, verticality, rebounding angles, and how to finish through contact — all of which take 1–3 years against college physicality.

Swain is averaging 23.9 minutes per game, Somfai 21.2 and Alex 12.5. So it seems our big 3 frosh are on a typical pace (Somfai a bit ahead of pace), as long as they don't start getting benched more as the competition gets tougher.

[OCcardinal]

Gee, we’re 8-1 and we get this on a “fan” board. 
Maybe we should start discussing politics so we don’t disagree so much

To be fair, that one loss was one of the worst losses Stanford Women's Basketball has had in many years (worse than the SMU loss last season in my view).  If we hadn't come back and beaten a talented Colorado State team the next day I might be in panic mode. So I think people are trying to figure out how to use all of the talent on this team to ensure better outcomes the rest of the season.

I really liked Amborn coming in with 1:27 left in the 1st half of the Colorado State game. We hadn't hit a jumper all quarter and it took only 47 seconds until Amborn hit her 3. And Colorado State didn't score in that minute and a half. She played 7.5 minutes in the next quarter too, but wasn't quite as productive in that sequence.  She took/hit only one 2 pointer (with a nice Euro step) and missed two free throws.  Still, Amborn finished +6 for the quarter (and +9 for her full 9 minutes), so her defense doesn't seem to be a major liability (at least against a team of Colorado State's ability).

On the other hand, I don't know what Paye saw with Alex in the Colorado State game. I didn't get to see the game, but looking at the play by play, I see that in the first quarter she had a steal and a foul in 45 seconds and was subbed out.  Neither team scored in those 45 seconds. It was a very short leash for someone unlikely to play long enough to foul out.

In the second quarter Alex played 3 minutes, had 1 rebound, no shot attempts and Stanford had a +/- of -2.  The 1st 30 seconds of her 2nd qtr sequence she played with Nunu and the remaining 2:30 with Lara.  We never saw her again. I do not see evidence that she was a defensive liability in the game.  Maybe it's just that the offense wasn't flowing. I had some concerns about her defense in some of the all star games this summer, but that was against all top players.  

In high school she had the 2nd most double-doubles in Colorado history. So there's got to be more we can get out of her this season, even if she has a lot of development to do. Alex's defensive rating and rebound percentage are both in the 95th percentile for all NCAA Players so far and her points per play are in the 73rd percentile. But her usage rate is only 18.9%/51st percentile.  (Betts' usage rate was 26.6%/92nd percentile her freshman year, so she was involved in plays when she was on the floor.)  I hope Coach Paye can figure out how to get Alex the ball more when she's on the floor. She's actually averaging more minutes per game than Betts did so far (12.5 vs 9.6).  And she doesn't have two lottery pick bigs ahead of her.

That said, it shouldn't be a total surprise that Alex isn't averaging more than 20 minutes despite her recruiting ranking.  Here's what Herhoopstats says about freshmen minutes based on 2015-2025 data:

Point guards
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 22–26
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~55–65%
Typical reasons for minutes Immediate ball-handling need, high-skill recruits

Wings (2/3)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 20–24
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~45–55%
Typical reasons for minutes Perimeter skill translates faster, defensive versatility

Combo forwards (stretch 4s)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 16–20
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~30–40%
Typical reasons for minutes Some spacing helps, but still defend bigger bodies

Traditional post players (4–5)
Position Min Avg. MPG as Freshman 12-16
% of freshmen who average ≥20 MPG ~15–25%
Typical reasons for minutes Physical development lag, foul trouble, veteran bigs blocking path. A freshman post needs to learn footwork, verticality, rebounding angles, and how to finish through contact — all of which take 1–3 years against college physicality.

Swain is averaging 23.9 minutes per game, Somfai 21.2 and Alex 12.5. So it seems our big 3 frosh are on a typical pace (Somfai a bit ahead of pace), as long as they don't start getting benched more as the competition gets tougher.