[crackpot]

Well we pull it out. There were some doubtful moments but we got it done.
Nice.

Florida State led 5-4 at the 7:33 mark in the first quarter.  That was its only lead of the game, and it was ahead for a grand total of 1% of the game.  Stanford took a 10 point lead midway through the second quarter, at which point ESPN’s win probability meter hit 90%.  By the start of the second half, Stanford was given a 98.4% win probability.  At the end of the third quarter, it was “down” to a 96.3%, and that was the low mark for the second half.  I wouldn’t characterize a game in which you have over a 95% chance of winning in the entire second half as “doubtful”.

BC

Tell that to Duke.

I literally made a screenshot of our 99.9% probability of winning with 2+ minutes to go and sent it to a friend asking why I was still nervous. She verified that we've seen worse things happen.

 
yes, duke was leading 40-30 at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

ESPN's probabilities have always seemed to sway too extremely to me. I don't know how anyone would say a team that is (a) on the road; (b) has won 1 Sunday road game all season; © has lost 8 of the last 10 games; and (d) has seen a 23 point lead dwindle to 8 points has a 97% chance of winning with 4:20 left. Maybe it really is the case that 97 out of 100 times that team wins, but I feel like experientially, those kinds of games feel very "doubtful" to me, too. And I suspect ESPN's algorithm is not takign into consideration (b) and © at all.

Yes, definitely in the latter half of this season, I'd say the point spread is usually more accurate. I'm pretty sure ESPN's analytics don't account for, say, Talana's absence or the several games in which we missed Nunu. And we definitely play better at home than on the road.

[crackpot]

Well we pull it out. There were some doubtful moments but we got it done.
Nice.

Florida State led 5-4 at the 7:33 mark in the first quarter.  That was its only lead of the game, and it was ahead for a grand total of 1% of the game.  Stanford took a 10 point lead midway through the second quarter, at which point ESPN’s win probability meter hit 90%.  By the start of the second half, Stanford was given a 98.4% win probability.  At the end of the third quarter, it was “down” to a 96.3%, and that was the low mark for the second half.  I wouldn’t characterize a game in which you have over a 95% chance of winning in the entire second half as “doubtful”.

BC

Tell that to Duke.

I literally made a screenshot of our 99.9% probability of winning with 2+ minutes to go and sent it to a friend asking why I was still nervous. She verified that we've seen worse things happen.

 
yes, duke was leading 40-30 at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

ESPN's probabilities have always seemed to sway too extremely to me. I don't know how anyone would say a team that is (a) on the road; (b) has won 1 Sunday road game all season; © has lost 8 of the last 10 games; and (d) has seen a 23 point lead dwindle to 8 points has a 97% chance of winning with 4:20 left. Maybe it really is the case that 97 out of 100 times that team wins, but I feel like experientially, those kinds of games feel very "doubtful" to me, too. And I suspect ESPN's algorithm is not takign into consideration (b) and © at all.

Yes, definitely in the latter half of this season, I'd say the point spread is usually more accurate. I'm pretty sure ESPN's analytics don't account for, say, Talana's absence or the several games in which we missed Nunu. And we definitely play better at home than on the road.