12-09-2013, 03:53 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2013, 03:55 AM by metsjetsfan.)
Given that I've read in numerous places that Michigan State has one of the top defenses in the nation (statistically #1 run defense, #4 in points allowed/game), and that many writers have joked about a "first to 20 points" type of game, I was curious to see what offenses they've played against in the Big 10.
With some research, I found that only 2 of the 13 offenses they've played this year (Ohio State and Indiana) finished in the top 40 in total yards in the nation (out of 120 FBS teams). Four teams (Western Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota, South Florida) finished in the bottom 20 in the nation in total yards, and a fifth team is a FCS team (Youngstown St).
In contrast for Stanford, 7 of 12 offenses (8 of 13 if you include Arizona State twice) finished in the top 40 in the nation in total yards. Only one offense was in the bottom 20 (Army at 87th). The next lowest were Utah (77th) and Notre Dame (75th).
Now, perhaps Pac-12 defenses are significantly inferior to Big-10 defenses, and the Pac-12 up-tempo spread attack schemes are more conducive to high scoring teams. Also total yards may not be the best measure of an offense's success, though I think a quick glance at points/game stats tells generally the same story. Regardless, I think there's a very strong case to make that Michigan State's defensive stats have been padded by playing against some very weak offenses.
Given all this, I have serious doubt in my mind that this Michigan State's defense is nearly as formidable as we've been made to believe, and likely not at the same level as Stanford's defense. Stanford's old-school, huddle-up offense is ranked 40th in the nation in total yards, which would be the 3rd best offense that Michigan State has faced so far this year. By points/game, Stanford would be the 4th (out of 14) highest scoring offense that the Spartans have faced. Granted, Ohio State and Indiana were held to just 24 and 28 points respectively against Michigan State. But with the way the offense has played the last few weeks, hanging 27 and 38 points against decent defenses in ND and ASU, I think its more likely than not that Stanford scores more than 20 points against this defense.
On the flip side, Michigan State's offense is in the middle of the pack in total yards at 64th, ranking fewer than all but 3 offenses that Stanford has faced this year. In points/game, their offense would be the 6th (out of 13) highest scoring offense that Stanford has faced. Against common opponent Notre Dame, Michigan State only managed 13 points and 254 yards. Their offense has also had the propensity for plain ineptitude, scoring 14 or fewer points in 3 games this season (Stanford's lowest scoring output was 17 against U$C). With the defense not giving up more than 20 points since losing to Utah, and the fact that the Spartan offense is average relative to both the nation and Stanford's opponents, I have a lot of confidence that our defense can (perhaps easily) hold Michigan State's offense to fewer than 20 points.
Thus, if this is a "first to 20" type of game, I have a lot of faith that Stanford will, rather easily, do just that, and I think the ~1.5 point spread is far too generous to the Spartans. In fact, I predict a roughly 28-14 type of game in favor of Stanford.
But I've only seen just parts of the ND/OSU games - perhaps others on this board who have watched Michigan State more can weigh in? I do respect and believe that the Spartan defense is very good (perhaps comparable to the ND defense), but are they truly elite? Are there others who also think we should be much more than 1.5 point favorites, or am I just being too optimistic/biased in evaluating the numbers??
With some research, I found that only 2 of the 13 offenses they've played this year (Ohio State and Indiana) finished in the top 40 in total yards in the nation (out of 120 FBS teams). Four teams (Western Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota, South Florida) finished in the bottom 20 in the nation in total yards, and a fifth team is a FCS team (Youngstown St).
In contrast for Stanford, 7 of 12 offenses (8 of 13 if you include Arizona State twice) finished in the top 40 in the nation in total yards. Only one offense was in the bottom 20 (Army at 87th). The next lowest were Utah (77th) and Notre Dame (75th).
Now, perhaps Pac-12 defenses are significantly inferior to Big-10 defenses, and the Pac-12 up-tempo spread attack schemes are more conducive to high scoring teams. Also total yards may not be the best measure of an offense's success, though I think a quick glance at points/game stats tells generally the same story. Regardless, I think there's a very strong case to make that Michigan State's defensive stats have been padded by playing against some very weak offenses.
Given all this, I have serious doubt in my mind that this Michigan State's defense is nearly as formidable as we've been made to believe, and likely not at the same level as Stanford's defense. Stanford's old-school, huddle-up offense is ranked 40th in the nation in total yards, which would be the 3rd best offense that Michigan State has faced so far this year. By points/game, Stanford would be the 4th (out of 14) highest scoring offense that the Spartans have faced. Granted, Ohio State and Indiana were held to just 24 and 28 points respectively against Michigan State. But with the way the offense has played the last few weeks, hanging 27 and 38 points against decent defenses in ND and ASU, I think its more likely than not that Stanford scores more than 20 points against this defense.
On the flip side, Michigan State's offense is in the middle of the pack in total yards at 64th, ranking fewer than all but 3 offenses that Stanford has faced this year. In points/game, their offense would be the 6th (out of 13) highest scoring offense that Stanford has faced. Against common opponent Notre Dame, Michigan State only managed 13 points and 254 yards. Their offense has also had the propensity for plain ineptitude, scoring 14 or fewer points in 3 games this season (Stanford's lowest scoring output was 17 against U$C). With the defense not giving up more than 20 points since losing to Utah, and the fact that the Spartan offense is average relative to both the nation and Stanford's opponents, I have a lot of confidence that our defense can (perhaps easily) hold Michigan State's offense to fewer than 20 points.
Thus, if this is a "first to 20" type of game, I have a lot of faith that Stanford will, rather easily, do just that, and I think the ~1.5 point spread is far too generous to the Spartans. In fact, I predict a roughly 28-14 type of game in favor of Stanford.
But I've only seen just parts of the ND/OSU games - perhaps others on this board who have watched Michigan State more can weigh in? I do respect and believe that the Spartan defense is very good (perhaps comparable to the ND defense), but are they truly elite? Are there others who also think we should be much more than 1.5 point favorites, or am I just being too optimistic/biased in evaluating the numbers??