[BostonCard]

https://twitter.com/ChantelJennings/stat...2743459840

We are now favored to win all our remaining scheduled games, though UCLA (64%), Cal (71%) and UDFG (58%) are all tough games.  We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://twitter.com/ChantelJennings/stat...2743459840

We are now favored to win all our remaining scheduled games, though UCLA (64%), Cal (71%) and UDFG (58%) are all tough games.  We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.

BC

[Mick]

Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.

[Mick]

Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.

[DC]

Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.

Poetic justice.  We messed up the symmetry of the Pac-10 in the hope of getting Texas.  Texas reneged on us, and we were stuck messing up the conference and had to take Utah and Colorado.  Now, Cal beats Texas, and Utah has gotten good. Karma.

[DC]

Well I would certainly enjoy seeing Stanford vs. Utah at Levi Stadium on December 5 for the Pac-12 championship.

Poetic justice.  We messed up the symmetry of the Pac-10 in the hope of getting Texas.  Texas reneged on us, and we were stuck messing up the conference and had to take Utah and Colorado.  Now, Cal beats Texas, and Utah has gotten good. Karma.

[FarmBoy]

How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?

[FarmBoy]

How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?

[winflop]

How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?

ESPN has something they call the Football Power Index (FPI) that they use to calculate these probabilities.  Probably all based on Monte Carlo simulations.

[winflop]

How are the game win probabilities assigned? Is that a black box or do they use a public source?

ESPN has something they call the Football Power Index (FPI) that they use to calculate these probabilities.  Probably all based on Monte Carlo simulations.

[washingtonismoney]

We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.

I'm no mathematician, but I don't understand how we can have only a 7 percent chance of winning the conference championship game yet a 47 percent chance of winning the conference, when the latter requires the former.

7% chance of winning out -- i.e. winning all the rest of the games. We could easily go, say, 6-3 or 7-2 in-conference and win the North.

[washingtonismoney]

We are up to a 7.3% chance of running the table (I believe including the conference championship game) and a 47% chance of winning the conference.

I'm no mathematician, but I don't understand how we can have only a 7 percent chance of winning the conference championship game yet a 47 percent chance of winning the conference, when the latter requires the former.

7% chance of winning out -- i.e. winning all the rest of the games. We could easily go, say, 6-3 or 7-2 in-conference and win the North.