12-09-2015, 06:05 PM
63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win
AncientCityIndian
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12-09-2015, 06:38 PM
If he can win the Northeast, you can engrave his name on the stiff arm trophy. Book it
If he can win the Northeast, you can engrave his name on the stiff arm trophy. Book it
12-09-2015, 07:07 PM
Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.
AncientCityIndian
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12-09-2015, 07:18 PM
McCaffrey should dominate the vote in the West. If he wins big in the Northeast, he has a big chance. The Southeast should be split between Henry and Watson, with Henry getting the lion`s share. There is no guarantee but Christian could win.
McCaffrey should dominate the vote in the West. If he wins big in the Northeast, he has a big chance. The Southeast should be split between Henry and Watson, with Henry getting the lion`s share. There is no guarantee but Christian could win.
12-09-2015, 07:23 PM
(12-09-2015, 07:07 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.
You should put literally no faith in it. This doesn't mean anything.
12-09-2015, 08:18 PM
![[Image: election_night1-e1351364662203_0.jpg]](http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/2012/10/election_night1-e1351364662203_0.jpg)
Yeah, I just stare at my desk, but it looks like I'm working .I'd say in a given week I probably only do about fifteen minutes of real, actual, work. Peter Gibbons
12-09-2015, 08:31 PM
(12-09-2015, 07:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13994.msg147158#msg147158 date=1449713267]
Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.
You should put literally no faith in it. This doesn't mean anything.
[/quote]
You are probably right. But, I don't think that sports writers have a vastly superior knowledge about football than the average fan. Nor do I think that the majority of the Voldemort voters study all of the available information and then make a rational decision. I think they make a decision based upon flashy plays and story lines, and then find and/or create facts to support their decision.
(12-09-2015, 07:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13994.msg147158#msg147158 date=1449713267]
Those are just fan votes on the nj.com website, so wouldn't put too much faith in that.
You should put literally no faith in it. This doesn't mean anything.
[/quote]
You are probably right. But, I don't think that sports writers have a vastly superior knowledge about football than the average fan. Nor do I think that the majority of the Voldemort voters study all of the available information and then make a rational decision. I think they make a decision based upon flashy plays and story lines, and then find and/or create facts to support their decision.
12-09-2015, 08:37 PM
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.
12-09-2015, 08:46 PM
(12-09-2015, 08:37 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.
The book makers don't set these lines by who they think is the best candidate. The lines are set by how they think gamblers, not the Voldemort voters, will bet.
(12-09-2015, 08:37 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.
The book makers don't set these lines by who they think is the best candidate. The lines are set by how they think gamblers, not the Voldemort voters, will bet.
12-09-2015, 09:13 PM
Yeah this is one case where I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. There's just not enough public information out there about what the voters are thinking. You could, if you wanted to, try to do the old Stiffarmtrophy thing and go through every Voldemort voter's public statements and try to handicap it, or look at news coverage and try to figure out some kind of favorability rating, but I'm not sure any of those things will be accurate at all. It's also not clear to me how active this market is, which matters for the sort of "wisdom of the crowds" Vegas lines usually imply.
I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.
I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.
Yeah this is one case where I wouldn't read too much into Vegas odds. There's just not enough public information out there about what the voters are thinking. You could, if you wanted to, try to do the old Stiffarmtrophy thing and go through every Voldemort voter's public statements and try to handicap it, or look at news coverage and try to figure out some kind of favorability rating, but I'm not sure any of those things will be accurate at all. It's also not clear to me how active this market is, which matters for the sort of "wisdom of the crowds" Vegas lines usually imply.
I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.
I think it'll be close, and I think McCaffrey has a real chance, but it does seem like Henry's probably the favorite.
12-09-2015, 09:44 PM
I'm pretty sure the surge of support for McCaffery came too late. Minds changed now won't impact ballots placed earlier in the week.Â
I wonder if the ban on exposing Voldemort voting preferences had the unintended consequence of fewer media stories ranking the Voldemort candidates throughout the season?
I wonder if the ban on exposing Voldemort voting preferences had the unintended consequence of fewer media stories ranking the Voldemort candidates throughout the season?
In 1938 Neville Chamberlain declared "Peace in our time", Superman first appeared in Action Comics, Seabiscuit beat War Admiral ....... and C.a.l last won the Rose Bowl.
I'm pretty sure the surge of support for McCaffery came too late. Minds changed now won't impact ballots placed earlier in the week.Â
I wonder if the ban on exposing Voldemort voting preferences had the unintended consequence of fewer media stories ranking the Voldemort candidates throughout the season?
I wonder if the ban on exposing Voldemort voting preferences had the unintended consequence of fewer media stories ranking the Voldemort candidates throughout the season?
In 1938 Neville Chamberlain declared "Peace in our time", Superman first appeared in Action Comics, Seabiscuit beat War Admiral ....... and C.a.l last won the Rose Bowl.
12-09-2015, 10:48 PM
It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
12-10-2015, 12:17 AM
(12-09-2015, 10:48 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
Some of those tweets and articles were written by Voldemort voters!
(12-09-2015, 10:48 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
Some of those tweets and articles were written by Voldemort voters!
12-10-2015, 01:26 AM
I tried a search and I couldn't find a hit. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it's been listed elsewhere, but I do like this summary rant so here it is, from Rule of Tree:
http://www.ruleoftree.com/2015/12/9/9876...-Voldemort
http://www.ruleoftree.com/2015/12/9/9876...-Voldemort
I tried a search and I couldn't find a hit. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it's been listed elsewhere, but I do like this summary rant so here it is, from Rule of Tree:
http://www.ruleoftree.com/2015/12/9/9876...-Voldemort
http://www.ruleoftree.com/2015/12/9/9876...-Voldemort
12-10-2015, 02:47 AM
(12-09-2015, 10:48 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:It was odd that before Tuesday, all I read was about how Henry is the favorite.
Then Tuesday morning comes and all I read is McCaffrey praise.Â
What's that all about?
We must be listening to the same echo chambers...
12-10-2015, 07:26 AM
The Recency Effect seems likely to take over. We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes.Â
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
The Recency Effect seems likely to take over. We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes.Â
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
12-10-2015, 07:33 AM
(12-10-2015, 07:26 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:The Recency Effect seems likely to take over. We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes.Â
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
There are of course two problems with that.
One is that the votes were in Monday, so any surge happening now is too late.
The second is that Gerhart had a Mac-like game vs und to finish off 2009, and it didn't win it for him.
(12-10-2015, 07:26 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:The Recency Effect seems likely to take over. We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes.Â
Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort. With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.
There are of course two problems with that.
One is that the votes were in Monday, so any surge happening now is too late.
The second is that Gerhart had a Mac-like game vs und to finish off 2009, and it didn't win it for him.
12-10-2015, 07:34 AM
Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry. That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.
Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry. That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.
12-10-2015, 07:41 AM
(12-10-2015, 07:34 AM)Ronnietrader link Wrote:Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry. That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.
While I think that is true, I also think that McCaffrey is a stronger candidate than was Gerhart. Which strikes me as interesting as I never quite thought about the two races in that way before.
At the moment I think that McCaffrey's case versus the opposition is stronger than was Gerhart's, but that could be mostly because it's happening right now.
(12-10-2015, 07:34 AM)Ronnietrader link Wrote:Also, Mark Ingram was a much weaker candidate than Henry. That being said, I'm remaining optimistic because it's less fun not to be.
While I think that is true, I also think that McCaffrey is a stronger candidate than was Gerhart. Which strikes me as interesting as I never quite thought about the two races in that way before.
At the moment I think that McCaffrey's case versus the opposition is stronger than was Gerhart's, but that could be mostly because it's happening right now.
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