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I take a somewhat dimmer view on the remainder of the schedule. The rest of the teams we face will be better than OSU, and we needed a last minute field goal to beat them. Looking at what’s coming up:
UW: as you pointed out, will be tough. They have the running game to carve us up down the middle, and the defense to make keeping up with them tough. I haven’t looked, but I expect to be about 2 TD underdogs
Bye: I think we can avoid a loss here
UCLA: I guess this depends on which UCLA team shows up. If it’s the team that sliced and diced WSU, we’re in trouble. If it’s the team that struggled against every other team on its schedule, we might be able to eek out a win at home. I figure we will be favored by about a field goal.
Arizona: it might depend on whether Arizona has Tate and/or Taylor back. With them, I’d expect them to be favored by between a field goal and a touchdown, despite playing on the road. Without them, we will probably be slightly favored.
@Colorado: another game that could go either way. This is a team that beat Nebraska, and we are playing at Colorado. I expect them to be favored by a bit more than a field goal.
@WSU: yeah, WSU is going through a rough patch, and though we can make fun of Leach, the truth is that they are a bad matchup for us. We simply don’t have the secondary to keep up with them, and we are playing at WSU. I expect WSU to be favored by over ten points.
Cal: Cal is for real, and though they may have trouble if Garbers can’t play for a while, I don’t see our offense having much success against their defense. They will be favored by about a touchdown; more if Garbers is back.
UDFG: uh, yeah. Despite playing at home, they’re the best team remaining on our schedule. I could see them favored by 15-20 points.
Put it all together, and I think we can squeeze out three wins in the last 7 games. It is hard to see where the fourth win comes, though I guess a team like WSU could self destruct down the stretch, or Cal could fall apart if Garbers is out the rest of the year. 7-5 seems like very Cardinal colored glasses way of looking at it. And there’s downside risk too, and you could see a situation where we get 2 or fewer wins in our remaining schedule.
BC