[82lsju]

"Twenty percent of Americans anticipate that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available to the public before the end of the year, while 61% expect it during 2021 and only 17% think it will take longer than that.

If a vaccine against coronavirus becomes available to the public, 49% say they plan to get vaccinated, and 20% say they will not. Another 31% are not sure."

http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/Expectations-for-a-COVID-19-Vaccine.aspx

[82lsju]

"Twenty percent of Americans anticipate that a COVID-19 vaccine will be available to the public before the end of the year, while 61% expect it during 2021 and only 17% think it will take longer than that.

If a vaccine against coronavirus becomes available to the public, 49% say they plan to get vaccinated, and 20% say they will not. Another 31% are not sure."

http://www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/Expectations-for-a-COVID-19-Vaccine.aspx

[BobK]

Good the line will be shorter for me

[BobK]

Good the line will be shorter for me

[OutsiderFan]

Good the line will be shorter for me

If 50% say they will get vaccinated, 20% say they won't, and any of the 30% undecideds don't get vaccinated, we won't get herd immunity and the vaccine won't stop virus spread. IIRC, it has been suggested we need 80% of people with immunity to stop spread?

[OutsiderFan]

Good the line will be shorter for me

If 50% say they will get vaccinated, 20% say they won't, and any of the 30% undecideds don't get vaccinated, we won't get herd immunity and the vaccine won't stop virus spread. IIRC, it has been suggested we need 80% of people with immunity to stop spread?

[oregontim]

Good the line will be shorter for me

I'm with you Bob. After my wife and I get vaccinated (and not until) we'll be hosting grandchildren and traveling again. Solves our problem.

[oregontim]

Good the line will be shorter for me

I'm with you Bob. After my wife and I get vaccinated (and not until) we'll be hosting grandchildren and traveling again. Solves our problem.

[dabigv13]

The number needed to vaccinate to achieve herd immunity depends on if prior exposure to other coronaviruses confers some partial degree of immunity and also how many people have had COVID19 already in a population (presuming immunity after infection, but a necessary assumption if we are to get a working vaccine), as well as what the transmissibility of the virus is, which we only have estimates for right now.

I think if we can vaccinate 50% of the population, we'd be in pretty good shape. It's more people than get the annual flu shot.

Even after herd immunity, non immune individuals would still be at risk, and you could get significant outbreaks if you have a big cluster of people who are nonimmune, say a school or church of non-vaxxers.

[dabigv13]

The number needed to vaccinate to achieve herd immunity depends on if prior exposure to other coronaviruses confers some partial degree of immunity and also how many people have had COVID19 already in a population (presuming immunity after infection, but a necessary assumption if we are to get a working vaccine), as well as what the transmissibility of the virus is, which we only have estimates for right now.

I think if we can vaccinate 50% of the population, we'd be in pretty good shape. It's more people than get the annual flu shot.

Even after herd immunity, non immune individuals would still be at risk, and you could get significant outbreaks if you have a big cluster of people who are nonimmune, say a school or church of non-vaxxers.

[BostonCard]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

BC

[BostonCard]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

BC

[oldalum]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

but you are an essential contributor to the CardBoard, that oughta count for something!

[oldalum]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

but you are an essential contributor to the CardBoard, that oughta count for something!

[BostonCard]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

but you are an essential contributor to the CardBoard, that oughta count for something!

That and $4 will get me a fancy coffee at Starbucks.

BC

[BostonCard]

I will be, but I will probably be the lowest priority.  I'm no longer a healthcare worker, I can work from home and not an essential worker, am under 45, and not in a hotspot.

but you are an essential contributor to the CardBoard, that oughta count for something!

That and $4 will get me a fancy coffee at Starbucks.

BC

[M T]

That and $4 will get me a fancy coffee at Starbucks.

And, if you get a table at Starbucks, who knows, you might get even more.


I hope not.  Oldalum is right, you are essential here.  
And, boy, are you prolific!  I tip my hat to someone who is staying on top of this more than I can.

[M T]

That and $4 will get me a fancy coffee at Starbucks.

And, if you get a table at Starbucks, who knows, you might get even more.


I hope not.  Oldalum is right, you are essential here.  
And, boy, are you prolific!  I tip my hat to someone who is staying on top of this more than I can.

[Leftcoast]

Is there any legal reason a private business could not require proof of vaccination (or an approved exemption) prior to allowing people to return to work?

At first glance that would seem helpful and legal.  Maybe even essential for workers in Senior Centers and LTHC centers.

[Leftcoast]

Is there any legal reason a private business could not require proof of vaccination (or an approved exemption) prior to allowing people to return to work?

At first glance that would seem helpful and legal.  Maybe even essential for workers in Senior Centers and LTHC centers.

[akiddoc]

Many if not most states will require vaccination for school entry once we have a vaccine with wide availability. That goes for all levels including college.

---

Is there any legal reason a private business could not require proof of vaccination (or an approved exemption) prior to allowing people to return to work?

At first glance that would seem helpful and legal.  Maybe even essential for workers in Senior Centers and LTHC centers.

Every hospital and medical organization requires that I am immune to a whole host of diseases in order to work. I have to be vaccinated or prove antibody titers are adequate.

[akiddoc]

Many if not most states will require vaccination for school entry once we have a vaccine with wide availability. That goes for all levels including college.

---

Is there any legal reason a private business could not require proof of vaccination (or an approved exemption) prior to allowing people to return to work?

At first glance that would seem helpful and legal.  Maybe even essential for workers in Senior Centers and LTHC centers.

Every hospital and medical organization requires that I am immune to a whole host of diseases in order to work. I have to be vaccinated or prove antibody titers are adequate.

[Farm93]

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.

[Farm93]

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.

[Genuine Realist]

I still remember the Salk vaccine on sugar cubes in the early 60's. My dad told me later that the only guy in the country who actually contracted polio lived nearby.

I'll get vaccinated for sure. But maybe I'll squirrel out a cube for BC. Indispensable in my book.

[Genuine Realist]

I still remember the Salk vaccine on sugar cubes in the early 60's. My dad told me later that the only guy in the country who actually contracted polio lived nearby.

I'll get vaccinated for sure. But maybe I'll squirrel out a cube for BC. Indispensable in my book.

[BostonCard]

We may need sugar cubes if we aren't able to get enough vials to distribute the vaccine.

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/coron...ck/578793/


[*]

The world will likely need billions of doses of any vaccine that's proven safe and effective against the new coronavirus. But there's not enough glass vials to hold all those doses, creating another supply headache for drugmakers to solve as they work feverishly to complete clinical testing in record time.

BC

[BostonCard]

We may need sugar cubes if we aren't able to get enough vials to distribute the vaccine.

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/coron...ck/578793/


[*]

The world will likely need billions of doses of any vaccine that's proven safe and effective against the new coronavirus. But there's not enough glass vials to hold all those doses, creating another supply headache for drugmakers to solve as they work feverishly to complete clinical testing in record time.

BC

[Genuine Realist]

Well, a spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down. 

So that'll work.

[Genuine Realist]

Well, a spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down. 

So that'll work.

[akiddoc]

I still remember the Salk vaccine on sugar cubes in the early 60's. My dad told me later that the only guy in the country who actually contracted polio lived nearby.

I'll get vaccinated for sure. But maybe I'll squirrel out a cube for BC. Indispensable in my book.

The vaccine on sugar cubes was the oral Sabin vaccine. 

The Sabin live virus vaccine was introduced in 1961. The Salk injectable killed virus vaccine was introduced in 1955. The incidence of polio had already decreased pretty dramatically in the US by 1961 to about 1000 symptomatic cases per year. I think it was 700 in 1962. The Sabin vaccine was much easier to administer and much cheaper, enabling its widespread use throughout the world. 95 to 99% of polio virus infections are asymptomatic. In the early 1950's paralytic polio cases spiked to 21,000 in a single year. Cases were down somewhat by 1955 due to social distancing. I know my parents did not allow us to play with other children during the summer even though we were vaccinated, which was the peak time of transmission for the illness. I was born in 1956. 

There are currently 3 countries known to be harboring wild polio virus type 1: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria. The military conflicts and social upheaval present in those countries have damaged efforts to finally eradicating the wild type virus. Wild types 2 and 3 have been eradicated. 

The Sabin vaccine causes paralytic polio in about 1 or 2 people out of 1 million doses given. There were about 5-8 cases per year in the USA until we stopped using the Sabin vaccine and switched to the Salk about 20 years ago. Worldwide, there are outbreaks of vaccine derived polio every year in countries with lower immunity levels. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6845a4.htm

[akiddoc]

I still remember the Salk vaccine on sugar cubes in the early 60's. My dad told me later that the only guy in the country who actually contracted polio lived nearby.

I'll get vaccinated for sure. But maybe I'll squirrel out a cube for BC. Indispensable in my book.

The vaccine on sugar cubes was the oral Sabin vaccine. 

The Sabin live virus vaccine was introduced in 1961. The Salk injectable killed virus vaccine was introduced in 1955. The incidence of polio had already decreased pretty dramatically in the US by 1961 to about 1000 symptomatic cases per year. I think it was 700 in 1962. The Sabin vaccine was much easier to administer and much cheaper, enabling its widespread use throughout the world. 95 to 99% of polio virus infections are asymptomatic. In the early 1950's paralytic polio cases spiked to 21,000 in a single year. Cases were down somewhat by 1955 due to social distancing. I know my parents did not allow us to play with other children during the summer even though we were vaccinated, which was the peak time of transmission for the illness. I was born in 1956. 

There are currently 3 countries known to be harboring wild polio virus type 1: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria. The military conflicts and social upheaval present in those countries have damaged efforts to finally eradicating the wild type virus. Wild types 2 and 3 have been eradicated. 

The Sabin vaccine causes paralytic polio in about 1 or 2 people out of 1 million doses given. There were about 5-8 cases per year in the USA until we stopped using the Sabin vaccine and switched to the Salk about 20 years ago. Worldwide, there are outbreaks of vaccine derived polio every year in countries with lower immunity levels. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6845a4.htm

[here4WBB]

I agree with your predicted timing and priorities for who would be the first to be vaccinated.  I don't know if just being at risk because my husband and I are old qualify us for early vaccination.  I think not, and both of us can conduct our work from home.  There might be some benefit in waiting out the first rounds of vaccination and how the science improves. One concern is that vaccination may not work as well on the elderly.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ange-that/

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.

[here4WBB]

I agree with your predicted timing and priorities for who would be the first to be vaccinated.  I don't know if just being at risk because my husband and I are old qualify us for early vaccination.  I think not, and both of us can conduct our work from home.  There might be some benefit in waiting out the first rounds of vaccination and how the science improves. One concern is that vaccination may not work as well on the elderly.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ange-that/

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.

[BostonCard]

Apropos polio, one of the last remaining polio survivors still on an iron lung was profiled.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020...oronavirus

BC

[BostonCard]

Apropos polio, one of the last remaining polio survivors still on an iron lung was profiled.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020...oronavirus

BC

[murky]

I got a pretty sobering wake up call when I told some family members the sad news that only 1/2 of the people surveyed said they would take the hypothetical vaccine.  Several of them said they probably wouldn't, at least not right away, and thought most Black folks wouldn't either.

There remains deep suspicion and aggrieved resentment towards government and medical institutions.

[murky]

I got a pretty sobering wake up call when I told some family members the sad news that only 1/2 of the people surveyed said they would take the hypothetical vaccine.  Several of them said they probably wouldn't, at least not right away, and thought most Black folks wouldn't either.

There remains deep suspicion and aggrieved resentment towards government and medical institutions.

[akiddoc]

I got a pretty sobering wake up call when I told some family members the sad news that only 1/2 of the people surveyed said they would take the hypothetical vaccine.  Several of them said they probably wouldn't, at least not right away, and thought most Black folks wouldn't either.

There remains deep suspicion and aggrieved resentment towards government and medical institutions.

I work in a clinic which serves a population that is 80% poor racial minorities. If the vaccine is NOT influenza, we almost never get vaccine refusal. I also work at an institution that is 80% racial minorities in a very affluent area. Vaccine refusal is very rare there. Vaccine refusal in my experience is mostly a white mom thing. In the inner city, it is mostly aimed at influenza vaccine.

[akiddoc]

I got a pretty sobering wake up call when I told some family members the sad news that only 1/2 of the people surveyed said they would take the hypothetical vaccine.  Several of them said they probably wouldn't, at least not right away, and thought most Black folks wouldn't either.

There remains deep suspicion and aggrieved resentment towards government and medical institutions.

I work in a clinic which serves a population that is 80% poor racial minorities. If the vaccine is NOT influenza, we almost never get vaccine refusal. I also work at an institution that is 80% racial minorities in a very affluent area. Vaccine refusal is very rare there. Vaccine refusal in my experience is mostly a white mom thing. In the inner city, it is mostly aimed at influenza vaccine.