Covid-willing the Stanford men have their more-or-less annual swing through Los Angeles this weekend. Stanford, #98 NET, first takes on USC, #22 NET and #15 in both major polls, on Thursday. Stanford had an impressive return-from-Covid-break win over the Trojans at Maples on January 11, but since then the Cardinal had an impressive comeback at WSU, lost at #143 UW, was crushed at home by Arizona and almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory versus #154 ASU. I've said before that resiliency is a characteristic of this team, but I'm not sure it will matter this weekend, as past and current results make it clear that both USC and UCLA are far more talented and better coached than Stanford.
Since USC lost to Stanford they have gone 4-1 with wins vs Oregon State, @ Colorado, @ Utah and vs ASU. The lone loss was vs Oregon. The Trojans are 17-2 (7-2), currently in third place a game behind both UCLA and UA. Stanford is 11-6 (4-3), which is good enough for a tie for fifth with Washington. USC is 8-1 at home while Stanford is 1-4 in non-neutral road games. One could argue that USC hasn't faced the most challenging schedule to this point of the season. The Trojans have only played 2 Quad 1 games, winning both, and are 4-2 against Quad 2 opponents. Stanford is 3-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 2-2 against Quad 2. The Trojans and Bruins are Quad 1 opponents (duh) for Stanford, while Stanford, as of now, is a Quad 2 opponent for the home teams.
The overwhelmingly most likely outcome for this weekend is, as one would imagine, 0-2. ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives Stanford a 12.2% chance of winning @ USC and a 6.2% chance Saturday @ UCLA.
There are plenty of player storylines, but I am most interested in Harrison Ingram's performance against the big, bad, bullies of Los Angeles. HI posted 21 pts, 10 rbs versus USC on January 11, and then did this:
@ WSU: 4 pts (1-6 FG), 4 rbs
@ UW: 7 pts (2-6 FG), 7 rbs
vs UA: 5 pts (2-7 FG), 7 rbs
vs ASU: 13 pts (3-7 FG), 10 rbs, but 5-10 FT including missing 2 free throws during a critical stretch near the end of the game.
IMO, Stanford will need HI at his double-double best to have a chance against USC.
Since USC lost to Stanford they have gone 4-1 with wins vs Oregon State, @ Colorado, @ Utah and vs ASU. The lone loss was vs Oregon. The Trojans are 17-2 (7-2), currently in third place a game behind both UCLA and UA. Stanford is 11-6 (4-3), which is good enough for a tie for fifth with Washington. USC is 8-1 at home while Stanford is 1-4 in non-neutral road games. One could argue that USC hasn't faced the most challenging schedule to this point of the season. The Trojans have only played 2 Quad 1 games, winning both, and are 4-2 against Quad 2 opponents. Stanford is 3-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 2-2 against Quad 2. The Trojans and Bruins are Quad 1 opponents (duh) for Stanford, while Stanford, as of now, is a Quad 2 opponent for the home teams.
The overwhelmingly most likely outcome for this weekend is, as one would imagine, 0-2. ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives Stanford a 12.2% chance of winning @ USC and a 6.2% chance Saturday @ UCLA.
There are plenty of player storylines, but I am most interested in Harrison Ingram's performance against the big, bad, bullies of Los Angeles. HI posted 21 pts, 10 rbs versus USC on January 11, and then did this:
@ WSU: 4 pts (1-6 FG), 4 rbs
@ UW: 7 pts (2-6 FG), 7 rbs
vs UA: 5 pts (2-7 FG), 7 rbs
vs ASU: 13 pts (3-7 FG), 10 rbs, but 5-10 FT including missing 2 free throws during a critical stretch near the end of the game.
IMO, Stanford will need HI at his double-double best to have a chance against USC.
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)
