[Cardinal96]

Opening lines are out.  We are 1.5 point favorites on the road.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

Maynard is outplaying Nunes this year and they have more offensive skill talent than we do.  Hopefully, our advantage at the lines of scrimmage will be enough to compensate. 

I have a hunch that Cal is going to beat us given our road track record.  That is good news as my hunches have been wrong most of the season.  I thought USC would beat us by more than the spread and I thought we would beat UW by more than the spread.  Here's hoping we can put together a complete performance on the road and make it 3 in a row for Big Game.

[Cardinal96]

Opening lines are out.  We are 1.5 point favorites on the road.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

Maynard is outplaying Nunes this year and they have more offensive skill talent than we do.  Hopefully, our advantage at the lines of scrimmage will be enough to compensate. 

I have a hunch that Cal is going to beat us given our road track record.  That is good news as my hunches have been wrong most of the season.  I thought USC would beat us by more than the spread and I thought we would beat UW by more than the spread.  Here's hoping we can put together a complete performance on the road and make it 3 in a row for Big Game.

[BigEasyCard]

FWIW, spread now up to 2.5 or 3.

[BigEasyCard]

FWIW, spread now up to 2.5 or 3.

[71Bear]

Something like 21-13 or 24-13...

[71Bear]

Something like 21-13 or 24-13...

[dabigv13]

I think the "road game struggles" angle is a bit overplayed. In both of those games our defense still played well, and our offense has only played well against terrible defenses, namely Duke and Arizona, the two worst defenses we've played this year. I suspect that if we had played at Duke or at Arizona, we still would've had our two best offensive outputs of the season in those games.

ND is one of the best defenses in college football this year (though I'd still take ours over their's), and UW held USC's offense to 17 points and shut them out in the second half, in spite of their offense giving USC the ball 4 times. If you take away their game at LSU and at Oregon, their defense has played very well.

So let's throw out that factor.

kal has a respectable defense- they've held all the teams they've played below their season average- -10 for Nevada, -13 for ASU, -5 for USC, -14 for UCLA, - 4 for WSU. I'd say they're probably a hair below UW's defense.

Their offense is average, but with a reasonable delta, due to the Maynard factor. They put up 28 at Ohio State, 3 more than average, though OSU's defense has surrendered 49 to Indiana and 38 to Nebraska. They also put up 43 on UCLA, 21 more than UCLA normally allows. However they only put up 9 against USC, a game in which Maynard threw 2 picks and no TDs, and 17 against ASU, when Maynard went 9/28. ASU and USC are very good defenses however, both ranked above Stanford in terms of points against. Overall a bit better than UW's offense for example.

A 1.5-3 point spread is probably pretty reasonable. Sagarin ratings would have us up by 4. If we lose though, it won't be because we're playing on the road. It'll be be because we're playing a team with enough of an offense to manage a few scores and defense that isn't terrible.

[dabigv13]

I think the "road game struggles" angle is a bit overplayed. In both of those games our defense still played well, and our offense has only played well against terrible defenses, namely Duke and Arizona, the two worst defenses we've played this year. I suspect that if we had played at Duke or at Arizona, we still would've had our two best offensive outputs of the season in those games.

ND is one of the best defenses in college football this year (though I'd still take ours over their's), and UW held USC's offense to 17 points and shut them out in the second half, in spite of their offense giving USC the ball 4 times. If you take away their game at LSU and at Oregon, their defense has played very well.

So let's throw out that factor.

kal has a respectable defense- they've held all the teams they've played below their season average- -10 for Nevada, -13 for ASU, -5 for USC, -14 for UCLA, - 4 for WSU. I'd say they're probably a hair below UW's defense.

Their offense is average, but with a reasonable delta, due to the Maynard factor. They put up 28 at Ohio State, 3 more than average, though OSU's defense has surrendered 49 to Indiana and 38 to Nebraska. They also put up 43 on UCLA, 21 more than UCLA normally allows. However they only put up 9 against USC, a game in which Maynard threw 2 picks and no TDs, and 17 against ASU, when Maynard went 9/28. ASU and USC are very good defenses however, both ranked above Stanford in terms of points against. Overall a bit better than UW's offense for example.

A 1.5-3 point spread is probably pretty reasonable. Sagarin ratings would have us up by 4. If we lose though, it won't be because we're playing on the road. It'll be be because we're playing a team with enough of an offense to manage a few scores and defense that isn't terrible.

[Farm93]

Big Game is not a REAL road game.  IMO.  Less travel, some Stanford types in the house, etc.
Also Big Game is NOT sold out which is very curious given the mega millions spent to renovate the place and reduce capacity.

Oh well, I guess taxpayers will get new bills to pay for the UCB's expensive dreams.

If the Stanford O could generate a decent 2nd quarter run game or an ability to convert 3rd & 4-6 reliably Stanford would be a 6-10 point favorite.

Stanford should be OK with that UCB can offer, but I get the point spread.  I want to see Stanford win by double digits, but would be happy with any win at this point.

[Farm93]

Big Game is not a REAL road game.  IMO.  Less travel, some Stanford types in the house, etc.
Also Big Game is NOT sold out which is very curious given the mega millions spent to renovate the place and reduce capacity.

Oh well, I guess taxpayers will get new bills to pay for the UCB's expensive dreams.

If the Stanford O could generate a decent 2nd quarter run game or an ability to convert 3rd & 4-6 reliably Stanford would be a 6-10 point favorite.

Stanford should be OK with that UCB can offer, but I get the point spread.  I want to see Stanford win by double digits, but would be happy with any win at this point.

[estephan500]

I got the sense that the previous visitors' locker rooms at memorial stadium were so atrocious as to serve as an advantage for the home team. Don't got that this year.


I like coming in after a narrow loss to a very good team. Like swinging the bat in the on deck circle with the metal weights on it ... Walking onto the field you find 'em more manageable. Those that revere oskie are walking in having accustomed themselves to the idea that their effort against a crappy team is the right stuff.


But, one thing that I always give to kal -- they rise up, rabid, for this game. Our D must do everything possible to bury their spirit.


This has been your 99 cent store of analysis.


GIVE EM. THE AXE. THE AXE. THE AXE.

[estephan500]

I got the sense that the previous visitors' locker rooms at memorial stadium were so atrocious as to serve as an advantage for the home team. Don't got that this year.


I like coming in after a narrow loss to a very good team. Like swinging the bat in the on deck circle with the metal weights on it ... Walking onto the field you find 'em more manageable. Those that revere oskie are walking in having accustomed themselves to the idea that their effort against a crappy team is the right stuff.


But, one thing that I always give to kal -- they rise up, rabid, for this game. Our D must do everything possible to bury their spirit.


This has been your 99 cent store of analysis.


GIVE EM. THE AXE. THE AXE. THE AXE.