Posts: 4,633
Threads: 114
Joined: Dec 1969
Oh the challenge. ;D
Ted.f.o..rd is an above average D-1 coach. The UCB AD is unlikely to hire another above average D-1 coach given their hiring history. So Ted.f.or.d is probably comparable to what they could hope to get next time around. A new coach would give the program a fresh start, but it is unlikely that fresh start will produce a winner at Jeff's level.
Ted.f.or..d is overpaid. That was more true a few years ago. With the escalation in salaries in the last 4 years, Te.d.f.ord's pay almost looks reasonable. Additionally, if the UCB AD really wants to hire a proven winner willing to try their luck at UCB they will need to pay more, maybe $3 or $3.5 million a year. And even that might not be enough to keep this unnamed super coach around for more than 3 years. So they could be paying Jeff to do nothing, and have to pay big money for this super coach and his super staff too. And if the coach is all of that, then I suspect that super coach would leave in 2015.
Memorial Stadium credit card balance is in big trouble. Somehow along the way the UCB AD accepted pledges of future payments from their donors as equivalent to real money now. CRAZY! Still, with the stadium built on those pledges the UCB AD NEEDS the team to win to keep the future pledge money coming in.
If UCB finishes 3-9 (a real possibility), then Te.d.ford might be fired.
If UCB finishes 4-8, then that win will probably be over Utah, UW or OSU. No matter the program, the team in question will have a highly paid, well regarded coach that just lost to UCB. That "it could be worse" and "look at THOSE losers and their expensive coach" should be enough to justify giving him one more year.
If UCB finishes 5-7 or better, Ted.f..ord is safe.
My guess. UCB finishes 4-8. They use 2013 to resell Ted.f.ord and imply a resurgance is coming thanks to some new recruit or coordinator or whatever. They reference wins over UCLA and this to be determined Pac-12 opponent to show that other expensive coaches in the conference are actually bigger losers than Jeff. The blues will be loyal enough with their pledges to buy seats for at least one more year with that promise and comparison.
In 2013, if the team is 4-8 or worse, Te.d.fo.rd goes because then the UCB AD will need to hit the reset button to keep the pledge money coming in.