[Gauss]

Finally!
After a series of fairly outlandish predictions, garvin's boundless optimism finally paid off and wins this week!
His 35-17 prediction was the closest to yesterday's delicious whipping of the Sun Devils. Congratulations garvin!

In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

Now, onto Pasadena.
Yipee!

[Gauss]

Finally!
After a series of fairly outlandish predictions, garvin's boundless optimism finally paid off and wins this week!
His 35-17 prediction was the closest to yesterday's delicious whipping of the Sun Devils. Congratulations garvin!

In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

Now, onto Pasadena.
Yipee!

[Gauss]

Stanford Vs Arizona St:  38-14

Rank	Poster	Points		Score	Total error
1.	garvin	38		35-17	6
2.	CowboyIndian	37		34-17	7
3.	Extra Point	36		41-7	10
4.	dabigv	35		31-17	10
5.	CompSci87	33		27-14	11
5.	PrinceLightfoot	33		34-21	11
7.	Treebound	32		35-23	12
8.	Publius	31		28-17	13
9.	Griffin78	30		31-20	13
10.	Hank 91	29		27-17	14
---	--------------	----		-----	------
11.	Oasis	28		24-14	14
12.	Leftcoast	27		27-17	14
13.	NYCCardinalFan	26		31-21	14
14.	Red State	25		24-13	15
15.	martyup	24		50-10	16
16.	Card Fan in OR	23		28-20	16
17.	pcgoode	22		28-21	17
18.	Gauss	21		28-21	17
19.	SUBuddha	20		31-24	17
20.	pefloresjr	19		27-20	17
---	--------------	----		-----	------
21.	OutsiderFan	18		37-30	17
22.	Renaissance Man	14		31-24	17
22.	socalstanfan1	14		27-20	17
22.	Farm93	14		31-24	17
22.	Kathy	14		28-21	17
26.	JeffInCorvallis	12		24-20	20
26.	82lsju	12		21-17	20
28.	Kevin Gemmell	11		31-28	21
29.	fullmetal	10		20-17	21
30.	FarmBoy	9		20-17	21
---	--------------	----		-----	------
31.	81alum	8		31-28	21
32.	CrazedZooChimp	5		24-21	21
32.	shinsengumi	5		24-21	21
32.	oman	5		31-28	21
35.	Mick	3		33-31	22
35.	2 for 2028	3		26-24	22
37.	Big Brother	2		24-23	23
38.	Ted Miller	-4		24-28	28

[Gauss]

Stanford Vs Arizona St:  38-14

Rank	Poster	Points		Score	Total error
1.	garvin	38		35-17	6
2.	CowboyIndian	37		34-17	7
3.	Extra Point	36		41-7	10
4.	dabigv	35		31-17	10
5.	CompSci87	33		27-14	11
5.	PrinceLightfoot	33		34-21	11
7.	Treebound	32		35-23	12
8.	Publius	31		28-17	13
9.	Griffin78	30		31-20	13
10.	Hank 91	29		27-17	14
---	--------------	----		-----	------
11.	Oasis	28		24-14	14
12.	Leftcoast	27		27-17	14
13.	NYCCardinalFan	26		31-21	14
14.	Red State	25		24-13	15
15.	martyup	24		50-10	16
16.	Card Fan in OR	23		28-20	16
17.	pcgoode	22		28-21	17
18.	Gauss	21		28-21	17
19.	SUBuddha	20		31-24	17
20.	pefloresjr	19		27-20	17
---	--------------	----		-----	------
21.	OutsiderFan	18		37-30	17
22.	Renaissance Man	14		31-24	17
22.	socalstanfan1	14		27-20	17
22.	Farm93	14		31-24	17
22.	Kathy	14		28-21	17
26.	JeffInCorvallis	12		24-20	20
26.	82lsju	12		21-17	20
28.	Kevin Gemmell	11		31-28	21
29.	fullmetal	10		20-17	21
30.	FarmBoy	9		20-17	21
---	--------------	----		-----	------
31.	81alum	8		31-28	21
32.	CrazedZooChimp	5		24-21	21
32.	shinsengumi	5		24-21	21
32.	oman	5		31-28	21
35.	Mick	3		33-31	22
35.	2 for 2028	3		26-24	22
37.	Big Brother	2		24-23	23
38.	Ted Miller	-4		24-28	28

[Gauss]

Rank	Poster	Points	Av. error	Av. bias	Av. off. bias	Predictions
1.	Leftcoast	346	15.8	-1.5	-5.2	13
2.	Extra Point	334	16.5	+2.8	+0.7	13
3.	Griffin78	296	17.5	+3.1	+2.5	13
4.	Publius	284	17.9	-2.1	-4.1	13
5.	Kevin Gemmell	280	16.3	-5.5	-2.1	13
6.	SUBuddha	277	17.2	-0.5	+1.6	12
7.	Hank 91	276	18.0	+5.2	+1.8	13
8.	PrinceLightfoot	275	20.0	+7.0	+3.1	12
9.	CompSci87	271	18.5	+4.5	+0.8	13
10.	JeffInCorvallis	269	17.1	-4.9	-3.7	13
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
11.	pefloresjr	268	19.1	-0.8	+1.7	12
12.	Renaissance Man	266	15.9	-0.5	+1.6	11
13.	CrazedZooChimp	263	18.8	+2.2	-1.7	13
14.	FarmBoy	261	19.2	-0.1	+0.7	13
15.	Ted Miller	259	17.4	-6.8	-3.6	13
16.	garvin	255	17.6	+0.1	-0.6	13
17.	socalstanfan1	254	17.2	-2.6	-4.1	11
18.	Farm93	245	18.7	+1.6	+0.1	13
19.	pcgoode	242	18.3	+2.1	+2.5	11
20.	81alum	239	20.2	-3.4	-0.8	13
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
21.	OutsiderFan	236	18.3	+2.5	+2.3	13
22.	washingtonismoney	231	16.4	+4.8	+1.3	10
23.	Gauss	222	21.4	-2.8	-3.7	13
24.	Card Fan in OR	210	19.3	+4.2	+2.9	13
25.	Mick	202	17.8	-2.4	+0.2	13
26.	CochinoJanks	193	19.7	+2.1	+6.3	10
27.	2 for 2028	180	20.8	+3.0	+1.3	13
28.	Treebound	178	21.4	+2.6	+1.7	11
29.	Kathy	170	20.7	+2.5	+2.3	13
30.	shinsengumi	163	19.1	-2.9	+1.5	8
===	===============	====	=========	=========	=========	=========
	Board averages		18.4	+2.0	+0.4	8.1

[Gauss]

Rank	Poster	Points	Av. error	Av. bias	Av. off. bias	Predictions
1.	Leftcoast	346	15.8	-1.5	-5.2	13
2.	Extra Point	334	16.5	+2.8	+0.7	13
3.	Griffin78	296	17.5	+3.1	+2.5	13
4.	Publius	284	17.9	-2.1	-4.1	13
5.	Kevin Gemmell	280	16.3	-5.5	-2.1	13
6.	SUBuddha	277	17.2	-0.5	+1.6	12
7.	Hank 91	276	18.0	+5.2	+1.8	13
8.	PrinceLightfoot	275	20.0	+7.0	+3.1	12
9.	CompSci87	271	18.5	+4.5	+0.8	13
10.	JeffInCorvallis	269	17.1	-4.9	-3.7	13
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
11.	pefloresjr	268	19.1	-0.8	+1.7	12
12.	Renaissance Man	266	15.9	-0.5	+1.6	11
13.	CrazedZooChimp	263	18.8	+2.2	-1.7	13
14.	FarmBoy	261	19.2	-0.1	+0.7	13
15.	Ted Miller	259	17.4	-6.8	-3.6	13
16.	garvin	255	17.6	+0.1	-0.6	13
17.	socalstanfan1	254	17.2	-2.6	-4.1	11
18.	Farm93	245	18.7	+1.6	+0.1	13
19.	pcgoode	242	18.3	+2.1	+2.5	11
20.	81alum	239	20.2	-3.4	-0.8	13
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
21.	OutsiderFan	236	18.3	+2.5	+2.3	13
22.	washingtonismoney	231	16.4	+4.8	+1.3	10
23.	Gauss	222	21.4	-2.8	-3.7	13
24.	Card Fan in OR	210	19.3	+4.2	+2.9	13
25.	Mick	202	17.8	-2.4	+0.2	13
26.	CochinoJanks	193	19.7	+2.1	+6.3	10
27.	2 for 2028	180	20.8	+3.0	+1.3	13
28.	Treebound	178	21.4	+2.6	+1.7	11
29.	Kathy	170	20.7	+2.5	+2.3	13
30.	shinsengumi	163	19.1	-2.9	+1.5	8
===	===============	====	=========	=========	=========	=========
	Board averages		18.4	+2.0	+0.4	8.1

[Gauss]

Rank	Poster	Points	Av. error	Av. bias	Av. off. bias	Predictions
31.	82lsju	159	18.0	-1.2	-2.9	8
32.	GoodGrief	157	24.2	+6.4	+4.7	9
33.	NYCCardinalFan	156	21.4	-0.6	+0.6	10
34.	dabigv	144	19.4	+8.3	+3.0	7
35.	martyup	142	24.5	+8.0	+6.4	12
36.	Big Brother	136	22.4	-4.8	-6.7	10
37.	fullmetal	127	20.8	+4.6	-1.2	11
38.	Trevmiesterj	122	19.6	+3.4	+1.2	8
39.	needle	108	24.2	+1.6	+0.7	9
40.	jeboody	107	18.8	0.0	-6.0	5
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
41.	godfire	103	18.3	+3.7	-1.5	6
42.	Red State	96	15.0	-3.0	-2.7	3
43.	stupac2	95	20.7	+8.7	-1.8	6
44.	CowboyIndian	93	12.3	+2.8	+0.3	4
45.	Fuzzy Dunlop	92	17.3	+4.0	-4.7	3
46.	Oasis	88	15.8	+2.2	+4.0	4
47.	Hulk01	86	2.5	-1.5	+0.5	2
48.	oman	85	23.2	+6.1	+7.1	9
49.	97fan	82	22.5	-2.5	-7.8	4
50.	Rando90	58	27.0	+10.3	-1.3	3
51.	AthleticsDynasty	56	13.3	+13.3	+7.3	3
52.	norcalcard	43	6.0	+6.0	+2.0	1
53.	jacketree	37	10.0	+10.0	+4.0	1
54.	71Bear	37	11.0	-11.0	-11.0	1
55.	TChickens	37	17.5	+10.5	+7.0	2
56.	Roberton3	33	16.0	+16.0	+3.0	1
57.	optimistic	24	5.0	+3.0	+4.0	1
58.	DucksAreRoostingInTheTree	22	22.5	-4.5	+9.0	2
59.	donkey687	17	24.0	+4.0	+14.0	1
60.	stanfan	15	21.0	+21.0	+4.0	1
61.	Treefence	9	24.0	+24.0	+14.0	1
62.	CJ90	7	16.0	+16.0	+6.0	1
63.	JPRI	5	33.0	-33.0	-29.0	1
64.	Canard	2	20.0	-20.0	-6.0	1
===	===============	====	=========	=========	=========	=========
	Board averages		18.4	+2.0	+0.4	8.1

[Gauss]

Rank	Poster	Points	Av. error	Av. bias	Av. off. bias	Predictions
31.	82lsju	159	18.0	-1.2	-2.9	8
32.	GoodGrief	157	24.2	+6.4	+4.7	9
33.	NYCCardinalFan	156	21.4	-0.6	+0.6	10
34.	dabigv	144	19.4	+8.3	+3.0	7
35.	martyup	142	24.5	+8.0	+6.4	12
36.	Big Brother	136	22.4	-4.8	-6.7	10
37.	fullmetal	127	20.8	+4.6	-1.2	11
38.	Trevmiesterj	122	19.6	+3.4	+1.2	8
39.	needle	108	24.2	+1.6	+0.7	9
40.	jeboody	107	18.8	0.0	-6.0	5
---	---------------	----	---------	---------	---------	---------
41.	godfire	103	18.3	+3.7	-1.5	6
42.	Red State	96	15.0	-3.0	-2.7	3
43.	stupac2	95	20.7	+8.7	-1.8	6
44.	CowboyIndian	93	12.3	+2.8	+0.3	4
45.	Fuzzy Dunlop	92	17.3	+4.0	-4.7	3
46.	Oasis	88	15.8	+2.2	+4.0	4
47.	Hulk01	86	2.5	-1.5	+0.5	2
48.	oman	85	23.2	+6.1	+7.1	9
49.	97fan	82	22.5	-2.5	-7.8	4
50.	Rando90	58	27.0	+10.3	-1.3	3
51.	AthleticsDynasty	56	13.3	+13.3	+7.3	3
52.	norcalcard	43	6.0	+6.0	+2.0	1
53.	jacketree	37	10.0	+10.0	+4.0	1
54.	71Bear	37	11.0	-11.0	-11.0	1
55.	TChickens	37	17.5	+10.5	+7.0	2
56.	Roberton3	33	16.0	+16.0	+3.0	1
57.	optimistic	24	5.0	+3.0	+4.0	1
58.	DucksAreRoostingInTheTree	22	22.5	-4.5	+9.0	2
59.	donkey687	17	24.0	+4.0	+14.0	1
60.	stanfan	15	21.0	+21.0	+4.0	1
61.	Treefence	9	24.0	+24.0	+14.0	1
62.	CJ90	7	16.0	+16.0	+6.0	1
63.	JPRI	5	33.0	-33.0	-29.0	1
64.	Canard	2	20.0	-20.0	-6.0	1
===	===============	====	=========	=========	=========	=========
	Board averages		18.4	+2.0	+0.4	8.1

[Extra Point]

In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

The only fair way to handle this is to have the leader make the final game prediction first.

[Extra Point]

In the overall standings, Extra Point got the 3rd closest prediction, and cut Leftcoast's lead from 21 to only 12 points!
The Rose bowl will be the last game, so Extra Point still has a chance to win all the marbles (given that Leftcoast could wait for Extra Point to post his/her prediction, and then predict the same to win, I'd accept Extra Point's predictions in a PM).

The only fair way to handle this is to have the leader make the final game prediction first.

[washingtonismoney]

I'm well behind, so this doesn't matter -- but I think the fairest way would be for the leaders to PM their prediction to Gauss.

[washingtonismoney]

I'm well behind, so this doesn't matter -- but I think the fairest way would be for the leaders to PM their prediction to Gauss.

[stupac2]

Clearly the only fair way to handle it is a duel outside of the Rose Bowl.

[stupac2]

Clearly the only fair way to handle it is a duel outside of the Rose Bowl.

[CompSci87]

Slide rules at 30 paces!

[CompSci87]

Slide rules at 30 paces!

[Leftcoast]

Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

[Leftcoast]

Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

[Leftcoast]

Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

[Leftcoast]

Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

[Extra Point]

Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

Given what is known now, that is a realistic prediction. But, a lot can happen between now and New Years. My sense of fair play says you should make your prediction a day or two before the game.

[Extra Point]

Just catching up on this one. 

How 'bout if I make my prediction now?  Stanford 24, Green Sparty Boys 17.

A low scoring first half gives way to a looser second half where Stanford puts up two TDs and A FG, sending the fans in red home happy!

Book it!

Given what is known now, that is a realistic prediction. But, a lot can happen between now and New Years. My sense of fair play says you should make your prediction a day or two before the game.

[Bruce Wang]

Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

I'd take you on with my 12c except the only calculations I could beat you in a duel with would be formulas related to the time value of money.

[Bruce Wang]

Although a slide rule duel sound very "Nerd Nation".  I could go for that even if my throwback weapon of choice would be an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

I'd take you on with my 12c except the only calculations I could beat you in a duel with would be formulas related to the time value of money.

[Leftcoast]

Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings. 

Game Theory could probably let either of us maximize our chances based upon the likely distribution of other Cardboard picks vs the likely spread of game scores.  My guess is that might lead to choosing Michigan St .... And then you've truly joined the dark side.  I've already done that once with the Oregon game and, baby, it was cold outside.  This is my best guess at how these two stingy defenses will do when facing offenses that have had a month to prepare.

Barring Willy Howard blowing out the ligaments in his right knee or Troy Walters playing the Rose Bowl with his hand in a cast  (and THAT could never happen, right?) I'll stick with my score.

[Leftcoast]

Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings. 

Game Theory could probably let either of us maximize our chances based upon the likely distribution of other Cardboard picks vs the likely spread of game scores.  My guess is that might lead to choosing Michigan St .... And then you've truly joined the dark side.  I've already done that once with the Oregon game and, baby, it was cold outside.  This is my best guess at how these two stingy defenses will do when facing offenses that have had a month to prepare.

Barring Willy Howard blowing out the ligaments in his right knee or Troy Walters playing the Rose Bowl with his hand in a cast  (and THAT could never happen, right?) I'll stick with my score.

[Leftcoast]

The 12c would be a good choice, Publius .  I swapped my 15 with a classmate for her 12 when taking a Stanford class on portfolio management and it was a godsend.

Vintage HP calcs at 3.14159 paces it is then!

(For a laugh give your kids a RPN calculator and watch their heads spin.  Trust me they look at us the way we looked at our parents when they explained their beloved slip-sticks.)

[Leftcoast]

The 12c would be a good choice, Publius .  I swapped my 15 with a classmate for her 12 when taking a Stanford class on portfolio management and it was a godsend.

Vintage HP calcs at 3.14159 paces it is then!

(For a laugh give your kids a RPN calculator and watch their heads spin.  Trust me they look at us the way we looked at our parents when they explained their beloved slip-sticks.)

[Leftcoast]

Hopefully you would also let them off the hook if they knew WHY it was known as Polish notation?  Polish notation was invented by Polish logician Jan Kukasiewicz.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_Polish_notation

(Oh, our Michigan St. visitors must be getting a kick out of this topic's hard veer toward geekdom!)

[Leftcoast]

Hopefully you would also let them off the hook if they knew WHY it was known as Polish notation?  Polish notation was invented by Polish logician Jan Kukasiewicz.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_Polish_notation

(Oh, our Michigan St. visitors must be getting a kick out of this topic's hard veer toward geekdom!)

[Extra Point]

Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings.

OK Leftcoast, you're on!

Nothing in the world could force me to pick Michigan State. Thus, for me to win it will be necessary for Stanford to score more points than you predict and/or Michigan State to score less. Hopefully this approach coincides with my prediction methods.

I became more motivated to win this contest in mid season because my daughter and son-in-law, knowing exactly how I feel about such matters, thought it would be really cute to dress my grandson on a special occasion as shown below.

I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.


[attachment deleted by admin]

[Extra Point]

Nah ..... I'll stand by my prediction and give Extra Point whatever advantage picking second brings.

OK Leftcoast, you're on!

Nothing in the world could force me to pick Michigan State. Thus, for me to win it will be necessary for Stanford to score more points than you predict and/or Michigan State to score less. Hopefully this approach coincides with my prediction methods.

I became more motivated to win this contest in mid season because my daughter and son-in-law, knowing exactly how I feel about such matters, thought it would be really cute to dress my grandson on a special occasion as shown below.

I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.


[attachment deleted by admin]

[CowboyIndian]

... an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

Aren't these made by Shinola? Shows how much I know.

[CowboyIndian]

... an HP 15c "reverse polish " RPN calculator.

Aren't these made by Shinola? Shows how much I know.

[Bruce Wang]

I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.

[Bruce Wang]

I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.

[Extra Point]

[quote author=Extra Point link=topic=9028.msg77513#msg77513 date=1386634174]
I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.
[/quote]

It doesn't need it to be cuter, just more appropriate. If I am fortunate enough to win this item, then it will become a family heirloom. If I purchase something, it will be discarded with no regrets at some point. So, please Mr. Hogan -- bombs away for baby Benjamin!

[Extra Point]

[quote author=Extra Point link=topic=9028.msg77513#msg77513 date=1386634174]
I think it would be really cool for Benjamin to receive something much more appropriate on his first birthday that his grandpa won.

Extra Point, that is a super cute picture.  I checked. Sadly Stanford does not sell an equally cute hat in the shape of the Tree.
[/quote]

It doesn't need it to be cuter, just more appropriate. If I am fortunate enough to win this item, then it will become a family heirloom. If I purchase something, it will be discarded with no regrets at some point. So, please Mr. Hogan -- bombs away for baby Benjamin!