12-31-2013, 06:24 PM
Stanford 20
Michigan State 13
I base this on conjecture hatched from analysis of the common opponent, N.otre Dame, plus my feeling that long layoffs tend to help defenses more than offenses as they tweak what they normally do to stop the opposition's bread and butter plays.
Our offense scored 14 more points against N.otre Dame than the MSU offense did. Our defense allowed 3 more points to N.otre Dame than the MSU defense did. This would normally suggest an 11 point differential. However, that differential was achieved against a significantly worse defense than either Stanford's or MSU's, so the differential needs to be scaled back to allow for a lower scoring game. 7 points seems about right, and there will probably be more field goals than touchdowns with a top score about a touchdown below our 27 points against N.otre Dame. Therefore, 20-13
My top concerns:
When we are on offense, MSU, I think, has the personnel and has had the time to create a scheme that will stuff Gaffney up the middle and blanket Montgomery. Hogan will need to complete passes--especially on third down--to possession receivers. This has been a problem all year and MSU obviously knows that. If Hogan gets desperate and tries to force passes into coverage we are going to lose. But if we have installed some new wrinkles--better passing to TEs and running backs and third WRs, then we can exploit their otherwise highly successful defensive scheme.
When we are on defense, MSU is famous for trick plays to keep the defense honest enough to enable its running game. Our secondary in particular must be extremely disciplined. If we survive a couple trick plays without much damage then we should be able to focus on shutting down their running game. They will have a wrinkle or two to try out that won't be on any tape. Otherwise I have confidence we will be well prepared.
Michigan State 13
I base this on conjecture hatched from analysis of the common opponent, N.otre Dame, plus my feeling that long layoffs tend to help defenses more than offenses as they tweak what they normally do to stop the opposition's bread and butter plays.
Our offense scored 14 more points against N.otre Dame than the MSU offense did. Our defense allowed 3 more points to N.otre Dame than the MSU defense did. This would normally suggest an 11 point differential. However, that differential was achieved against a significantly worse defense than either Stanford's or MSU's, so the differential needs to be scaled back to allow for a lower scoring game. 7 points seems about right, and there will probably be more field goals than touchdowns with a top score about a touchdown below our 27 points against N.otre Dame. Therefore, 20-13
My top concerns:
When we are on offense, MSU, I think, has the personnel and has had the time to create a scheme that will stuff Gaffney up the middle and blanket Montgomery. Hogan will need to complete passes--especially on third down--to possession receivers. This has been a problem all year and MSU obviously knows that. If Hogan gets desperate and tries to force passes into coverage we are going to lose. But if we have installed some new wrinkles--better passing to TEs and running backs and third WRs, then we can exploit their otherwise highly successful defensive scheme.
When we are on defense, MSU is famous for trick plays to keep the defense honest enough to enable its running game. Our secondary in particular must be extremely disciplined. If we survive a couple trick plays without much damage then we should be able to focus on shutting down their running game. They will have a wrinkle or two to try out that won't be on any tape. Otherwise I have confidence we will be well prepared.
![[Image: QYv9MUd.png]](http://i.imgur.com/QYv9MUd.png)