(06-28-2015, 09:38 PM)81alum link Wrote:... the SAT score has no statistically significant correlation with any kind of college success: graduation rates, college GPAs, retention rates, etc.
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But even high school GPA is eclipsed by the greatest predictor of college success: Social Economic Status (SES) of parents. It has a high correlation with SAT scores.Â
There are a TON of studies comparing SAT scores to just about everything under the sun; it's rather a cottage industry - or perhaps something bigger than a cottage. While there is no lack of data, there is a lack of consensus about just what the SAT ought to be measuring. And as far as I can tell, among people writing opinion pieces a lack of reading peer-reviewed literature.
I am not sure where the balance of the evidence points, but there are many well known, statistically large studies, that find strong correlations between success on the SAT and first year GPA, four-year GPA, future salary, ... - I believe with a general trend of the correlation getting somewhat weaker as the timeline grows.
Here are two such studies I have had occasion to look at lately:
From the University of Minnesota, published in Psychological Science:
http://pss.sagepub.com/content/23/9/1000.abstract
The SAT has a stronger record of predicting "subsequent academic success" than do HS grades, predicts first-year college GPA at about the same rate as HS GPAs (though both together is better), and is only weakly affected by SES.
From Michigan State, published in the Journal of Applied Psychology :
http://iopsych.msu.edu/cbstudy/JAP_2007_...t_etal.pdf (and references noted at the start of that paper).
Total college GPA is strongly correlated to SAT/ACT scores.
While it is important to remember that the SAT (and any single test) is far from perfect, it's also useful to remember why it was created. It was created in order to 1) provide objective evidence that academic talent was not restricted to rich chilldren of Ivy league graduates, and 2) to address test biases based on socio-economic status. It is ironic that it is upon these goals in particular that it is now criticized. There are certainly problems with regards to these kinds of fairness issues, but there is a significant problem in finding anything better, particularly something that doesn't open a range of other problems.Â
Purely relying upon HS GPA, or better class rank, would tend to broaden the economic status of a student body as long as our high schools remain segregated along economic lines. To some extent that has been the Univ. of Texas answer to being banned from considering race in admissions. However, it is also pretty clear that nobody is comfortable merely taking all HS GPAs at face value, and one you adjust HS GPAs for curriculum and rigor this will go back to benefiting kids at well off schools versus those at poor public schools.
The Stanford/Ivy approach of having a completely subjective evaluation of applicants based upon the maximum available information strikes me as the best approach for Stanford, but it has some obvious problems that are aggravated when implemented more widely. The time and cost of such an evaluation process is prohibitive for large public schools. It also opens the door for any kind of bias present in the evaluators - conscious or unconscious. It is clear that state legislators are are unwilling to allow for the possibility of such bias, particularly if it might be wielded against whomever is applying the most political pressure on them.
The good news is that with a ton of universities in the USA, there is lots of experimentation with admissions policies. If some particular process becomes an obvious winner, it will be widely adopted.