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winflop, is your concern primarily about kids skipping the bowl game, before they've exhausted eligibility, or before they've spent four years here?
I've always viewed fifth years as a mutual option--we don't owe it to the student-athlete, and he doesn't owe it to us, but if both sides want a 5th year, great.
I don't have any reservations about kids leaving after four years, even if they have a year left. That's their academic obligation to the school, and it's ours to them.
I get queasy about kids leaving after three years, but to be honest, my feelings differ from kid to kid. With McCaffrey, it looked like he'd be a first-rounder, and there's value in striking while the iron's hot, so going there felt like the right call. With Austin Hooper, it seemed like more of a gamble, and while that was a thin year for TEs generally in the draft, I wasn't sure he made the right call in going. (He went in Round 3 and was the second TE off the board, and he's been great for Atlanta, so I think he made the right call in the end.) I thought Justin Reid leaving made sense, but I thought Meeks could have benefited from another year, and their respective draft slots and rookie performances have pretty much validated that. Andrus Peat made the right financial choice by leaving, but he hasn't lived up to his draft slot so far, so perhaps another year at Stanford would have made his career more successful, at least initially.
I've made my general point on skipping bowl games elsewhere here, so I won't repeat myself other than to say whether I care depends on the prestige of the bowl, whether you're still playing for a championship, your injury history, your likely draft slot, etc. With Christian, I got it. If you might go in the top half of the first round, it's not worth it. I didn't begrudge him that. (I was glad Solomon played that game, of course. But I wasn't mad at Christian.) With Bryce, I'm glad he's not playing, because he's already probably damaged his financial future somewhat by returning to get his degree, he's dinged up now, and I'd be sick to my stomach if he got injured again playing in a mid-tier (at best) bowl game.
I'll be candid that Herbig's departure doesn't sit as well with me, even though my general principle would be to not begrudge him this. Bryce is getting his degree in addition to being injured, so he's done his part, as far as I'm concerned. But even comparing Herbig to other departing juniors, his case seems to be an outlier. Christian was a damn star, and I felt like it was a fair trade to not have his services in the Sun Bowl in exchange for ensuring a healthy walking billboard for Stanford football, you know? His smile on draft night, and every touchdown Christian scores now, means a little residual value flowing back to the program. We knew Peat would go high. I thought Reid and Hooper would be 2nd round picks. (Not to mention that Peat, Reid, and Hooper all played in the bowl games their last years.) But I don't have that level of optimism for Herbig's draft status. So, the direct comparison is Christian. And, uh, Nate didn't do for this program what Christian did.
I guess, in the end, that skipping the bowl game is a privilege. It felt fair to me that Christian was afforded that privilege. It feels very right that Bryce is. It doesn't feel as right with Herbig.