[OutsiderFan]

Honestly, the Pac-12 shouldn't even be keeping standings this year. Keep scores for individual games, but the results are utterly and completely meaningless.

I find it hard to believe UW has to shut down now, what, 5 days after playing Stanford because of virus cases, and Stanford players wouldn't have been infected. Maybe it's players on UW who didn't see the field that are infected? If it was an OL or DL who played, or a LB who played, hard to imagine Stanford's OL and RBs wouldn't be getting virus transmitted to them. 

This means there is now a chance Stanford players could be ruled out against OSU.  The way this seems to work, as I understand it, UW will tell Stanford the UW player(s) infected who played in the game, so Stanford can then go look at the game video and see which Stanford players were on the field in close contact to that player. I don't know if from there said players would have to sit out, go through extra testing, or what the procedure is at that point.

[OutsiderFan]

Honestly, the Pac-12 shouldn't even be keeping standings this year. Keep scores for individual games, but the results are utterly and completely meaningless.

I find it hard to believe UW has to shut down now, what, 5 days after playing Stanford because of virus cases, and Stanford players wouldn't have been infected. Maybe it's players on UW who didn't see the field that are infected? If it was an OL or DL who played, or a LB who played, hard to imagine Stanford's OL and RBs wouldn't be getting virus transmitted to them. 

This means there is now a chance Stanford players could be ruled out against OSU.  The way this seems to work, as I understand it, UW will tell Stanford the UW player(s) infected who played in the game, so Stanford can then go look at the game video and see which Stanford players were on the field in close contact to that player. I don't know if from there said players would have to sit out, go through extra testing, or what the procedure is at that point.

[magnus]

Honestly, the Pac-12 shouldn't even be keeping standings this year. Keep scores for individual games, but the results are utterly and completely meaningless.

I find it hard to believe UW has to shut down now, what, 5 days after playing Stanford because of virus cases, and Stanford players wouldn't have been infected. Maybe it's players on UW who didn't see the field that are infected? If it was an OL or DL who played, or a LB who played, hard to imagine Stanford's OL and RBs wouldn't be getting virus transmitted to them. 

This means there is now a chance Stanford players could be ruled out against OSU.  The way this seems to work, as I understand it, UW will tell Stanford the UW player(s) infected who played in the game, so Stanford can then go look at the game video and see which Stanford players were on the field in close contact to that player. I don't know if from there said players would have to sit out, go through extra testing, or what the procedure is at that point.

Not that I know of every case, but thus far there hasn't been any reported cases of on field transmission.  That would bode well for keeping Stanford's players safe.  That said, I don't know what the Pac12's rules are with respect to back tracing and quarantining.

[magnus]

Honestly, the Pac-12 shouldn't even be keeping standings this year. Keep scores for individual games, but the results are utterly and completely meaningless.

I find it hard to believe UW has to shut down now, what, 5 days after playing Stanford because of virus cases, and Stanford players wouldn't have been infected. Maybe it's players on UW who didn't see the field that are infected? If it was an OL or DL who played, or a LB who played, hard to imagine Stanford's OL and RBs wouldn't be getting virus transmitted to them. 

This means there is now a chance Stanford players could be ruled out against OSU.  The way this seems to work, as I understand it, UW will tell Stanford the UW player(s) infected who played in the game, so Stanford can then go look at the game video and see which Stanford players were on the field in close contact to that player. I don't know if from there said players would have to sit out, go through extra testing, or what the procedure is at that point.

Not that I know of every case, but thus far there hasn't been any reported cases of on field transmission.  That would bode well for keeping Stanford's players safe.  That said, I don't know what the Pac12's rules are with respect to back tracing and quarantining.

[Farm93]

Not that I know of every case, but thus far there hasn't been any reported cases of on field transmission.  That would bode well for keeping Stanford's players safe.  That said, I don't know what the Pac12's rules are with respect to back tracing and quarantining.

In some other conferences the opponents often got told a lot more information so they review game film and then stay on be on high alert for COVID signs in those that were opposite those players in the game.    However, to date, it doesn't seem like in-game transmission is that common.  

However, let's remember that Stanford Football spent the week in Seattle.   So if some aspect of life in that part of Seattle was particularly problematic it would not be hard to imagine Stanford players getting COVID too.   It was not as if Stanford flew in that morning and flew out that evening.   They were in the Seattle area for a lot longer than just ~4 or 5 hours.

[Farm93]

Not that I know of every case, but thus far there hasn't been any reported cases of on field transmission.  That would bode well for keeping Stanford's players safe.  That said, I don't know what the Pac12's rules are with respect to back tracing and quarantining.

In some other conferences the opponents often got told a lot more information so they review game film and then stay on be on high alert for COVID signs in those that were opposite those players in the game.    However, to date, it doesn't seem like in-game transmission is that common.  

However, let's remember that Stanford Football spent the week in Seattle.   So if some aspect of life in that part of Seattle was particularly problematic it would not be hard to imagine Stanford players getting COVID too.   It was not as if Stanford flew in that morning and flew out that evening.   They were in the Seattle area for a lot longer than just ~4 or 5 hours.

[magnus]

Pitt and BC have declared that they will pass up the bowl season this year.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-bowl-game

I thought the reason would be to avoid going to a new place and risk getting infected, but the reason cited isn't exactly virus free.

the desire to have players be able to spend the holidays with family.

I guess once the season is over, they are going to be losing their strict protocols anyway?

[magnus]

Pitt and BC have declared that they will pass up the bowl season this year.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-bowl-game

I thought the reason would be to avoid going to a new place and risk getting infected, but the reason cited isn't exactly virus free.

the desire to have players be able to spend the holidays with family.

I guess once the season is over, they are going to be losing their strict protocols anyway?

[Farm93]

I found the Pitt release revealing.  The team decided to not go to a bowl and the University supported their decision.

Pitt has a winning record, and just came off a win.   So at least some players and/or coaches are not exactly loving playing with COVID related restrictions even if they are doing OK on the field.

Can't help but think UofA would opt out of the 12/19 Pac-12 games if they could.   Apparently they didn't want to be out there on Friday vs ASU.  

With a lot of bowls cancelled it probably will help sort things out if some more teams opt out.

[Farm93]

I found the Pitt release revealing.  The team decided to not go to a bowl and the University supported their decision.

Pitt has a winning record, and just came off a win.   So at least some players and/or coaches are not exactly loving playing with COVID related restrictions even if they are doing OK on the field.

Can't help but think UofA would opt out of the 12/19 Pac-12 games if they could.   Apparently they didn't want to be out there on Friday vs ASU.  

With a lot of bowls cancelled it probably will help sort things out if some more teams opt out.

[BostonCard]

The New York Times tried to collate the information on positive tests in athletics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/sport...74f24220a2

They found that among the schools that released the data, there were 6,629 cases.  This excludes schools that didn't release data.  As the Times acknowledges, it is hard to really place this information in context.  How many cases would have happened regardless of whether schools had sports on campus?  There doesn't appear to have been any large superspreader events.

That being said, I posted elsewhere about the challenge segregating university students from the broader population, and I suspect the same is the case with football players.  It is a challenge to separate them from the overall university population, not to mention the broader population.

BC

[BostonCard]

The New York Times tried to collate the information on positive tests in athletics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/sport...74f24220a2

They found that among the schools that released the data, there were 6,629 cases.  This excludes schools that didn't release data.  As the Times acknowledges, it is hard to really place this information in context.  How many cases would have happened regardless of whether schools had sports on campus?  There doesn't appear to have been any large superspreader events.

That being said, I posted elsewhere about the challenge segregating university students from the broader population, and I suspect the same is the case with football players.  It is a challenge to separate them from the overall university population, not to mention the broader population.

BC

[chrisk]

Stanford still is proceeding with plans to allow freshman and sophomores to live on campus winter quarter if they choose.

However, they will not be allowed on campus for the first 2 weeks of the quarter and then will be assigned move-in dates over 4 days, January 21-24. They will be tested twice on the first day and then twice a week thereafter.
They will be living in single rooms and there will be many limitations on activities, with no in-person activities during the first 2 weeks on campus.

https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/covid-...te-return/

It seems that regardless of Santa Clara County directives, which may change, these kind of restrictions may limit on-campus athletic activities.

[chrisk]

Stanford still is proceeding with plans to allow freshman and sophomores to live on campus winter quarter if they choose.

However, they will not be allowed on campus for the first 2 weeks of the quarter and then will be assigned move-in dates over 4 days, January 21-24. They will be tested twice on the first day and then twice a week thereafter.
They will be living in single rooms and there will be many limitations on activities, with no in-person activities during the first 2 weeks on campus.

https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/covid-...te-return/

It seems that regardless of Santa Clara County directives, which may change, these kind of restrictions may limit on-campus athletic activities.

[Farm93]

Stanford still is proceeding with plans to allow freshman and sophomores to live on campus winter quarter if they choose.

However,  they will not be allowed on campus for the first 2 weeks of the quarter and then will be assigned move-in dates over 4 days, January 21-24.  They will be tested twice on the first day and then twice a week thereafter.
They will be living in single rooms and there will be many limitations on activities, with no in-person activities during the first 2 weeks on campus.

https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/covid-...te-return/

It seems that regardless of Santa Clara County directives, which may change, these kind of restrictions may limit on-campus athletic activities.

With a HS senior applying to colleges I have seen quite a few Youtube 2020 college life VLOGs over the last several weeks.   
There is no way to sugar coat this.  Life on many college campuses looks like prison this academic year. 
I realize the students have freedom to leave and are not literally locked up, but on video it looks like prison.

Most dorm rooms on most campuses have brick or cinderblock walls.
The students generally have to take to-go dorm food back to their dorm room and eat in isolation.
There are very few social opportunities on campus - (no attendance at sports, no concerts, no meals with friends, no parties, etc.)
A small number of classes might be in person, but most classes are watched on computer screens in the dorm room.
Add in other restrictions and it is clear that they are spending 22-24 hours of life isolated in their 15' X 10' cinderblock dorm room.

Everything I associate with a positive freshman on campus experience is restricted or eliminated this year.   It looks awful.   

At most schools the dorm rooms were literally designed to get students out of their dorms and socialize and meet other people on campus.  They simply were not designed to be occupied 22-24 hours each day.   Stanford University is a lovely place, but I am not sure I would want to spend 22 hours each day in a Stern or Wilbur dorm room.

[Farm93]

Stanford still is proceeding with plans to allow freshman and sophomores to live on campus winter quarter if they choose.

However,  they will not be allowed on campus for the first 2 weeks of the quarter and then will be assigned move-in dates over 4 days, January 21-24.  They will be tested twice on the first day and then twice a week thereafter.
They will be living in single rooms and there will be many limitations on activities, with no in-person activities during the first 2 weeks on campus.

https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/covid-...te-return/

It seems that regardless of Santa Clara County directives, which may change, these kind of restrictions may limit on-campus athletic activities.

With a HS senior applying to colleges I have seen quite a few Youtube 2020 college life VLOGs over the last several weeks.   
There is no way to sugar coat this.  Life on many college campuses looks like prison this academic year. 
I realize the students have freedom to leave and are not literally locked up, but on video it looks like prison.

Most dorm rooms on most campuses have brick or cinderblock walls.
The students generally have to take to-go dorm food back to their dorm room and eat in isolation.
There are very few social opportunities on campus - (no attendance at sports, no concerts, no meals with friends, no parties, etc.)
A small number of classes might be in person, but most classes are watched on computer screens in the dorm room.
Add in other restrictions and it is clear that they are spending 22-24 hours of life isolated in their 15' X 10' cinderblock dorm room.

Everything I associate with a positive freshman on campus experience is restricted or eliminated this year.   It looks awful.   

At most schools the dorm rooms were literally designed to get students out of their dorms and socialize and meet other people on campus.  They simply were not designed to be occupied 22-24 hours each day.   Stanford University is a lovely place, but I am not sure I would want to spend 22 hours each day in a Stern or Wilbur dorm room.

[OutsiderFan]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

[OutsiderFan]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

[magnus]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

What are college football's numbers?

The F1 numbers likely look better than they actually are.  How many of these tests were done on the same persons?

if 100x, then that's just 780 persons getting 76 positives.

The NFL in comparison had about 43K tests from Nov 1st to Nov 7th to about 8k players and personnel.  56 positives.

[magnus]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

What are college football's numbers?

The F1 numbers likely look better than they actually are.  How many of these tests were done on the same persons?

if 100x, then that's just 780 persons getting 76 positives.

The NFL in comparison had about 43K tests from Nov 1st to Nov 7th to about 8k players and personnel.  56 positives.

[Farm93]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

What are college football's numbers?

The F1 numbers likely look better than they actually are.  How many of these tests were done on the same persons?

if 100x, then that's just 780 persons getting 76 positives.

The NFL in comparison had about 43K tests from Nov 1st to Nov 7th to about 8k players and personnel.  56 positives.

Formula 1 has thousands of people in its travelling caravan and entering the location bubbles.
The season spanned 23 weeks.  I believe most of those thousands were tested 2 or 3 times a week.
And this is an organization that has everyone jumping on planes to fly all over the world.

However, just for the record even if it was 76 out of 780 that would still be a lot better than your average D1 football team.   There are quite a number of teams that have had far more than 10% of their athletes test positive over the last 23 weeks.

I am not going to check, but I want to say it was probably 76 against a denominator of 2,000-3,000 or so though not all in the denominator went to every event.   For F1 the media was in their travelling bubble, so I believe they would also be in the 76 were media members.

The bigger success for F1 was that every car raced in every event, and every event was held as scheduled in the COVID compressed calendar.   
That obviously has not happened in college football or college basketball.

[Farm93]

Was watching the final Formula One race of the season yesterday and heard this:

F1 conducted 78,000 tests during its season that started in July. Of those, it had a total of 76 positive tests among all participants.

College football has done a TERRIBLE job by comparison.

Was just wondering what happens if there are virus outbreaks for the playoff teams and the NY6 bowls. Do they postpone the games or cancel them?

What are college football's numbers?

The F1 numbers likely look better than they actually are.  How many of these tests were done on the same persons?

if 100x, then that's just 780 persons getting 76 positives.

The NFL in comparison had about 43K tests from Nov 1st to Nov 7th to about 8k players and personnel.  56 positives.

Formula 1 has thousands of people in its travelling caravan and entering the location bubbles.
The season spanned 23 weeks.  I believe most of those thousands were tested 2 or 3 times a week.
And this is an organization that has everyone jumping on planes to fly all over the world.

However, just for the record even if it was 76 out of 780 that would still be a lot better than your average D1 football team.   There are quite a number of teams that have had far more than 10% of their athletes test positive over the last 23 weeks.

I am not going to check, but I want to say it was probably 76 against a denominator of 2,000-3,000 or so though not all in the denominator went to every event.   For F1 the media was in their travelling bubble, so I believe they would also be in the 76 were media members.

The bigger success for F1 was that every car raced in every event, and every event was held as scheduled in the COVID compressed calendar.   
That obviously has not happened in college football or college basketball.

[JustAnotherFan]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

[JustAnotherFan]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

[chrisk]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

On the men’s side, Chicago State called a halt to its season.

[chrisk]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

On the men’s side, Chicago State called a halt to its season.

[JustAnotherFan]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

On the men’s side, Chicago State called a halt to its season.

It is a shame because both Stanford's women's and men's team can have such a great year, but I think that the basketball season should be cancelled this year. Football is bad. Basketball is worse. This season is the worst. Or at least hold off until the spring.

[JustAnotherFan]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

On the men’s side, Chicago State called a halt to its season.

It is a shame because both Stanford's women's and men's team can have such a great year, but I think that the basketball season should be cancelled this year. Football is bad. Basketball is worse. This season is the worst. Or at least hold off until the spring.

[BostonCard]

They should postpone the season until the spring.  Things are likely to be much better by then.

BC

[BostonCard]

They should postpone the season until the spring.  Things are likely to be much better by then.

BC

[M T]

They should postpone the season until the spring.  Things are likely to be much better by then.

I see little basis for that optimistic dream.  For sure, college students won't be vaccinated.  The fans won't be vaccinated. 

The first 20M vaccines (originally claimed for December) won't be in the states' hands until mid January.  The CDC estimates 24M in group 1A.  I'm very certain their estimate for their current recommendation of 1B as being 49M will be under-estimated by 10 or 20M as more people are treated as if they are frontline essential workers (such as Dr. Fauci).   But even with the CDC's estimate of 69M people in 1A + 1B, OWS wasn't estimating that many vaccines available to ship until mid-February for first doses, mid-March for 2nd doses.   Optimistically, you might expect those to be administered in 2 weeks, putting them into arms of 75+ by early April.  

For many schools, end of classes will be early May. (Stanford's last day is in June)

The latest word (Dec. 24) was that OWS expect to allocate the rest of the claimed 20M on Dec. 30, for the states to ask for shipments a week later.  

If we're having trouble getting the first 9M doses into arms, what's going to happen in March when 100M shots (50M second & 50M first) may be given.   I don't think we'll be very efficient at that.  (For comparison, in 2019-2020 170M flu shots were given in the entire season.)

75+ represent 59% of the deaths and 6.7% of the cases.  If all cases & deaths of 75+ stop in late March, then we'll be at 1000 deaths/day in the US and 205K cases/day, based on current levels.  There will also be decrease due to vaccinating the 50M non-older people but it is unclear what that will be.  Reducing the remaining cases by 17% (~ 50/(330-30)), that will bring deaths down to 830 per day and cases down to 170K new cases per day.

[M T]

They should postpone the season until the spring.  Things are likely to be much better by then.

I see little basis for that optimistic dream.  For sure, college students won't be vaccinated.  The fans won't be vaccinated. 

The first 20M vaccines (originally claimed for December) won't be in the states' hands until mid January.  The CDC estimates 24M in group 1A.  I'm very certain their estimate for their current recommendation of 1B as being 49M will be under-estimated by 10 or 20M as more people are treated as if they are frontline essential workers (such as Dr. Fauci).   But even with the CDC's estimate of 69M people in 1A + 1B, OWS wasn't estimating that many vaccines available to ship until mid-February for first doses, mid-March for 2nd doses.   Optimistically, you might expect those to be administered in 2 weeks, putting them into arms of 75+ by early April.  

For many schools, end of classes will be early May. (Stanford's last day is in June)

The latest word (Dec. 24) was that OWS expect to allocate the rest of the claimed 20M on Dec. 30, for the states to ask for shipments a week later.  

If we're having trouble getting the first 9M doses into arms, what's going to happen in March when 100M shots (50M second & 50M first) may be given.   I don't think we'll be very efficient at that.  (For comparison, in 2019-2020 170M flu shots were given in the entire season.)

75+ represent 59% of the deaths and 6.7% of the cases.  If all cases & deaths of 75+ stop in late March, then we'll be at 1000 deaths/day in the US and 205K cases/day, based on current levels.  There will also be decrease due to vaccinating the 50M non-older people but it is unclear what that will be.  Reducing the remaining cases by 17% (~ 50/(330-30)), that will bring deaths down to 830 per day and cases down to 170K new cases per day.

[teejers1]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

Yeah, if only all schools just "committed" to "stopping the spread" by saying:  "we're done; go home; and good luck out there" then we'd be through this thing in no time!

[teejers1]

It's too late to hope for a commitment from college football to contribute to stopping the spread of Covid-19. 

But Duke Women's Basketball decided to end their season.

Yeah, if only all schools just "committed" to "stopping the spread" by saying:  "we're done; go home; and good luck out there" then we'd be through this thing in no time!