[TrumpCard]

Ruh roh: https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/st...ag2O8qAAAA

Continued progress by Russia, this time on the western end of the Donbas.

[TrumpCard]

Ruh roh: https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/st...ag2O8qAAAA

Continued progress by Russia, this time on the western end of the Donbas.

[Goose]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts...-briefing/
This is a bit "old", but it does contain US government confirmation that the tug Vassily Bekh was hit by a harpoon missile. That had been previously suggested, but with all the conjecture out there it is good to get what confirmation you can.
This transcript also does highlight the remaining issues with the range of the HIMARS missiles we are supplying. The SDO tries to weasel, but it clearly failed. It also does not give a warm fuzzy feeling about either the NASAMS or the 155 mm ammunition delivery dates. The speed of war is real. Hopefully these "contracts" are formalities for items that already exist. If that isn't the case, the time to actually build an NASAMS from scratch could easily be 18 months (given current supply chain problems).

[Goose]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts...-briefing/
This is a bit "old", but it does contain US government confirmation that the tug Vassily Bekh was hit by a harpoon missile. That had been previously suggested, but with all the conjecture out there it is good to get what confirmation you can.
This transcript also does highlight the remaining issues with the range of the HIMARS missiles we are supplying. The SDO tries to weasel, but it clearly failed. It also does not give a warm fuzzy feeling about either the NASAMS or the 155 mm ammunition delivery dates. The speed of war is real. Hopefully these "contracts" are formalities for items that already exist. If that isn't the case, the time to actually build an NASAMS from scratch could easily be 18 months (given current supply chain problems).

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/5-pat...00328.html
Pretty much right on IMHO.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/5-pat...00328.html
Pretty much right on IMHO.

[dabigv13]

The RUSI report is very good and detailed. Worth reading in full.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...al-victory

[dabigv13]

The RUSI report is very good and detailed. Worth reading in full.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...al-victory

[Goose]

The RUSI report is very good and detailed. Worth reading in full.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...al-victory

Agree. Makes a lot of the same points my earlier one did. I wonder if there is some cross-polarization there.

There is one point in both articles where I am pretty sure they are either wrong or conflating two things. The Russians are using communications jammers to prevent the Ukrainians from talking to each other. They are also using jamming GPS and GLONASS(!) in Ukraine. Both articles suggest anti-radiation missiles as a solution. While that could be done, communications jammers are usually easy to geolocate via conventional ESM techniques. They are inherently high duty cycle and high power devices. I would be real surprised if the US didn't have the location of every significant Russian jammer mapped down to the meter. Both the USAF and the Army have aircraft that do this mission very well. The "classic" example is https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/...nsor-grcs/. If you know where the jammer is, a HIMARS can take it out.

Anti-radiation missiles are much more commonly used against radar's that do not operate continuously and are easily moved around. Such radars are also usually defending assets that are located far from the front lines and the anti-radiation missiles are part of an attack well behind the lines. If you look at the Wikipedia page, while they say such missiles can be used against communications jammers, all they talk about are radar targets. This is not to say that Ukraine doesn't need such missiles, but rather that the aren't required (or useful, because they are optimized to attack radars) against communication jammers.

[Goose]

The RUSI report is very good and detailed. Worth reading in full.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...al-victory

Agree. Makes a lot of the same points my earlier one did. I wonder if there is some cross-polarization there.

There is one point in both articles where I am pretty sure they are either wrong or conflating two things. The Russians are using communications jammers to prevent the Ukrainians from talking to each other. They are also using jamming GPS and GLONASS(!) in Ukraine. Both articles suggest anti-radiation missiles as a solution. While that could be done, communications jammers are usually easy to geolocate via conventional ESM techniques. They are inherently high duty cycle and high power devices. I would be real surprised if the US didn't have the location of every significant Russian jammer mapped down to the meter. Both the USAF and the Army have aircraft that do this mission very well. The "classic" example is https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/...nsor-grcs/. If you know where the jammer is, a HIMARS can take it out.

Anti-radiation missiles are much more commonly used against radar's that do not operate continuously and are easily moved around. Such radars are also usually defending assets that are located far from the front lines and the anti-radiation missiles are part of an attack well behind the lines. If you look at the Wikipedia page, while they say such missiles can be used against communications jammers, all they talk about are radar targets. This is not to say that Ukraine doesn't need such missiles, but rather that the aren't required (or useful, because they are optimized to attack radars) against communication jammers.

[Treefence]

400M package to be announced by the US, including 4 more HIMARs systems.  Should be 12 total from the US, and at least 6 M270s.  Still a long what to go, but given how effective Ukraine has been with the HIMARs so far, it's good to see.  Also two senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv, and now Graham is calling for the long range ATACMS.  I wonder if this would allow them to hit the Crimean bridge.

[Treefence]

400M package to be announced by the US, including 4 more HIMARs systems.  Should be 12 total from the US, and at least 6 M270s.  Still a long what to go, but given how effective Ukraine has been with the HIMARs so far, it's good to see.  Also two senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv, and now Graham is calling for the long range ATACMS.  I wonder if this would allow them to hit the Crimean bridge.

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1545464126436265986?s=20&t=wdZHLoHlIOIA_xa8HoMysg[/tweet]

If we keep giving them 4 every week or two that seems like a reasonable pace of uptake and something that will add up. They are already being put to great work destroying Russia's biggest ammo dumps near the front and extending Russia's logistics chain.

[dabigv13]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1545464126436265986?s=20&t=wdZHLoHlIOIA_xa8HoMysg[/tweet]

If we keep giving them 4 every week or two that seems like a reasonable pace of uptake and something that will add up. They are already being put to great work destroying Russia's biggest ammo dumps near the front and extending Russia's logistics chain.

[Goose]

400M package to be announced by the US, including 4 more HIMARs systems.  Should be 12 total from the US, and at least 6 M270s.  Still a long what to go, but given how effective Ukraine has been with the HIMARs so far, it's good to see.  Also two senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv, and now Graham is calling for the long range ATACMS.  I wonder if this would allow them to hit the Crimean bridge.

Yes, it would. Maximum range of 300 km means the could easily reach it from parts of the Kherson Oblast that they control. The distance from the city of Kherson is 235 km, so they can stand back at least 50 km and still hit it.
However, I strongly suspect that at this time they would be told not to do it. The bridge itself is arguably Russian. Crimea is another thing however. Not sure Putin would see a distinction, as he has annexed Crimea, but neither the US nor Ukraine accept that action.

If we give ATACMS  to Ukraine I am sure it would be with the understanding it would be exclusively used to deeply interdict Russian GLOCs in Donbas and possibly Kherson Oblast. There are plenty of targets there. The railroads themselves and ammunition/POL trains would make great targets. So would the ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk. If that works out and Ukraine gets traction in Donbas, then the difficult conversation about Crimea and the fleet base at Sevastopol will need to be had. The latter is just begging for some missiles.

---

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/15..._xa8HoMysg

If we keep giving them 4 every week or two that seems like a reasonable pace of uptake and something that will add up. They are already being put to great work destroying Russia's biggest ammo dumps near the front and extending Russia's logistics chain.

Indeed! Giving 4 a week gives them another 24 or so by the end of August. Unfortunately, that is probably not quite enough to suppress Russian offensive activity but it will put a big dent in it. We also must realize they are going to lose a few. The HIMARS isn't designed to survive a major artillery strike, even a near miss. An M270 is however. Some will also be down for maintenance (we hope, because if not you run them into the ground). 50 units by the end of August would be real nice!

Ukraine has been talking about some offensive activity in August. They have made progress around Kherson Oblast. If they can mount a serious armored (so Russian artillery won't destroy their infantry) threat there, Russia will have to redistribute it's resources. It has shown that it can do that, but only slowly. Such an offensive would take a lot of pressure off Donbas. If this is going to happen, some M270s (and some Gepards. I am being greedy.)going along would be a big help. Naturally, I don't want to be over-optimistic, but given what we have heard, it could, maybe, happen.

[Goose]

400M package to be announced by the US, including 4 more HIMARs systems.  Should be 12 total from the US, and at least 6 M270s.  Still a long what to go, but given how effective Ukraine has been with the HIMARs so far, it's good to see.  Also two senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv, and now Graham is calling for the long range ATACMS.  I wonder if this would allow them to hit the Crimean bridge.

Yes, it would. Maximum range of 300 km means the could easily reach it from parts of the Kherson Oblast that they control. The distance from the city of Kherson is 235 km, so they can stand back at least 50 km and still hit it.
However, I strongly suspect that at this time they would be told not to do it. The bridge itself is arguably Russian. Crimea is another thing however. Not sure Putin would see a distinction, as he has annexed Crimea, but neither the US nor Ukraine accept that action.

If we give ATACMS  to Ukraine I am sure it would be with the understanding it would be exclusively used to deeply interdict Russian GLOCs in Donbas and possibly Kherson Oblast. There are plenty of targets there. The railroads themselves and ammunition/POL trains would make great targets. So would the ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk. If that works out and Ukraine gets traction in Donbas, then the difficult conversation about Crimea and the fleet base at Sevastopol will need to be had. The latter is just begging for some missiles.

---

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/15..._xa8HoMysg

If we keep giving them 4 every week or two that seems like a reasonable pace of uptake and something that will add up. They are already being put to great work destroying Russia's biggest ammo dumps near the front and extending Russia's logistics chain.

Indeed! Giving 4 a week gives them another 24 or so by the end of August. Unfortunately, that is probably not quite enough to suppress Russian offensive activity but it will put a big dent in it. We also must realize they are going to lose a few. The HIMARS isn't designed to survive a major artillery strike, even a near miss. An M270 is however. Some will also be down for maintenance (we hope, because if not you run them into the ground). 50 units by the end of August would be real nice!

Ukraine has been talking about some offensive activity in August. They have made progress around Kherson Oblast. If they can mount a serious armored (so Russian artillery won't destroy their infantry) threat there, Russia will have to redistribute it's resources. It has shown that it can do that, but only slowly. Such an offensive would take a lot of pressure off Donbas. If this is going to happen, some M270s (and some Gepards. I am being greedy.)going along would be a big help. Naturally, I don't want to be over-optimistic, but given what we have heard, it could, maybe, happen.

[Treefence]

Another thing to mention in the recent package from the US, it includes 1000 rounds of gps guided Excalibur rounds for the M777s.  They got a batch of these from Canada back in April, but nice to see them getting more.

[Treefence]

Another thing to mention in the recent package from the US, it includes 1000 rounds of gps guided Excalibur rounds for the M777s.  They got a batch of these from Canada back in April, but nice to see them getting more.

[TrumpCard]

Seeing that the US authorized another 400mm in military aid -- which brings the total to $7.3 billion out of $26.7 billion authorized -- I am wondering when the current allocation will run out.  I assume it'll last at least through the end of the year, but this conflict is looking like it will persist for a while, and, at some point, the US probably will need to re-up.  Plus, if the US is serious about the increased forward presence in Europe, then the US probably will need to authorize an increase in defense spending.  I know there are a lot of people who aren't thrilled about that prospect in the abstract, but given the vital importance of this conflict to global security, I hope we find the fortitude to continue doing what's needed.

[TrumpCard]

Seeing that the US authorized another 400mm in military aid -- which brings the total to $7.3 billion out of $26.7 billion authorized -- I am wondering when the current allocation will run out.  I assume it'll last at least through the end of the year, but this conflict is looking like it will persist for a while, and, at some point, the US probably will need to re-up.  Plus, if the US is serious about the increased forward presence in Europe, then the US probably will need to authorize an increase in defense spending.  I know there are a lot of people who aren't thrilled about that prospect in the abstract, but given the vital importance of this conflict to global security, I hope we find the fortitude to continue doing what's needed.

[Treefence]

Rumors are the recent aid includes HIMARs ammo with the 300km+ range.  Hopefully this is confirmed.

[Treefence]

Rumors are the recent aid includes HIMARs ammo with the 300km+ range.  Hopefully this is confirmed.

[Mick]

Worst is yet to come, according to Vlad the Paler...

Putin threatens Ukraine to agree to terms, or else the worst is yet to come (msn.com)

[Mick]

Worst is yet to come, according to Vlad the Paler...

Putin threatens Ukraine to agree to terms, or else the worst is yet to come (msn.com)

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-win-104300175.html examines the way forward for Ukraine. The author indicates some intention of Ukraine to gain ground in Kherson Oblast, as others have also done. He is indicating much more limited activity than I have seen elsewhere. I think what he describes is more within Ukraine's known capabilities. Whether that will be enough to force Russia to reallocate forces is less clear. Can Ukraine do more than that? I hope so. This is an area where Russia has sent the obsolete T-64 tanks. Obviously they aren't looking at a major threat and a need for an active defense. If Ukraine can deliver such a threat, it could really change the state of play. We shall see what August holds for both sides.

UPDATE: More of the same. https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-ord...23922.html Who knows what will actually happen, if anything, in the South.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-win-104300175.html examines the way forward for Ukraine. The author indicates some intention of Ukraine to gain ground in Kherson Oblast, as others have also done. He is indicating much more limited activity than I have seen elsewhere. I think what he describes is more within Ukraine's known capabilities. Whether that will be enough to force Russia to reallocate forces is less clear. Can Ukraine do more than that? I hope so. This is an area where Russia has sent the obsolete T-64 tanks. Obviously they aren't looking at a major threat and a need for an active defense. If Ukraine can deliver such a threat, it could really change the state of play. We shall see what August holds for both sides.

UPDATE: More of the same. https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-ord...23922.html Who knows what will actually happen, if anything, in the South.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-fight...05106.html This is an element that has been startlingly absent from the Russian ORBAT in the Ukraine conflict. The article discusses the use of the Mainstay in the context of pinpointing ground targets. While it can do this, it isn't it's typical job (and maybe that's why they are practicing). Normally, it is used solely as a fighter direction asset for air defense. It has the capability to target basically everything that flies in Ukraine. Two such units can do this country-wide without needing to overfly Ukrainian territory anywhere. The Russians can do this, we have seen them do it. It should make the Ukrainian air force basically untenable.

To be clear, from what we have seen these aircraft do not directly task S-400 units and have limited (if any) interface to the Russian IAD. Obviously, from the Western point of view restricting the function in this way doesn't make sense and it is tacitly assumed that the Mainstay can indeed transfer targets to the IAD. AFAIK, we haven't seen this happen. It should be noted that administratively these two groups are totally disjoint. This may have more effects than one would think. What we have seen happen is very effective fighter direction that makes life very difficult (and often short) for opposing air forces, at least in exercises. That is what makes the absence of this aircraft from the news up until now very hard to understand.

My conjecture is that the Russians fear that if they use their AEW operating out of Russian (or Belarus, same thing in their view) airspace to direct fighters in the Ukraine, NATO would be justified in using our AEW to do the same operating out of NATO airspace. They may now believe it is appropriate to take such a step, or they may believe we are already doing it so there is nothing to lose. Possibly this is a one-off exercise and we won't see it again. In any case, it could make things much more "interesting" and get us all closer to a wider war. Not Good.

[Goose]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-fight...05106.html This is an element that has been startlingly absent from the Russian ORBAT in the Ukraine conflict. The article discusses the use of the Mainstay in the context of pinpointing ground targets. While it can do this, it isn't it's typical job (and maybe that's why they are practicing). Normally, it is used solely as a fighter direction asset for air defense. It has the capability to target basically everything that flies in Ukraine. Two such units can do this country-wide without needing to overfly Ukrainian territory anywhere. The Russians can do this, we have seen them do it. It should make the Ukrainian air force basically untenable.

To be clear, from what we have seen these aircraft do not directly task S-400 units and have limited (if any) interface to the Russian IAD. Obviously, from the Western point of view restricting the function in this way doesn't make sense and it is tacitly assumed that the Mainstay can indeed transfer targets to the IAD. AFAIK, we haven't seen this happen. It should be noted that administratively these two groups are totally disjoint. This may have more effects than one would think. What we have seen happen is very effective fighter direction that makes life very difficult (and often short) for opposing air forces, at least in exercises. That is what makes the absence of this aircraft from the news up until now very hard to understand.

My conjecture is that the Russians fear that if they use their AEW operating out of Russian (or Belarus, same thing in their view) airspace to direct fighters in the Ukraine, NATO would be justified in using our AEW to do the same operating out of NATO airspace. They may now believe it is appropriate to take such a step, or they may believe we are already doing it so there is nothing to lose. Possibly this is a one-off exercise and we won't see it again. In any case, it could make things much more "interesting" and get us all closer to a wider war. Not Good.

[2006alum]

Putting on my Mod hat for a moment, could folks who use iOS to access the Cardboard let me know whether they can see and post to this thread? We think an embedded tweet in one post might have messed it up, so we're hoping deleting that post fixes it!

[2006alum]

Putting on my Mod hat for a moment, could folks who use iOS to access the Cardboard let me know whether they can see and post to this thread? We think an embedded tweet in one post might have messed it up, so we're hoping deleting that post fixes it!

[BostonCard]

To be clear, the offending post is on the previous page (62), so you should be able to see everything on the last page.

BC

[BostonCard]

To be clear, the offending post is on the previous page (62), so you should be able to see everything on the last page.

BC

[terry]

Putting on my Mod hat for a moment, could folks who use iOS to access the Cardboard let me know whether they can see and post to this thread? We think an embedded tweet in one post might have messed it up, so we're hoping deleting that post fixes it!

A few days ago, I was having a problem viewing this thread using Safari on my MacBook. I couldn't see some posts, I couldn't reply to anything, and I couldn't click on any links. I'm no longer having any problem, so you seem to have fixed it.

[terry]

Putting on my Mod hat for a moment, could folks who use iOS to access the Cardboard let me know whether they can see and post to this thread? We think an embedded tweet in one post might have messed it up, so we're hoping deleting that post fixes it!

A few days ago, I was having a problem viewing this thread using Safari on my MacBook. I couldn't see some posts, I couldn't reply to anything, and I couldn't click on any links. I'm no longer having any problem, so you seem to have fixed it.

[BostonCard]

Terry, try going back one page to see if that still causes a problem.  I think the issue was “solved” when the thread became long enough so that if you go to new posts or the last post, it goes to a different page than the offending post.  I think there is something with an embedded tweet that WebKit (Apple’s rendering engine for Safari and all browsers on iDevices) craps out on. It doesn’t seem to affect Chromium (Chrome and pretty much all other web browsers).

BC

[BostonCard]

Terry, try going back one page to see if that still causes a problem.  I think the issue was “solved” when the thread became long enough so that if you go to new posts or the last post, it goes to a different page than the offending post.  I think there is something with an embedded tweet that WebKit (Apple’s rendering engine for Safari and all browsers on iDevices) craps out on. It doesn’t seem to affect Chromium (Chrome and pretty much all other web browsers).

BC

[terry]

Terry, try going back one page to see if that still causes a problem.  I think the issue was “solved” when the thread became long enough so that if you go to new posts or the last post, it goes to a different page than the offending post.  I think there is something with an embedded tweet that WebKit (Apple’s rendering engine for Safari and all browsers on iDevices) craps out on. It doesn’t seem to affect Chromium (Chrome and pretty much all other web browsers).

BC

I went back to the part of the thread that had been giving me problems. It works fine for me now.

BTW, I have my preferences set for 50 posts per page instead of whatever the default is (20 posts?). So for me, this thread is 25 pages long, not 62 pages. For me, new posts are still being added to the page where I was having problems. The problem I was having seemed to be somewhere around post #1205. But everything is working well now.

[terry]

Terry, try going back one page to see if that still causes a problem.  I think the issue was “solved” when the thread became long enough so that if you go to new posts or the last post, it goes to a different page than the offending post.  I think there is something with an embedded tweet that WebKit (Apple’s rendering engine for Safari and all browsers on iDevices) craps out on. It doesn’t seem to affect Chromium (Chrome and pretty much all other web browsers).

BC

I went back to the part of the thread that had been giving me problems. It works fine for me now.

BTW, I have my preferences set for 50 posts per page instead of whatever the default is (20 posts?). So for me, this thread is 25 pages long, not 62 pages. For me, new posts are still being added to the page where I was having problems. The problem I was having seemed to be somewhere around post #1205. But everything is working well now.

[TrumpCard]

Worst Ukraine news I’ve seen in a while, though not surprising:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/st...zThPkqAAAA

[TrumpCard]

Worst Ukraine news I’ve seen in a while, though not surprising:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/st...zThPkqAAAA