Grading Kate Paye's Performance

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RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - SkiBum80 - 01-30-2026

I've deferred grading Coach P's second season.
As a game like last night doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know.
Going up against a top ten team, firing on all cylinders, without our best all around player, and without our (admittedly flawed) starting point guard,
was not likely to go well regardless who was coaching the sidelines.
But I think from now til end of season, starting with ND, is Coach's Rubicon.
No remaining team we face is in the AP or Coach's top 25 nor has received any votes.
Yes, some good ones, VTech among them.
But others we would hope to solidly outmatch with our talent and assuming good coaching.
So I think this final stretch will be the decisive factor in how our season goes, and reflect a lot on Coach.

So Let's go Card! Let's go Coach!
(And hoping Nunu is able to return quickly)

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BobK - 01-30-2026

Excellent analysis SkiBum
We do have games against Clemson Virginia and Virginia Tech
All three just behind Stanford in Net ranking.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - old spanish trail - 01-30-2026

Did Nunu suffer a concussion last year?

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - TonyLima - 01-30-2026

Always very happy when I provide fodder for a spirited discussion! Thanks.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - crackpot - 01-30-2026

(01-30-2026, 02:21 PM)old spanish trail Wrote: Did Nunu suffer a concussion last year?

I don't recall a concussion, but she badly hurt her back in last year's game at Notre Dame, and couldn't play in the game against Louisville.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Nobadeer - 01-30-2026

We're constantly critiquing KP, who suffers from having followed a legend. In contrast, Coach Smith of LSJU MBB seems to do no wrong by this board, maybe because he was lucky to follow an anti-legend, Haase, who led the worst era of LSJU MBB in ~ 40 years!

Yet MBB (14-7) and WBB (15-7) are quite similar in W/L record, both having a pair of wins over ranked teams, and four losses by single digits. Per ESPN, MBB and WBB are also fairly similar in most stats. W BB scores ~ 70 ppg compared to 75 for MBB, and has more rebounds per game (41.5 to 35.6 for MBB) but more turnovers than MBB (15.1 vs 11.2 - maybe due to many more freshmen minutes?). Assists and steals are pretty much equal.

WBB shooting is slightly better overall (43.4 % vs. 42.3 for MBB) and better on FTs (79.3% to 72% for MBB [Rohosy?]; a bit worse on threes (30% vs. 34% for MBB)

MBB is blessed with Okorie, a transcendent/"generational" backcourt talent the likes of which we haven't seen since Brevin Knight-Candace Wiggins-Kate Starbird. WBB doesn't have that but the roster has some solid upperclass players, and freshmen who could become great players. But in the meantime, hey, Kyle is a genius, and KP is no better than any of us would be!

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - paloalto - 01-31-2026

Human nature. Higher expectations for WBB than MBB. During earnings season the stock market almost always gauges stocks by comparing actual to estimated earnings. I think the same applies to sports.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - norcard10 - 02-01-2026

(01-30-2026, 06:45 PM)Nobadeer Wrote: We're constantly critiquing KP, who suffers from having followed a legend. In contrast, Coach Smith of LSJU MBB seems to do no wrong by this board, maybe because he was lucky to follow an anti-legend, Haase, who led the worst era of LSJU MBB in ~ 40 years!

Yet MBB (14-7) and WBB (15-7) are quite similar in W/L record, both having a pair of wins over ranked teams, and four losses by single digits. Per ESPN, MBB and WBB are also fairly similar in most stats. W BB scores ~ 70 ppg compared to 75 for MBB, and has more rebounds per game (41.5 to 35.6 for MBB) but more turnovers than MBB (15.1 vs 11.2 - maybe due to many more freshmen minutes?). Assists and steals are pretty much equal.

WBB shooting is slightly better overall (43.4 % vs. 42.3 for MBB) and better on FTs (79.3% to 72% for MBB [Rohosy?]; a bit worse on threes (30% vs. 34% for MBB)

MBB is blessed with Okorie, a transcendent/"generational" backcourt talent the likes of which we haven't seen since Brevin Knight-Candace Wiggins-Kate Starbird. WBB doesn't have that but the roster has some solid upperclass players, and freshmen who could become great players. But in the meantime, hey, Kyle is a genius, and KP is no better than any of us would be!

Take a look at Duke MBB where there was no drop off. That is the expectation especially with Stanford WBB given the women's recruits they are getting relative to MBB. Okorie is very good - not clear if he is a "generational talent". Games agianst Cal, Miami, Duke, Virgina were particularly ugly. We've had higher profile talent including Ziaire Williams that might have done a lot better under Kyle Smith vs Haase.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BillBradley - 02-01-2026

(01-31-2026, 08:15 PM)paloalto Wrote: Human nature. Higher expectations for WBB than MBB. During earnings season the stock market almost always gauges stocks by comparing actual to estimated earnings. I think the same applies to sports.

Agree. At least for me though, my expectations aren't really about past performance. My expectations are based on the level of talent that each coach has to work with. Okorie is special, but after that there isn't much else on the men's team even with Okpara. The men have both skill and athleticism deficiencies that are insurmountable over the course of the season. Way different than Haase's teams with multiple NBA level players in his years. The women's team is different than that, IMO. By no means do I expect a level of performance as our team that had Cam, Lexie, Haley, Kiana...a mostly WNBA starting lineup. I do, however, think this team (when healthy) should be a top-20 team. By all the rating systems, our women's team is in the mid-30's, and it's been that way for quite some time. I don't see the team improving, with similar thinking as other posters who callout repeated issues like offensive stagnation, poor passing, and ball control (which, BTW, the issue in my mind isn't just counting the number of turnovers it's a level deeper - it's the number of live ball turnovers that result in points for the other team). I just have a more positive read on our players, and I believe the talent is there to be a Top-20 team. Others might believe the talent is not there, too many freshmen minutes, etc. and Kate should get a pass for this season too. I get that, just don't agree with it.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Hieronymus - 02-01-2026

(02-01-2026, 12:19 PM)BillBradley Wrote:
(01-31-2026, 08:15 PM)paloalto Wrote: Human nature. Higher expectations for WBB than MBB. During earnings season the stock market almost always gauges stocks by comparing actual to estimated earnings. I think the same applies to sports.
Agree. At least for me though, my expectations aren't really about past performance. My expectations are based on the level of talent that each coach has to work with. Okorie is special, but after that there isn't much else on the men's team even with Okpara. The men have both skill and athleticism deficiencies that are insurmountable over the course of the season. Way different than Haase's teams with multiple NBA level players in his years. The women's team is different than that, IMO. By no means do I expect a level of performance as our team that had Cam, Lexie, Haley, Kiana...a mostly WNBA starting lineup. I do, however, think this team (when healthy) should be a top-20 team. By all the rating systems, our women's team is in the mid-30's, and it's been that way for quite some time. I don't see the team improving, with similar thinking as other posters who callout repeated issues like offensive stagnation, poor passing, and ball control (which, BTW, the issue in my mind isn't just counting the number of turnovers it's a level deeper - it's the number of live ball turnovers that result in points for the other team). I just have a more positive read on our players, and I believe the talent is there to be a Top-20 team. Others might believe the talent is not there, too many freshmen minutes, etc. and Kate should get a pass for this season too. I get that, just don't agree with it.

And they no longer have Okpara - out for the year. The men had a shot at the tournament with him and no chance without. They have no depth to cover his loss. No genius coaching strategy is going to fix that. Now you can fault the lack of depth, but there is no solving his absence this year.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Card10Fan - 02-09-2026

A great example of what I believe Stanford could/should have done before simply hiring coach Paye is by look at Vanderbilt.

Shea Ralph played at Uconn for Geno, was a longtime assistant coach under Geno (13ish years). Took an opportunity to be the head coach at Vandy. Now in year 5, she has Vandy as a top 5 team in the country and they will be making their third straight NCAA tourney. PROVEN RESULTS.
So when Geno retires and he recommends to the AD Shea Ralph be the next UConn HC (as some speculate), proven results show that she'd be a great hire because she has already shown she is a great head coach.

Instead Stanford followed the route of Tennessee (a once storied program like us) by hiring Holly Warlick someone with no head coaching experience. We all know how that turned out in the end. Since her firing, Warlick has not landed another head coaching job. The Lady Vols have not been back to a Final 4 in almost 20 years either.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BobK - 02-09-2026

Tara was 42-14 at Idaho In Her first head coaching job.
Geno was 26-28 first two years at UConn his first head coaching job

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Papa John - 02-09-2026

At UConn Geno replaced Jean Balthaser, who went 52-88 the three years before Geno arrived, so 26-28 was a h.uge improvement. Geno went 17-11 his third year and made the NCAA tourney in year 4.

After Idaho, Tara VanDerveer went 110-37 at Ohio State, which made it to the Elite Eight in 1985. Somehow Andy Geiger convinced TVD to come to Stanford and replace Dottie McCrea, who had a record of 14-42 her final two seasons. Stanford went 27-29 TVD's first two seasons, very similar to Geno and a h.uge improvement over DMC, and Stanford made the NCAA tournament in TVD's third season here.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - MV72018 - 02-10-2026

(02-09-2026, 09:21 PM)BobK Wrote: Tara was 42-14 at Idaho In Her first head coaching job.
Geno was 26-28 first two years at UConn his first head coaching job

And your point is what, exactly?

Nothing can be concluded from just the facts you cite, since no evidence has been provided about what talent each was left with upon assuming the head coaching job.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - stopandpop - 02-10-2026

(02-09-2026, 08:17 PM)Card10Fan Wrote: A great example of what I believe Stanford could/should have done before simply hiring coach Paye is by look at Vanderbilt.

Shea Ralph played at Uconn for Geno, was a longtime assistant coach under Geno (13ish years). Took an opportunity to be the head coach at Vandy. Now in year 5, she has Vandy as a top 5 team in the country and they will be making their third straight NCAA tourney. PROVEN RESULTS.
So when Geno retires and he recommends to the AD Shea Ralph be the next UConn HC (as some speculate), proven results show that she'd be a great hire because she has already shown she is a great head coach.

Instead Stanford followed the route of Tennessee (a once storied program like us) by hiring Holly Warlick someone with no head coaching experience. We all know how that turned out in the end. Since her firing, Warlick has not landed another head coaching job. The Lady Vols have not been back to a Final 4 in almost 20 years either.

That is why (in the event Coach Paye can't get the job done and is fired), Stanford must look for a highly successful (current) head coach with proven results in turning around other programs, and who WANTS the challenge of bringing Stanford back to an elite program. Promoting from within is not the way to achieve this goal. Of course, what if the AD didn't have that goal of bringing Stanford WBB back to where it was, what would the future of the program be?

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Hieronymus - 02-10-2026

Stanford (still?) on the last 4 in line in ESPN’s bracketology. Net ranking has slipped to 42 which would be 11 seed territory - ESPN has the same 11 seed. So best case right now, they are on the bubble and just barely hanging on. The season isn’t a loss yet, but it is on life support.

Incredibly all 4 last in teams are ACC. 3 of the last 6 games are against these last in teams - UVA, VT and Clemson. I expect they have to at least beat Miami, FSU, and SMU plus 1 of the other three games. They may need to win 2 of those 3; so at least 4-2 plus 1-2 ACC tourney wins or 5-1 with 0-1 ACC tourney wins down the stretch or they are likely out. The good news is the 3 tougher games are all at home, and the 3 easier away teams have been terrible at home (2-16).

3-3 I think means having to win the ACC tournament or at least coming really close.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BillBradley - 02-10-2026

(02-10-2026, 03:47 PM)Hieronymus Wrote: Stanford (still?) on the last 4 in line in ESPN’s bracketology. Net ranking has slipped to 42 which would be 11 seed territory - ESPN has the same 11 seed. So best case right now, they are on the bubble and just barely hanging on. The season isn’t a loss yet, but it is on life support.

Incredibly all 4 last in teams are ACC. 3 of the last 6 games are against these last in teams - UVA, VT and Clemson. I expect they have to at least beat Miami, FSU, and SMU plus 1 of the other three games. They may need to win 2 of those 3; so at least 4-2 plus 1-2 ACC tourney wins or 5-1 with 0-1 ACC tourney wins down the stretch or they are likely out. The good news is the 3 tougher games are all at home, and the 3 easier away teams have been terrible at home (2-16).

3-3 I think means having to win the ACC tournament or at least coming really close.

I'm a little less bullish. I think to be safe (conservatively), they need to win all 6 and then lose to a ranked team in the tourney. If they go 5-1, and lose to a ranked team in the tourney, they will be in danger of not making it. If they go 4-2 and take another loss in the tourney, I don't think they make it.

Can't believe this is where things stand. Bad losses to FGCU, Ga Tech, and Cal really hurt.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Card10Fan - 02-10-2026

(02-09-2026, 09:21 PM)BobK Wrote: Tara was 42-14 at Idaho In Her first head coaching job.
Geno was 26-28 first two years at UConn his first head coaching job

We are not Idaho and this is not building a program from the ground up. Stanford now has 10 top 100 ESPN recruits, 4 top 20 recruits on the roster. We are not starting from scratch. No reason to think or expect winning should be years down the road.

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - BobK - 02-10-2026

I was responding to should hire a coach with experience not to the season
This season to me a 30 year season ticket holder is a disaster right now. Playing two solid teams this weekend probably won’t help us at all

RE: Grading Kate Paye's 1st Season - Griffins78 - 02-10-2026

(02-10-2026, 04:51 PM)BobK Wrote: I was responding to should hire a coach with experience not to the season
This season to me a 30 year season ticket holder is a disaster right now. Playing two solid teams this weekend probably won’t help us at all

I agree. How about Lindy?